*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[MasterLeong]

OCBC says loans growth at Chongqing branch tripled y-o-y in Nov
By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 13, 2017 : 12:19 PM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 13): OCBC Bank’s business in Chongqing has received a strong boost from the Chongqing Connectivity Initiative (CCI), in the one year since the unveiling of the third government-to-government bilateral project between Singapore and China.

The increased business activity arising from OCBC’s collaborative efforts has led to a significant boost in loans growth which tripled year-on-year in November 2016 at its Chongqing branch operated by wholly-owned banking subsidiary OCBC Wing Hang China.

The CCI promotes cooperation between the two cities of Singapore and Chongqing on multiple fronts including financial services.

Leveraging on the initiative, OCBC has successfully signed partnership agreements with local financial institutions to collaborate in a broad range of business areas and deepened relationships with leading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to meet their financing and business expansion needs.

OCBC says the growth, with strong credit quality, was broad-based across the key sectors of the Chongqing economy.

In Nov, a year after the launch of the CCI, OCBC Wing Hang China was ranked top among 15 leading foreign banks in Chongqing in terms of customer loans growth.

In Jan 2016, OCBC Bank entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Chongqing Financial Affairs Office of the Chongqing municipal government in January 2016.

In May, the bank entered into an agreement with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (CRCB) to cooperate across a range of business areas.

In July, OCBC Wing Hang China inked an MOU with the Chongqing branch of China Construction Bank (CCB) to partner CCB in cross-border financing, investment banking, asset custody and infrastructure financing.

In Nov, OCBC Bank, in partnership with the Chongqing branch of Ping An Bank, a commercial bank headquartered in Shenzhen, China, provided Chongqing Yuelai Investment Group with a three-year US$30 million working capital loan for business expansion.

 

[MasterLeong]

Skies remain overcast for M1
By Michelle Zhu / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 13, 2017 : 11:13 AM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 13): CIMB Securities continues to keep its “hold” call on M1 Limited, Singapore’s smallest telco, as it lowers the stock’s target price estimate to $1.90 from $2.10 previously.

In a Wednesday report, analyst Foong Choong Chen projects M1 to post flat service revenue in FY17F, with mobile revenues falling 1.8% mainly due to lower international roaming/voice usage contributions in addition to negative effects from the previous year’s SIM-only plans and some downtrading activities.

He also forecasts M1’s EBITDA to decline by 14.8% in FY17-20F as a result of TPG Telcom’s entry as Singapore’s fourth telco.

(See also: TPG Telecom wins race to become Singapore’s fourth telco)

“Given the high degree of uncertainty, we have run a scenario analysis based on 5-15% average revenue per user (ARPU) impact across FY17-20F, which we believe is a realistic range. Assuming a 5%/15% ARPU impact (bull/bear case), we forecast M1’s EBITDA falling 6.7%/22.8% (core EPS: -16.5%/-45.4%) across the 3-year period,” adds Foong.

“While a bigger impact is not impossible, [we estimate] an even more aggressive price undercutting from TPG could push EBITDA breakeven for its Singapore mobile business beyond 7 years.”

Following a recent meeting with M1, the analyst has raised the stock’s capex assumptions for FY17-18F by 7-8% to $140 million and $130 million respectively as the telco suggests continued fibre investments to drive its Enterprise Fixed Services business growth as well as meet its mobile backhaul needs.

“A good entry point would be below our bear case fair value of $1.56 and exit point above our bull case fair value of $2.18,” he concludes.

As at 10.56am, shares of M1 are trading flat at $2.08.

 

[MasterLeong]

Another one bites the dust

ML I think sometimes u should post troll recommendations also
You know
Just to make it more interesting

Then Dunid scared ppl undercut also cause is undercut troll posting lmao

if i do troll stuff... then very soon this thread will be gone...

this thread really is for serious value investors ba hahaha

 

[MasterLeong]

What's ST best price based on past performance?

u can take a look at singtel 5 year chart

but maybe looking at PE ratio and dividend yield is better

 

[Retireready]

Mai like that say, more than willing to treat him Kopi or Makan.

Another one bites the dust

ML I think sometimes u should post troll recommendations also
You know
Just to make it more interesting

Then Dunid scared ppl undercut also cause is undercut troll posting lmao

 

[Retireready]

Roger that

If u want to bet on this industry, safer to pick SCI and KC
The rest are very speculative
I already took profits on SCI and KC, i expect them to post weak 2016/17 earnings

 

[orhanzi]

i think some ppl fail to undercut but to only miss the boat

 

[MasterLeong]

Still holding. Will add more if come back 1.5

FCL ah?

I think now many people know that FCL is good, unlikely will see 1.5 again

when it was 1.5, FCL was really a good buy due to the 30% discount to book... high recurring income from its 4 reits, but on the down side FCL is very high geared

http://www.sharesinv.com/TQ5/

as the price has gone up, dividend yield has fall from 5.5% to 5.2%... so maybe FCL will go to around 5% yield then kinda harder for it go higher unless got major news

 

[MasterLeong]

Roger that

if u really like the oil and gas industry, go study KC and SCI first... their business so wide and complex... really not easy to master these two counters... but its a good segment to learn as they are blue chips

 

[MasterLeong]

i think some ppl fail to undercut but to only miss the boat

during the reits sell down in late 2016 many people were saying reits could drop 20-50%... end up reits only fell 10-15% from peak... then 2017 recovery came riao

 

[Retireready]

I bought SCI at 2.61 sold off at 2.80, panic sell and now it shoots past 3 dollars mark, regrets but lesson learnt, now like too high Liao.

if u really like the oil and gas industry, go study KC and SCI first... their business so wide and complex... really not easy to master these two counters... but its a good segment to learn as they are blue chips

 

[[M]aiev]

IN BEFORE NO 1.70 NO SELL !

 

[MasterLeong]

I bought SCI at 2.61 sold off at 2.80, panic sell and now it shoots past 3 dollars mark, regrets but lesson learnt, now like too high Liao.

U traded sci made a profit ok what
Maybe just that u never set your TP and SL properly

At 2.61 entry maybe could had been 2.30 SL and 2.90 TP something like that, if 60% or higher chance it TP u will make a profit in the long run

Do note that SCI and KC are more of trading stocks as their earnings are cyclical in nature

 

[MasterLeong]

IN BEFORE NO 1.70 NO SELL !

Fcl? Hahahahaha

 

[MasterLeong]

in regards to ezion... their earnings are estimated to be weak for 2016 and 2017 full year
like 1/3 of past levels only....

gearing still high at like 80%+ levels...

valuations is super cheap at below half price to book value

I would avoid this counter... as there is no dividends, its a pure turn around play in hopes of realizing full nav... and the odds maybe low... say less than 20-30% chance

 

[MasterLeong]

CIMB report on CDG... my only buy pick left as telco reits banks all ran up already


ComfortDelGro
Stable outlook for 2017
■ Better Singapore bus margin and operating cash flow under the GCM.
■ Improving Singapore rail profit on the commencement of DTL stage III operations.
■ M&A activities to drive net profit growth of overseas bus businesses.
■ Competition pressure from Uber and Grab in the taxi business likely manageable.
■ Strong balance sheet; decent FY16-18F dividend yield of 3.9-4.7%.
Well-diversified land transport play; overall stable outlook in 2017
Given the group’s well-diversified business profile, we expect an overall stable outlook
for ComfortDelGro in 2017, underpinned by 1) anticipated better Singapore bus margin
under the government contracting model (GCM), 2) improving rail profit from Downtown
Line (DTL) stage III operations, and 3) the acquisition of an additional stake in
ComfortDelGro Cabcharge (CDC). We expect ComfortDelGro’s taxi idling rate to stay
benign in 2017 due to the group active fleet management.
Singapore bus: first full-year benefits from bus reform
2017 will be the first full year of the GCM (effective Sep 16). Key benefits of the GCM vs.
the old model include its 1) cost-indexed feature, and 2) asset-light nature. Referring to
similar bus contracting models in other countries, we project a higher EBIT margin of 7%
for Singapore bus under the GCM vs. a 1.6-3% margin under the old model; this leads to
a 54% yoy gain in group Singapore bus EBIT to S$54m in FY17F (FY16F: S$35m).
Singapore rail: improving profitability on DTL stage III operations
Since the commencement of preparation works in 2012, the DTL has always been lossmaking,
dragging down the group’s overall rail EBIT from S$21m-28m in FY09-11 to
S$3m-8m in FY13-15. With stage III due for completion in Sep 17, we expect the DTL to
finally achieve a turnaround in 2H17 and group FY17F rail EBIT to reach S$12m, a
100% yoy gain over FY16F’s S$6m. We forecast group rail EBIT to grow by another
58% to S$19m in FY18F due to the full-year contribution from DTL stage III.
Overseas bus: bottomline growth supported by M&A activity
Due to the adverse translation from the weakened £, we expect the group’s overseas
bus revenue and EBIT (in S$ value) to contract further in FY17F, by 4.5% and 3.1% yoy,
respectively. Despite the anticipated lower revenue and EBIT, we are optimistic that the
group’s overseas bus business will see low-single-digit net profit growth in FY17F due to
the expected positive financial impact from the acquisition of the additional 49% stake in
CDC (we expect the acquisition to be concluded in 1Q17).
Taxi: competition pressure from Uber, Grab likely manageable
We expect ComfortDelGro to maintain a low taxi idling rate in FY17F given the group’s
active fleet management. ComfortDelGro should be able to keep its taxi revenue and
operating profit in FY17F at the FY16F level as we expect the weakness from a possible
declining taxi fleet and positive rental growth from taxi renewal to largely offset each
other. We do not expect ComfortDelGro, being the Singapore taxi market leader, to
follow its weaker peer Trans-Cab’s move to cut taxi rental.
Maintain Add, with unchanged DCF-based target price of S$2.91
We like ComfortDelGro for its diversified business profile, strong balance sheet (S$259m
net cash as at end-3Q16) and proven overseas M&A growth strategy. We forecast
decent FY16-18F yield of 3.9-4.7%, based on incremental payout ratio of 66-70% (FY15:
64%). More overseas M&As are a key re-rating catalyst; stiffer competition is a key risk.

 

[Retireready]

Will read up more then, not too sure about those TP and SL meaning lol, thank you for your prompt response!

U traded sci made a profit ok what
Maybe just that u never set your TP and SL properly

At 2.61 entry maybe could had been 2.30 SL and 2.90 TP something like that, if 60% or higher chance it TP u will make a profit in the long run

Do note that SCI and KC are more of trading stocks as their earnings are cyclical in nature

 

[[M]aiev]

Will read up more then, not too sure about those TP and SL meaning lol, thank you for your prompt response!

if u want to hoot any financial asset, make sure it has more potential upside and limited downside hor.



SCI if 2.3 is mai tu liao.

 

[Retireready]

Okie, thank you senpai

aiev;105778667]if u want to hoot any financial asset, make sure it has more potential upside and limited downside hor.



SCI if 2.3 is mai tu liao.

 

[MasterLeong]

the cimb report on CDG damn detailed, those who are vested or plan to be vest... good to pick it up and read