*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[MasterLeong]

Will read up more then, not too sure about those TP and SL meaning lol, thank you for your prompt response!

TP = take profit
SL = stop loss

example if I buy SCI at 2.70

TP 3.00 and SL 2.40

if I believe there is a 70% chance SCI will go up instead of go down.. it would be a profitable trade

however this example is online for trading stocks

for dividend stocks like telcos and reits, I normally do not put SL... but instead will buy more as it drops

 

[[M]aiev]

TP = take profit
SL = stop loss

example if I buy SCI at 2.70

TP 3.00 and SL 2.40

if I believe there is a 70% chance SCI will go up instead of go down.. it would be a profitable trade

however this example is online for trading stocks

for dividend stocks like telcos and reits, I normally do not put SL... but instead will buy more as it drops

Yeah, that one i bo set sl; jitao DCA-ed if drop like 20% at least.

 

[MasterLeong]

M1 and SH both up 1.5-3% today as they seal their alliance

machiam romance of 3 kingdom sia

liu bei (Starhub) combine forces with sun quan (M1) to fight evil Cao Cao (Singtel)

 

[Shion]

Solid stock in the long run. Defensive.

CIMB report on CDG... my only buy pick left as telco reits banks all ran up already


ComfortDelGro
Stable outlook for 2017
■ Better Singapore bus margin and operating cash flow under the GCM.
■ Improving Singapore rail profit on the commencement of DTL stage III operations.
■ M&A activities to drive net profit growth of overseas bus businesses.
■ Competition pressure from Uber and Grab in the taxi business likely manageable.
■ Strong balance sheet; decent FY16-18F dividend yield of 3.9-4.7%.
Well-diversified land transport play; overall stable outlook in 2017
Given the group’s well-diversified business profile, we expect an overall stable outlook
for ComfortDelGro in 2017, underpinned by 1) anticipated better Singapore bus margin
under the government contracting model (GCM), 2) improving rail profit from Downtown
Line (DTL) stage III operations, and 3) the acquisition of an additional stake in
ComfortDelGro Cabcharge (CDC). We expect ComfortDelGro’s taxi idling rate to stay
benign in 2017 due to the group active fleet management.
Singapore bus: first full-year benefits from bus reform
2017 will be the first full year of the GCM (effective Sep 16). Key benefits of the GCM vs.
the old model include its 1) cost-indexed feature, and 2) asset-light nature. Referring to
similar bus contracting models in other countries, we project a higher EBIT margin of 7%
for Singapore bus under the GCM vs. a 1.6-3% margin under the old model; this leads to
a 54% yoy gain in group Singapore bus EBIT to S$54m in FY17F (FY16F: S$35m).
Singapore rail: improving profitability on DTL stage III operations
Since the commencement of preparation works in 2012, the DTL has always been lossmaking,
dragging down the group’s overall rail EBIT from S$21m-28m in FY09-11 to
S$3m-8m in FY13-15. With stage III due for completion in Sep 17, we expect the DTL to
finally achieve a turnaround in 2H17 and group FY17F rail EBIT to reach S$12m, a
100% yoy gain over FY16F’s S$6m. We forecast group rail EBIT to grow by another
58% to S$19m in FY18F due to the full-year contribution from DTL stage III.
Overseas bus: bottomline growth supported by M&A activity
Due to the adverse translation from the weakened £, we expect the group’s overseas
bus revenue and EBIT (in S$ value) to contract further in FY17F, by 4.5% and 3.1% yoy,
respectively. Despite the anticipated lower revenue and EBIT, we are optimistic that the
group’s overseas bus business will see low-single-digit net profit growth in FY17F due to
the expected positive financial impact from the acquisition of the additional 49% stake in
CDC (we expect the acquisition to be concluded in 1Q17).
Taxi: competition pressure from Uber, Grab likely manageable
We expect ComfortDelGro to maintain a low taxi idling rate in FY17F given the group’s
active fleet management. ComfortDelGro should be able to keep its taxi revenue and
operating profit in FY17F at the FY16F level as we expect the weakness from a possible
declining taxi fleet and positive rental growth from taxi renewal to largely offset each
other. We do not expect ComfortDelGro, being the Singapore taxi market leader, to
follow its weaker peer Trans-Cab’s move to cut taxi rental.
Maintain Add, with unchanged DCF-based target price of S$2.91
We like ComfortDelGro for its diversified business profile, strong balance sheet (S$259m
net cash as at end-3Q16) and proven overseas M&A growth strategy. We forecast
decent FY16-18F yield of 3.9-4.7%, based on incremental payout ratio of 66-70% (FY15:
64%). More overseas M&As are a key re-rating catalyst; stiffer competition is a key risk.

 

[EvilPaladin]

M1 and SH both up 1.5-3% today as they seal their alliance

machiam romance of 3 kingdom sia

liu bei (Starhub) combine forces with sun quan (M1) to fight evil Cao Cao (Singtel)

indeed, 共同抗敌

 

[Perisher]

M1 and SH both up 1.5-3% today as they seal their alliance

machiam romance of 3 kingdom sia

liu bei (Starhub) combine forces with sun quan (M1) to fight evil Cao Cao (Singtel)

Like that I know the ending liao... Sima Yi (TPG) take over all 3's market share from within and crushes it's foes.

 

[MasterLeong]

Like that I know the ending liao... Sima Yi (TPG) take over all 3's market share from within and crushes it's foes.

Maybe we should put our money on sima yi hahahaha

 

[[M]aiev]

Maybe we should put our money on sima yi hahahaha

shima yi is good; somemore injured in the battlefield(tio sell down) !

 

[Shion]

Like that I know the ending liao... Sima Yi (TPG) take over all 3's market share from within and crushes it's foes.

Only seeing the power control crushed during 五胡 some 50 years later

 

[Takodoro]

Like that I know the ending liao... Sima Yi (TPG) take over all 3's market share from within and crushes it's foes.

INB4 TPG is Meng Huo, ganna thrash by M1 (Liu Bei)

M1 more than Liu bei, smallest of the 3 kingdom.

 

[Takodoro]

Only seeing the power control crushed during 五胡 some 50 years later

Then another few hundred years of warring before the emergence of Tang Dynasty!

 

[evilbdboi]

INB4 TPG is Meng Huo, ganna thrash by M1 (Liu Bei)

M1 more than Liu bei, smallest of the 3 kingdom.

regardless of how many telcos in Singapore, it can be 10 or 20, singtel does not care
it will lower prices until it has 50% mobile market share and until all the telcos call for truce.
the other 3 telcos will have to fight among themselves for the rest of the 50% market.

Sad but true

 

[Takodoro]

Singpost dropping....thanks I listened to shifu.

 

[MasterLeong]

Singpost dropping....thanks I listened to shifu.

I think singpost drop or up... mostly is short term volatility

must see if they really take a big write of this year or not... they need to clear off all the worms

 

[MasterLeong]

Singpost dropping....thanks I listened to shifu.

when did u sell off all your singpost? gong xi gong xi

 

[MasterLeong]

regardless of how many telcos in Singapore, it can be 10 or 20, singtel does not care
it will lower prices until it has 50% mobile market share and until all the telcos call for truce.
the other 3 telcos will have to fight among themselves for the rest of the 50% market.

Sad but true

that's why often the safest and low risk bet is to pick the market leader like singtel

however low risk low returns... but getting 4.5% yield or higher is not bad still ^^

 

[[M]aiev]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/private-equity-pushes-warehouse-owner-toward-biggest-asia-buyout

 

[Takodoro]

M1 testing resistance......if STI chiong, may have rising tide to break....then need to wait to see whether it fall along with STI for clear indication......

 

[MasterLeong]

The Call
3 developer picks to ride on as property supply overhang passes
By Jude Chan / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 13, 2017 : 3:53 PM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 13): CIMB is keeping its “overweight” call on Singapore developers on the back of attractive valuations and growth opportunities as the supply overhang passes.

The research house believes there is “little downside risk” as the sector is trading at a 40% discount to revalued net asset valuation (RNAV), close to 1 standard deviation below the mean.

“With low gearing and deep capacity for reinvestment, we think that developers are well paced to tap into new opportunities,” says CIMB lead analyst Lock Mun Yee in a Wednesday report.

“We think potential key catalysts that would spur share prices are landbanking for growth, the office sector declining to trough and M&A opportunities,” she adds.

Here are CIMB’s top 3 Singapore developer picks as the light at the end of the property tunnel beckons.

UOL Group

Trading at a 36% discount to RNAV, UOL is CIMB’s top pick among developers.

CIMB has an “add” rating on UOL with a target price of $7.96.

“UOL has a high recurring income base, underpinned by rentals, hotel operations and investment holdings,” says Lock.

In addition, Lock adds that potential corporate exercises as UOL raises its total deemed stake in associate UIC to 49.63% could boost value and narrow its discount to RNAV.

As at 3.30pm, UOL is trading 5 cents higher at $6.29.

City Developments

While City Dev’s Singapore residential earnings has slowed down, CIMB believes an acceleration in overseas contributions from China and the UK could spur earnings growth.

CIMB has an “add” rating on City Developments with a target price of $10.40.

“In addition, City Developments’ active capital recycling and low gearing would enable the group to tap into new investment opportunities,” says Lock.

As at 3.40pm, City Developments is trading 13 cents higher at $8.86.

CapitaLand

CIMB believes CapitaLand’s ROE-boosting capital recycling activities should boost its RNAV in the medium term. The stock is currently trading at 40% discount to RNAV, and

CIMB has an “add” rating on CapitaLand with a target price of $4.17.

“CapitaLand has a four-pronged strategy in place to drive growth by strengthening its core businesses, evolving its business model to real estate investment and operating platform, expanding AUM and fee income, as well as staying relevant in the real estate of the future,” says Lock.

As at 3.48pm, CapitaLand is trading 3 cents higher at $3.16.

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[MasterLeong]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/private-equity-pushes-warehouse-owner-toward-biggest-asia-buyout

wow, power of GLP~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!