*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[MasterLeong]

Would like to understand why do you want to buy more MCT instead of the other 2 comm trust? I did a comparison between the 3 CT as below, am I right to say FCT looks the most delicious? Not only it has the lowest PB but also the highest yield. The only bad thing is its low volume and market cap. Then between MCT & CMT, MCT PB is higher because it has a higher RoA & RoE? BTW which is more important for a REIT?


Others please feel free to chip in your thoughts. Tks.

MCT/ CMT/ FCT
Yield 5.76/ 5.65/ 7.77
PB 1.09/ 0.88/ 0.82
RoA 5.86/ 3.91/ 3.47
RoE 9.62/ 5.51/ 5.85

Yes FCT the market cap is low, but still under STI 40 Mid Cap list

http://www.sharesinv.com/prices/index-ftse-st-mid-cap/indicators

liquidity also lower than blue chips for sure

 

[spiritGate]

Jia lat Liao Sia CEO no confidence in her company. Very bad sign

She keep selling her shares

Sent from Sony E6853 using GAGT

 

[MasterLeong]

Would like to understand why do you want to buy more MCT instead of the other 2 comm trust? I did a comparison between the 3 CT as below, am I right to say FCT looks the most delicious? Not only it has the lowest PB but also the highest yield. The only bad thing is its low volume and market cap. Then between MCT & CMT, MCT PB is higher because it has a higher RoA & RoE? BTW which is more important for a REIT?


Others please feel free to chip in your thoughts. Tks.

MCT/ CMT/ FCT
Yield 5.76/ 5.65/ 7.77
PB 1.09/ 0.88/ 0.82
RoA 5.86/ 3.91/ 3.47
RoE 9.62/ 5.51/ 5.85

if just base on 1st glance...
1) must have strong parent (capitaland,fraser,maple family) with solid track record
2) PB 1 times or less (if asset quality is super good, 5-10% premium is fine)
3) decent dividend yield (currently my portfolio of reits my yield on cost is around 5.5-6%)
4) not too highly geared (40% or higher is red flag) that it will need rights issue immediately

earnings is not applicable as it factors in stuff like depreciation, forex etc
so ROA/ROE also not so accurate

 

[MasterLeong]

Master Leong, how would you differentiate FCT and MCT? Can I just get one of them. MCT looks like in a very sweet spot with less of the underperforming malls of FCT.

FCT in my view is more of a pure retail play
do note that causeway point is near half of their portfolio, so you will be betting on it continuing to be a key in the near future

 

[MasterLeong]

Master Leong, how would you differentiate FCT and MCT? Can I just get one of them. MCT looks like in a very sweet spot with less of the underperforming malls of FCT.

Whereas MCT is more of a diversified play

http://www.mapletreecommercialtrust.com/en/Asset-Portfolio/Portfolio-Overview.aspx

Business Park, Office, Shopping mall..



the secret play for MCT is that its market cap is above 4 bil, so I am betting on being upgraded into a blue chip next year... its either MCT or suntec going up

while YZJ and SIAE market cap has fallen below 4 bil, so either 1 or both will be kicked out


Previously my bet on CCT becoming blue chip came true and I got paid off well, so I hope this time I can be right again

 

[MasterLeong]

Master Leong, how would you differentiate FCT and MCT? Can I just get one of them. MCT looks like in a very sweet spot with less of the underperforming malls of FCT.

if I really have to pick 1 out of the 2, I would say MCT is a better pick

more diversified and future blue chip, the biz park segment will have good growth as SG moves towards tech... big start ups are coming into asia flushed with cash

 

[MasterLeong]

What time is the federal meeting ah?

I dunno... should be very late... like US afternoon.. which is past our midnight

just try to wake up early say 7am-8am to read what happen better

no point staying up late, as SG market 9am then open

 

[MasterLeong]

Thats precisely the reason why I opted for MCT over FCT. Not to say FCT isnt good. Just that I want less exposure to malls. Besides, I live near to Vivo..Can confirm there machiam always bursting with human traffic...

And Tiagong Google gonna use MCT de office wor.

yup the MCT biz park segment will be the area of growth

vivo city still remains as a cash cow, but unlikely to see high growth... more of a stable mature high quality asset

 

[MasterLeong]

She keep selling her shares

Sent from Sony E6853 using GAGT

$2 so cheap she also sell omg

better to follow SH CEO, he buying SH at 2.80 level~

 

[MasterLeong]

Jia lat Liao Sia CEO no confidence in her company. Very bad sign

she like every year also sell one hahahaha, guess investors used to it already

she from $3 sell sell sell till now $2 still selling

kinda feels like maybe she retiring soon?

but I do not feel like M1 going bankrupt or what la

still a solid mid cap company that still showing profits

just that profits will be lesser due to 4th telco

I factor in a 20% decline in earnings from 2016-2020 period

 

[MasterLeong]

But causeway point and northpoint like bao jiak. There's no other mall in that area to compete with.

Note: ownership bias ar. I am vested.

generally those malls beside MRT is bao jiak one, that's why I often only go for high quality assets


good thing about owning CMT and FCT, is you weekend can ownself go down the malls and see the flow for yourself

can see can touch, then u decide wanna hoot or not


not like say buying a china reit... you never see or touch before the asset... higher risk to hoot.. give me 20-30% discount to book, I also dont dare to buy

 

[starfish.starfish]

But causeway point and northpoint like bao jiak. There's no other mall in that area to compete with.

Note: ownership bias ar. I am vested.

Heehee buy both loh.

 

[MasterLeong]

in regards to M1 and SH, I am factoring a 20% drop in earnings and dividends

even after 20% cut in dividends, yields will still be over 5%... that's why I am confident and have pump 30k each in them...

however I may be wrong, if dividends cut more than 20%... I DCS for sure

 

[MasterLeong]

Heehee buy both loh.

FCT has both............... LOL

its very strong in the north

 

[MasterLeong]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...00-even-with-fed-rate-hike-in-view-2016-12-13

Dow inches closer to 20,000, even with Fed rate hike in view

 

[MasterLeong]

Fed meeting: The central bank kicks off its two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday and will deliver its rate announcement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. The bank is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis point, so the big question for traders is how hawkish or dovish the statement will be.

 

[MasterLeong]

anyway the art of picking reit is not to pick ONE good reit

but rather to build a basket of reit, so that you can collect a solid yield while protecting your capital

the 5 reits that I selected, my thinking is that

1) they are of the highest quality retail and office assets in singapore
2) their manager has a solid track record of growing nav/dpu
3) they are not too highly geared that a rights issue will come soon
4) they pay a good dividend yield of at least 5.5%
5) I am not over paying (average I paid around 0.8 to 1.1 book value)

As reits fell 10% over the recent month.. i see this as an opportunity and now hold around 130k worth of reits... I MAY BE WRONG as reits MAY CONTINUE TO FALL... however if they fall, I will continue to hold for long term, knowing that they will eventually recovery

cheers

 

[madtari]

Sry guys... I meant to compare between MCT, CCT & FCoT... all the 3 commercial trusts. Stats appended as below. It seems to me that FCoT seems to be the best catch considering the low PB and high yield? Only bad thing is its low cap and low volume but if I hold small qty this should not bother me too much right?

MCT/ CCT/ FCoT
Yield 5.76/ 5.65/ 7.77
PB 1.09/ 0.88/ 0.82
RoA 5.86/ 3.91/ 3.47
RoE 9.62/ 5.51/ 5.85

I guess you are looking at the wrong FCT.. you probably looked at FCOT, Frasers Commercial Trust? Fraser Centrepoint Trust is probably 1-to-1 book value now, where as CMT's book value is definitely beyond 1 at hte moment.

 

[MasterLeong]

Sry guys... I meant to compare between MCT, CCT & FCoT... all the 3 commercial trusts.

I see ok... if you wanna look at office assets only maybe better to compare CCT/Suntec


FCOT is not on my watchlist cause the market cap is too small at around 1 bil, its not under the STI 40 mid cap list

http://www.sharesinv.com/prices/index-ftse-st-mid-cap/indicators

generally I prefer to pick stocks from either the STI 30 or STI 40 mid cap, as etf funds also own them... also these large cap companies are more highly rate and have lower borrowing costs

also major fund managers often are limited to only purchase these 70 large cap companies

there are many criterias to be put up onto the index, so you know those 70 large cap companies are not rubbish... unlike some reits which totally destory shareholders... sabana reit? soil build reit? aims reit? example only


http://www.fraserscommercialtrust.com/asset-portfolio/overview.aspx#.WE_jiNV96M8

because FCOT is so small.. I do not find their portfolio diversified enough

with only 3 sg and 3 Aussie property

also like I mentioned before, I am more comfortable with local assets... as you can see and touch them, more peace of mind


however if purely from looking at numbers FCOT is very attractive

http://www.sharesinv.com/ND8U/

near 18% discount to book along with a high yield of 7.8%


however do note that both CCT/SUN also trade at big discounts to book

http://www.sharesinv.com/C61U/
http://www.sharesinv.com/T82U/

I also generally feel that CCT/SUN has an overall higher quality in their assets

cheers

 

[MasterLeong]

Sry guys... I meant to compare between MCT, CCT & FCoT... all the 3 commercial trusts. Stats appended as below. It seems to me that FCoT seems to be the best catch considering the low PB and high yield? Only bad thing is its low cap and low volume but if I hold small qty this should not bother me too much right?

MCT/ CCT/ FCoT
Yield 5.76/ 5.65/ 7.77
PB 1.09/ 0.88/ 0.82
RoA 5.86/ 3.91/ 3.47
RoE 9.62/ 5.51/ 5.85

can compare MCT/CMT/FCT as they are more heavy on retail assets

for office assets can compare

CCT/SUN/FCOT

cheers