*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[akwl88]

This article when de?

Thot this report surfaced in November?

yeah nov one

 

[madtari]

AMAZON has signed a lease for nearly 100,000 square feet at Mapletree Logistics Hub - Toh Guan in the Jurong East area, sources have told BT.

This is expected to serve as a fulfilment centre for its e-commerce business as well as offices. Operations are expected to begin in two months.

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT), the owner of the six-storey ramp-up warehouse facility, declined to comment when contacted by The Business Times.

POWER OF MLT!!!

This article when de?

Thot this report surfaced in November?

you are right... this was published on 5 Nov. not sure y some ppl likes to dig out old (da bian) to post w/o quoting source... quite misleading.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/amazon-takes-up-100000-sq-ft-at-mapletree-facility-sources

 

[MasterLeong]

someone trying very hard to push his reit lol

just relax la... 2017 will be fine, pretty sure about that

just hold and collect dividends

if the fundamentals are good, dpu/nav keeps growing, the market will eventually reflect via its stock price

 

[akwl88]

google office is in MBC 2

was finding more info on mapletree

 

[MasterLeong]

5 domestic issues that could affect growth next year
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | December 28, 2016 : 10:12 AM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Dec 28): Here are five major domestic events that could affect the local economy in the coming year, according to DBS Group Research.

• Green shoots of recovery
DBS’ economists are expecting to see the early signs of a recovery in 2017, and have forecast GDP growth of 1.3% for FY17, compared with the 1.2% growth in FY16, and a move towards the 2% levels of FY15. The Straits Times Index’s earnings per share is also expected to grow by 8.7%, compared with the contraction of 7.6% in 2016.

Loan growth in October was also up 1%, the first positive growth in 12 months.

“With October bank loan growth finally turning positive after a year of contraction, regional PMIs on the uptick and oil price underpinned by the latest OPEC supply cut, we are optimistic that the worst of the earnings cut has passed,” said DBS.

However, the brokerage points out that the labour market continues to lag behind the growth cycle, so consumer sentiment would likely remain depressed until the economy improves significantly.

To that end, DBS expects EPS growth of 11.8% for banks, 28% EPS growth for consumer goods lead by the recovery in plantation stocks, 24.3% EPS growth for oil and gas from higher oil prices, and a 13.4% EPS growth for consumer services.

Its stock picks include OCBC, Bumitama Agri, Indofood Agri, Sembcorp Industries, Ezion, Genting Singapore, Cityneon, mm2 Asia and Jumbo Seafood.

• Fiscal support
Global trade is under threat by the burgeoning anti-globalisation sentiment and affects open economies like Singapore the hardest. That leaves little reprieve for the already depressed labour market.

As such, DBS believes that the Singapore government may well step in to improve the labour market by encouraging skills upgrading and workers’ retraining, and improving the liquidity of companies.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry has already narrowed the 2016 GDP growth forecast to between 1% and 1.5%, and expects growth to improve to between1% and 3% for 2017.

Looking ahead, there could be other sector specific support measures, judging by the bridging loan scheme and the internationalisation finance scheme designed to aid the marine and offshore engineering industry.

“It’s anyone's guess whether there will be more help to come. Still, a positive signal was sent as these new finance schemes mark the first time that the government is providing such sector-specific intervention,” explained DBS.

Furthermore, the Committee on the Future Economy (CFE) will be releasing its report in January. Its findings would likely impact the upcoming Budget in five different areas, including strategies on innovation, technological trends, connectivity advancements, sustainability, and job trends.

• Higher interest rates
Domestic interest rates would likely increase as the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in the coming year. While MAS’ 10 year bond yields have already climbed by 0.4 percentage points to 2.34%, alongside the increase in US bond yields, DBS now predicts that the MAS’ two-year yields will increase from 1.17% to 1.95% and the 10-year yields to increase from 2.34% to 3.05%.

By DBS’ estimates, a 1% increase in interest rates would reduce earnings by between 2% and 3% across the board.

Among highly geared industries, like the real estate investment trusts, the impact would be even greater. For instance, DBS notes that “every 1% change in interest rates will reduce dividends distribution by 2.9% and between 5% to 15% drop in valuation of REITs”.

• Easing the property curbs
The property cooling measures put in place by the government have been the bugbear among local property investors. Now, DBS believes some of these measures may be relaxed in the coming year, if one of three scenarios occurs.

The scenarios include a jump in interest rates from the current 2% to 3% that would affect mortgage affordability, a 15% drop in prices from peak compared with the current 11% discount, and a sharp increase in unemployment rates to 4%.

“With property forming close to 45% of total household wealth as of 3Q16, it is not in the government’s interest to have a rapidly declining property market,” explained the brokerage, adding that the additional buyer stamp duty (ABSD) and the down payment ratios for investment properties may be the first ones to be relaxed.

• Restructuring of TLCs
Temasek Holdings has been included in the net investment return framework since 2015 in an effort to increase shareholder returns for Temasek-linked companies.

The brokerage notes that there are four ways returns can be improved, including optimising its capital structure, hunting for inorganic growth opportunities, undertaking restructuring or divesting non-performing sectors and introducing a higher dividend payout among cash rich companies.

During the past year, Temasek had privatised SMRT, sold NOL, and SIA had privatised Tiger Airways, and DBS expects the restructuring theme to continue in the new year.

“Other Temasek-link companies with potential to further optimize their capital structures include ST Engineering, while Capitaland’s more aggressive stance on asset recycling would unlock value and lead to higher returns for the group,” concluded the brokerage.

 

[MasterLeong]

Shanghai housing bubble.

1.7 million USD per house and those AT are snapping up 2-3 houses; even using loopholes to get more houses with less down-payment.

Raising interest rate will make shanghai a ghost town ma? Those AT in shanghai are highly leveraged.

Note: Not spreading fear.

i think the bubble is still building up, but maybe within the decade we may have a china crisis

2015 the china market crash was pretty insane already

 

[MasterLeong]

"By DBS’ estimates, a 1% increase in interest rates would reduce earnings by between 2% and 3% across the board.

Among highly geared industries, like the real estate investment trusts, the impact would be even greater. For instance, DBS notes that “every 1% change in interest rates will reduce dividends distribution by 2.9% and between 5% to 15% drop in valuation of REITs”.
"


4 hikes = 1% interest rates hike... maybe that's why investors were so fearful recently

however my believe is that 2017 will only see 2 hikes, below market expectation... i am likely wrong but this is still my view.. and I have taken action by going heavy into reits alongside my telcos and banks

 

[Sai777]

Shanghai housing bubble.

1.7 million USD per house and those AT are snapping up 2-3 houses; even using loopholes to get more houses with less down-payment.

Raising interest rate will make shanghai a ghost town ma? Those AT in shanghai are highly leveraged.

Note: Not spreading fear.

For a country that never have a single recession over the last 30 years, I would bet house price continue to go north too.

 

[Mancunian2]

AMAZON has signed a lease for nearly 100,000 square feet at Mapletree Logistics Hub - Toh Guan in the Jurong East area, sources have told BT.

This is expected to serve as a fulfilment centre for its e-commerce business as well as offices. Operations are expected to begin in two months.

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT), the owner of the six-storey ramp-up warehouse facility, declined to comment when contacted by The Business Times.

POWER OF MLT!!!

in uS and UK, amazon always go for the cheapest, slum areas for their warehouses

in SG, go for branded?

 

[Mancunian2]

"By DBS’ estimates, a 1% increase in interest rates would reduce earnings by between 2% and 3% across the board.

Among highly geared industries, like the real estate investment trusts, the impact would be even greater. For instance, DBS notes that “every 1% change in interest rates will reduce dividends distribution by 2.9% and between 5% to 15% drop in valuation of REITs”.
"


4 hikes = 1% interest rates hike... maybe that's why investors were so fearful recently

however my believe is that 2017 will only see 2 hikes, below market expectation... i am likely wrong but this is still my view.. and I have taken action by going heavy into reits alongside my telcos and banks

if DBS prognosis is correct, then the rate hikes have already been priced in the market prices

 

[MasterLeong]

When bubble burst, those AT will 跳楼.

I guess so, the china chinese are known to be super greedy

 

[MasterLeong]

if DBS prognosis is correct, then the rate hikes have already been priced in the market prices

yup, I guess so

as we saw reit falling 10-15% in Q4 this year, more or less priced in

if next year hikes 3 or less, we may see reits recovering

 

[mazatsushi]

i think the bubble is still building up, but maybe within the decade we may have a china crisis

2015 the china market crash was pretty insane already

Yeah man.

There are literally still hundreds of millions of people in China who have yet to be lifted out of poverty into a middle class lifestyle.

As that happens, real estate prices will only keep heading north until the bubble reach critical mass. When it pops, chances are 2008 will look like swimming in a baby pool

 

[plus1]

mazatsushi.
Please see your pm.
Need advise

 

[mazatsushi]

mazatsushi.
Please see your pm.
Need advise

Replied

 

[madtari]

Toh guan mapletree warehouse also considered branded meh?

in uS and UK, amazon always go for the cheapest, slum areas for their warehouses

in SG, go for branded?

 

[MasterLeong]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...as-auxiliary-police-in/3396950.html?cid=fbcna

 

[Takodoro]

First quarter got brexit's article 50 & donald trump presidency starts. Around 3rd to 4th quarter got german election.

If yellen play safe, there will not be 4 rate hikes next year. At most 2. If merkel zeh zeh lost or the hype over donald trump died off, I guess we will see only 1 rate hike.

Donald trump also can win. Merkel no bao jiak, especially with those terrorist attack in EU.

Merkel da jie da lose may not be a bad thing......iirc public support seems to be down after the immigrant issue?

It all depends on what the replacement can bring to the tables, and/or market sentiments, i.e. another potential Trump in the making.

 

[MasterLeong]

2895 already, seems like 2900 would be a good level to close for 2016

3000 would be insane

 

[MasterLeong]

BB jin smart... send market into panic before holidays

when retail investors sold off in fear and go holiday then BB slowly buy up cheap cheap

jin sneaky sia