*Official* MasterLeong Thread

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MasterLeong

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At least 2015-2016
Both years did not have recession
Unlike what many said and were spreading fear about
 

MasterLeong

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According to advance estimates by the MTI, Singapore’s economy grew 1.8% YoY in 4Q16, faster than 3Q16’s 1.2% growth and better than the street’s expectations of 0.3% growth. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 9.1%, a reversal from the 1.9% contraction in the previous quarter. Manufacturing grew 14.6% QoQ, reversing from 3Q16’s contraction of 8.1% (supported by electronics and biomedical manufacturing on a YoY basis), while the construction sector continued to contract at -4.7% QoQ in 4Q16 following the -14.8% growth in 3Q16. Services producing industries grew 9.4% QoQ, following three quarters of contraction.
 

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DBS downgraded by OCBC


DBS: Downgrade to HOLD




After languishing for the large part of 2016, the local banking sector piled on strong gains following Trump’s election win in early November. Trump’s anticipated focus on investment and infrastructure led to optimism about corporate earnings expectations for 2017. While the global outlook is showing some signs of improvement, the underlying softness for the Singapore economy and selective sectors (including oil and gas and property) remain. For DBS, the 5-year average PB ratio is around 1.15 but with a still mixed outlook for the region, we think that for the near term, the stock will continue to trade at a discount to this level, likely within the 0.95x-1.05x PB band (translating to fair value estimates of S$16.94 to S$18.72). With the recent re-rating of banking stocks, we have moved our valuation peg to 1x book, giving fair value estimate of S$17.83.
 

MasterLeong

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sti very small red

maybe must see US market first

ppl waiting to see if US can break 20,000 or not
 

MasterLeong

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I also kinda agree that DBS is currently fairly price at near 1 time 2017 book value

given they still holding to bad loans in the O&G segment
 

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GDP good means garmen not gonna pump big $$$ into economy

no hot money.. STI when red................

nowadays seems like opposite de hor?
 

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According to advance estimates by the MTI, Singapore’s economy grew 1.8% YoY in 4Q16, faster than 3Q16’s 1.2% growth and better than the street’s expectations of 0.3% growth. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 9.1%, a reversal from the 1.9% contraction in the previous quarter. Manufacturing grew 14.6% QoQ, reversing from 3Q16’s contraction of 8.1% (supported by electronics and biomedical manufacturing on a YoY basis), while the construction sector continued to contract at -4.7% QoQ in 4Q16 following the -14.8% growth in 3Q16. Services producing industries grew 9.4% QoQ, following three quarters of contraction.

basis of comparison damn funny- moi arm chio
9.1% annualized growth is compared again a contraction in QUARTER
manufacturing - 14.6% qoq with 8.1% contract qoq but supported by data YOY
construction- -14.8% GROWTH siol negative growth, they dont want use contract 2 times
services- following 3 quarters of contraction, probably cause YoY data is **** also


KNN u see so many basis of comparison , data presentation jin satki !!!
 

MasterLeong

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basis of comparison damn funny- moi arm chio
9.1% annualized growth is compared again a contraction in QUARTER
manufacturing - 14.6% qoq with 8.1% contract qoq but supported by data YOY
construction- -14.8% GROWTH siol negative growth, they dont want use contract 2 times
services- following 3 quarters of contraction, probably cause YoY data is **** also


KNN u see so many basis of comparison , data presentation jin satki !!!

ok la... analysts are like that one

at least sg no go into recession in 2016

now is 2017 will go into recession ma? hope not
 

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Bitcoin jumps above US$1,000 for first time in three years
By Reuters / Reuters | January 3, 2017 : 8:38 AM MYT
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LONDON (Jan 3): Digital currency bitcoin kicked off the new year by jumping above US$1,000 ($1,450) for the first time in three years late on Sunday, having outperformed all central-bank-issued currencies with a 125% climb in 2016.

Bitcoin - a web-based "cryptocurrency" that has no central authority, relying instead on thousands of computers across the world that validate transactions and add new bitcoins to the system - jumped 2.5% to US$1,022 on the Europe-based Bitstamp exchange, its highest since December 2013.

Though the digital currency has historically been highly volatile - a tenfold increase in its value in two months in late 2013 took it to above US$1,100, before a hack on the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox exchange saw it plunge to under US$400 in the following weeks - it has in the past two years been more stable.

Its biggest daily moves in 2016 were around 10%, still very volatile compared with fiat currencies, but markedly lower than the trading of 2013, which saw daily price swings of as much as 40%.

Bitcoin may have been boosted in the past year by increased demand in China on the back of a 7% annual fall in the value of the yuan in 2016, the Chinese currency's weakest showing in over 20 years. Data shows most bitcoin trading is done in China.

Bitcoin is used to move money across the globe quickly and anonymously and does not fall under the purview of any authority, making it attractive to those wanting to get around capital controls, such as China's.

It is also may appeal to those worried about a lack of supply of cash, such as in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi removed high-denomination bank notes from circulation in November.

"The growing war on cash, and capital controls, is making bitcoin look like a viable, if high risk, alternative," said Paul Gordon, a board member of the UK Digital Currency Association and co-founder of Quantave, a firm seeking to make it easier for institutional investors to access digital currency exchanges.

Though bitcoin is still some way off the all-time high of US$1,163 that it reached on the Bitstamp exchange in late 2013, there are now more bitcoins in circulation - 12.5 are added to the system every 10 minutes. Its total worth is at a record-high above US$16 billion, putting its value at around the same as that of an average FTSE 100 company.

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MasterLeong

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Singapore’s GDP grew by 1.8% in 4Q based on estimates
By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 3, 2017 : 9:05 AM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 3): Based on advance estimates, the Singapore economy grew by 1.8% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2016.

This is faster than the 1.2% growth in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 9.1%, a reversal from the 1.9% contraction in the preceding quarter.

For the whole of 2016, the economy grew by 1.8%, above MTI’s earlier announced GDP growth forecast of “1.0 to 1.5%”.

The manufacturing sector expanded by 6.5% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, an improvement from the 1.7 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

Growth was primarily driven by the electronics and biomedical manufacturing clusters, even as the transport engineering and general manufacturing clusters continued to contract.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the sector grew by 14.6%, a sharp turnaround from the 8.1% contraction in the third quarter.

The construction sector contracted by 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, extending the 0.2% decline in the previous quarter.

The contraction was largely due to the decline in private sector construction activities.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the sector shrank by 4.7%, moderating from the 14.8% contraction in the preceding quarter.

Growth in the services producing industries came in at 0.6% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, slightly faster than the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. Growth was supported by the “other services industries”, transportation & storage and business services sectors.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the services producing industries expanded at an annualised rate of 9.4%, a reversal from the 0.4% contraction in the third quarter.

MTI will release the preliminary GDP estimates for the fourth quarter and the whole of 2016, including performance by sectors, sources of growth, inflation, employment and productivity, in its Economic Survey of Singapore in February 2017.
 

MasterLeong

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Optimism due to higher rates ahead
Understandably, Trump’s perceived pro-business view and expected
focus on investment and infrastructure have a positive effect on
corporate earnings expectations for 2017. This together with
expectation of higher interest rates in 2017 are just some of the
factors that led to the optimism and re-rating for the banking sector in
some regional markets, Europe and the US. In Singapore, the average
price-to-book (PB) ratio moved up from 0.95x in Oct to 1.05x by Dec.
 

MasterLeong

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With the recent re-rating of
banking stocks, we have moved our valuation peg to 1x book,
resulting in a fair value estimate of S$17.83. At current level, we are
downgrading the stock to a HOLD and think a better level to re-enter
the stock will be at S$16.80 or lower.


ocbc analyst say 16.80 or lower then buy DBS again
 

MasterLeong

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like what the analysts have said, banks are currently trading at around 1.05

I feel that banks may be a bit pricy

a fair value should be around 1 times book value for our banks...

cheers
 

MasterLeong

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someone bought 3000 DBS at 17.68 average price... likely that speculator will lose $1 per share... or around 3k losses for this trade, that's my read
 
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