*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[lewissac]

if u bought FCT at book value u will receive around 6% dividends per year

if u hold for 3 years, u get 18% returns from dividends in stock price unchanged

but if tmr FCT up 18%, u can sell immediately... no need wait 3 years

Oo.. thanks!

Im interested on gaining dividends. Heard you mentioned DCA is more approachable. So does those property/REITs are dividend type?

 

[cronoficator]

Just bought CMT @ 1.94. Who dares wins!

 

[MasterLeong]

Oo.. thanks!

Im interested on gaining dividends. Heard you mentioned DCA is more approachable. So does those property/REITs are dividend type?

DCA on blue chips is a good approach in growing your portfolio in the beginning, not only applies to reits

can DCA telcos banks reits, all are okay


DCA not too good for cyclical/trading stocks

 

[tanjiakpeng]

if they ask these question and follow, high chance won't huat.
different people have different risk tolerance.

to some, a 50% drop, they scared and sell.
to some, a 10% drop, they scared and sell.

if sell liao, the stock turn on rocket booster and fly, the one that say buy will say "see, I told you to buy." the one that scared will say "sianzz, i sold cos I scared."

Different people will buy different stocks and huat.
Many ways, same outcome (if you choose the right path which suit your style)

this forum got alot of the 'see, told u to buy' + 'see, told u to sell' kind of horse back cannon. but truth is they also not vested, yaya smlj lolol. only boost their ego.

ego worth how many marnee huh

 

[lewissac]

DCA on blue chips is a good approach in growing your portfolio in the beginning, not only applies to reits

can DCA telcos banks reits, all are okay


DCA not too good for cyclical/trading stocks

I see.

Im currently starting DCA on ETF already since 2 mths ago.

Looking at your thread here, i see familiar names pop-up: CMT, FCT, MCT.
Are those DCA-able? or are they cyclical/trading stocks? Looking through the dividend payout via dividends.sg and seems pretty good yield compared with ETF.

 

[strangerjun]

Evan Koh of sgx cafe just did a stats analysis to see whether there is a correlation between P/E and earnings, P/E and total returns. The common argument is that you would be overpaying for hype stocks. Think dot-com bubble.

What he found out is there is no correlation between P/E and Earnings, and that there is a slight negative correlation between P/E and Total Returns. Essentially, it is saying that the P/E does not influence Earnings, but a higher P/E causes slightly lower Total Returns.

https://www.sgxcafe.com/article/view/72/should+you+avoid+high+p++e

The negative correlation is quite weak like what he has mentioned and he only used up to 3 years data instead of longer period which is more significant for investors. Or maybe the relationship is non-monotonic, non-linear? And there are many other variables that can influence earnings and total returns too. so it is better not to rely on one metric to assess a company.

 

[xSieghartx]

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/key-facts-about-palm-oil/

Wilmar under fire for using child labour, many of their big customers looking into it now.

 

[akwl88]

NEW YORK/HOUSTON: In a corner of the prolific Bakken shale play in North Dakota, oil companies can now pump crude at a price almost as low as that enjoyed by OPEC giants Iran and Iraq.

Until a few years ago it was unprofitable to produce oil from shale in the United States. The steep slide in costs could encourage more U.S. shale output if OPEC members cut supplies, undermining the producer group's ability to boost prices. OPEC ministers meet Wednesday to weigh output cuts to end a two-year glut that has pressured global oil prices.

In shale fields from Texas to North Dakota, production costs have roughly halved since 2014, when Saudi Arabia signaled an output free-for-all in an attempt to drive higher-cost shale producers out of the market.

Rather than killing the U.S. shale industry, the ensuing two-year price war made shale a stronger rival, even in the current low-price environment.

In Dunn County, North Dakota, there are around 2,000 square miles where the cost to produce Bakken shale is US$15 a barrel and falling, according to Lynn Helms, head of the state's Department of Mineral Resources.

"The success in Dunn County has been fantastic," said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council.

Dunn County's cost is about the same as Iran's, and a little higher than Iraq's. Dunn County produces about 200,000 barrels of oil a day, about a fifth of daily production in the state.

It is North Dakota's sweet spot because it boasts the lowest costs in the state, yet improved technology and drilling techniques have boosted efficiency for the whole state and the entire U.S. oil industry.

The breakeven cost per barrel, on average, to produce Bakken shale at the wellhead has fallen to US$29.44 in 2016 from US$59.03 in 2014, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. It added that in terms of wellhead prices, Bakken is the most competitive of major U.S. shale plays.

Wood Mackenzie said technology advances should further reduce breakeven points.

Landlocked Bakken producers still need a substantially higher international price than their breakeven cost to make a profit, since they pay more to transport crude to market than producers in most other U.S. regions.

International oil prices of US$45 a barrel are enough for some Bakken producers to profit, Ness said, and US$55 would encourage production growth.

Benchmark Brent prices plummeted from nearly US$116 a barrel in mid-2014 to just US$27 earlier this year. Prices have since recovered to nearly US$46. That is still too low for members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose state budgets depend on petrodollar revenues that plummeted during the price war.

For OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, a major concern is that an output cut would encourage a quick response from U.S. shale producers, who have slashed costs and have been steadily adding drilling rigs.

"Right now, OPEC understands we're in a push-and-pull experiment with the United States," said Michael Tran, director of energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

"Two years ago, we thought prices hovering around US$50 to US$60 meant that non-OPEC production growth would end. But U.S. production came back stronger."

In a recent earnings call, Hess Corp said it has improved its cost performance in the Bakken, with well costs falling and initial production rates rising, though it did not give more details.

"Everybody is drilling wells faster and completing them better," said Mike Breard, an energy stock analyst at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. "It's not just a Bakken phenomenon."

Breard said he prefers shale stocks in the Permian basin in Texas, where he is expecting more big gains in production next year. He is eyeing firms such as Parsley Energy Inc, Ring Energy Inc and Matador Resources Co.

Oil companies are already investing big money to benefit from shale's resurgence. Tesoro Corp recently snapped up Western Refining Inc in a US$4 billion deal to bulk up its exposure in Texas.

Separately, trading firm Castleton Commodities International LLC bought more than US$1 billion in assets from Anadarko Petroleum Corp to increase its stake in East Texas.

Occidental Petroleum Corp's top executive recently said that company has enjoyed steady improvement in well productivity and lower drilling and completion costs in the Permian Basin.

"Simply put, we can deliver more production with fewer wells," Vicki Hollub, the company's president and chief executive, told analysts on a recent call.

 

[xSieghartx]

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/key-facts-about-palm-oil/

Wilmar under fire for using child labour, many of their big customers looking into it now.

Most people in developed countries don't realise that children from poor families in developing countries are just out working to help support their family. As soon as they see a child at work instead of studying in school, the westerners all start screaming "child abuse!". But they didn't stop to think about the differences in circumstances.

Edit:
I'm not advocating the use of child labour, just wish to put a different perspective out there.

 

[strangerjun]

Most people in developed countries don't realise that children from poor families in developing countries are just out working to help support their family. As soon as they see a child at work instead of studying in school, the westerners all start screaming "child abuse!". But they didn't stop to think about the differences in circumstances.

Edit:
I'm not advocating the use of child labour, just wish to put a different perspective into light.

if never work for wilmar what would they be doing and how much would they be earning?

Got exploit?

 

[xSieghartx]

if never work for wilmar what would they be doing and how much would they be earning?

Got exploit?

https://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/case-against-child-labor-prohibitions

Due to closure of sweatshops in Bangladesh, to quote the report: "according to Oxfam, which found that the displaced child workers ended up in even worse jobs, or on the streets—and that a significant number were forced into prostitution".

Not saying this will be the case in rural Indonesia as well, but if they can't work in Wilmar, the children will just find jobs elsewhere.

 

[madtari]

the debate is not how much should they be getting. its rather they should not be working at all. children should be playing/studying and nothing else.

if never work for wilmar what would they be doing and how much would they be earning?

Got exploit?

 

[strangerjun]

the debate is not how much should they be getting. its rather they should not be working at all. children should be playing/studying and nothing else.

of course but only if study is an available and accessible option for their families. If not most would end up working to help with family expenses even they are at schooling age.

 

[MasterLeong]

Evan Koh of sgx cafe just did a stats analysis to see whether there is a correlation between P/E and earnings, P/E and total returns. The common argument is that you would be overpaying for hype stocks. Think dot-com bubble.

What he found out is there is no correlation between P/E and Earnings, and that there is a slight negative correlation between P/E and Total Returns. Essentially, it is saying that the P/E does not influence Earnings, but a higher P/E causes slightly lower Total Returns.

https://www.sgxcafe.com/article/view/72/should+you+avoid+high+p++e

The negative correlation is quite weak like what he has mentioned and he only used up to 3 years data instead of longer period which is more significant for investors. Or maybe the relationship is non-monotonic, non-linear? And there are many other variables that can influence earnings and total returns too. so it is better not to rely on one metric to assess a company.

3 year data is rubbish

need to see 1 full business cycle or 10 years

 

[MasterLeong]

I see.

Im currently starting DCA on ETF already since 2 mths ago.

Looking at your thread here, i see familiar names pop-up: CMT, FCT, MCT.
Are those DCA-able? or are they cyclical/trading stocks? Looking through the dividend payout via dividends.sg and seems pretty good yield compared with ETF.

reits telco banks, are more like dividend stocks

commodities/marine/property developer more of cyclical stocks

 

[madtari]

ya... the show hosted by QYF on Ch U showed quite a lot of countries with those working kids. its not illegal in some countries I guess... or it could be illegal but local officials can't be bothered or are being bribed..

of course but only if study is an available and accessible option for their families. If not most would end up working to help with family expenses even they is at schooling age.

 

[MasterLeong]

i age 13 started working liao

pro gamer lol

traveled to LA to play on the pro tour and was defeated badly

 

[strangerjun]

ya... the show hosted by QYF on Ch U showed quite a lot of countries with those working kids. its not illegal in some countries I guess... or it could be illegal but local officials can't be bothered or are being bribed..

though not the best option to work at a tender age but sure better than resorting to crimes or doing dishonest stuffs.

 

[madtari]

what other sectors are defensive and good for dividend income? Examples:
Utilities - KIT?
Service - Vicom, CDG?

reits telco banks, are more like dividend stocks

commodities/marine/property developer more of cyclical stocks

 

[madtari]

are you sure that's considered as working or playing? you want to bluff who?

i age 13 started working liao

pro gamer lol

traveled to LA to play on the pro tour and was defeated badly