[OFFICIAL] S&P 500 Market Watch

[DevilPlate]

When EDMW calls for Black Monday , you know, there won't be any.

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/potential-black-swan-market-crash-2024.7053135/

The whole social media calling for simi black mon and tues hahaha

I think got chance technical rebound on tues and clobbered all the shortist on Mon whahahaha

 

[DevilPlate]

Market is usually right....US prolly already in a recession now and when GDP hit 2 negative figures 6-9mths later thats when stock market bottom? Hahahaha

 

[aurvandil]

Useful information for today. Just in case.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/sp-500-price-limits-faq.html

 

[stanlawj]

This is one of my favourite macro guys:

 

[aurvandil]

The whole social media calling for simi black mon and tues hahaha

I think got chance technical rebound on tues and clobbered all the shortist on Mon whahahaha

This kind of move cannot be greedy. Need to fast hand fast leg buy back before the rebound.

 

[aurvandil]

Tuesday 06 Aug 24

Hope everyone wasn’t mauled too badly on Monday. It wasn’t exactly Black Monday, but it was still plenty painful. The turnaround came after the Services PMI was released, which came in at 51.4, slightly higher than the consensus estimate.

Prior to the release, the market made what now appears to be an excess low at 5120. This excess low seems secure, with no significant event risk on the horizon until next Wednesday’s CPI release. The stage is set for a fierce rally back up to 5360, the halfback of the move. The 5360 level is significant as it is also a high volume node.

Beyond growth fears, another factor driving the recent sell-off is the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The yen has surged wildly, leading to a spectacular collapse of the Nikkei. Compared to the Fed, the BOJ appears moribund and stuck in the 1990s, seemingly at a complete loss on how to manage the market. Instead of providing guidance, BOJ Governor Ueda seems to have gone into hiding, suffering a complete loss of face after pushing through his 15 bps rate hike despite rare public dissent from two of his committee members.

Left unchecked, the yen surge seems certain to push the Japanese economy back into recession/stagnation and restart the deflationary spiral. The standard policy remedy for this is to drop interest rates back to 0 and implement emergency QE. The BOJ seems unwilling to make this humiliating but necessary policy reversal. Fortunately for the world, the Japanese economy is not what it once was, and any fallout from the policy failure appears limited to the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

 

[aurvandil]

Thursday 08 Aug 24

After moving sideways for two days, the market pushed down and broke through the 5220 level, extending the low to 5187.75. The 5120 low from Monday is now no longer secure. There is a need to be mentally prepared for another wave of selling that breaches the 5120 level and proceeds to test and possibly break the 5028.50 from April 19. Beyond this level, there are no reliable levels for a good order flow read, as the data for levels below this point goes too far back to be dependable.

At this juncture, it is impossible to predict how far this sell-off will go before the market finds a bottom. The past two days suggested that a bottom was forming. That attempt appears to be failing and market looks set to continue lower. It should be expected that failed attempts to find a bottom can happen several times before the market actually finds the bottom. It all depends on how many people get into trouble and are forced to sell. Until the bottom presents itself, best thing you can do is chill and relax.

 

[aurvandil]

Tuesday 13 Aug 24

On Thursday, 8 Aug, the market saw a failed attempt to push lower, followed by a sharp rally driven by lower-than-expected Jobless Claims numbers. The rally brought the market back to the 5360.25 level, which marks the halfback of the move from 1 Aug. Since then, the market has been trading sideways at this level, with a modest upward drift. While the VIX has come down, it remains elevated at 20.71. This is suggestive that while the 5120.00 bottom is secure for the moment, the market is not quite out of the woods yet.

Looking ahead, key events are on the horizon, starting with the CPI release on Wednesday. This will be followed by Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data on Thursday, and concluding with OPEX on Friday. This upcoming OPEX is particularly significant due to the large volume of hedges that were put on during the recent sell-off.

The market narrative has shifted, with increasing sentiment that the U.S. economy might not be as weak as previously feared. For the Sep FOMC, the market had previously priced in a 50 bps cut. However, this has since been adjusted to reflect even odds between a 25 bps and a 50 bps cut. This adjustment is due to the fact that, aside from the weak NFP number, there hasn’t been any empirical evidence to support the idea that the U.S. economy is crash-landing into a recession. In fact, the FED is still forecasting GDP growth of 2.9% and expects CPI to reflect price stability disinflation rather than recessionary deflation.

During market sell-offs, it is a popular sport for "experts" to critique the FED as being incompetent or behind the curve. However, it is important to remember that none of these "experts" have the resources that the FED does. The FED has a research department staffed by over 400 PhDs who have access not only to proprietary data unavailable to the public but also to detailed unit record-level published data. This allows them to analyze the numbers with a depth of understanding that no outsider can match. The FED doesn’t always get it right, but in my experience, they are far more accurate than many of the "experts" who criticize them.

 

[aurvandil]

Wednesday 14 Aug 24

The market rallied on PPI data that hit the sweet spot—disinflationary without being deflationary. The market has cleared the 5360.25 halfback and is now well-positioned to test the 5600.75, the SoC of the current sell-off. This price action offers welcome relief for many investors whose portfolios have taken a hit during the recent downturn.

While the rally is encouraging, it’s too soon to declare the sell-off over and start going all in. Beneath the surface of the PPI numbers, there are signs that consumer demand might be weaker than expected. This raises the possibility that tonight's CPI could show deflation rather than disinflation. Thursday’s Retail Sales data might confirm this weak consumer demand, especially with Walmart releasing earnings at the same time. If Walmart misses expectations or issues a gloomy guidance, it could trigger a sell-off, erasing gains and pulling the market back to previous levels. Additionally, jobless claims will be released on Thursday, and if they show an unexpected spike, that alone could push the market lower.

Given these substantial event risks, it’s wise to approach the current rally with caution. The VIX remains elevated, reflecting the underlying uncertainty. It’s best to stay cautious and defensive until the event risks resolve. It’s always better to miss out on potential gains than to take on unnecessary losses.

 

[aurvandil]

Friday 16 Aug 24

The market surged higher on stronger-than-expected Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data, effectively quashing the narrative that the U.S. economy is heading for a hard landing into recession. The prevailing sentiment now is that the Fed has timed things correctly with the market now pricing a steady set of 25 bps rate cuts starting from the Sep FOMC meeting.

The key level to watch above is 5600.75, the SoC where the market was trading before the recent downturn began. Breaching this level could bring the 5721.25 ATH back into play.

Looking ahead, there are no significant macroeconomic releases until the Sep NFP. All eyes will now be on the Jackson Hole symposium from Aug 22 to 24. This year’s symposium timing is unusual, with the Fed Chair’s opening remarks scheduled for Saturday morning instead of the customary Friday. Given the recent data, expectations are that the Fed will use this platform to assert its success against inflation and outline the path forward for rate cuts.

After Jackson Hole, Nvidia’s earnings on Aug 28 will take center stage. The recent sell-off has battered the Mag 7 + Nvidia stocks, but strong earnings and positive guidance from Nvidia could reboot the AI-driven growth narrative.

 

[hyperfuse]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sp5...t-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8

What do you guys think?

 

[yslvlys]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sp5...t-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8

What do you guys think?

If true that will mean low returns for the mag 7 also..

 

[DevilPlate]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sp5...t-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8

What do you guys think?

Keep a diversified portfolio lor.
buy some world index funds, hold some cash, ssb, gold/btc, bonds
Any scenario u can ride it thru

 

[sohguanh]

Just feel like chipping in. World index ETF is never world so as to speak. It is basically US centric. I have observed a few times liao. The major holdings in the world index are just too heavily tilted to US.

Therefore when newbie see the English word world index do more observations or play a bit and you come to your own conclusion. To me world index == US unless they can balance out their top holdings a bit to be more diversified.

 

[aurvandil]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sp5...t-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8

What do you guys think?

It used to be true that as a retail investor, you could only make money when S&P is going up. Today however there are a wide variety of tools available to a retail investors where you can make money when the index is going down or even going sideways. You are limited only by how well you can read what is happening.

 

[DevilPlate]

Just feel like chipping in. World index ETF is never world so as to speak. It is basically US centric. I have observed a few times liao. The major holdings in the world index are just too heavily tilted to US.

Therefore when newbie see the English word world index do more observations or play a bit and you come to your own conclusion. To me world index == US unless they can balance out their top holdings a bit to be more diversified.

Aiya, even Sea limited Grab etc all listed in US....so it is international lah.

VWRA 60% in US
https://fifthperson.com/vwra-the-all-world-etf/

 

[yslvlys]

Aiya, even Sea limited Grab etc all listed in US....so it is international lah.

VWRA 60% in US
https://fifthperson.com/vwra-the-all-world-etf/

Haha US listed companies are companies from all over the world.

 

[hyperfuse]

Keep a diversified portfolio lor.
buy some world index funds, hold some cash, ssb, gold/btc, bonds
Any scenario u can ride it thru

The only stock/etf I have in the markets are CSPX in the LSE.

It's only 10 percent of my monies. The rest of the 90 percent are all in high yield bank accounts, capital and interest guaranteed endowments, ssb, tbills, etc which are relatively very safe.

For that 10 percent, i basically wanna just focus on one ETF which I chose the S&P 500 as it seems diversified on its own since it's 500 companies though yes it's all US companies.

Just looking at the news on that article, should I just ignore it? Planning to hold long term like 20 to 25 years.

As I had did a lump sum in to CSPX in the year 2022, it's currently grown about 30 percent unrealized profits.

2 weeks ago there was a small dip so I buy in lump sum, but small amount only. Bought another 20k worth of CSPX.

 

[DevilPlate]

The only stock/etf I have in the markets are CSPX in the LSE.

It's only 10 percent of my monies. The rest of the 90 percent are all in high yield bank accounts, capital and interest guaranteed endowments, ssb, tbills, etc which are relatively very safe.

For that 10 percent, i basically wanna just focus on one ETF which I chose the S&P 500 as it seems diversified on its own since it's 500 companies though yes it's all US companies.

Just looking at the news on that article, should I just ignore it? Planning to hold long term like 20 to 25 years.

Wah liu, only 10%

Can consider slowly bump it up to perhaps 20-30% since u still have 20+years runway.
However since now u already getting worried with js 10% allocation, maybe js hold and forget and then add more during big correction of 30%+

 

[hyperfuse]

Wah liu, only 10%

Can consider slowly bump it up to perhaps 20-30% since u still have 20+years runway.
However since now u already getting worried with js 10% allocation, maybe js hold and forget and then add more during big correction of 30%+

No la I wasn't worried. I also didn't bother the ups and downs when I bought in 2022.

Just happen to saw that news article above.

Ya I plan to buy more when it dips again.