[OFFICIAL] S&P 500 Market Watch

[sohguanh]

Aiya, even Sea limited Grab etc all listed in US....so it is international lah.

VWRA 60% in US
https://fifthperson.com/vwra-the-all-world-etf/

That is why it is like S&P 500 albeit in lower weightage. Due to this high composition when you see the price move up and down it seems to imitate the pure US ETF closely. Then to me there is very small diversification may as well get the US ETF for higher returns instead. Then the so called world index you craft your own version instead.

 

[DevilPlate]

That is why it is like S&P 500 albeit in lower weightage. Due to this high composition when you see the price move up and down it seems to imitate the pure US ETF closely. Then to me there is very small diversification may as well get the US ETF for higher returns instead. Then the so called world index you craft your own version instead.

Add some EIMI lor

 

[aurvandil]

Just looking at the news on that article, should I just ignore it? Planning to hold long term like 20 to 25 years.

You should just ignore it. If you are looking at stocks, US has the largest liquidity pool in the world. If anything happens, the world is not going to do crazy stuff like move all the money into China. The liquidity will move to cash and US Treasuries. When the dust has settled, the money will move back into stocks. You are not leveraged in any way and you have such a long time frame that this is one of the safest way to grow your money.

 

[sohguanh]

Add some EIMI lor

That is why you need a few not just only one single world index ETF which some readers have been selling to newbie especially.

 

[DevilPlate]

That is why you need a few not just only one single world index ETF which some readers have been selling to newbie especially.

But seriously VWRA already been underperforming compared to SPY…..so unless u think emerging market gona outperform next decade then add EIMI lah…..else underperform even more lol

 

[sohguanh]

But seriously VWRA already been underperforming compared to SPY…..so unless u think emerging market gona outperform next decade then add EIMI lah…..else underperform even more lol

The topic I want to flag is the term world index == US basically. I never say about returns or anything. In case newbie join the game see the English word world index think it is indeed the world.

 

[DevilPlate]

The topic I want to flag is the term world index == US basically. I never say about returns or anything. In case newbie join the game see the English word world index think it is indeed the world.

It is not equal to US lah….if not VWRA performance shd be similar to SPY

 

[haddington21]

Start loading up on your S&P500 Put options for the stock market is dark and full of terrors.

 

[aurvandil]

Wednesday 21 Aug 24

The market has recovered well and is currently trading sideways around the 5630 level, slightly above the SoC of the recent sharp decline to 5120. The next key level is 5664 from July 18. If the market breaks above this level, the all-time high of 5721.25 comes back into play.

This week is relatively quiet in terms of event risk. On Thursday, the release of the FOMC minutes will set the backdrop for Powell's address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday [correcting the previous post of a Saturday speech]. The market expects Powell to provide details about the upcoming rate cut cycle while making the case that the Fed has timed its actions well—slowing GDP growth to a more sustainable 2% without tipping the U.S. into a recession.

The recent sharp decline, followed by an equally sharp recovery, has caught many on the wrong side of the trade. It has particularly frustrated those who were bearish and positioned for a deep, prolonged market crash. Among this group, the latest talking point is the upcoming revision of jobs data by the BLS, with expectations ranging from 360k (JPMorgan Chase) to 1 million (Goldman Sachs). The bears are highlighting the Goldman number and predicting another crash. Currently this narrative is only being taken seriously by retail investors, particularly "furus" active on YouTube and X. There is no sign that institutions are paying attention to the release. The VIX is at a moderate 15.88, and trading volume has been normal since Monday. The consistent, extended one-time framing up by the market is a bullish sign, suggesting quiet accumulation ahead of Powell's policy announcement. The expectation is that the market will break above 5721.25 following Powell's speech and heading into Nvidia's earnings on August 28.

 

[aurvandil]

Thursday 22 Aug 24

The market continued to grind higher in relatively quiet trading, with the key level above at 5664. The VIX is elevated at 16.27. This setup, with an elevated VIX but the market continuing to grind up ahead of a major event risk, is generally bullish.

The FOMC minutes released yesterday were largely in line with expectations. While there were some concerns about labor market weakness, there was no mention of the U.S. hard landing into a recession. These minutes have been edited to provide context for Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. Although the address is scheduled for Friday, it is Powell's practice to release the text of his major policy speeches in advance to gauge market reaction and use the actual address to correct any unintended consequences. Given that the address is on Friday, there is a good chance the text will be released today.

The expectation is that the speech will be market-friendly, focusing on how Fed policy has successfully brought down inflation without causing a recession. In a somewhat coincidental timing, BOJ Governor Ueda has been called to the Japanese Diet on Friday. He will be facing tough questions from lawmakers about his interest rate policy, which triggered the largest crash in the Japanese market since the 1987 Black Monday crash and had to be walked back by his deputy. Powell will be keen to avoid a similar market reaction to his speech.

As for the BLS revision to employment numbers, these came in at -818k. As expected, it was a non-event. The numbers cover the period from April 2023 to March 2024, and as far as the market is concerned, this is ancient history with no bearing on current price action. It’s only the “furus” on YouTube and X who talked about it prior as if it were a major market-moving event. If you’ve been following someone who has been saying how the revision would cause a market crash, you might want to seriously consider hitting "Unlike" and "Unsubscribe"—they clearly have no idea what they are talking about.

 

[aurvandil]

Friday 23 Aug 24

The market experienced a sharp sell-off, settling below 4600, with the VIX spiking to 17.55. Two significant volume spikes were observed—first at 23:40, and again at 01:30. This unexpected reversal on volume is notable and should be taken seriously.

The catalyst for the push down appears to be a dramatic shift in the prevailing narrative. Rumors are circulating that in his speech tomorrow, Powell will signal that the Fed intends to cut rates gradually in 25 bps increments. More importantly, he is likely to rule out any 50 bps cuts. This position is based on the fact that, apart from the weak NFP number, there is little macroeconomic evidence to suggest that the U.S. economy is heading for a hard landing into a recession. Despite the lack of concerning macro data, the Fed's approach has reignited fears that it may be acting too slowly, potentially leading to the much-feared hard landing.

It's important to note that Powell has yet to release the text of his speech, a sign that whatever he plans to say is not likely to deviate significantly from his previous statements. Previously, he had indicated there would most likely be three 25 bps cuts for 2024.

Beyond the narrative, the market's recent rapid ascent has left its structure overextended and ripe for a pullback. Unless Powell surprises by supporting a 50 bps cut, the market is likely to use the absence of such support as a catalyst for further selling. The key level to watch below is 5536.50. If the market breaks through that, the next level to watch is 5438.75. If a sell-off occurs, it is highly unlikely to be as severe as the previous one

 

[ctan84]

VIX under 25 nothing to think about one.

 

[Equivocal2011]

Nvidia earnings this week will push SPY to all time highs.
Agree?

 

[aurvandil]

Tuesday 27 Aug 24

The market has been moving sideways following Powell's Jackson Hole address, testing the key 5664 level twice without breaking above it. The market has extended the test level up to 5669. Meanwhile, the VIX has eased slightly but remains elevated at 16.18, indicating that uncertainty persists.

Examining the components of the S&P 500 reveals two primary concerns weighing on the market. The first is the tech sector. Nvidia's earnings are scheduled for release on Wednesday after the market close, and there are growing concerns that the AI narrative, which has driven much of the sector's recent gains, may be losing steam. A disappointing report from Nvidia could lead to a significant correction in the tech sector.

The second issue is consumer discretionary stocks. Although there is still no concrete economic data supporting the idea that the U.S. is heading for a hard landing into a recession, the market remains jittery. During Powell's recent Jackson Hole address, the market reacted positively to his candid acknowledgment of labor market concerns. While he did not directly signal a 50 bps rate cut in September, he made it clear that such a move is on the table. He did this by recounting how FED had just recently tackled the problem of inflation, indirectly reminding the market of the previously unthinkable 50 bps rate hikes.

Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to remain choppy. After Nvidia's earnings, the market will enter the Labor Day long weekend, a significant holiday marking the end of summer. With many participants likely to take time off, the thin trading volume could exacerbate two-way market action. Following the holiday, the NFP report on Friday, Sep 6, will be the next major catalyst. In this environment, it's a good idea to review your portfolio and ensure you are comfortable to ride out any unexpected spikes in volatility.

 

[hyperfuse]

Tuesday 27 Aug 24

The market has been moving sideways following Powell's Jackson Hole address, testing the key 5664 level twice without breaking above it. The market has extended the test level up to 5669. Meanwhile, the VIX has eased slightly but remains elevated at 16.18, indicating that uncertainty persists.

Examining the components of the S&P 500 reveals two primary concerns weighing on the market. The first is the tech sector. Nvidia's earnings are scheduled for release on Wednesday after the market close, and there are growing concerns that the AI narrative, which has driven much of the sector's recent gains, may be losing steam. A disappointing report from Nvidia could lead to a significant correction in the tech sector.

The second issue is consumer discretionary stocks. Although there is still no concrete economic data supporting the idea that the U.S. is heading for a hard landing into a recession, the market remains jittery. During Powell's recent Jackson Hole address, the market reacted positively to his candid acknowledgment of labor market concerns. While he did not directly signal a 50 bps rate cut in September, he made it clear that such a move is on the table. He did this by recounting how FED had just recently tackled the problem of inflation, indirectly reminding the market of the previously unthinkable 50 bps rate hikes.

Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to remain choppy. After Nvidia's earnings, the market will enter the Labor Day long weekend, a significant holiday marking the end of summer. With many participants likely to take time off, the thin trading volume could exacerbate two-way market action. Following the holiday, the NFP report on Friday, Sep 6, will be the next major catalyst. In this environment, it's a good idea to review your portfolio and ensure you are comfortable to ride out any unexpected spikes in volatility.

what do u think be the outlook come Sep 6?

For people holding on to S&P 500 etfs, just hold and ride it through, or sell whilst its at a high currently now, buy when it might dip come Sep 6?

 

[aurvandil]

what do u think be the outlook come Sep 6?

For people holding on to S&P 500 etfs, just hold and ride it through, or sell whilst its at a high currently now, buy when it might dip come Sep 6?

Market moves from event risk to event risk. We have to get through Nivida earnings and the Labour Day long weekend before we get order flow data on market reopen to understand how market is looking at the Sep 6 NFP.

 

[aurvandil]

Friday 30 Aug 24

Nvidia's earnings report sparked an interesting two-sided reaction in the market. The market first pushed down to 5563.25 before rebounding sharply to reach a high of 5663.75, then pulled back sharply from that high. The VIX ended the session at 15.65, which is below the one-year median.

The market is currently at an inflection point, having moved sideways within a range since August 15. Yesterday's price action following Nvidia's earnings traversed the breadth of this range, ultimately settling near the range's midpoint of 5602.75. With the Labor Day long weekend approaching, expectations are for thin trading volumes and for the market to remain confined within the range.

For those who have been long and enjoyed gains from the bull run since April, it may be a good time to step back and consider the broader outlook for the rest of the year. The market is at a crossroads, facing uncertainty about its next direction. Two competing narratives dominate the discourse. The first suggests that the Fed has managed to time its policies perfectly, avoiding a recession that could hurt earnings. The second narrative warns that the Fed's actions may have come too late, potentially leading the U.S. into a recession that would negatively impact earnings. Current economic data supports the first narrative, but the market is simply not able to shake the second narrative.

The likely reason that the second narrative continues to endure despite the lack of empirical data is the upcoming U.S. elections. The period following Labor Day marks the traditional start of the U.S. Presidential Election season. From now until the elections in November, there will be nonstop media coverage and political ads from both parties. Historically, the actual outcome of the elections has had little direct impact on market performance, with record highs achieved under both the Trump and Biden administrations. However, the nonstop political coverage has a significant impact on market sentiment. Both sides of the political spectrum are pushing narratives that best serve their political interests. The Harris campaign is pushing the first narrative, emphasizing economic success achieved under the current administration. The Trump campaign is pushing the second narrative, warning of an impending crash due to current policies. This type of rhetoric is typical of U.S. Presidential Elections. Expectation therefore is for elevated VIX levels and two-sided market action moving forward. If necessary, it might be a good idea to trim your portfolio and brace for a bumpy ride.

 

[Jirachi]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sp5...t-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8

What do you guys think?

Just ignore all these. Market makers need to do their things. These article throw out so many financial lingos just to scare people

 

[Jirachi]

Just feel like chipping in. World index ETF is never world so as to speak. It is basically US centric. I have observed a few times liao. The major holdings in the world index are just too heavily tilted to US.

Therefore when newbie see the English word world index do more observations or play a bit and you come to your own conclusion. To me world index == US unless they can balance out their top holdings a bit to be more diversified.

World index is almost 70-75% US big tech. At this rate, I chose to go with a US large-mid cap ETF. Amanda Prime USA is a good example.

 

[sohguanh]

what do u think be the outlook come Sep 6?

For people holding on to S&P 500 etfs, just hold and ride it through, or sell whilst its at a high currently now, buy when it might dip come Sep 6?

For me US stocks,ETFs I do sell some when reach my target percentage. No dividends or kena tax 30% capital gains is the game. Lock in some. When it drop then go in again. This is capital gains game for me.