*Official* SGXcafe Thread

Aventad0r

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yup, by extension VAR can be a measure of risk

In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

I guess the spread is the amount that we might lose
 

StockBot

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dont be too worried about beta and variance

u can put 100% of your $$$ into a single stock with low beta and variance but your portfolio will still be very risky due to holding only 1 stock


you can spread out your money and buy 10 stocks, but all 10 of them are small cap marine stocks or related to oil and gas, your portfolio will still be risky
 

w1rbelw1nd

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VAR, VALUE AT RISK, 顾名思义,refers to the losses your portfolio/security/asset may suffer at a certain confidence level. It mostly refers to a dollar value of your exposure, or a % of your portfolio/security/asset.

The confidence level is against the asset/security historical returns, and normally e returns are assumed to be normal distribution. Very poor assumption on individual stock.

Sent from OnePlus A0001 using GAGT
 

w1rbelw1nd

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Copy and paste from stockbot

Here, we computed the 99% monthly value at risk using the variance-covariance method based on the last 3 years data.
Basically, it meant that based on historical data, it is 99% confident that you will NOT lose more than VaR % of your portfolio in a month. Of course, the lower the VaR, the better it is because it would mean lower risk. 

Sent from OnePlus A0001 using GAGT
 

Darkzi0n

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I'm sorry, got error ah? Share leh, we're all here to learn!

VaR and VAR are different.. notice the small 'a'? VaR is Value at Risk. VAR is varaiance.

the small 'a' is standard notation in statistics... not bcos sgxcafe creator like to type LiKE a FaG.
 
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StockBot

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Also to add the sgxcafe the value at risk is just for reference only
Actual will be very different

Like my current portfolio VAR may be only 10-15%

But if a repeat of 2007 GFC stock portfolios can drop 30-50%
 

Aventad0r

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VaR and VAR are different.. notice the small 'a'? VaR is Value at Risk. VAR is varaiance.

the small a is standard notation... not bcos sgxcafe create like to type LiKE a FaG.

but how come they use the same formula ah? is it because under different context?
 

StockBot

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But also good to understand variance, since its the base or basic in terms of this fuction

Variance is layman terms is how wildly your portfolio will swing
A zero variance portfolio would be 100% cash
U hold 100k today, 365 everyday the portfolio is 100k

If u hold 100% stocks, your variance is high
Everyday your value can swing up to 2%

So far the newer users, u all get this point?
 

StockBot

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But also good to understand variance, since its the base or basic in terms of this fuction

Variance is layman terms is how wildly your portfolio will swing
A zero variance portfolio would be 100% cash
U hold 100k today, 365 everyday the portfolio is 100k

If u hold 100% stocks, your variance is high
Everyday your value can swing up to 2%

So far the newer users, u all get this point?

To me, my portfolio can swing 1-2% per day
So in a full year, i might sometimes expect to see my portfolio down 20% at most

That idea, is kinda like value at risk
 

StockBot

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anyway at the end of the day what matters the most still is XIRR
your rate of return

your beta low, VAR low... but overall lose $$$ also gg
 

xersion

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Frequently Asked Questions

I regularly receive questions related to SGXcafe and often the same questions are asked over and over again, hence I think it is time to consolidate them in one place. This article will serve as a placeholder for FAQ and I will update this article as I receive more questions.

How do I use SGXcafe?
While I constantly add new features to SGXcafe, they will be centered around two themes: Helping you manage your portfolio better and assisting you in making better investment decisions. Read here for more information. I intend to write another article listing all features of SGXcafe in the near future.

How should I handle stock splits?
This is what I would do:
1. Sell the stock (under the old stock code) at cost
2. Buy back the stock (under the new stock code) at the same total cost

Example: You previously brought 10 shares of company A at SGD 2 each, and it does a 1-to-2 stock split. You should:
1. Enter a sell transaction for 10 shares of that stock at SGD 2 each under the old stock code
2. Enter a buy transaction of 20 shares of company A at SGD 1 each under the new stock code

I understand that this can be annoying but since I do not have accurate stock split data, it is not possible to automate this.

How should I account for scrip dividends, bonus shares, rights issues, etc?
You can simply enter a buy transaction at price SGD 0 and maybe add a note to yourself for clarity. Although SGXcafe will give you a warning by visually highlighting the price in red, it is fine to ignore it. It is there just in case you have made a mistake in entering the price.

Why didn't I receive the daily market update email from SGXcafe?
Please ensure that you whitelisted sgxcafe.com with your email provider (i.e. Gmail, Yahoo Mail, Hotmail, etc) so that it doesn't accidentally end up in the spam folder. Also, in your email preferences under Market Updates, check that you have selected either Daily or Weekly for Email Frequency.

Will there be a mobile app for SGXcafe?
I am also very interested in creating an iOS and/or Android app for SGXcafe, but the development of an app can be rather time-consuming. Since SGXcafe is essentially a one-man show and I am only working on SGXcafe during my free time, I have limited time and have to prioritize where to allocate them. For now, there are still many other features I would like to add to SGXcafe. However, be assured that this is certainly something that would happen some time in the future.

What is the meaning of a particular technical term used in SGXcafe?
Find it here: Definitions of technical terms

What is the formula used to compute the metric I saw in iScreener?
Find it here: Definitions of metrics

Why was SGXcafe created?
SGXcafe was created originally as a personal project to help me manage my personal portfolio and make better investment decisions.
I decided to share it because it grew to something which I believe many others can benefit from.

Why is SGXcafe free? Will SGXcafe always remain free?
It is my intention to freely share knowledge right from the start. And I will do my very best to keep it free, but we all know that nothing is truly free and someone has to bear the costs in one form or another. For now, it is dependent on advertising, donations, and my own savings. I am hoping that in the near future, advertising can cover 100% of the operating costs, or I might have to look for alternatives. The bulk of SGXcafe's costs come from the licensing fees; please read this article if you'd like to understand more.

I have questions that are not answered here. How can I ask them?
Feel free to send me a message. I will be happy to answer your questions.

Happy investing!
 

neolaw

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How to share my portfolio

Hi,

How do I share my portfolio?

Total cost: 30K+
Loss (ex Div): 14.77%
Loss (in Div): 9.23%

It is just a bit more than one year old (started at April last year).
 

StockBot

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Hi,

How do I share my portfolio?

Total cost: 30K+
Loss (ex Div): 14.77%
Loss (in Div): 9.23%

It is just a bit more than one year old (started at April last year).

Under settings u can choose your preference
 

Fish_I_Am

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After 1 long year my portfolio including dividends is finally in the green. Power of CD :s12:

Still underperforming though :s22:
 
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