*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

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Maeda_Toshiie

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People are worried apple prices could fall another 20%. This happened in Japan, literally. When there is deflation, people postpone purchases. So supermarket or stock market is no different.

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If people can prognostigate the bottom, then by all means hold back and then throw in the kitchen sink when the bottom is reached.

Unfortunately, I cannot determine the bottom and do not believe that I can do find the bottom*, so I just stick to a pre-formulated plan.


*Most people cannot either but think that they can. Hence they will forever be at the sidelines waiting or engage in FOMO.
 

revhappy

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If people can prognostigate the bottom, then by all means hold back and then throw in the kitchen sink when the bottom is reached.

Unfortunately, I cannot determine the bottom and do not believe that I can do find the bottom*, so I just stick to a pre-formulated plan.


*Most people cannot either but think that they can. Hence they will forever be at the sidelines waiting or engage in FOMO.
I agree with you and I am also on the same boat. I was merely pointing to BBC's observations about apple Vs stock. They are all the same. If there was fear that apples prices are going to crash, people will stop eating apples and wait for an even better deal. Especially, if your bedroom is fully stocked with apples because you thought prices will keep going up.

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churnmaster

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All you can say is that it’s better to buy when the price is lower, if you’re trying to time markets. It’s a greater time, not necessarily the greatest.

But you make a good point. Why do people find it easy to buy more apples at the supermarket when they go on sale, but they do the opposite and sell stocks when they’re on sale? (Are these people raiding their refrigerators and selling their apples when their price at the supermarket is lower? ;)) It’s the same basic principle. When something is less expensive, how about buying some more and stocking up? Toilet paper, cans of corn, beer, shares of stock, toothpaste.... They’re all the same in this respect.

You are right, one should buy more when its cheaper. However, at the same time its also important to sell some when it hits your target price level on a regular basis. Because holding for long term can become real long like in Japan.

Coming to ...... Toilet paper, cans of corn, beer, toothpaste ... these are tangible assets which have a utility value. Shares are just paper can easily become 0, so they are not the same as the other stuff in the list.
 

BBCWatcher

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Coming to ...... Toilet paper, cans of corn, beer, toothpaste ... these are tangible assets which have a utility value. Shares are just paper can easily become 0, so they are not the same as the other stuff in the list.
Individual stocks can crash to zero, sure. But the entire developed world's business activities (IWDA)? That's not likely, and it's probably less likely than the chance that you're the proud owner of a box of canned corn contaminated with some highly concentrated poison.

Analogies are always imperfect to some degree, but on that score the analogy holds up.
 

Calpha K

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Wow! That is a great post! I think the utility of bonds in a portfolio is to make you sleep well at night, during falls like today. My portfolio is down more than 4k today, just one day, but it is comforting to know that I have fixed income in my portfolio that is steady.

nOtVgOgl.jpg

Where are your fixed income in?
 

revhappy

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Where are your fixed income in?
My fixed income is INR denominated bank fixed deposits in India, worth about 400k SGD. I also have some 100k SGD worth Indian equity unit trusts and some 60k in global equities unit trusts in my employer pension scheme. So total about 800k networth. No house, no CPF or anything else.

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Calpha K

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My fixed income is INR denominated bank fixed deposits in India, worth about 400k SGD.

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That means you're at around 50-50 stocks bonds?
 

Calpha K

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What's the rationale?

If I'm not wrong you are but in your 40s?

Also, this allocation seems rather off for the amount of advocation you place on equities (based on your postings)
 

revhappy

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What's the rationale?

If I'm not wrong you are but in your 40s?

Also, this allocation seems rather off for the amount of advocation you place on equities (based on your postings)
My risk tolerance is low and my skills arent great. So I have to be conservative. I dont personally suggest 110-age as a one size fits all for everyone. Every person should find their own percentage based on risk tolerance and risk taking ability and then stick with the ratio.

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limster

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What's the rationale?

If I'm not wrong you are but in your 40s?

Also, this allocation seems rather off for the amount of advocation you place on equities (based on your postings)

he also doesn't own property, so his emergency funds need to be more in order to cover housing costs.
 

revhappy

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he also doesn't own property, so his emergency funds need to be more in order to cover housing costs.
True.

I think the 110-age is strictly for your retirement portfolio. But before retirement there are other milestones like buying a house, kids education etc. Those need to be more secure.

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KeytoFreedom

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Hi Shiny and all,

Is it worth to get the NY07100X via Mini-Auction ( its 5 years, coupon 3.125%) ?
i've read the FAQ on the SGS website but still don't understand how it works. Can someone experienced pse advise how much i need to pay and how much i will get upon maturity....i read about the 115% i need to pay, am quite confused...thank you!

-
 

BBCWatcher

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Is it worth to get the NY07100X via Mini-Auction ( its 5 years, coupon 3.125%) ?
Do you want a yield of ~2.3% on a ~46 month AAA rated Singapore government bond? If you like that offer, buy it. If not, don't.

Can someone experienced pse advise how much i need to pay and how much i will get upon maturity....i read about the 115% i need to pay, am quite confused...thank you!
When you place a non-competitive bid, you will have to pony up 115% of the face value of the bond. That's partly because market interest rates are at about 2.3% for this type of bond, but the bond coupon is higher. So you will have to pay above face value (higher than par), which effectively drives down the coupon yield (3.125%) to current market interest rates (~2.3%).

Anyway, just focus on whether you want ~2.3% on a ~46 month bond or not, because that's what this sale is.

And another question is whether i can use SRS to buy the NY07100X ...seems can only use cash?
You can, but you have to visit a bank branch and find somebody who can locate the correct paper form. And you have to do that tomorrow (Friday, October 26, 2018) since the auction is on Monday.
 

KeytoFreedom

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BBCWatcher, thanks for advise....how you know the yield will be around 2.3%? so the auction is quite risky right - since i will need to take the price per the auction outcome , i.e. i cannot back out of the deal if i don't like the price? thanks again!
 

BBCWatcher

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BBCWatcher, thanks for advise....how you know the yield will be around 2.3%?
Because the Monetary Authority of Singapore publishes the going market yield for the benchmark 5 year bond every business day, on its Web site, and that's the current market yield.

so the auction is quite risky right - since i will need to take the price per the auction outcome , i.e. i cannot back out of the deal if i don't like the price? thanks again!
No, it's not risky at all. It's actually the least risky item you can buy with Singapore dollars, because it's the safest place to park Singapore dollars. These AAA-rated Singapore government bonds trade within a very narrow range. And placing a non-competitive bid means you're assured that, if you're allocated bonds (which in all likelihood you will be, fully), you'll get the very best yield that anybody obtains in Monday's auction.

If you'd commit suicide because the best yield ends up being "only" 2.28% in Monday's auction, then don't buy this bond.
 
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