*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

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Thoreldan

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What drives the price movement of etf ?
Is it the demand/supply of the etf itself on an exchange ?
Or is it based on the index it's tracking ?

E.g. huge demand for es3 on sgx
But sti is falling.
So will es3 price go up or down ?

Sorry for noobish question...
 

tangent314

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Typically it would be the index +/- tracking error.
Demand and supply has little effect on the ETF price, because demand and supply will be met by the market maker if the orders are priced appropriately.
 

swan02

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international bond diversification

Need help with bond ETFs.

1. Asset allocation 20% equity/80% bonds
2. Have international equity position of 60% of the equity component.
3. I do not have confidence in ABF in buffering my equity as they barely moved as evidenced in the recent trade war upheaval and the past. However, will keep some percentage to cover my SG equity positions. Instead, I blend in SG equity with REITS, and MBH to diversify the SG component though also aware of the high correlation to equity when market do crash but are great diversifiers when market doesn't crash.
4. So what ETFs NOT US domiciled, that I can opt for that has the highest bang to protect the equity component ? I'm leaning towards IGLO but this is not hedged to SGD. Currency risk in fixed income when hedged has huge benefits over unhedged equity.
5. Knowing that the SGD is made up largely of USD and many other currencies, perhaps a blend of different country bond etfs such as ?
6. Looking at AGGU as substitute because it is hedged into USD and sort of act as ballast to my international exposure. However, still exposes me to significant currency risk.
7. So what can I do further to ensure that my large fixed income exposure will not be destroyed by currency risks and perform its role as ballast to my SG and international equity exposure ?
 

Helicopter

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Reposted with emphasis added for the one person who might still be confused....



Hint: The U.S. estate tax is a U.S. tax. Sales, goods and services, value added, wealth, gift, inheritance, income, excise, import.... there's a very long list of tax types. But there are no U.S. taxes of any sort in the situations described.

I'm one who's still confused. Is there no witholding tax if I buy US treasuries?
How should a Singaporean receive his USD salary working in South East Asia? I wouldn't want to put it in a bank overseas. Is crediting the money to a Singapore bank better?

Aside from that, what is a recommended suggestion for us to do to keep the money safe? Buy US treasuries or the corporate bond Shiny suggested? Is there no witholding tax as well? I'm not taking about investing it in a stock ETF, I'm talking about the bond component so to speak. Liquidity to buy stock if the market collapses will be good.
 
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Hi all,

I think the time has arrived. Planning to start DCAing my warchest.. At maybe 1% every week? Will you still recommend IWDA as the safest avenue if I go about this plan? Or will you choose an assortment of ETFs.. My thinking is if I can DCA through the next few years, meanwhile accumulating more funds to invest, it should be profitable if say after 10 years or so.

Will appreciate any comments!
 

gnailiy

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Hi all,

I want to start DCA-ing to IWDA. Usually people have a e$saver account (SGD) & a USD settlement account to buy US stocks. I understand that we need to maintain the SGD$1000 in the e$saver account. Do you maintain the USD$2000 min. balance in the USD settlement account?

I was recommended to get the USD settlement account to trade US stocks to avoid the high fx rates charged by the bank. If you have both accounts, when you top up the USD account from the e$saver account, doesn't the same FX rate apply?

Thank you in advance.
 

havetheveryfun

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Hi all,

I want to start DCA-ing to IWDA. Usually people have a e$saver account (SGD) & a USD settlement account to buy US stocks. I understand that we need to maintain the SGD$1000 in the e$saver account. Do you maintain the USD$2000 min. balance in the USD settlement account?

I was recommended to get the USD settlement account to trade US stocks to avoid the high fx rates charged by the bank. If you have both accounts, when you top up the USD account from the e$saver account, doesn't the same FX rate apply?

Thank you in advance.

dont need min balance in settlement accounts, only normal banking accounts need
 

gnailiy

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dont need min balance in settlement accounts, only normal banking accounts need

I see. Okay thank you for clarifying. I did some searching online, and I think the teller confused the settlement account with the FCYe$saver account.

FCYe$saver account is the one that require min. USD$2000 deposit
 

ChinoGirl

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Hi everyone,

My Standard Chartered account will be ready mid of next week. I have finished reading Shiny Thing’s e-book, and have drawn up my allocation (35% global stocks, 35% local stocks and 30% local bonds) according to the age rule.

a) 35% in iShares Core MSCI World ETF (IWDA)
b) 35% in SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (ES3)
c) 30% in Nikko Asset Management SGD Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETF (MBH)

I will be starting out with a DCA amount of SGD1000 each into (a) and (b), and SGD 850 into (c). DCA will be done round robin style (accumulate funds). First month SGD1000 into (a), second month SGD1000 into (b) and third month SGD750 into (c), and the cycle repeats.

Balancing will be done twice a year in mid of May and November.

Questions:
1) The brokerage which I have shortlisted for all the 3 funds will be bought via SCB. Should there be diversification among the brokerages?

2) I need help with the step-by-step calculation of the cost of brokerage commission too.

a) To buy SGD1000 worth of (a),
1 share= USD54.50.
Exchange rate in Google is 1USD to SGD1.37. How do I estimate the forex spread from SCB (I recall reading in one of the threads that it is about 3%)?
Final cost of trade to SCB= step-by-step calculation, please?

b) To buy SGD1000 worth of (b).
Per unit is SGD 3.173. Therefore 1 lot of 100 shares is SGD 317.30.
Final commission per trade is
(0.25% + 0.04%)* 1.07 = 0.2568% of final investment amount +(SGD10*1.07)= SGD11.71?

Is the working correct?


3) Do I have to ensure that the cost of my brokerage costs amounts to 1% or less of invested amount? If yes, what is the recommended way to do this? I am not able to increase the amount used for DCA.

Thank you for taking the time to reply to my lengthy questions.:)
 

Shiny Things

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So does anyone remember about a year-and-a-half back when some clown decided to squat on joshuagiersch dot com and use it to sell pirated copies of Rich by Retirement?

Sometimes the good guys win.

snapnames2.png


I think the time has arrived. Planning to start DCAing my warchest.. At maybe 1% every week?
Er mate, 1% a week? Two problems with that:

1) It's going to take two years to deploy your full warchest, by which time markets will probably be higher;
2) Unless your warchest is gigantic, you're going to be paying a lot of transaction fees for that.

I'd do 15% to 25% a month.

Need help with bond ETFs.

1. Asset allocation 20% equity/80% bonds

That's an incredibly conservative allocation; it's one step above guns and canned goods. Why so conservative?

3. I do not have confidence in ABF in buffering my equity as they barely moved as evidenced in the recent trade war upheaval and the past.

That's exactly the point. The point of bond ETFs is that they don't move much when equity ETFs move.

4. So what ETFs NOT US domiciled, that I can opt for that has the highest bang to protect the equity component [snip a whole bunch of other questions, come on]

I think you're overthinking this A LOT. You're looking for currency hedges (which by definition will reduce your returns) but you're not even trying to hedge back to SGD... you're buying random ETFs and not thinking about what's in them... you're buying hefty chunks of negative-yielding European and Japanese government debt, which is only worthwhile if you think the currency's going to appreciate, but then saying you want to hedge back to dollars...

Look, I'll be honest, I'm not sure what you're trying to do, and that makes it difficult to suggest an appropriate ETF. I'd almost go back to first principles and say "what are you trying to do with this money in the first place, and why do you have such a huge bond allocation?"

If you'd rather I not go back to first principles, tell me what you're after:
* Do you want currency exposure to SGD, USD, a wide range of currencies, or don't care?
* Do you want govvies, corporate bonds, a mix, or don't care?

What drives the price movement of etf ?
Is it the demand/supply of the etf itself on an exchange ?
Or is it based on the index it's tracking ?

Not a noob question at all. It's a little of column A, a lot of column B.

Like anything else, the price of an ETF linked to an index moves up and down based entirely on supply and demand. The difference with an index-linked ETF is that there’s a market maker stepping in to supply new shares if the price goes up too far, or to buy shares if the price goes down too far.

have a query on MBH etf. given the sgd bond prices have gone up quite abit over the last couple of months, why do we not see any increase in MBH pricing?
I don’t think this is correct. MBH is up about 2% since the beginning of 2019, and it’s gone basically tick-for-tick with its benchmark. In the screenshot below, MBH is the orange line, and its benchmark is the purple line. The data includes reinvested dividends.

mbhprice.png


Interesting observation, thank you
for sharing. Instinctively i would think MBH price is also a matter of supply & demand & market maker actions, thus its price will not efficiently follow market interest rate.

No, this is wrong; and it sort of betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how market-makers work.

ETF market makers arbitrage any differences between the price of the ETF and the underlying asset, whether that’s a pile of equities or a pile of bonds or a pile of oil futures or a pile of bitcoin hidden under a bird-bath or whatever.

As I mentioned above - if demand for the ETF goes up, then that will drive the price of the ETF above the price of the pile of assets that it holds. And if that happens, the market-maker will step in and sell the ETF to bring its price back down in line with the underlying.

Questions:
1) The brokerage which I have shortlisted for all the 3 funds will be bought via SCB. Should there be diversification among the brokerages?

2) I need help with the step-by-step calculation of the cost of brokerage commission too.

3) Do I have to ensure that the cost of my brokerage costs amounts to 1% or less of invested amount? If yes, what is the recommended way to do this? I am not able to increase the amount used for DCA.

Thank you for taking the time to reply to my lengthy questions.:)

  1. Not “diversification”, but some brokers are cheaper than others. If you’re spending $1k or more a month, I recommend using Interactive Brokers for your IWDA, because they’ll work out a bit cheaper.
  2. a) Finger-in-the-air, your spread at Stanchart’s going to be about half a percent I think. Here’s how I’d reckon it: “One share of IWDA is about 75 SGD, so I’m gonna buy about 13 shares, so I’m gonna pay about $975, so my commission’s going to be the minimum ten dollars”. FX spread costs aren’t counted in your commission. As for b) : yeah, that looks about right. But if you’re hung up on figuring out your commissions down to the cent you’re focusing on something that’s not worth your time.
  3. No. Keeping your commissions lower as a percentage of your investment is always good, but what you’re doing is good enough. Don’t get too hung up on the commissions; just make sure that you’re investing regularly.

With Maybank KE discontinuing their monthly investment plan, we can actually still continue to RSS with them, but without the convenience of automation right ? The purchase/sale charges should still be the same if I am not wrong ?
0.12% with a minmum of $10.

Nope, the purchase charges are a lot higher - MBKE MIP had a much lower minimum commission, that’s the problem.

May i know if this is a good diversification(https://advice.moneyowl.com.sg/the-right-portfolios/ )? Understand that the fee is slightly higher than DIY for the convenience of automation. What do u guys think?

No, I’m not a fan. There’s been a lot of noise about these portfolios on here in the last few weeks, but the fees are far too high for what they do. Even if you need an automated service, POSB IS is still better.
 
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ahbuiszxc

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So now that Maybank KE is discontinuing their monthly investment. What's the next option for MIP would be recommended? Also, what about the shares in Maybank? Should I sell it?
 
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decibel.

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Hi, I'm thinking of starting a regular savings plan. I narrow down to the below options.

1) POSB invest saver, $300 In ETF and $200 In bond

2) POSB invest saver $400 in etf and $100 in bond

3) Ocbc BCIP $400 likely spread evenly across 2 counters

I'm looking at long term. I have no cdp account so looking at direct banking instead of diy. Any idea among the three which option is the best ?

Sent from Samsung SM-G920I using GAGT
 

BBCWatcher

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So now that Maybank KE is discontinuing their monthly investment. What's the next option for MIP would be recommended?
There aren't terrific fallback options for what Maybank Kim Eng's Monthly Investment Program was good at ("low dollar" MBH investing, mostly). :(

Also, what about the shares in Maybank? Should I sell it?
No, not if you're a long-term investor. If the investments are not held at CDP you could investigate what it'd cost to shift them to CDP so that (in the future) you could sell them using any broker in Singapore, but that's very optional.

Hi, I'm thinking of starting a regular savings plan. I narrow down to the below options.
1) POSB invest saver, $300 In ETF and $200 In bond
2) POSB invest saver $400 in etf and $100 in bond
3) Ocbc BCIP $400 likely spread evenly across 2 counters

I'm looking at long term. I have no cdp account so looking at direct banking instead of diy. Any idea among the three which option is the best ?
First of all, option #3 seems to be $800/month and options #1 and #2 are $500/month. $800/month is better than $500/month if you're trying to accumulate long-term assets for retirement. But I'll assume $500/month in answering your questions. If you can raise that figure to $800/month, great.

I assume POSB Invest-Saver would be for G3B, the STI stock fund. For bonds, A35 is on offer at POSB Invest-Saver, but I don't recommend it. Just take your bond portion and, as you accumulate $500, buy a Singapore Savings Bond. I don't see any reason why you have to pay either DBS/POSB or Nikko AM Shenton fees in order to invest in Singapore government debt, which you can do already at a more reasonable one-time $2 per transaction with SSBs. (OK, there's one possible reason: if you're already holding $200,000 of SSBs, the maximum allowed. That's not too likely, not yet.)

Do you have any investments or investment plans for non-Singapore domiciled stocks and bonds? Any geographic diversification in your investing, in other words? I think that's quite important. One possible approach would be this (still $500/month):

1. Use POSB Invest-Saver for $100/month into G3B;
2. Every 5 months purchase a $500 Singapore Savings Bond;
3. Every 5 months buy $1,500 worth of IWDA via Standard Chartered.

I picked every 5 months because you can set a calendar reminder to yourself and buy both the SSB and IWDA on the same day. Then just reset the calendar reminder to yourself -- on your smartphone, for example -- to do it again in 5 months.

This is still $500/month of savings flow, but it's arranged like this:

20% Singapore government bonds
20% STI stocks
60% global stocks

And I like that split, but you can adjust it if you wish to suit your own tastes. This is also about the most cost efficient way to invest for the long term using these three horses at $500/month of savings flow.

If POSB Invest-Saver (or somebody else) starts to offer an affordable way to invest in MBH, then you can switch to $100/month into that more affordable way (instead of $500 of SSBs every 5 months).
 

ahbuiszxc

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I'm not in the luck I suppose. As I have only started Maybank MIP for 1 month and received an email regarding the discontinuation of the MIP. 🤣 if I have $300-$500 to invest monthly and I have already bought the SSB. What's the recommendation you would have for me?
 

Fcesca

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Is Interactive Brokers often down on the weekends? The past couple of weekends, I have had trouble connecting (OTP won't send to my phone etc). Wondering if this is normal..? Seems to be fine on weekdays
 

tangent314

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Is Interactive Brokers often down on the weekends? The past couple of weekends, I have had trouble connecting (OTP won't send to my phone etc). Wondering if this is normal..? Seems to be fine on weekdays


Yes, there's often maintenance happening in the weekends.
 

swan02

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Thanks Shiny for replying.

1. I needed a very safe asset allocation as I'm needing to purchase a live-in property in late 2021 or early 2022 but that is not set in stone. It must behave (buffer) when it is most required during a large crash such as the GFC and not dive together with equities because too much corporate bonds was allocated. I do not intend to be ultra conservative by having near cash assets. Hence a 10/90 or 20/80 suits me fine. The bond component largely should be government; corporate bonds especially BBB are frown upon, hence MBH is still acceptable.
2. Goal is to ensure I do not lose money if possible in any year but gives a return that is approximately 3% per year. A full bond allocation is riskier than a 10/90 or a 20/80 and also with poorer risk/return.
3. I follow the vanguard asset allocation where international equities should be buffered by an International fixed income ETF (currency must be hedged). I can't find any international fixed income ETF hedged into SGD, I am looking for the nearest safest such as IGLO to cover my international, but only if it was hedged into SGD. It is almost near perfect for me. I do not wish to complicate things with derivatives to hedge.
4. I still keep my ABF/MBH combo to cover my SG equities. I'm still willing to tolerate its "non or slight" movement, but prefer a more "non correlated" fixed income, or else might as well SSB with zero correlation.
 
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decibel.

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There aren't terrific fallback options for what Maybank Kim Eng's Monthly Investment Program was good at ("low dollar" MBH investing, mostly). :(


No, not if you're a long-term investor. If the investments are not held at CDP you could investigate what it'd cost to shift them to CDP so that (in the future) you could sell them using any broker in Singapore, but that's very optional.


First of all, option #3 seems to be $800/month and options #1 and #2 are $500/month. $800/month is better than $500/month if you're trying to accumulate long-term assets for retirement. But I'll assume $500/month in answering your questions. If you can raise that figure to $800/month, great.

I assume POSB Invest-Saver would be for G3B, the STI stock fund. For bonds, A35 is on offer at POSB Invest-Saver, but I don't recommend it. Just take your bond portion and, as you accumulate $500, buy a Singapore Savings Bond. I don't see any reason why you have to pay either DBS/POSB or Nikko AM Shenton fees in order to invest in Singapore government debt, which you can do already at a more reasonable one-time $2 per transaction with SSBs. (OK, there's one possible reason: if you're already holding $200,000 of SSBs, the maximum allowed. That's not too likely, not yet.)

Do you have any investments or investment plans for non-Singapore domiciled stocks and bonds? Any geographic diversification in your investing, in other words? I think that's quite important. One possible approach would be this (still $500/month):

1. Use POSB Invest-Saver for $100/month into G3B;
2. Every 5 months purchase a $500 Singapore Savings Bond;
3. Every 5 months buy $1,500 worth of IWDA via Standard Chartered.

I picked every 5 months because you can set a calendar reminder to yourself and buy both the SSB and IWDA on the same day. Then just reset the calendar reminder to yourself -- on your smartphone, for example -- to do it again in 5 months.

This is still $500/month of savings flow, but it's arranged like this:

20% Singapore government bonds
20% STI stocks
60% global stocks

And I like that split, but you can adjust it if you wish to suit your own tastes. This is also about the most cost efficient way to invest for the long term using these three horses at $500/month of savings flow.

If POSB Invest-Saver (or somebody else) starts to offer an affordable way to invest in MBH, then you can switch to $100/month into that more affordable way (instead of $500 of SSBs every 5 months).
Hi. Really thanks for your advice I appreciate it very much. May I know why A35 is a no go? And will 100 for G3B be like very little? If I buy every 5 months do I have to time the market? I'm planning to set 800 to 900 per month for investing for retirement actually. Not really keen on ssb because the returns like very low? Just 2.4% for 10 years. Thanks again

Sent from Samsung SM-G920I using GAGT
 

BBCWatcher

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May I know why A35 is a no go?
You’re welcome to pay more for Singapore government bonds (A35), but why would you? The government started offering them directly, in $500 bite sized chunks.

And will 100 for G3B be like very little?
Yes, but evidently you aren’t planning $5,000 per month of savings. :)

If I buy every 5 months do I have to time the market?
No. You just pick the SSB deadline and buy both the SSB and IWDA on that date. If you like my formula.

I'm planning to set 800 to 900 per month for investing for retirement actually.
OK, great. So let’s assume $850/month. You could do $200/month into G3B, one $500 SSB every three months, and the remainder every three months into IWDA. For example.

Not really keen on ssb because the returns like very low? Just 2.4% for 10 years.
Then you won’t like A35 either, because it’s investing in Singapore Government Securities, too. Except you’ve got to pay DBS/POSB and Nikko AM Shenton more.
 
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