Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[coralsg]

If you have a war chest, now’s the time to deploy it, too. Stuff is on sale, and buying when other people are panic selling is good strategy.

Hi Shiny, make I know whether you have any guidance as to when to deploy how much of the warchest, in this type of crazy market. Say for scenario where you have warchest of different sizes.

 

[kram62]

Hi Shiny, make I know whether you have any guidance as to when to deploy how much of the warchest, in this type of crazy market. Say for scenario where you have warchest of different sizes.

Usually can use a system where you invest X% of the warchest if market drop Y%, then if continue to drop unlock next tranche, ... To avoid emptying warchest at once, and avoid waiting too long either.

 

[flowerpalms]

Dont be crazy

all in

tmr will go up

can sell next week quick for fast $$

 

[shallow]

Hi Shiny, make I know whether you have any guidance as to when to deploy how much of the warchest, in this type of crazy market. Say for scenario where you have warchest of different sizes.

1 simple approach to deploy is to use 20% fund to buy for every 10% drop from ATH. Using iwda as example, by the time you deploy 100% of fund, it would've been -50% from ATH(~65$). The average price you gotten for each stock from every 10% drop is $43.58 compared to -50% of $32.5. Granted if you can perfectly time the market, go all in at $32.50 but it is highly unlikely anybody(not me at least) can time it. Using this strategy, not only you wont have to worry about missing the boat, you will get a very fair price for the stock at whatever price it drops to.

At -50% drop, it will be a very real scenario like GFC and anything beyond that, it will most likely be a zombie apocalypse and money dont really matters. If this recession does indeed come, expert are saying this recession wont be at the scale of 08 GFC(because of unregulated loan and whatnot) so -50% is a rather conservative scale.

 

[hwckhs]

Large Spread Warning

The above was taken about 40-min after LSE opened today. Look at the large spread of various world ETFs.

Spread as a percentage of last done price:

• IWDA: 0.48%
• SWRD: 31.27%
• LCWD: 0.37%
• VWRA: 3.77%
• VWRD: 1.05%

A few minutes before I took the screenshot, IWDA, VWRA, VWRD were all having a spread of more than 2%.

Market makers of SWRD must be sleeping with that 31% spread .

It is indeed volatile and exciting today. Beware of the spread though. Maybe either wait for the spread to narrow, or bid in between, if you were to trade.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Hmm - counterpoint, I think the hilariously negative TIPS spreads (and commensurately low forward inflation) are mostly a side-effect of the oil price falling out of bed. (Happy to be proven wrong here though.) The really amazing thing to me is the entire UST curve trading richer than Fed Funds, which is just… wow.

I'm pretty sure the soaring U.S. Treasuries preceded the recent OPEC/Russia news and falling oil price, although the oil markets may have added another exclamation point to U.S. Treasury trends. Oil isn't as important to overall inflation as it once was, so I wouldn't overinterpret it, and I don't think bond markets are.

Actually, one interesting side effect of a crash in oil and gas prices could be Texas's electoral votes. Texas is getting purple-ish. Conventional wisdom suggests 2020 is a little too early for a blue Texas, but sometimes events overtake conventional wisdom.

For those unfortunate souls holding insurance products such as long running endowment plans, non-guaranteed annuities, and whole life insurance policies, I wonder how the insurance carriers' par funds are doing and how divorced from reality the carriers' marketing projections are.

 

[flowerpalms]

If you have already done your monthly investing, dont anyhow just buy more because of the dip.

Stick to your monthly dca and hold

My next investment will be end of this month (for Feb monthly dca)

And i am not going to do anything now

 

[chrisloh65]

Don't use market order means either you buy at too high asking price or sell at too low bidding price since no one want to buy or sell in between (including the market makers)? That is the problem with low liquidity and with ETFs.

spread could be due to low volume

ppl holding and not selling etc

therefore, dont use market order

 

[Geeezz]

song sia the price like gss like that

 

[_death_god]

Hello guys. I recently just did a RSP with FSMone for ES3. In my cash account pending transaction, my order date is 8 March 2020, but the transaction date is To Be Confirmed. The status is ‘Received’ but it seems like FSMone haven’t bought the share for me. My investment holding still reflect 0 in ETF.

Anyone can advise me? Thank you so much.

 

[tesarise]

If you have already done your monthly investing, dont anyhow just buy more because of the dip.

Stick to your monthly dca and hold

My next investment will be end of this month (for Feb monthly dca)

And i am not going to do anything now

Why are you doing Feb dca in march

 

[Okenba]

If you have already done your monthly investing, dont anyhow just buy more because of the dip.

Stick to your monthly dca and hold

My next investment will be end of this month (for Feb monthly dca)

And i am not going to do anything now

Are you talking to Shiny? Because he suggested the Warchest....

I'm just... Really really curious if you're directing your remark to Shiny...

 

[flowerpalms]

Ya i mean march. Feb alrdy done.

Why are you doing Feb dca in march

 

[shallow]

Are you talking to Shiny? Because he suggested the Warchest....

I'm just... Really really curious if you're directing your remark to Shiny...

He disobeying shiny, shiny say can load up

 

[makav31i]

Hello guys. I recently just did a RSP with FSMone for ES3. In my cash account pending transaction, my order date is 8 March 2020, but the transaction date is To Be Confirmed. The status is ‘Received’ but it seems like FSMone haven’t bought the share for me. My investment holding still reflect 0 in ETF.

Anyone can advise me? Thank you so much.

"If the 8th is a business day, the transaction date for the ETF RSP subscription will be on next trading day.
If the 8th falls on a non-business day, the transaction date will take place on the second trading day after the 8th."

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/advice-services/faq/2073/

Wait for tomorrow...Read the FAQ if you got any other questions...

 

[hahaman111]

Standard chartered doesn't combine the transaction fee multiple trades of the same day right?

 

[_death_god]

"If the 8th is a business day, the transaction date for the ETF RSP subscription will be on next trading day.
If the 8th falls on a non-business day, the transaction date will take place on the second trading day after the 8th."

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/advice-services/faq/2073/

Wait for tomorrow...Read the FAQ if you got any other questions...

Alright thank you so much!

 

[livingcharsiew]

How does LSE listed ETFs prices work if they hold US shares but the markets are not opened yet? IWDA, CSPX, VWRA, VUSA all dropped but the US stock market is not open yet?

Is there an arbitrage opportunity if you buy before they open if the anticipated drop is greater than the actual drop when US stock markets open?

 

[shallow]

How does LSE listed ETFs prices work if they hold US shares but the markets are not opened yet? IWDA, CSPX, VWRA, VUSA all dropped but the US stock market is not open yet?

Is there an arbitrage opportunity if you buy before they open if the anticipated drop is greater than the actual drop when US stock markets open?

There are references such as indices futures which open on sunday

E.g before LSE opened today, spy futures already drop 4.7% on sunday night, this drop can be easily seen in iwda opening price

 

[tesarise]

How does LSE listed ETFs prices work if they hold US shares but the markets are not opened yet? IWDA, CSPX, VWRA, VUSA all dropped but the US stock market is not open yet?

Is there an arbitrage opportunity if you buy before they open if the anticipated drop is greater than the actual drop when US stock markets open?

Of course there is. Just like how you can lose money if US drops more than what the futures anticipate