Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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crystalnox

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I know there are differing views on this, but I'd just like to understand why some would recommend Singaporeans to buy ES3 just because it's their local ETF. I don't quite get why we should have exposure to the country we intend to retire in. I thought it might be FX, but apparently that's not significant, if at all relevant.

Is it taxes? Is it our homeground advantage - we are closest to the ground so we would know best when things are going south and we should sell? Would those in the pro-ES3 camp also advise people from other countries to also have some form of local exposure, ignoring market cap and future prospects?

I've been religiously DCAing ES3 for years, and am now considering reallocating my monthly investments, either not buying any more ES3 or reducing its weight in my portfolio to 20% as some have suggested. Not just because of its declining prospects, but also because I've bought a fair bit of local REIT ETF and this thread has taught me that there's massive overlap between the two...
No good reason if you go strictly by logic and the numbers, but humans aren't machines and so we're affected by many familiarity and irrational biases.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/932399/investors-have-fewer-reasons-than-ever-for-home-bias
 

CWL84

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thanks for that..
is EM exposure neccesary? or IWDA will suffice?

If you really need ST's opinion, here is his answer from his previous part 2 thread: (TLDR) EM is a small part of the global markets so it doesn't matter, just select one and stick to it.

I don't think it makes too much difference. I've gone back and forth a bit on this in the past, and where I've landed is:

* Emerging markets are a small weight in global markets. VWRA, which is like IWDA but with emergings in it, only has about 10% of its portfolio in EM.
* Because EM's weight is so small, its outperformance or underperformance doesn't make too much difference.
* Adding EIMI to IWDA just means you're paying two sets of transaction costs.

That said, there is an argument for having some exposure to EM. EMs have underperformed for aaaaaaages, mostly because everyone wants exposure to the go-go US stock market and they've stopped paying attention to Europe, Japan, and every other market except the USA. This will eventually change; EMs will become trendy again, like they were in the mid-2000s. (We can't know when this will happen, though; and to be honest, a big chunk of the EM universe at the moment is godawful NPL-stuffed Chinese banks, which are going nowhere fast.)

And when I updated the book last, VWRA didn't exist; IWDA was the best option for global markets exposure with reinvested dividends.

I think both of them are equally good. But VWRA (which has EM exposure) vs IWDA (which doesn't) will not make any appreciable difference to your long-term returns; the trick is to just pick one and stick to it.
 

hwckhs

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is EM exposure neccesary? or IWDA will suffice?

I have FOMO, and want to own a small piece of every major company in the world, including those from EM. Hence, I choose VWRD (a sibling of VWRA).

Prefer the all-in-one VWRD/VWRA over separate IWDA/EIMI as the former is market cap weighted and not of a fixed weight that you decide. Let the market decide the proper weightage.
 

swan02

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Assuming 60 percent in international and 40 percent local. Applies to Australia. Vanguard will keep approx 20 percent hedged international, 40 percent international and 40 percent local.

I think 20 percent is quite large and FX still plays a part. Just watch recently how quickly iwda and vusd were affected by FX risk. I was buying heaps vusd and banks Singapore and I barely made much with vusd /bkr.b .

Apparently I assume vanguard holds the view FX in shares are great diversification but not too much..... anyways I’ve seen a research paper recommending 37 percent local and 63 percent international for Singapore STI.
I know there are differing views on this, but I'd just like to understand why some would recommend Singaporeans to buy ES3 just because it's their local ETF. I don't quite get why we should have exposure to the country we intend to retire in. I thought it might be FX, but apparently that's not significant, if at all relevant.

Is it taxes? Is it our homeground advantage - we are closest to the ground so we would know best when things are going south and we should sell? Would those in the pro-ES3 camp also advise people from other countries to also have some form of local exposure, ignoring market cap and future prospects?

I've been religiously DCAing ES3 for years, and am now considering reallocating my monthly investments, either not buying any more ES3 or reducing its weight in my portfolio to 20% as some have suggested. Not just because of its declining prospects, but also because I've bought a fair bit of local REIT ETF and this thread has taught me that there's massive overlap between the two...
 

foozgarden

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I think if you study the article in detail the TLDR is to just stick to one and invest diligently, as espoused by many here. There is no clear advantage to choosing one over the other, as the rolling backtest has demonstrated.

If you really need ST's opinion, here is his answer from his previous part 2 thread: (TLDR) EM is a small part of the global markets so it doesn't matter, just select one and stick to it.

I have FOMO, and want to own a small piece of every major company in the world, including those from EM. Hence, I choose VWRD (a sibling of VWRA).

Prefer the all-in-one VWRD/VWRA over separate IWDA/EIMI as the former is market cap weighted and not of a fixed weight that you decide. Let the market decide the proper weightage.

thanks guys, appreciate your views!
 

zoneguard

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I've been religiously DCAing ES3 for years, and am now considering reallocating my monthly investments, either not buying any more ES3 or reducing its weight in my portfolio to 20% as some have suggested. Not just because of its declining prospects, but also because I've bought a fair bit of local REIT ETF and this thread has taught me that there's massive overlap between the two...

This article recommends 80% world, 20% domestic tilt based on data from 16 countries (SG not in dataset):
https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/

Quoting from it:
nstead of overly relying on the past history of the country we live in, we should try to open our minds to what happened to the rest of the world and learn from it. One could always argue if one specific comparison is significant or not, or if a coarse rule of thumb (e.g. 80% global) applies in every case, but at least, this represents a solid foundation of real-life facts and history to reflect upon. The author believes that this study makes a convincing case to seek a high exposure to global (or international) equities, while keeping a tilt towards domestic equities. Some readers might perceive otherwise, but should by now have more factual material to refine their thinking and possible temptations of home country bias.

I believe this is closer to what BBCW recommended compared to Shiny.
 

beefjerky

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Do any of your know if I sell stocks in my CDP/CPF-OA/SRS, can I immediately use the proceeds to purchase other stocks or do I have to wait for it to be settled back into the account? Using POEMS here. Account has GIRO

One more qn: User has CDP and have been receiving e-statements. But when tried to log-in to CDP to see statements online, they say there is no such account. Is there a need to create an online account to access the CDP?
 
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polar27

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The 80% International 20% local tilt is for the stocks component only?

Eg For 30 yr old, age - 110, 80% stocks 20% bonds, so right to assume adjustments to: 64% global stocks/etf 16% local stocks/etf and 20% local bonds?

Tks


This article recommends 80% world, 20% domestic tilt based on data from 16 countries (SG not in dataset):
https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/

Quoting from it:


I believe this is closer to what BBCW recommended compared to Shiny.
 

zoneguard

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The 80% International 20% local tilt is for the stocks component only?

Eg For 30 yr old, age - 110, 80% stocks 20% bonds, so right to assume adjustments to: 64% global stocks/etf 16% local stocks/etf and 20% local bonds?

Tks

Yes, the article which deviates from Shiny's is for stocks. By the way, do you intend to retire here in SG?
 

netsit

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Attempted to transfer IWDA from SCB to IBKR in Apr 2020.

Was subsequently told by both SCB and IBKR that the transfer is not possible, because SCB can only perform the transfer using local UK CREST, whereas IBKR has a mandate to receive all iShares holdings through Euroclear only. To be exact, IBKR can receive GBP holdings using CREST, but iShares holdings cannot be performed through CREST.

Since SCB cannot use anything other than CREST, and IBKR cannot receive iShares through any other means other than Euroclear, the transaction was declined. The transaction was done using the Share Transfer form located on SC Trading Online, and also put in a request to receive positions on IBKR through International Asset Transfer (similar to the instructions in the quote above).

Since there have been successful transfers reported (Sep 2017, Aug 2019 as far as I'm aware), it sounds like something may have changed in settlement instructions for SCB or IBKR.

@those who succeeded - any chance you could assist to ask how the transfer was made, and whether it was using CREST or Euroclear? Also if this method can still be continued moving forward?

@Shiny and other friendly advisors here - caveat is that starting out with SCB and then transferring to IBKR may no longer be feasible.

Hey did you manage to crack this? I am interested to transfer as well.
 

cfleee

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It had to read what you wrote several times because you got it exactly backwards. Crashing interest rates are a reason to pull money out of Stashaway Simple, not to put it in. Stashaway Simple invests in funds that closely track Singapore dollar market interest rates for highly liquid savings. So if you're upset with low interest rates on savings, you'll also be upset with Stashaway Simple's yield. (Maybe even more upset because there's a fund management fee in the mix.)

Related but slightly different question: instead of emergency funds, what about money that's set aside specifically for spending in 5-8 years instead of long-term retirement -- since the timeframe is not long enough for investing in equity, that leaves bonds and cash right? Assuming that the usual hurdle savings accounts have been used, and if I'm not really comfortable with some of the endowment plans, would it make sense to funnel the savings stream all into bonds?

For this scenario where it's not some super long time horizon, do we need to care about the duration of the bond ETFs and mixing them to target some average duration?
 

cassowary18

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Shiny Things

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Hi all, currently I am a student, touched G3B using DBS vicker + cdp.

If I wish to invest in us market, would yr recommend IB, Fsmone, scb or vickers? [...]
Any advice? So far I see that IB is better than the others due to commission fee. However was taken aback by the dividend part, under 100k and the inactivity costs.

If you want to invest: use Stanchart, but also, don’t try picking stocks until you’re comfortable investing in simple, sensible ETFs. Gotta walk before you can run.

If you want to trade—actively buying and selling—then use Interactive Brokers.

Reading Shiny Things' book..
Can't quite decide whether to go with SCB/IB for IWDA - any advice?

The rule of thumb is the same for you as for everyone else. If you’ve got over $100k USD to invest, or you can spend over $1k-ish USD a month, then use IB. Otherwise, use Stanchart.

For ES3, thinking of DBS Vickers Cash Upfront + sell with another brokerage
Why not just use FSMOne’s RSP?

Saxo have all the info you need clearly stated on the website, if you send a mail they actually respond and with the proper and detailed info. The UI is probably the best of the bunch.

The problem with Saxo is that they have stupendously high fees. In addition to their custody fees if you trade non-Singapore stocks, they charge an FX conversion fee on your trade amount of 0.75% each way! That’s HUGE!

Do not use Saxo. I say this over and over again, but they have so many hidden fees and charges that nobody should ever touch them.

Hmm, then which broker should I use (for overseas markets)?
StanChart? IBKR (but $10/month very chor)?

For local trading/investments, FSMone?

I am a beginner with low captial buying CSPX for the long term and probably doing swing trading in the future. I know StanChart cannot short so maybe I have 2 active accounts?

OK, if you’re actively trading, the usual advice changes:
1) Use Interactive Brokers; and,
2) Don’t use CSPX; use the ES futures instead. If you’re looking to actively trade the S&P 500, the ES futures are more liquid, have tighter prices, and trade twenty-three-and-a-half hours a day.



what do u think of crypto?

saw that u are with Ripple now.

Yep, I work for Ripple—which is why I generally don’t comment on crypto markets.


hi ST,

what are you thoughts on investing in
IWDA vs VWRA ?

They’re both perfectly good. I lean toward IWDA, because VWRA is relatively new. Just pick one; they basically perform the same.

also, buying using IB, do we need to move our equities back into SG when we retire?
how is this process?
No. You can just sell them using IB, and withdraw SGD straight from IBKR into your bank account.

Know I might be missing something here, but getting IWDA 90%+EIMI 10% by own seems cheaper than buying 9-10 stocks of VWRA?

So there’s a subtle thing here. Those two choices—10 shares of VWRA, and 9 IWDA + 1 EIMI—have the same underlying portfolio, so they’d track each other basically tick-for-tick... in percentage terms.

As you’ve noticed, they don’t have the same dollar value. 10 shares of VWRA is $843. Nine IWDAs and one EIMI is $576. But if you put $10,000 into one portfolio, vs $10,000 into the other portfolio, you’d end up with basically the same profit or loss. You get fewer shares of VWRA, but each share is worth more. Both ways, you end up with the same amount of money invested in “90% developed markets and 10% emerging markets”.

Related but slightly different question: instead of emergency funds, what about money that's set aside specifically for spending in 5-8 years instead of long-term retirement -- since the timeframe is not long enough for investing in equity

I’d disagree with that. With interest rates as low as they are, five to eight years is long enough that you could use a standard “110 minus your age” rule to do the allocation—maybe with a shorter time horizon, though.

Let’s say you have a big, known expense coming up in five years; you could set aside a pot of money for that particular expense, and invest it as though you were five years before retirement, as if you were a sixty-year-old.

For this scenario where it's not some super long time horizon, do we need to care about the duration of the bond ETFs and mixing them to target some average duration?
Oh god no, not least because in Singapore there are no target-duration bond ETFs. But also, this would be WAY over-complicating it. A simple rule of thumb is good enough:

If you need the cash in:
* Under three years: keep it in the bank.
* Three to five years: keep it all in bonds.
* More than five years: Keep it in a mix of stocks and bonds.

May I know why people are willing to buy negative yielding bonds? Isn’t keeping the cash under the mattress (in a very secure house!) a better investment?

Maybe if you’re a small investor, yep. But as soon as the amounts get larger... well, how big’s your mattress?

Imagine you run a bond unit trust and you have, let’s say, a billion euros that you have to invest in euro-denominated bonds. You can either leave it in the bank where it earns negative half a percent; you can buy a Microsoft bond that yields negative a quarter of a percent; or you can ask your bank to give you your billion euros in the folding stuff.

Even though the Microsoft bond has a negative yield, it’s still a quarter of a percent better than leaving it in the bank—two and a half million euros a year better!

Storing a billion euros in cold hard cash though: that gets difficult. If you take it in 100-euro notes, that’s about ten fully-loaded pallets of cash. You’re going to have to rent vault space to secure those, and that gets very expensive very fast. In fact, you’ll probably end up paying around one percent to vault that much cash (based on the costs for vaulting a similar amount of gold, which is much more compact, so it’s easier to store)… so you might as well just buy the Microsoft bond.

A few companies actually tried this when Eurozone interest rates first went negative—there was a brief run on vault space in Germany and Switzerland as people tried to do the mattress trade. It didn’t work, though; someone actually did the math and figured out that, because of how inefficient it can be to store giant amounts of cash, that interest rates could go as low as minus two percent before companies and fund managers started doing the mattress trade in any meaningful size.

Does this affect decisions with respect to MBH / A35?

No. MBH and A35 don’t have any negative-yielding bonds in them.

I know there are differing views on this, but I'd just like to understand why some would recommend Singaporeans to buy ES3 just because it's their local ETF. I don't quite get why we should have exposure to the country we intend to retire in.

Because it’s a pretty good cost-of-living hedge. If Singapore’s economy does well over the long term, the stock market will (generally) do well too; so you won’t miss out on the gains if the economy does well and house prices go up, the SGD strengthens, cost of living rises, etc etc etc.

Now, there’s a lot of nuance here and a lot of objections (“it’s not a perfect hedge”; “but Singapore’s market is so small”). But as a rule, if you live in a developed market and you’re planning to retire there, it makes sense to have at least some allocation to the local economy.

Not just because of its declining prospects, but also because I've bought a fair bit of local REIT ETF and this thread has taught me that there's massive overlap between the two...

The better option would be to sell the REIT ETF. REITs are just a subset of the Singaporean market; if you switched your money from your REIT ETF to ES3, you’d get a broader exposure within Singapore, and less concentrated exposure to the real-estate sector.

Thanks for sharing your experience, & please continue to post such fresh views.

Please ignore those losers here & don't put to heart. I suppose they are jealous of your performance?

Streetfighter, since you seem to be new: Chrisloh65 is not welcome in this thread, and please don’t engage with him in here. He’s an active trader who claims he’s done quite well for himself, which if it’s true is admirable—but this is not a thread for active traders.

He even has a fan thread, which he doesn’t post in even though he’d be very welcome there, because he wants the attention that comes from starting fights in this thread. He has places where he can share his experience and his views, but he doesn’t use them, and that’s why he isn’t welcome in this thread.
 

newjersey

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hi ST,

could you tell us why u switch from the financial markets to crypto, specifically, Ripple?

I remember you did not have a sustainable view of it in your earlier writings.

Was this switch in career due to any change in your views, needs & lifestyle?
 

razoreigns

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Maybe if you’re a small investor, yep. But as soon as the amounts get larger... well, how big’s your mattress?

Imagine you run a bond unit trust and you have, let’s say, a billion euros that you have to invest in euro-denominated bonds. You can either leave it in the bank where it earns negative half a percent; you can buy a Microsoft bond that yields negative a quarter of a percent; or you can ask your bank to give you your billion euros in the folding stuff.

Even though the Microsoft bond has a negative yield, it’s still a quarter of a percent better than leaving it in the bank—two and a half million euros a year better!

Storing a billion euros in cold hard cash though: that gets difficult. If you take it in 100-euro notes, that’s about ten fully-loaded pallets of cash. You’re going to have to rent vault space to secure those, and that gets very expensive very fast. In fact, you’ll probably end up paying around one percent to vault that much cash (based on the costs for vaulting a similar amount of gold, which is much more compact, so it’s easier to store)… so you might as well just buy the Microsoft bond.

A few companies actually tried this when Eurozone interest rates first went negative—there was a brief run on vault space in Germany and Switzerland as people tried to do the mattress trade. It didn’t work, though; someone actually did the math and figured out that, because of how inefficient it can be to store giant amounts of cash, that interest rates could go as low as minus two percent before companies and fund managers started doing the mattress trade in any meaningful size.

This is interesting. How do banks manage to implement negative interest rates? Won't there be a revolt from the general public? With negative rates, loan rates might turn negative too and banks will have to start paying the borrower to draw a loan (although that will never happen since there is a floor rate). In my mind, when interest rates are negative, there should be deflation, and things are getting cheaper to buy. In such scenario, if you keep your money in bonds, you get poorer by the day, why not increase consumption?
 

cassowary18

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In such scenario, if you keep your money in bonds, you get poorer by the day, why not increase consumption?

That's the point, basically. Central banks set negative interest rates to spur consumption so as to drive economic growth.

Banks don't charge negative interest rates on consumer deposits, but it might be cleverly disguised as a service charge or other fee.
 

chrisloh65

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Shiny Things,
Now you are repeating your lies again?

When did I mention that I am an active trader? Could you please provide evidence to back up your claim by showing the post I posted which I mentioned that I am an active trader?

This is the 3rd time I am asking you to back up your claim - If you can't, then that just shows that you are lying here isn't it?

Don't understand why you need to resort to lying and smearing me to discredit me just because I am holding different investment views from you and you are incapable of making as much money as me from investment in stocks?[/QUOTE]

I am repeating here again: I invest directly in stocks and buy low sell high, usually holding a stock for a few years (may be up to 10 years period or more). Can somebody who hold a stock for several years called "active trader"? No, I am sure this is not according to investment community's definition! - and hence you are lying!

On the other hand, I am reminding others here that the approach to "DCA blindly into ETFs" is a long-term ponzi scheme like Bernie Madoff! Beware!

You can read an article about it here:

ETFs turn stockmarket into the ultimate Ponzi scheme
ALAN KOHLER

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...e/news-story/fbbb10e50ac6893d7bbfaa81ea88eded

And another one by the famous Michael Burry here:

The Big Short’s Michael Burry Explains Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs
By Reed Stevenson


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...plains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos

Streetfighter, since you seem to be new: Chrisloh65 is not welcome in this thread, and please don’t engage with him in here. He’s an active trader who claims he’s done quite well for himself, which if it’s true is admirable—but this is not a thread for active traders.

He even has a fan thread, which he doesn’t post in even though he’d be very welcome there, because he wants the attention that comes from starting fights in this thread. He has places where he can share his experience and his views, but he doesn’t use them, and that’s why he isn’t welcome in this thread.

When did I mention that I am an active currency trader? Could you please provide evidence to back up your claim by showing the post I posted which I mentioned that?
If you can't, then that just shows that you are lying here isn't it?
Don't understand why you need to resort to lying and smearing me to discredit me just because you are incapable of making as much money as me from investment?

Shiny Things said:
He also says he's an active currency trader and has enough time to make long/short equity punts. I don't think he's telling the truth about any of it.

Don't give him oxygen; just report him and move on. These jackasses eventually get bored and go back to EDMW eventually, if they don't get themselves banned first.


Three axes here, yikes.

Anyway.
* FSMOne is pretty good for buy-and-hold of local stocks, whether you're small or large.
* For active trading of local stocks: IDK. Maybe ask over in SSI.
* For buy-and-hold of global stocks: Stanchart below $100k, IBKR if you're over $100k.
* For active trading of global stocks: IBKR's not necessarily the cheapest, but their smart-routing makes them the best.

Erm. Not sure where you're getting those numbers from. Looking at the Bloomy I see VUSD actually yielding a bit more than 0.85 * VOO. There could be any number of reasons, though.

I'm gay, so the answer is "zero". Also: don't be a creep.
 
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