Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[tesarise]

I know most here advocates and practices the DCA method.

But just thinking out loud, would it be better if one is to go full cash in situations like this? Take profit and wait it out instead.

Then start your DCA at some point in the near future.

I know people will say it's hindsight and all that but it is not hard to see the market dropping at some point with this virus thing going on, even before the actual drop.

If you are very confident it will go lower, by all means cash out now and go back in later.
Don't live with the regret of what you "should have done" of it played out as you predicted.

But also don't blame the people here if you didn't manage to go back in at a lower price

 

[Prof. Utonium]

I am not saying we need to wait or time for the lowest point. But like i said, a drop is bound to happen at some point. Just walk around your neighbourhood malls, or/and read the news on the worsening situation to know the market won't continue to go up forever.

So take your money off the table, when you are comfortable, enter in batches and not all in, that will be the prudent approach.

I'm pretty sure some of those who have been DCA-ing would have thought to themselves that they should have seen it coming. It's painful regardless of whether you have a long term DCA approach or not.

It is sure painful but no point harping on it. Mid last year I thought it would be the highest but end of year it shot up.

Last week I thought that would be the lowest but it went down even more. I received notifications, looked it up. Oh dear loss $20k. I ordered my 3rd pint of Guiness.

 

[drkcynic]

If you are very confident it will go lower, by all means cash out now and go back in later.
Don't live with the regret of what you "should have done" of it played out as you predicted.

But also don't blame the people here if you didn't manage to go back in at a lower price

Nobody is pointing any fingers. You are ultimately responsible for your own money.

Just trying to put forth a different view point. DCA-ing works in theory, but I'm just trying to understand people's views on whether it can be tweaked a little.

 

[ranchfarm]

Any good bond etf to invest in via ibkr? I prefer to concentrate my investments to work towards the 100k.. Sold everything on scb early Feb except bonds and moved to ibkr.. I guess in the process of doing dca downwards but was one of the few that bought on the initial discount before the plunge this week lol

I was looking at the same things myself:
Global corporate bonds: VDPA, CRPA
Global govt bonds: VAGU, AGGU
US Treasury: VDTA, Ishares has a number of them, search on Bloomberg app.

ST doesn't recommend this for retirement due to currency risk but I think it's fine for rebalancing with iwda/vwra and then we switch to mbh a few years before retirement. I have not bought any yet but I'm looking at VAGU.

 

[Okenba]

I know most here advocates and practices the DCA method.

But just thinking out loud, would it be better if one is to go full cash in situations like this? Take profit and wait it out instead.

Then start your DCA at some point in the near future.

I know people will say it's hindsight and all that but it is not hard to see the market dropping at some point with this virus thing going on, even before the actual drop.

Virus was announced in late Jan. US markets heading steadily up.
China closed and quarantined cities and regions. US markets heading steadily up.
China announced factories shut down, thus cutting supply chains. US markets heading steadily up.

Even when it reached their shores, and US has admitted to being slow to react, not enough test kits, all it took was FEDs cutting rates and the markets started to move up again.

The markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

 

[drkcynic]

It is sure painful but no point harping on it. Mid last year I thought it would be the highest but end of year it shot up.

Last week I thought that would be the lowest but it went down even more. I received notifications, looked it up. Oh dear loss $20k. I ordered my 3rd pint of Guiness.

Yes i agree it is hard to predict or even follow the small ripples in the market from time to time. Therefore DCA works.

But in major world situations like what we have now, we could maybe consider a different approach.

We knew what happened during Sars, the situation is worse now. So why is it that when we know what's coming, we still have money on the table is what I am questioning myself.

 

[Prof. Utonium]

Yes i agree it is hard to predict or even follow the small ripples in the market from time to time. Therefore DCA works.

But in major world situations like what we have now, we could maybe consider a different approach.

We knew what happened during Sars, the situation is worse now. So why is it that when we know what's coming, we still have money on the table is what I am questioning myself.

Because predicting the bottom is hard.

Could had close my position for a tidy profit. But held on to it since I do not need the money in the next 30 years.

Have another lump sum awaiting for the next month allocation.

Frankly I am in FMCG, the signs are there since last year. The virus is just the last nail. My China suppliers had updated me of the situation even before the crash, I did nothing. I do not want to worry too much and continue with my daily life as per normal.

 

[Witwit84]

have been investing following ST's DCA strategy since 2015 and lived thru STI index falling from 3500 to 2600 and then up again to 3600 through the years as well as IWDA ups and downs. In the initial 1-2 years of DCA i panicked a little when i saw STI fell to 2600. After that i just became numbed because you just can't predict the peak and the bottom. The point of DCA is to buy and then forget about it. If it's cheaper now it will just push your average price down which is even better, it's a warehouse sale!

 

[unknownplayer]

I was looking at the same things myself:
Global corporate bonds: VDPA, CRPA
Global govt bonds: VAGU, AGGU
US Treasury: VDTA, Ishares has a number of them, search on Bloomberg app.

ST doesn't recommend this for retirement due to currency risk but I think it's fine for rebalancing with iwda/vwra and then we switch to mbh a few years before retirement. I have not bought any yet but I'm looking at VAGU.

Unless you wait for April or May when hopefully we can start trading sg stocks.

My view is the situation could get worse. We haven't seen the initial round of job losses yet and already a number of service sector industries are suffering badly. Let's see how this pans out but its short of depressing at the moment.

Good opportunity to dca in but you probably will see your holdings in a red for the initial period...

 

[flowerpalms]

This is what i am doing too.

Stick to monthly dca

have been investing following ST's DCA strategy since 2015 and lived thru STI index falling from 3500 to 2600 and then up again to 3600 through the years as well as IWDA ups and downs. In the initial 1-2 years of DCA i panicked a little when i saw STI fell to 2600. After that i just became numbed because you just can't predict the peak and the bottom. The point of DCA is to buy and then forget about it. If it's cheaper now it will just push your average price down which is even better, it's a warehouse sale!

 

[weakgirl]

SCB trade commission for IWDA

I was reading using this URL below that if I buy IWDA using SCB, it is 1% commission for every trade? i.e. a $2k usd buy will incur an additional fees of $20 usd?

https://av.sc.com/sg/content/docs/sgo_efees_schedule.pdf

Previously I was under the impression that it would be 0.25% or min $10 usd.

https://www.sc.com/sg/investment/online-trading/#9299cc8327e126616316b7aa41b177da

Need some expert here to give advice please!

 

[moolala]

Dont be crazy

missed the boat already

IWDA was 53.6
today its 55.65 and going up

3.6% increase

those who unload warchest, congrats
those who missed, well next time got chance

 

[flowerpalms]

Just stick to monthly dca

missed the boat already

IWDA was 53.6
today its 55.65 and going up

3.6% increase

those who unload warchest, congrats
those who missed, well next time got chance

 

[Zink00]

Scb earns the fx spread. Dont forget when u cash out also hit with another round. Someone mentioned previously that he couldnt transfer scb holdings to ib anymore.

 

[moolala]

Scb earns the fx spread. Dont forget when u cash out also hit with another round. Someone mentioned previously that he couldnt transfer scb holdings to ib anymore.

scb sux

Dont be crazy

Just stick to monthly dca

not my money
But I rather be a crazy rich moolah

 

[tesarise]

Nobody is pointing any fingers. You are ultimately responsible for your own money.

Just trying to put forth a different view point. DCA-ing works in theory, but I'm just trying to understand people's views on whether it can be tweaked a little.

Personally I think it can be tweaked slightly based on TA.
The bounce tonight might be a good time to exit if that is what you want to do

 

[makav31i]

I was reading using this URL below that if I buy IWDA using SCB, it is 1% commission for every trade? i.e. a $2k usd buy will incur an additional fees of $20 usd?

https://av.sc.com/sg/content/docs/sgo_efees_schedule.pdf

Previously I was under the impression that it would be 0.25% or min $10 usd.

https://www.sc.com/sg/investment/online-trading/#9299cc8327e126616316b7aa41b177da

Need some expert here to give advice please!

Can show where you get the extra 1% from and under what charges?

 

[hahaman111]

Scb earns the fx spread. Dont forget when u cash out also hit with another round. Someone mentioned previously that he couldnt transfer scb holdings to ib anymore.

If really cannot transfer, just do manually. Sell in SCB, buy back in IB. Just lose the transaction fees.

 

[jacky817]

Noob question... If IB charges a monthly fee of USD 10, should we buy on the way down instead of just DCA once a month? I'm looking at my lump sum and wondering if I should 'DCA down' if that makes sense.

Sent from Samsung SM-G975F using GAGT

Yea it does.

Assuming the market will continue to go down:
1. You DCA, and your average goes lower and lower. Nice. Down also buy, up also buy. Easy.
2. You lump sum, see another 5% dip today, another 10% dip next week. One month later +10% recovery THEN another 15% dip, wtf. How will you feel? This is called playing with your feelings.

Assuming this is as low as it gets and market goes up from here:
1. You DCA. You will think, wah heng i bought ytd. Then another month +5%, you will think wah heng i bought last month.
2. You lump sum. YAY!

Emotionally, DCA is much easier to handle over the span of days, weeks and months while the markets goes a923hr982asf3(!*#&(~!@

Statistically based on past data, lump sum wins 2/3 of the time (if my facts are right, feel free to correct me). Pick your poison.

Speculatively, i think the market haven't reached its bottom HAHAHA. Fingers crossed =)


To add on to the talks about cashing out now and buying when it is lower. Congratulations, you have just transited from investing to speculating. Chapter 1 of The Intelligent Investor. All the best.

 

[flowerpalms]

Dca is better. If you lump sum, you have to time the market but who knows if the price will dip more.

Dca is the better option now like you say, down and up also buy.

Stick to ur monthly investment amount and dont go rushing into buying iwda just because of the dip. Dont speculate and maintain ur portfolio