Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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chrisloh65

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https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-crash-in-us-dollar-is-coming

"Why crash in US dollar is coming
Stephen Roach
PUBLISHED JUN 10, 2020, 5:00 AM SGT
The Straits Times

The era of the US dollar's "exorbitant privilege" as the world's primary reserve currency is coming to an end. Then French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d'Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a United States that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its overextended standard of living.

For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. Those days are over.
"
 

chrisloh65

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So USD has dropped by 8% against SGD?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-dollar-analysis/battered-u-s-dollar-hanging-by-a-thread-as-coronavirus-cases-grow-idUSKCN24N2UI

"Battered U.S. dollar 'hanging by a thread' as coronavirus cases grow
Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A steady decline in the dollar has accelerated in recent weeks, as a resurgent coronavirus outbreak in the United States and improving economic prospects abroad sour investors on the currency.

The buck is down 8% from its highs of the year against a basket of currencies =USD and stands near its lowest level since 2018. Net bets against the dollar in futures markets are approaching their highest level in more than two years.
......................

Momtchil Pojarliev, head of currencies at BNP Asset Management in New York, said the market has been overly optimistic on how Europe has handled the virus.
Still, he has reduced his U.S. dollar bets.
“I don’t want to fight the trend,” he said.
"


https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-crash-in-us-dollar-is-coming

"Why crash in US dollar is coming
Stephen Roach
PUBLISHED JUN 10, 2020, 5:00 AM SGT
The Straits Times

The era of the US dollar's "exorbitant privilege" as the world's primary reserve currency is coming to an end. Then French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d'Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a United States that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its overextended standard of living.

For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. Those days are over.
"
 

Shiny Things

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So USD has dropped by 8% against SGD?

No. The USD has dropped 8% against the US dollar index basket. And that's compared to the dollar's highs of the year, which were in the middle of a massive panic; since the start of the year, pre-corona, the USD's dropped about 3.5%.

The USD is stronger against SGD since the start of the year, by about 2.5%; and compared to its high of the year (on March 23rd, when everyone was screaming and running around like chickens with their heads cut off—remember that?), it's about 5.5% weaker, not eight percent.

Over the course of the year, the USD has strengthened against the SGD by about 8.5% (from 1.3450 to 1.46), and then weakened by about 5.5% (from 1.46 to 1.3750, where it is now), for a total of about 2.5% stronger.

If you'd fallen into a coma on December 31st and woken up this morning, you'd think "oh it's been a pretty quiet year in SGD, it's moved a couple of percent".

If a retail investor (not trader) uses limit orders and does not day trade, would HFT make any adverse effect to a buy or sell transaction?

Hmmm... it's very second-order, but I can see HFT having a negative effect, especially if you're posting large limit orders.

A large limit order, to buy or to sell, sticks out like a sore thumb in the order book. It's very easy for automated traders to front-run a big order like that (I can dive into how, if people are interested?), which means your order is less likely to get filled, even if you're just posting limit orders.

The solution to this is to slice-and-dice your order into smaller parts, either manually or with an execution algo of your own.

might be an alternative worth considering for US ETF and all ?

No, c'mon, don't be suckered in by the zero-fee brokerages.

If you're a buy-and-hold investor, you shouldn't be buying US ETFs in the first place, because you're going to get railed on dividend taxes.

If you're an active trader, you should be using Interactive Brokers, because you can control your execution instead of letting your broker send it all to the Citadel flow monster.

Zero-fee equity brokerages are for suckers.

And this is another thing:
Seriously guys. Its GST on your commission. Do you trade that big to be this concerned?

This is absolutely right. Look, I'm all for cutting commissions, but IBKR's commissions are so much lower than any other broker's that the GST literally doesn't make a difference. It's a few cents on the average trade, and you're doing that trade, what, once a month?

IBKR is the best broker out there in terms of low cost and great execution; they're rock-solid safe, they have excellent risk management; and now that they have a Singaporean office, you can use them to buy and sell Singaporean stocks as well, at the lowest rates on the street. Use them.
 
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Tool18

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https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1590&p=stocks1

Guys please read and compare yourself.

GST is irrelevant since it applies for all brokerage in SG on SGX.

1. It seems the fee is net for fixed or tiered (did IBKR absorb the GST or they are not revenue big enough to be charged yet ?), but do check and ask IBKR if u want to find out as I’ve not asked IBKR myself yet

2. Fixed or tiered 0.08% at whopping min $2.50SGD Super attractive as this means min trade is $3125 to enjoy 0.08%. Tiered u can see their volume , Beats hands down every other brokerage

3. Ability to base currencies in any denomination And ability to change between tiered or fixed scheme anytime. Not to mention their FX conversion almost to spot rate

Just some of the key benefits , the rest please read up .

Only quip I have is they can’t sell out of my CDP for me currently :(
 
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moolala

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The solution to this is to slice-and-dice your order into smaller parts, either manually or with an execution algo of your own.

If you're a buy-and-hold investor, you shouldn't be buying US ETFs in the first place, because you're going to get railed on dividend taxes.

If you're an active trader, you should be using Interactive Brokers, because you can control your execution instead of letting your broker send it all to the Citadel flow monster.

Zero-fee equity brokerages are for suckers.

And this is another thing:

IBKR is the best broker out there in terms of low cost and great execution; they're rock-solid safe, they have excellent risk management; and now that they have a Singaporean office, you can use them to buy and sell Singaporean stocks as well, at the lowest rates on the street. Use them.

I think there's an iceberg order that hide ur orders. Alternatively u can have a stop limit order that hide ur order til ur stop is triggered but this might have execution delay

whats a citadel flow monster? :s13:

if ur active trader, these commissions really add up because u would be market ordering out and taking liquidity i.e. ur commisions are alot, esp if u trade large blocks like penny stock

just curious, whats bad about TD though?
theres no commission, they gonna probably try and claw back through other fees, still dont understand this citadel monster

i heard someone mention IBKR took a loss when oil prices went negative. That's why I am always worried about SPIC protection, even though I read somewhere that ST said its unnecessary, and never have more than what is protected with the broker
 
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Visa4550

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Hi Shinythings, do know how to create an account on US inland revenue to claim back divided witholding taxes on index (both US and ireland domciled etfs) looking into it to save the 30% and 15%. The savings will defenitely be worth the trouble (significant amount)

Sent from Samsung SM-N960F using GAGT
 

newjersey

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spot-on.
commission-free brokers, but backed by what?
the safest brokers are IB and TD.
IB charges a petty commission, that I no longer factor in as my costs.
TD has free commission but are limited to US-only stocks.

it's silly not to pick IB, esp when they have an office in SG.
 

moolala

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spot-on.
commission-free brokers, but backed by what?
the safest brokers are IB and TD.
IB charges a petty commission, that I no longer factor in as my costs.
TD has free commission but are limited to US-only stocks.

it's silly not to pick IB, esp when they have an office in SG.

what do u mean backed by?

IB commissions can add up if ur trading a large volume of stocks
yup, td is fine for those who trade US, thats why i wonder why IB when TD is free...there will probably be higher fees somewhere

tbh, IB charts and indicators really sux to the max...dont know if anyone here pay for das and ib backend but I didnt want to relearn another platform so i stuck to IB and then use other ways to do charting

TD also have office I think, not sure if its closed down
 

shallow

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Hi Shinythings, do know how to create an account on US inland revenue to claim back divided witholding taxes on index (both US and ireland domciled etfs) looking into it to save the 30% and 15%. The savings will defenitely be worth the trouble (significant amount)

Sent from Samsung SM-N960F using GAGT
Those taxes are tax on US dividend on non us residents aka alien. In other words, as long as you're a non us citizen or resident, you're subjected to this tax if you get dividend from a us company.

assuming you're Singaporean living in resident, claim back what??

Sent from Samsung SM-N950F using GAGT
 
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Visa4550

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Those taxes are tax on US dividend on non us residents aka alien. In other words, as long as you're a non us citizen or resident, you're subjected to this tax if you get dividend from a us company.

assuming you're Singaporean living in resident, claim back what??

Sent from Samsung SM-N950F using GAGT
Because your not a us tax resident you can claim back the witholding taxes on dividends, stashaway and autowealth does it for you and they hire a tax company to do so for their clients

Sent from Samsung SM-N960F using GAGT
 

swan02

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Prolly he implies free commission brokers thread on a fine line due to lower profit margins thus don’t have the means to back up their subsidiaries in the event of default.

Anyways many com free platform biz model make their money on your idle cash. A difficult competitive industry indeed.

what do u mean backed by?

/QUOTE]
 

newjersey

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IB is backed by well fargos, if i am not wrong.
TD has it's own affiliate bank.

there's some free charting websites, which u probably know better than me.

great thing about IB USA was insurance by SEC.
 

JadenQ

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Welcome to America! Pro tip: holiday in Utah in the summer, it’s amazing.

In your case, you’re right: you absolutely do NOT want to own IWDA and VWRA. The good news is, you can bung it all into one fund! Sign up for a Vanguard account when you get over here, and put all the money into the appropriate Vanguard Target Retirement fund for your age. You can rethink your asset placement if and when you decide to leave the States, but while you’re over here, Vanguard it.

Seriously, if Vanguard’s target-retirement funds existed in Singapore, this thread wouldn’t need to exist. They really are that good.

Thanks for the advice. Could I just clarify, would just holding IWDA/VWRA while being a tax resident in the US have tax implications? Even without selling them in the US? Also, would having the IWDA/VWRA in an IBKR SG entity as opposed to an IBKR LLC entity change the tax implications?

If I currently have a lump sum in SG now, what would you suggest I invest into since it would be inadvisable to put them into IWDA/VWRA now?
 

celtosaxon

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Thanks for the advice. Could I just clarify, would just holding IWDA/VWRA while being a tax resident in the US have tax implications?

Yes.

Even without selling them in the US?

Yes.

Also, would having the IWDA/VWRA in an IBKR SG entity as opposed to an IBKR LLC entity change the tax implications?

No.

If I currently have a lump sum in SG now, what would you suggest I invest into since it would be inadvisable to put them into IWDA/VWRA now?

VT
 

311290

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Hi ST,

Current contributing 5% (3500 THB) to provident fund however i'm unsure of the fund details which the bank/company doesn't provide.

As i wish to reduce more taxable income, would you suggest to increase to 15% (max) or contribute to ssf (Hold 10years)

For provident fund if i were to leave the company, i can choose withdraw (pay tax) or pay 500thb/year to keep in the funds.

Please advise which is the ssf funds i should get as well.

Thank you

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hJMZUrzbCXKRNPuUpp_Kc2AmoyWxpLeuxBV-Y7bcAPA/edit?usp=sharing
 

chrisloh65

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According to below expert economist, he forecast that USD will have 35% decline from Jun 2020 rate. I would bet my money with his bearish expert forecast than your forever "bulls" about USD and US stocks (anyway we know very well that propagating such view will benefits you). :s13:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-14/dollar-crash-how-will-it-unfold

"How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold
The argument that there is no alternative to the U.S. currency makes little sense.

By Stephen Roach
June 15, 2020

My forecast that a 35% decline in the value of dollar could well be in the offing is couched in terms of the comparison between the U.S. and the currencies of a broad basket of America’s trading partners.

"



No. The USD has dropped 8% against the US dollar index basket. And that's compared to the dollar's highs of the year, which were in the middle of a massive panic; since the start of the year, pre-corona, the USD's dropped about 3.5%.

The USD is stronger against SGD since the start of the year, by about 2.5%; and compared to its high of the year (on March 23rd, when everyone was screaming and running around like chickens with their heads cut off—remember that?), it's about 5.5% weaker, not eight percent.

Over the course of the year, the USD has strengthened against the SGD by about 8.5% (from 1.3450 to 1.46), and then weakened by about 5.5% (from 1.46 to 1.3750, where it is now), for a total of about 2.5% stronger.

If you'd fallen into a coma on December 31st and woken up this morning, you'd think "oh it's been a pretty quiet year in SGD, it's moved a couple of percent".
 

confusedsuitguy

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I'm a little bit confused and could use some advice. I was under the impression that with my chosen strategy, I wouldn't be paying more than the fixed 10 USD monthly fee to IBKR. I'm buying two counters every month. Although admittedly each are sold in a different currency, I presumed that I'd be paying roughly 2.5 USD per action anyway (two conversions to target currencies + buying two counters) = roughly 10 USD.

However, I recently tried to purchase a rather large amount of one ETF (roughly 12,000 EUR) through the workstation and the estimated commission was 15 EUR! I experimented by switching from fixed to tiered commissions, and it almost halved to 8.4 EUR, but this is still almost 10 USD in and of itself. Am I doing something wrong?

Would appreciate any help, thanks!
 
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crystalnox

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I'm a little bit confused and could use some advice. I was under the impression that with my chosen strategy, I wouldn't be paying more than the fixed 10 USD monthly fee to IBKR. I'm buying two counters every month. Although admittedly each are sold in a different currency, I presumed that I'd be paying roughly 2.5 USD per action anyway (two conversions to target currencies + buying two counters) = roughly 10 USD.

However, I recently tried to purchase a rather large amount of one ETF (roughly 12,000 EUR) through the workstation and the estimated commission was 15 EUR! I experimented by switching from fixed to tiered commissions, and it almost halved to 8.4 EUR, but this is still almost 10 USD in and of itself. Am I doing something wrong?

Would appreciate any help, thanks!
Looks about right to me, Tiered 0.05% for 12,000 EUR is 6 EUR + misc. exchange and clearing fees.
Most of us here aren't buying >$3k worth of stocks at one time so we only consider the min. fee in our discussions.
 
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