Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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chrisloh65

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Just wondering:

- Is NAV of IWDA deviating much more from current bid-ask price? (NAV should be the average price of all the assets held by IWDA, which BlackRock can readily calculate in a split second since IWDA only hold liquid traded assets).

- Is current bid-ask price spread getting bigger because market maker not willing to buy/sell at tight bid-ask price?


I am not expert, correct me if I've misunderstood.

Based on the links below, the price of IWDA is a function of supply and demand as traded on all secondary markets. However the traded price should have some link to the NAV (net asset value) of IWDA. There is attempt to price the NAV real time (read the section on iNAV), but with some limits due to time zone and trading hour differences (etc...), NAV might not capture the underlying stock price....


www ishares com/uk/individual/en/literature/prospectus/ishare-iii-plc-en-emea-prospectus.pdf

Read section on Publication of Net Asset Value and Net Asset Value per Share and Indicative Net Asset Value

www ishares com/uk/individual/en/literature/fact-sheet/swda-ishares-core-msci-world-ucits-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-gb.pdf

Read Important Information

This is where you can see the indicative NAV
www boerse-frankfurt de/en/etf/ishares-core-msci-world-ucits-etf
 

MichealScott

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If an ETF pays out dividends and drops to 2017 levels, you can still say you received dividends out of it, so the guy who bought in 2017 is still slightly better off than buying now because of dividends.

If an ETF does not distribute dividends, the returns are entirely reflected in the price. If price goes down to 2017 levels, there is no difference between buying at 2017 and buying now. You effectively lose money as you could have just put your 2017 money in the bank and withdraw it now to buy in.
I understand this. So what happened to the dividends that was reinvested for us for IWDA ?

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swan02

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Long time ago. I went in when Berkshire started buying. Never regretted it. From memory it was approx 35 percent down from peak.
I wonder if Berkshire is jumping in right now. I think they had around 122B in cash laying around. Buffet said there wasn't any real value out there to spend it on. There has to be some value now or coming up soon.
 

LoUsyGamER

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To the gurus out there,

Anyone had performed cointegation test for iwda with the USA index? If yes, possible to share which index has the highest statistically significant connection with iwda. Best if done via eg test with log value.

Wanted to take this opportunity to identify hedging strategies for iwda.

Thank you very much.
 

coralsg

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Just wondering:

- Is NAV of IWDA deviating much more from current bid-ask price? (NAV should be the average price of all the assets held by IWDA, which BlackRock can readily calculate in a split second since IWDA only hold liquid traded assets).

- Is current bid-ask price spread getting bigger because market maker not willing to buy/sell at tight bid-ask price?
I am new to this, and I haven't studied the bid-ask spread. However, for completeness I have updated my previous remarks for currency valuation differences (iNav values in EUR, while LSE priced in USD)

This is where you can see the indicative NAV (please note this is valued in EUR)
www boerse-frankfurt de/en/etf/ishares-core-msci-world-ucits-etf

This is where you can see the bid-ask on LSE (please note this is priced in USD)
www londonstockexchange com/exchange/prices-and-markets/ETFs/company-summary/IE00B4L5Y983IEUSDEUET.html?lang=en
 

koicafex

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vwra closed at 65...cos of travel ban :s13:
hopefully it gets better
this virus rly out of hand...my friends in germany need do online shopping to secure food :s13:
 

TL4GG18

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IWDA doesn't pay out dividend, so your IWDA unit price should increase with dividends received by this ETF.

And yes, you are back to square 1 after 4 years (with all dividends gone into smoke)! :o

It is scary to see that S&P and DJIA had gone down by 30% within a span of 4 weeks isn't it? Not surprising to me because every market cycles will be different anyway.

I am not feeling scared yet. Have been through the 2007 times.. thought that gave me some good mental training 🤣
 

TL4GG18

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So these are the quick and dirty monthly average closing prices if you have DCA faithfully since the stated dates. Current price of IWDA is $47.67, looks to fall again today, so in short, if you have not DCA and thought that you missed the boat, the good news is that if prices dipped below $45.15, you would have been in the same position that those who have been DCA since June 2012.

DCA Since
Jun-12 $45.15
Jan-13 $46.40
Jan-14 $47.92
Jan-15 $49.55
Jan-16 $51.33
Jan-17 $54.24
Jan-18 $56.29
Jan-19 $57.66
Jan-20 $57.80

Data from Yahoo finance seems corrupted before Jun-12, so that was the furthest I could go.

That is so true. Lol so I have lost all my " dividends plus gains"
Oh well 😆
 

ashrmsh

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My initial DCA investment plan was structured to put in SGD100 into MBH and SGD100 into G3B monthly, and quarterly investments of USD4000 into VWRA (accumulated to save on the min. $10 fee). I invested this quarter's USD4000 last week, but I'm now looking to mobilize from a warchest to throw into VWRA today, since it's hit a new low of USD65.57. I'm not looking to time the market, just looking to 'buy stocks low and sell high' over a long term horizon. Ik doing this will probably knock my portfolio percentages out of order, but that can be corrected through rebalancing layer this year.

With all that in mind, I just want to clarify: is there anything inherently wrong with my strategy of looking to mobilise more of my warchest into VWRA today when it's cheaper? Thanks all!
 

flowerpalms

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You can unload warchest but if you choose to do that, you should also know that price can always go lower.

My initial DCA investment plan was structured to put in SGD100 into MBH and SGD100 into G3B monthly, and quarterly investments of USD4000 into VWRA (accumulated to save on the min. $10 fee). I invested this quarter's USD4000 last week, but I'm now looking to mobilize from a warchest to throw into VWRA today, since it's hit a new low of USD65.57. I'm not looking to time the market, just looking to 'buy stocks low and sell high' over a long term horizon. Ik doing this will probably knock my portfolio percentages out of order, but that can be corrected through rebalancing layer this year.

With all that in mind, I just want to clarify: is there anything inherently wrong with my strategy of looking to mobilise more of my warchest into VWRA today when it's cheaper? Thanks all!
 

unknownplayer

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I got out early Feb when I had a bad feeling that this will blow out extremely badly. And to be honest the markets didn't price in the oil stuff hence the bigger crash. Maybe things will stabilise after everyone realises the virus doesn't really kill but places huge amount of stress on the healthcare system.. Thta should be a couple of months away as most of the population get infected but don't die.

For me I'm just re-entering the market in stages (eg. 10%, 20% discount ++ vs peak or when I sold.. Then look to pump in more money.

Personally I think it could crash up to 40%? That's when I will probably exhaust most of my warchest.

A good read will be Howard Marks article - nobody knows (go Google.. I can't link) . As long as you're happy with your discount By all means go for the purchase.

Whether stocks are over valued is another thing. We are more than ten years into a cycle so a correction is about time anyway.
 

MichealScott

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That is so true. Lol so I have lost all my " dividends plus gains"
Oh well �
Times like this make me wonder whether it is really worth it to do DCAing into Non-dividend paying stocks not..

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havetheveryfun

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Times like this make me wonder whether it is really worth it to do DCAing into Non-dividend paying stocks not..

Sent from Stamford Bridge using GAGT

the point of DCA is to get rid of your emotions and not look at the market at all.

also, the prices may not recover that fast. lets say if the prices remain depressed for 6months to a year or month, then you would be DCA-ing into the lower prices, and averaging down your total cost.

so yes, it is still worth it for ppl who just want to focus on their jobs and not care about the market. but if you are more experienced and confident, then you could maybe continue DCA-ing a % of your portfolio, but also pick up them cheaper in times like this.
 

kram62

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That is so true. Lol so I have lost all my " dividends plus gains"
Oh well �
No. You only lose them if you sell now. Otherwise you still own the underlying stocks, their price will increase again in the future.

Rather think about the proper time scale (decades). In 20 years, hopefully (surely?) the world will have overcome the current market crash.

If you needed the money "soon" (less than 7 years) then you should not have put it heavily in stocks already.
 

shallow

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This is to those saying that accumulating ETG dividend are lost when crash happens and I'll try to explain why it's not true. As an accumulating ETF, when dividend are paid, it is automatically reinvested into the ETF through new assets acquisition like buying more of the stocks in the ETF basket stock. If you keep track of the growth (asset appreciation + dividend yield), you will notice that the appreciation rate of accumulating ETF is much higher compared to the appreciation rate of distributing ETF. I.e. compare the growth rate of another distributing ETF that tracks the same index as IWDA, the growth of distributing is definitely lower than IWDA. Compare it with SWDA, distributing equivalent(but its traded in GBP)

That is because accumulating asset automatically reinvest your dividend, you own more and more stock over time.
For distributing ETF to have the same effect, you will have to redirect your dividend payout into more holdings of the same ETF to have the same effect as accumulating ETF.

So, no your dividend are not gone per say, your total equity just experience a -27% just like any other other equities.


Tldr: you accumulating ETF assets appreciate faster compared to distributing ETF but when financial crisis comes, both class will still experience the same downturn.

Acc/dis
100/100
Acc etf experience 30% price appreciation due to acc effect.
Dis only experience 10% over the same period of time.

So it becomes
Acc/dis
130/110

Financial crisis comes and both experience a 27% plunge.
Acc/dis
94.5/80.3

I'm not a good explainer and I'm typing all these on phone so pardon the quality of post. But i hope you get a clearer picture of what's going.

Take a look at this real example of IWDA and URTH. They are tracking the exact thing thing, the only difference is IWDA being a accumulating ETF and URTH distributing.


IWDA 5yr net return on price appreciation is +17% while URTH 5yr net return on appreciation is mere +0.88%.
 
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fliggy

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Hi ST,

What's the most cost-effective way to convert USD into SGD? Sorry for the noob question but I'm so confused with the different rates offered. Plus, is there any insurance for USD deposited in SG banks?

Thanks as always!
 

TL4GG18

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No. You only lose them if you sell now. Otherwise you still own the underlying stocks, their price will increase again in the future.

Rather think about the proper time scale (decades). In 20 years, hopefully (surely?) the world will have overcome the current market crash.

If you needed the money "soon" (less than 7 years) then you should not have put it heavily in stocks already.

Very glad to hear this 👍
 
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