Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[TL4GG18]

Essentially you are suggesting we should be more aggressive now — and I certainly agree, double down if you can!

But there are some people who for the past 5 years kept thinking the market is too high, hesitated or held back, and have been on the sidelines saving up a war chest, waiting for the next crisis. Such a strategy almost always results in lower returns in the long-term compared to a disciplined investor who ignores whether the market is high or low and faithfully keeps investing through ups and downs.

The last sentence I am curious! Why is it so? Sorry for the question

 

[dullthings]

This fall is getting quite dramatic, the limit orders I’ve arbitrarily set at regular intervals till $48 IWDA to invest a certain lump sum have all been cleared.

I’m still new to these, so to be conservative, I originally didn’t plan to consider my reserve cash, CPF, SSB as part of my portfolio. But to count SSB in, I’d be at such ratios as of today:

SSB: 43%
MBH: 16% (29% excluding SSB)
STI: 9% (16% excluding SSB)
IWDA: 31% (55% excluding SSB)

Question: Should I include SSB in my bond portfolio now and rebalance over the next few months? Or anyone in a similar situation? Any advice? Thanks!

 

[TL4GG18]

What are you on about? You need me to do your homework for you?

Prices now are at 2017 levels, so anybody lump summing today as compared to beginning their DCA at 2017 would have won out.

Why precisely 4 years over a 30+ year accumulation phase? Because of the good old adage that a crash comes every 10 years. So you would have been waiting out at 2016/2017 in anticipation of a crash in 2018/2019. This crash came a little late, but you will still be profitable if you had the patience to time the market.

That's what market timing is about. You choose a specific period you think will be better if you have waited...

While you are waiting and saving up war chest...how do you beat the inflation? That is something I thought about. Like I started DCA for iwda in 2017. So now my gains are wiped out..I am back to square 1? Feels like it. But I have dividends over the years? confused now actually

 

[lingalong]

I just tried converting $200 SGD to USD via the Phone App

It says order was executed at 1.4075, with 140 units bought under trade history. But when I go back to my portfolio, it shows me having 137USD + 2 SGD. If I reverse calculate, this only results in 194.82 SGD. Am I missing something?

 

[swan02]

My last sentence was not conveyed clearly. It’s an expression don’t even get me started on.... when I’m not even done with mbh.

Everyone knows Sg REITs , gold, foreign and long term bonds are discouraged here in this forum. Cardinal son. if u have read my messages long while back. I held all these asset
Classes. They are good.

I hold a notion that one should hold gold only when equities are expensive. but gold is an unreliable hedge for fluctuating emotions n price crashes. I recall recently gold crashed big time in one of the scary days and can’t figure out why except news saysjng people are selling their physical jewellery to raise some cash.

it is also unreliable with unexpected short term high inflation where TIPs will do a better job. The good thing is it is lowly correlated to bonds and equity and that’s what we want in diversification and rebalancing.

I also perceive it more so as a safe haven currency rather than a commodity. I see gold performing when interest rates are cut and inflation rising quick but quick to screw up once interest rates rises quickly.

I think there r ample evidence to suggest gold moves can’t be explained early except it goes up and down simply people are buying or selling. Contrast to bonds where it is more predictable.

Today’s bonds performance is a shocker and surprised me and my portfolio got hit badly with my huge bond allocation. Perhaps central banks are selling their treasuries to raise cash. What an insane world !

I think there are good researched articles by vanguard explaining all these including stagflation with conclusions it is unreliable . I could be wrong with which as I’ve read a crap load. It’s all on google. Avoid crappy articles and look into good ones.

I will still promote gold but only when shillers cape above 25 ie expensive. but once below 20, sell and buy up stocks or physical property.

isn't gold a good hedge for stagflation?

 

[tesarise]

While you are waiting and saving up war chest...how do you beat the inflation? That is something I thought about. Like I started DCA for iwda in 2017. So now my gains are wiped out..I am back to square 1? Feels like it. But I have dividends over the years? confused now actually

IWDA no dividends, the price you see is the gains/losses you get. so yes you back to square 1

 

[TL4GG18]

IWDA no dividends, the price you see is the gains/losses you get. so yes you back to square 1

I see! Okie continue my DCA

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

This thread is getting as toxic as EDMW, which is quite a feat.


Oh, and I am reminded that a broken clock right twice a day.

 

[lawd2005]

Hi Folks,

I posted a Q a couple of weeks ago: I was 75% equities (mostly IWDA), 15% Bonds (all MBH) and 10% cash. I got the 10% cash in to equities 2 weeks ago when market was falling. And my Q then was whether to liquidate the 15% MBH to buy IWDA.

The advice on the forum was not to do - but I guess I am not disciplined enough yet. I liquitdated the MBH this week and bought IWDA, so am now 100% equities.

The thing I did to make me feel comfortable was to take some of the MBH cash and increase Rainy Day Fund by 20%. I am sure this is probably wrong.

The one thing it has done is decrease my likelihood to need to withdraw from the investment pot.

Just wanted to share and even if people disagree with the 100% equity shift as too risky - it re-enforces the need for security in Rainy Day Fund to enable dispassionate investment decisions.

@Shiny and @BBCW - thanks for the advice and sorry for not following to the letter on this occasion. But my decisions are far more considered because of it.

 

[swan02]

Yes the order filled! Just waiting for your congratulations now!

Market timing works! I'm living proof!

Hope those who chose to DCA can maintain their income to continue their DCA. Retailers and tourism sector might be hard hit

dca and timing works better. Your timing might be still off but your dca always doesnt.

For eg I don’t even think today’s price is good. it can even go way lower or it never. I won’t regret either way cuz I dca. I fear buyer or seller remorse more so than crashes. Always remain invested with portfolio equity range between 20-50 percent while u dca in an expensive market.

 

[tesarise]

Hi Folks,

I posted a Q a couple of weeks ago: I was 75% equities (mostly IWDA), 15% Bonds (all MBH) and 10% cash. I got the 10% cash in to equities 2 weeks ago when market was falling. And my Q then was whether to liquidate the 15% MBH to buy IWDA.

The advice on the forum was not to do - but I guess I am not disciplined enough yet. I liquitdated the MBH this week and bought IWDA, so am now 100% equities.

The thing I did to make me feel comfortable was to take some of the MBH cash and increase Rainy Day Fund by 20%. I am sure this is probably wrong.

The one thing it has done is decrease my likelihood to need to withdraw from the investment pot.

Just wanted to share and even if people disagree with the 100% equity shift as too risky - it re-enforces the need for security in Rainy Day Fund to enable dispassionate investment decisions.

@Shiny and @BBCW - thanks for the advice and sorry for not following to the letter on this occasion. But my decisions are far more considered because of it.

sorry but this is not 100% equity asset allocation. It's called 80% equities 20% cash

 

[lawd2005]

How?

I increased my rainy day fund by 20%, not to 20%

 

[KeytoFreedom]

Shiny and Experts, is the NAV and hence the share price of IWDA real time reflective of the market value of its components...I ask because of the great volatility of prices ...and IWDA is traded in LSE but many of its components are in a different time zone eg NYSE ...

 

[tesarise]

How?

I increased my rainy day fund by 20%, not to 20%

then calculate yourself what is the cash % of your portfolio

 

[chrisloh65]

IWDA doesn't pay out dividend, so your IWDA unit price should increase with dividends received by this ETF.

And yes, you are back to square 1 after 4 years (with all dividends gone into smoke)!

It is scary to see that S&P and DJIA had gone down by 30% within a span of 4 weeks isn't it? Not surprising to me because every market cycles will be different anyway.

While you are waiting and saving up war chest...how do you beat the inflation? That is something I thought about. Like I started DCA for iwda in 2017. So now my gains are wiped out..I am back to square 1? Feels like it. But I have dividends over the years? confused now actually

 

[Purplestars]

dca and timing works better. Your timing might be still off but your dca always doesnt.

For eg I don’t even think today’s price is good. it can even go way lower or it never. I won’t regret either way cuz I dca. I fear buyer or seller remorse more so than crashes. Always remain invested with portfolio equity range between 20-50 percent while u dca in an expensive market.

What happens if you work in retail, tourism, aviation or any strongly affected industry?

Facing job loss and decreased income?

You won't be able to continue your DCA strategy at the time where the prices are the cheapest. You are condemning yourself to buying big on the good times and buying small (if any) during bad times such as now.

One good way to counter this is have a warchest of maybe 10-20%. That isn't recommended anyway and is seen as timing the market.

Moral of the story, timing the market isn't always bad, it sometimes work out big time.

 

[decibel.]

Let's say USD go up to 1.8 or 2.4 and keeps on increasing. Will it still be worthwhile to invest in USD denominated tickers when the rate falls back to say 1.3 in future? You might get in at lower price but suffer from FX ?

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

From another US based forum, US based bond etfs also are trading weird, these are the exact words:

Learning a big lesson today.

Bonds ETFs are not the same as UST bonds past couple of days.

Both BND and BLV are down while UST rates have stayed around the same.

Looking at their websites seems like these things are trading at a discount to NAV.

Really bad timing since I wanted to sell more of these to increase my exposure to stocks

Maybe everyone is selling bonds to buy stocks hence these ETFs are getting dumped.

Keep in mind, stocks are tanking higher since too much supply due to forced liquidation of all the leveraged players (PUT sellers must be getting decimated since they used to take 2-3 times leverage to increase the returns).

 

[Purplestars]

IWDA doesn't pay out dividend, so your IWDA unit price should increase with dividends received by this ETF.

And yes, you are back to square 1 after 4 years (with all dividends gone into smoke)!

It is scary to see that S&P and DJIA had gone down by 30% within a span of 4 weeks isn't it? Not surprising to me because every market cycles will be different anyway.

Much worse than square 1 since he DCAed the way up with higher prices while you are now buying at 2017 prices.

 

[Okenba]

then calculate yourself what is the cash % of your portfolio

Not everyone counts their emergency cash as part of their portfolio. So long as they know what they are doing