Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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culepico

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Got it. It’s interesting enough to warrant another look when time permits.

Of course, one might not need to care about which case is better since the difference is not huge. Especially if one can DCA religiously with a peace of mind rather than to keep track whether the market has risen or fallen (and have a heart attack :p). Either way, both wins as they generate substantial returns over the decades. Cheers :)
 
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d9_lives

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Of course, one might not need to care about which case is better since the difference is not huge. Especially if one can DCA religiously with a peace of mind rather than to keep track whether the market has risen or fallen (and have a heart attack :p). Either way, both wins as they generate substantial returns over the decades. Cheers :)

So... Can I DCA now? 😂
 

unknownplayer

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So much toxicity in this thread lol. There's no right or wrong answer imo.

Maybe in the instance of such black Swan type events you can't fault people for selling down their positions.. To be honest you could have seen this coming a month ago.

I like to think I'm a more long term bogle kind of investor but the whole corona thing in early Jan irked me out so I got out completely. You could already see supply chain issues popping up, loss of jobs would be the second factor thing once this drags on.. Better to be safe than sorry and just dca downwards as the price drops. Plus we're more than ten years into the cycle there's bound to be a correction of sorts.

To the rest who didn't sell its a mind **** altogether - what if it rebounds after I sell etc so the best thing to do is just to not sell unless you absolutely need the liquidity.

Nobody has a crystal ball here so we can't exactly sell everything each time there's some sort of crisis correct? So much has happened over the last two years that would have caused the downturn etc so nobody knows how the market would perform.
 

streetfighter

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Having the luck to spot it is 1 thing, being willing to act or not is another.

Seems like tonight another day of bloodbath in US market again?
I will wait patiently for the other shoe to drop before buying again. Need to avoid catching falling knife!

So much toxicity in this thread lol. There's no right or wrong answer imo.

Maybe in the instance of such black Swan type events you can't fault people for selling down their positions.. To be honest you could have seen this coming a month ago.

I like to think I'm a more long term bogle kind of investor but the whole corona thing in early Jan irked me out so I got out completely. You could already see supply chain issues popping up, loss of jobs would be the second factor thing once this drags on.. Better to be safe than sorry and just dca downwards as the price drops. Plus we're more than ten years into the cycle there's bound to be a correction of sorts.

To the rest who didn't sell its a mind **** altogether - what if it rebounds after I sell etc so the best thing to do is just to not sell unless you absolutely need the liquidity.

Nobody has a crystal ball here so we can't exactly sell everything each time there's some sort of crisis correct? So much has happened over the last two years that would have caused the downturn etc so nobody knows how the market would perform.
 

gerdhold

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I would advise extreme caution buying into this market dca or otherwise. Things are not 'on sale', they are cheap for a reason. There's severe funding stress in USD, vol is not retreating, and liquidity is a mirage. If you think things look bad right now it's about to get worse.
 

flowerpalms

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Those who unload warchest to iwda at $50, what do you have to say now? Lol .

Perfect example low can always go lower
 

d5dude

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I would advise extreme caution buying into this market dca or otherwise. Things are not 'on sale', they are cheap for a reason. There's severe funding stress in USD, vol is not retreating, and liquidity is a mirage. If you think things look bad right now it's about to get worse.

ASX200 drop back to 2009 levels and Aussie dollar is so low now, not good bargains?
 

unknownplayer

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Those who unload warchest to iwda at $50, what do you have to say now? Lol .

Perfect example low can always go lower
I'm with you on this **** turning worse but there's always two sides to the coin. it can go higher too but in this instance nobody really knows.
 

celtosaxon

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I would advise extreme caution buying into this market dca or otherwise. Things are not 'on sale', they are cheap for a reason. There's severe funding stress in USD, vol is not retreating, and liquidity is a mirage. If you think things look bad right now it's about to get worse.

The best time to invest is when all hope is lost...
 

cassowary18

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Let's take some attention away from the dismal market and think about another important aspect of your portfolio: emergency savings. Hope you all have enough to weather any storm.

I just discovered the Singlife account. Although technically a universal life policy, it acts and behaves like a bank account i.e. you can deposit and withdraw at any time without penalty. 2.5% interest p.a. for up to $10K, and 1% interest p.a. for amounts from $10K to $100K. That's not a bad return. Can consider parking your emergency savings there.
 

kram62

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Did anyone debating over DCA versus other strategies bother to have a look at the blog posts I linked earlier? They are quite short and easy to read, and backed with data over long periods of time (usually the S&P500 because that's where most data is available).

They compare situations like what if imaginary people would have crystal ball and perfectly invested at the dips, or what if you only invest such that you never see a drawdown (keeping a cash warchest and magically investing it every time where the index price will never go lower than that price after that time), ...

If people with perfect crystal balls only slightly outperform DCA, or if being just slightly wrong with the timing (having a less than perfect crystal ball) leads to worse performance than DCA, then maybe DCA is not so evil after all.

A lot of people here react and argument with hindsight of the current crash happening. NO ONE knew exactly that we would experience such a rapid and violent market meltdown one month ago (everyone expected some market fall for sure, but no one knew it would go like this). And currently no one knows exactly when, where and how this will end.

Those who have cashed out fully before the crash were just lucky. They correctly predicted some market fall (but many expected that already given the length of the bull run), but at the time they cashed out, they did not know the amplitude and rapidity of the crash. Would the market fall be limited because the virus didn't turn into potentially the worst pandemic of the last 100 years, these people would have been wrong.

With hindsight, it's easy to brag about having cashed out before the crash. But what that is is simply survivorship bias. They got lucky, good for them (no sarcasm here, I mean it sincerely, good job with your timing, I'm a bit jealous yes I admit). Now it remains to be seen whether they will be lucky about re-entering the market. Probably if they do enter not too late in the recovery phase they will be well compensated for their luck. Good for them. (again, no sarcasm here)

For the other ones who were not lucky to cash out at the perfect time, now it is too late for that. No need to realize losses and sell low. No need to feel despaired because others were more lucky. Just need to clearly see what are the best next steps to survive the long term game.

.

Also, saying that there's no dividends with IWDA is a bit misleading. The dividends of the companies don't magically disappear, they are there, just automatically reinvested instead of landing in your cash account. You don't "lose" any dividends by using an accumulating fund.
 

d9_lives

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A lot of people here react and argument with hindsight of the current crash happening. NO ONE knew exactly that we would experience such a rapid and violent market meltdown one month ago (everyone expected some market fall for sure, but no one knew it would go like this). And currently no one knows exactly when, where and how this will end.

Those who have cashed out fully before the crash were just lucky. They correctly predicted some market fall (but many expected that already given the length of the bull run), but at the time they cashed out, they did not know the amplitude and rapidity of the crash. Would the market fall be limited because the virus didn't turn into potentially the worst pandemic of the last 100 years, these people would have been wrong.

With hindsight, it's easy to brag about having cashed out before the crash. But what that is is simply survivorship bias. They got lucky, good for them (no sarcasm here, I mean it sincerely, good job with your timing, I'm a bit jealous yes I admit). Now it remains to be seen whether they will be lucky about re-entering the market. Probably if they do enter not too late in the recovery phase they will be well compensated for their luck. Good for them. (again, no sarcasm here)

Hey you...I like you.
 

revhappy

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Let's take some attention away from the dismal market and think about another important aspect of your portfolio: emergency savings. Hope you all have enough to weather any storm.

I just discovered the Singlife account. Although technically a universal life policy, it acts and behaves like a bank account i.e. you can deposit and withdraw at any time without penalty. 2.5% interest p.a. for up to $10K, and 1% interest p.a. for amounts from $10K to $100K. That's not a bad return. Can consider parking your emergency savings there.

Isn't it is more simpler to have DBS multiplier account? We need to have a salary account anyways. You get 1.8% for upto 25k. If you want to save more than that then there are others like SCB esaver and HSBC ega account for high interest.
 

investsg

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Hi Shiny, Thanks for your contribution and advises. I have read your book and have been following the forum for quite few months.. I am an Indian, residing in SG for few years. Not sure where I would be settling down.
Any advise on the asset allocation?
Should I still stick to 40:40:20 proportion of IWDA:ES3:MBH based on your 110-age factor?
Any recommendations on exposure to Indian market on low cost ETFs or other suggestions?
With the recent correction in the markets and new to investing for long term, it appears to be a good time to enter (at least slowly if not lump sum). I have 50k SGD to invest. Any advise on how to spread out the investment in terms of timing?
 

auvignon

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Of course, one might not need to care about which case is better since the difference is not huge. Especially if one can DCA religiously with a peace of mind rather than to keep track whether the market has risen or fallen (and have a heart attack :p). Either way, both wins as they generate substantial returns over the decades. Cheers :)

I generally agree (and whichever is easier get bonus points, of course).

But just to wrap things up on my end, I did a run through S&P 500 from 1 January 2000 to 1 December 2019 (making sure to hit the 2008 crash). On the same assumptions as previously, the average figure for a DCA person through this period would be ~1,571.77 whereas culepico's methodology results in ~1,577.79. That means ~105.55% returns for the former and ~104.77% for the latter. Difference is truly slight (but the DCA results, I think, lends support against the alleged efficacy of culepico's methodology).
 
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cassowary18

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Isn't it is more simpler to have DBS multiplier account? We need to have a salary account anyways. You get 1.8% for upto 25k. If you want to save more than that then there are others like SCB esaver and HSBC ega account for high interest.

I actually have a DBS account and I'm earning 2.2% interest p.a. on it. Just funneled out $10K to put into the Singlife account.

DBS Multiplier is good because there's no min credit card spend (even if you spend just 1 cent, it ticks the box for the bonus category) and your POSB Invest-Saver counts for another bonus category. Though for the latter there's an annoying 12 months limit on your investment counting for bonus interest.

Of course, 2.5% is greater than 2.2%.
 

ForceMajeure

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For the other ones who were not lucky to cash out at the perfect time, now it is too late for that. No need to realize losses and sell low. No need to feel despaired because others were more lucky. Just need to clearly see what are the best next steps to survive the long term game.

This is a false dichotomy.

The next best step should not preclude cashing out now if one expects an even deeper loss by holding.
 

fuddlebox

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How’s everyone doing?

Hi everyone

Really learnt a lot from this forum, thanks to all who contributed and hope everyone is doing well with stuff the way it is now.

Just wanted to offer some words of encouragement to those sifting thru a ton of advice, some seemingly conflicting. Hang in there, it gets better! And you will eventually come to your own conclusions as you formulate your own strategies - whatever they might be.

In the immortal words of Baz Luhrmann : “sometimes you’re ahead, sometimes you’re behind. The race is long, and in the end it’s only with yourself...your choices are half chances, so are everybody else’s.”

And as Peter Lim said: “when you are holding stocks, if it goes up, don’t be too happy; when it goes down, don’t be too sad.”

:)
 

culepico

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I generally agree (and whichever is easier get bonus points, of course).

But just to wrap things up on my end, I did a run through S&P 500 from 1 January 2000 to 1 December 2019 (making sure to hit the 2008 crash). On the same assumptions as previously, the average figure for a DCA person through this period would be ~1,571.77 whereas culepico's methodology results in ~1,577.79. That means ~105.55% returns for the former and ~104.77% for the latter. Difference is truly slight (but the DCA results, I think, lends support against the alleged efficacy of culepico's methodology).

Interesting. Now I know that my method only works on certain trends and not on others. I must have been simulating using a trend that just happens to fit my methodology. Not a 100% work that I've previously assumed.

Thanks for even bothering to go through the tedious process of calculating and presenting the numbers here. Cheers for you! :)
 
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