Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[s0crates]

People like to look purely from a cost angle, but IBKR is so much more powerful and the reports are so detailed.

Not everything is about the money and costs. IBKR is generating huge value with their reports.

hi do you have the link for that spreadsheet? or rough month of post? so i can refine the search.

 

[eighthours]

People like to look purely from a cost angle, but IBKR is so much more powerful and the reports are so detailed.

Not everything is about the money and costs. IBKR is generating huge value with their reports.

i see, that's a new insight. hmm i can see why traders might pay for reports. but if im a buy and hold, index guy, i might not benefit as much. am i missing something?

 

[bobobob]

ST, could I ask why not fsmone to buy/hold for sg/global stocks?

From the site, I don't see any platform/management fees. For stocks/etf. Is there a holding fee that I missed out?
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/new-to-fsm/pricing-structure

Source 2: 7. What are the custody fees for FSMOne Account?
There are no custody fees for SGX-listed, HKEX-listed and US-listed Stocks and ETFs in your FSMOne Account.

Fsmone doesn't give access to London stock exchange

 

[cassowary18]

ST, could I ask why not fsmone to buy/hold for sg/global stocks?

From the site, I don't see any platform/management fees. For stocks/etf. Is there a holding fee that I missed out?
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/new-to-fsm/pricing-structure

Source 2: 7. What are the custody fees for FSMOne Account?
There are no custody fees for SGX-listed, HKEX-listed and US-listed Stocks and ETFs in your FSMOne Account.

For sg stocks, definitely FSMOne is a yes, unless you got priority banking in another bank. For US stocks, FSMOne has dividend handling charges, so you might need to factor that into the equation.

You probably also know that Shiny Things discourages individual stock picking and furthermore discourages buying US domiciled ETFs vs Irish domiciled due to the higher dividend withholding tax. So it's not surprising that we don't discuss brokers for the US market much here.

 

[s0crates]

I used both, and the amount of time wasted retrieving historical trade details on that scb platform is a pain in the ass.

Also, if you reach a huge amount in scb, how are you going to transfer to ibkr? By liquidating?

i see, that's a new insight. hmm i can see why traders might pay for reports. but if im a buy and hold, index guy, i might not benefit as much. am i missing something?

 

[3sniper]

For sg stocks, definitely FSMOne is a yes, unless you got priority banking in another bank. For US stocks, FSMOne has dividend handling charges, so you might need to factor that into the equation.

You probably also know that Shiny Things discourages individual stock picking and furthermore discourages buying US domiciled ETFs vs Irish domiciled due to the higher dividend withholding tax. So it's not surprising that we don't discuss brokers for the US market much here.

So which broker(s) should we consider for the Irish domiciled ETFs with regards to buy/hold and active trading punters with <=SGD100,000 and >=SGD100,000 amounts? IBKR, SCB? TDAm etc...? I also notice certain brokers like dollardex, IG, CMC are not mentioned at all here, I wonder why.

 

[Shiny Things]

So which broker(s) should we consider for the Irish domiciled ETFs with regards to buy/hold and active trading punters with <=SGD100,000 and >=SGD100,000 amounts? IBKR, SCB? TDAm etc...? I also notice certain brokers like dollardex, IG, CMC are not mentioned at all here, I wonder why.

I thought I already covered this: use Interactive. (Then again, if you're actively trading, you should just trade futures instead.)

The reason I don't recommend CFD brokers like IG and CMC is twofold: firstly, CFDs are a terrible product, whether you're an active trader or a long-term investor. They use margin, which is not great for long-term investors; and active traders won't like CFDs because the carry cost is much higher than either buying/selling the underlying on margin, or using futures.

CFD brokers are targeted at degenerate retail punters with gambling problems. Stay away from them.

 

[cassowary18]

So which broker(s) should we consider for the Irish domiciled ETFs with regards to buy/hold and active trading punters with <=SGD100,000 and >=SGD100,000 amounts? IBKR, SCB? TDAm etc...? I also notice certain brokers like dollardex, IG, CMC are not mentioned at all here, I wonder why.

Doesn't dollardex only sell unit trusts?

 

[LyzeOfKiel]

We can see the some of the global stock are recovering back steadily.

There is many analysis (include SG gov) that we are expecting a economy recession ahead due to the impact on covid-19, are we going to expect another dip in global stock?

Understand that we only need to invest 1k monthly and ignore the noise since the strategy is to buy for 20 to 30 year, just like to hear the view & opinion from the ground. Think there will be a few that is interesting to know this question too.

 

[Shiny Things]

There is many analysis (include SG gov) that we are expecting a economy recession ahead due to the impact on covid-19, are we going to expect another dip in global stock?

Understand that we only need to invest 1k monthly and ignore the noise since the strategy is to buy for 20 to 30 year, just like to hear the view & opinion from the ground. Think there will be a few that is interesting to know this question too.

I guess my question would be: what would you change if you knew a dip was coming?

And then I'd say: how sure are you of that?

Look, I genuinely have no frickin' idea what happens next. US stocks have rallied pretty sharply—I'm genuinely surprised how much, and I'm also surprised that European and EM stocks haven't come to the party. I don't know where they're going to go next—I've been thinking the valuation discrepancy between US and EM stocks will eventually tighten, and boy howdy have I been wrong about that for years.

Bonds have stabilised, which makes a lot of sense (anyone who panicked at the drawdown in MBH is going to be feeling a bit silly now, it's now pretty much unchanged YTD).

And let's assume that you can't know this stuff in advance. If you can know this stuff in advance, then you can make a ton of money at the hedge fund of your choice.

So - unless you know what's going to happen in advance, there's not a lot of value in panicking and following every news headline. Maybe stocks dip... it's great, you get to buy more at a lower price. Maybe EM stocks catch up to US stocks... also great.

 

[flowerpalms]

Why do you want to know if there is a dip? How is it going to affect you?

Yes you buy the dips. But you buying the dips is not because the price has gone down in that sense. You buy the dips is when you continue to DCA every month, ignoring noises like what you say, buying when the price goes up and down.

We can see the some of the global stock are recovering back steadily.

There is many analysis (include SG gov) that we are expecting a economy recession ahead due to the impact on covid-19, are we going to expect another dip in global stock?

Understand that we only need to invest 1k monthly and ignore the noise since the strategy is to buy for 20 to 30 year, just like to hear the view & opinion from the ground. Think there will be a few that is interesting to know this question too.

 

[chrisloh65]

You raised a very important point - That is, stock market vs main-street (real businesses) disconnect!

Would stock prices continue to rally or stay high (currently -16% from its peak) when economy is contracting so badly?
Remember, the stock market peak is achieved when the economy and real-businesses are expected to be at their rosiest!
But this didn't pan out, and in fact we are facing a global recession, something that has not happened for past 30 years! And stock market still near the historical peak?

Obviously there is another school of thought which will encourage you to continue to buy buy buy regarding of stock prices and market conditions and real economy situations - so that you can help to probe up the stock prices, to help to preserve the jobs of people working in financial and investment sectors, and pay their fat salaries and bonuses. I sense these people have own personal interests in mind for preaching such thought.

So I had taken my money off the table, and the decision of what you going to do is up to you.

We can see the some of the global stock are recovering back steadily.

There is many analysis (include SG gov) that we are expecting a economy recession ahead due to the impact on covid-19, are we going to expect another dip in global stock?

Understand that we only need to invest 1k monthly and ignore the noise since the strategy is to buy for 20 to 30 year, just like to hear the view & opinion from the ground. Think there will be a few that is interesting to know this question too.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Erm. Not sure where you're getting those numbers from. Looking at the Bloomy I see VUSD actually yielding a bit more than 0.85 * VOO. There could be any number of reasons, though.

I am just using my Yahoo Finance app. Yahoo Finance shows that for VOO, dividend yield is 2.24% while VUSD is 1.58% (almost exactly 70% of 2.24%).

I was thinking the numbers dont make sense, unless it's due to timing differences in dividend distribution... Thanks!

 

[BBCWatcher]

Would stock prices continue to rally or stay high (currently -16% from its peak) when economy is contracting so badly?

Maybe. Stock valuations are generally regarded as leading indicators, not pacing or lagging.

Remember, the stock market peak is achieved when the economy and real-businesses are expected to be at their rosiest!

No, they're generally supposed to peak when real business prospects are rosiest. The real value of a business is based on its assets (cash and cash equivalents, plant, equipment, intellectual property, etc.) and its expected future prospects. Furthermore, stock prices are expressed in a particular currency, and currency-related effects can also have some impact on stock prices.

But this didn't pan out, and in fact we are facing a global recession, something that has not happened for past 30 years!

So what was the Global Financial Crisis then?

Obviously there is another school of thought which will encourage you to continue to buy buy buy regarding of stock prices and market conditions and real economy situations - so that you can help to probe up the stock prices, to help to preserve the jobs of people working in financial and investment sectors, and pay their fat salaries and bonuses.

Ah, no, that's not how it works. The financial sector's salaries and bonuses are much bigger thanks to day traders, other market timers, and volatility. Dollar cost averaging long-term investors buying low cost, well diversified index funds aren't keeping anybody's champagne flowing.

 

[iamnotshawn]

If I have a fixed amount to invest from my paycheck every month, it's better to use fsm rsp yea? Since it has a minimum $1 for each buy order. Looking hold it long term.

Ive also got a lump sum that I wanna split it into 4 parts to buy in periodically. I can still amend the rsp monthly amount if I want to include the lump sum for that month yea?

Sent from Samsung SM-G988B using GAGT

 

[chrisloh65]

Coming bubble burst will be worst than Global Financial Crisis, the worst since more than 30 years ago.

And Michael Burry has this to say:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...plains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos

Index Fund Investment Strategy: Michael Burry Warns of Bubble

Burry, who made a fortune betting against CDOs before the crisis, said index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he said, and “it will be ugly” when they do.


There is no prize in guess whether you are better investor or Michael Burry? The answer is obvious isn't it?

Maybe. Stock valuations are generally regarded as leading indicators, not pacing or lagging.


No, they're generally supposed to peak when real business prospects are rosiest. The real value of a business is based on its assets (cash and cash equivalents, plant, equipment, intellectual property, etc.) and its expected future prospects. Furthermore, stock prices are expressed in a particular currency, and currency-related effects can also have some impact on stock prices.


So what was the Global Financial Crisis then?


Ah, no, that's not how it works. The financial sector's salaries and bonuses are much bigger thanks to day traders, other market timers, and volatility. Dollar cost averaging long-term investors buying low cost, well diversified index funds aren't keeping anybody's champagne flowing.

 

[flowerpalms]

Depends how much are you investing per month

Less than 1k use rsp and scb
1k and above use scb and ib

For rsp yes can still amend but is also hassle as before the new month deduction comes you must terminate then invest everytime. But you still hold the no. of shares

If I have a fixed amount to invest from my paycheck every month, it's better to use fsm rsp yea? Since it has a minimum $1 for each buy order. Looking hold it long term.

Ive also got a lump sum that I wanna split it into 4 parts to buy in periodically. I can still amend the rsp monthly amount if I want to include the lump sum for that month yea?

Sent from Samsung SM-G988B using GAGT

 

[BBCWatcher]

There is no prize in guess whether you are better investor or Michael Burry? The answer is obvious isn't it?

Yes, fairly obvious, because Michael Burry is a successful speculator. I'm not a speculator and do not speculate.

By the way, I'm quite happy to buy stocks at lower prices.

 

[yourplaceormine]

I currently have a lump sum of ~25k which I wish to invest. I normally invest only about $500 a month on average, so considering the current market levels, would it be wise to pump the lump sum into my portfolio, or what kind of time frame should I be looking at to DCA this amount?

I currently use SCB, and in the case that I were to DCA the lump sum alongside my current investment amount, I would probably be looking at an amount above 1k every month. Would it then be wise to switch to IB or should I just stick with SCB?

 

[flowerpalms]

Divide your lump sum into 4-5 parts instead of going all in

If it is at least 1k, use SCB for ES3 and MBH, IB for IWDA

I currently have a lump sum of ~25k which I wish to invest. I normally invest only about $500 a month on average, so considering the current market levels, would it be wise to pump the lump sum into my portfolio, or what kind of time frame should I be looking at to DCA this amount?

I currently use SCB, and in the case that I were to DCA the lump sum alongside my current investment amount, I would probably be looking at an amount above 1k every month. Would it then be wise to switch to IB or should I just stick with SCB?