Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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kennycancan

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Oooh. If you're looking at asset management and becoming a PM, the answer's going to depend on which asset class you're interested in. Are you thinking bonds; equities; vol...?

Hi ST, Yes, I'm looking at asset management and wish to venture into front office roles (such as PM) many years down the road.

I'm extremely interested in equities!

Any books to recommend?
So far I've read these

-"Rich by Retirement" by ST
-"Random Walk down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel
-"Way of the Wolf" by Jordon Belfort
 
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iceblendedchoc

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I have passed a test in SGX SIP Online Education Module. I wonder if that's considered as an qualification?

you dun have to be honest about the declaration if you want to buy. You just need to "pass" one of the three fields.

But if you are not honest, you are not accord any rights of protection, if any, under the SFA and FAA.

:s13: take your pick
 

hahaman111

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I was reading the product highlight of MBH and found this:

The Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective by adopting a
representative sampling strategy or similar strategy. Representative sampling
is a strategy of investing in a representative sample of securities in the Index
which have a similar investment profile as that of the Index. The Manager may
invest in certain securities that are not included in the Index ("non-Index
Securities") but have aggregate characteristics (such as yield and duration)
similar to those of the Index. The Fund can invest up to 20% of its total net
asset value in such non-Index Securities. The Fund will generally not hold all
the securities that are included in the Index.


Doesn't that means that I wouldn't be getting the index return. And kinda subject to the manager bond picking ability?
 

ftpofmpo

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There's speculation that s&p 500 might be overhauled? what are the implications for retail investors?

if it's changed now will it be a buy hi sell lo situation?
 

crystalnox

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There's speculation that s&p 500 might be overhauled? what are the implications for retail investors?

if it's changed now will it be a buy hi sell lo situation?
There's no "overhaul", it's just the index doing it's self cleansing of companies that no longer meet it's requirement to be in the index, as it should.
 

ftpofmpo

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There's no "overhaul", it's just the index doing it's self cleansing of companies that no longer meet it's requirement to be in the index, as it should.

n what would be the implications since its mentioned to be not just a small change
 

Shiny Things

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There's speculation that s&p 500 might be overhauled? what are the implications for retail investors?

I haven't heard anything about this, so I'd be happy to take a look if you have a particular article you've seen. That said, my reflex is that no, this will not make any difference to anyone. The value you get for your 5bps or 20bps or whatever in ETF fees is that the fund manager takes care of all this index-realignment malarkey for you.

I was reading the product highlight of MBH and found this:

[…] The Fund can invest up to 20% of its total net
asset value in such non-Index Securities. The Fund will generally not hold all
the securities that are included in the Index.


Doesn't that means that I wouldn't be getting the index return. And kinda subject to the manager bond picking ability?

This is something that’s not unique to MBH—it’s something that all bond ETF managers have to deal with. (And this, again, is another example of the useful things you get for your 20bps a year.) This is going WAY too deep for most people, but let’s dive in anyway; the short answer is that ETF managers will try to track the index using whatever tools they have at hand, to get you as close as possible to the index return.

Index ETF managers always try to track the index as closely as possible. They’re not paid to outperform; tracking error in an index ETF is bad for their job security no matter which direction it’s in.

The tricky thing with bond ETFs is that there may be a bond in the index that’s very closely held, or had a very small issue size, so you literally can’t buy it in the right proportion to track the index. In that case, a good bond ETF manager will say “OK, which of the bonds that I can buy will have a nice tight correlation to the bond that I can’t buy?”. And instead of buying Illiquid Bond X, they’ll buy a little more of Liquid Bond Y That Tracks Closely To The Illiquid Bond.

(This, incidentally, is a genuine problem in junk bond ETFs! The big high-yield indices tend to have a few underlyings that are very illiquid, which makes them hard to buy, and this is why junk-bond ETFs tend to have larger tracking error than IG or equity ETFs. As a side-effect, it also makes those individual issues trade a bit richer than issues that aren’t included in the index.)

Hi,

I saw something in the news about a MSCI reweighing, but can't find much information online. Was wondering how this would impact an index like IWDA which tracks the MSCI World?

Cheers!

Also, a third thing that ETF managers do so you don’t have to worry about it. Basically what happens is that under the hood, the fund manager sells the stocks that are leaving the index, and buys the stocks that are coming in. You don’t have to worry about any of it.

Any books to recommend?
So far I've read these

-"Rich by Retirement" by ST
-"Random Walk down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel
-"Way of the Wolf" by Jordon Belfort

Firstly, Jordan Belfort is a jackass. He was a penny-stock pump-and-dumper, not someone you want to emulate. You can ignore him. (As far as pop-finance writing goes, Michael Lewis’ Liar’s Poker is the classic of the genre.)

It’s very dated now, and value investing has been absolutely crushed over the last decade, but The Intelligent Investor might be a good next read for you. Don’t get over-excited and go out looking for “stocks trading below book value!” (They’re all banks) or “margins of safety!”, but the principles are still valid.

On that note, Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety is also a classic of the equity-valuation genre; it’s out of print and horrifically expensive (currently $1,050 on Amazon, and no that is not a typo), but—and you didn’t get this from me—the google search results for “margin of safety klarman +filetype:pdf” are truly enlightening. taps nose

Tried to get SWRD but I had to do CAR and I got this. Any way to get it? Already transferred SGD to USD account.

If you tell them you’ve done six trades or whatever, they don’t check. I’m just saying.

H[…]what is the cap on how much should we invest in overseas markets? (IWDA) I mean, like is there a certain amount whereby it becomes taxable to a point where the rate of returns are getting lesser till there is no point in investing in overseas market anymore?

Erm. This question doesn’t make a lot of sense, if I’m being honest. The constraint on how much you invest overseas is not tax (you’re a Singaporean resident, the only tax you pay is on dividends), it’s your

what are the 3 ETF fund portfolio again?

ES3 (local stocks); MBH (local bonds); IWDA (global stocks). 

Is FSMOne the best broker for me... a new investor looking to invest maybe $200-400 per month?

Yes it is.

Btw, I have a CDP account on SGX... and there's this thing about Custodian and CDP...

That “thing about custodians and CDP” is, as we like to say in Australia, a furphy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furphy . Your shares are just as safe with a custodian like Stanchart or FSM as they are at the CDP.

why are ETFs that are tracking MSCI World Index recommended over those that are tracking S&P 500 Index? thought that S&P 500 would have better performance.

The S&P 500 had better performance. That’s not a guarantee that it will have better performance.

If one were to invest in S&P 500 index, which one should we go for?

SPY, IVV, Cspx?

We’ve been over this a fair bit, I think. You don’t need or want to overweight US stocks; if anything, you’re buying them after they’ve gone up, which is not the right time to buy them. Buy IWDA instead. But if you must, CSPX is the best way to buy the S&P 500.

Shiny Things, can I get some advice on what China etfs are most attractive from a volume/share class exposure/tax efficient pov?

I have a 100% iwda equity portfolio (will still continue to dca regularly) and some money in SSB. I am thinking of weighting 5% on a china etf just as a side bet for the long term.

Oof, “how do I China?” Is one question that pops up occasionally where there really are no good answers, and search is busted so I can’t find my previous answers. The problem is that the Chinese share market is difficult to invest in directly, so you have to go around.

My question would be, do you want China + HK + Taiwan, or specifically China?

Has anyone looked at the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

It seems interesting. The unusual part is the commodities which I have no idea of its behaviour in different market conditions.

All Weather pops up a lot here too, and the person who pointed out that it’s designed for billionaires is right.

The general principles are pretty sensible—broad asset allocation, rebalance regularly, etc etc etc. It’s not a million miles away from what I recommend. The thing that makes All Weather inappropriate for most investors is the huge allocation to cash and commodities—nearly 50% of the portfolio, in most variants of All Weather.

That’s appropriate for a squillionaire like Ray Dalio, who should care about conserving his wealth more than he cares about growing it. But for the rest of us, who aren’t squillionaires and don’t run our own hedge fund slash corporate cult, you want a lot less allocation to conservative assets and a much bigger focus on growth. All Weather, for most of us, is a waste of money.

mortgage loans for banks seems to be extremely safe, since property prices are stabilised by government. In this case, pegging loan interest to sibor rates seems like free money for banks.

Any defaults banks can just repossess. plus loan value is not 100% of property value

Noooooope. That was the mentality that caused gargantuan losses for mortgage lenders and investors in 2008. Mortgage lending isn’t a slam dunk.

Y can't individuals/groups or crowdsourced platforms offer similar mortgage loans? maybe at even more competitive interest rates to snatch businesses from banks
Couple of reasons, completely leaving aside the legality of it:

  1. Individual investors can’t borrow at Sibor. You’ll pay more than that to borrow, which makes investing in mortgages less compelling.
  2. Even if you have an 80% or 70% LTV, you’re still going to be on the hook for the residual if property prices drop 20-30%;
  3. Repossessing a house and reselling it costs money. You’re going to incur another 5-6% in fees and charges and costs if you have to resell.

I mean, it could work, but all crowd-lending platforms tend to have very shaky histories for various reasons.

Are ETFs the most safe? Would you recommend investing into individual stocks?

Yes they are, and no I wouldn’t. Here’s the thing: when you invest in an individual stock, you’re betting that you are smarter than all of the professional traders and investors who think about nothing but stocks, 24/7, and have been doing it for years. And you might get lucky and pick one or two good stocks—but on average, you’ll spend a lot of time picking individual stocks, and you’ll probably do worse than the people who just bought an index ETF. Don’t waste your time or your money.

Hello everyone,

With the introduction of IBKR Lite, is it currently a better option than the IBKR Pro / SChart Online?

IBKR Lite isn’t available to Singaporean residents yet, and we don’t know if or when it ever will be.

Hello,

Just wanted to check, what base currency should you use for your IBKR account? Is it SGD or USD?

SGD is the easiest.

And do I have to open another currency account with another bank? :s22::s22:

No you don’t. You can deposit and withdraw SGD to IBKR, and then convert it inside IBKR.

I agree that I can buy local stocks and bond ETFs in TWD such as the famous 0050 in Taiwan to build my own 3 fund portfolio. However, to trade IWDA, the best broker for someone in Taiwan would be IB, but the minimum commission will be a pain for someone that does not trade frequently and just buy and hold.

Oh come on, no. You’re talking about spending hundreds of bucks on a plane ticket, and then hundreds a year in FX conversion costs, just to save ten bucks a month? Just open an account with Interactive Brokers.
 

kennycancan

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Firstly, Jordan Belfort is a jackass. He was a penny-stock pump-and-dumper, not someone you want to emulate. You can ignore him. (As far as pop-finance writing goes, Michael Lewis’ Liar’s Poker is the classic of the genre.)

It’s very dated now, and value investing has been absolutely crushed over the last decade, but The Intelligent Investor might be a good next read for you. Don’t get over-excited and go out looking for “stocks trading below book value!” (They’re all banks) or “margins of safety!”, but the principles are still valid.

On that note, Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety is also a classic of the equity-valuation genre; it’s out of print and horrifically expensive (currently $1,050 on Amazon, and no that is not a typo), but—and you didn’t get this from me—the google search results for “margin of safety klarman +filetype:pdf” are truly enlightening. taps nose

Thank you ST, I appreciate it. I really like your humour :s13::s13: (One of the many things that made "Rich by Retirement" interesting to read.
 
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blinkblink228

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I know this has been asked and addressed many time before. But i still am trying to have a full grasp on it.

I understand that it was said that since you're holding the stock/etf, shouldn't have to worry about a stronger/weaker dollar as the value of the stock/etf will be affected accordingly.

But searching on the correlation between the dollar and stock market gave me varying answers. Is there anything deeper i can read into that can help me understand this better?
 

shadowsworn

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any thoughts on Small Cap Value Index Funds? Should they form part of the portfolio allocation or are they actually already considered in IWDA + EIMI?
 

ftpofmpo

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I haven't heard anything about this, so I'd be happy to take a look if you have a particular article you've seen. That said, my reflex is that no, this will not make any difference to anyone. The value you get for your 5bps or 20bps or whatever in ETF fees is that the fund manager takes care of all this index-realignment malarkey for you.

bloomberg reported it, not sure how true though

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-looms-for-world-s-most-followed-stock-index

On that note, Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety is also a classic of the equity-valuation genre; it’s out of print and horrifically expensive


everyone should not hesitate in getting copies of seth's book for free via gray channels. by design as a marketing technique it's kept out of print as a forbidden fruit to motivate people to get their hands on a free copy to read his book. any royalties he might have earned if it's in print (it's not) any royalties to him is negligible and rounded off to nil, just like how nobody will go to extremes and pick up a 1 cent coin across the street

"Thank you for taking time to complete the Customer Account Review ("CAR") evaluation. Based on your responses, you have been assessed not to possess the investment knowledge ... (Listed SIPs)*.

That's just to cover their own side in case you make any losses and want to hold them liable for selling you a product you don't understand. physically replicated etfs based on well known index are safer than individual stocks for investors. (synthetic etfs are not) if you really want, you can get do a few virtual simulated stock trades to try out and gain some simulated experience
 
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cassowary18

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any thoughts on Small Cap Value Index Funds? Should they form part of the portfolio allocation or are they actually already considered in IWDA + EIMI?

IWDA: developed economies large + mid cap
EIMI: emerging economies large, mid and small cap
WSML: developed economies small cap

You'll do fine with just IWDA, though.
 

limster

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IWDA: developed economies large + mid cap
EIMI: emerging economies large, mid and small cap
WSML: developed economies small cap

You'll do fine with just IWDA, though.

Shiny's answer would be that if your portfolio is still small, adding a tiny % of anything else won't matter.

So it is kind of weird that there are those who are just starting out with say, $1k a month worrying about whether they should put say some money into EM or Small Cap or Bitcoin or whatever... seriously 10% of $1k isn't going to make much of a difference to whether you can retire by age 62- compared to say, increasing your salary.
 

bladez87

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what would be the recommendation on DCA schedule if one has a lump sum to invest at this moment?

Could you provide a few schedules covering the following sources?
1) cash only
2) cash + cpf OA

How would the warchest amount affect the suggestions you made?

i have IBKR and SCB priority, which allows me to manually DCA via SCB without min comm charges.

having lost a significant amount during the GFC, I sat out of the market for 10 years. And I realized my folly on hindsight, as DCA through the same period would have resulted in a much more profitable outcome.

would Reits be a good substitute for ES3 or bonds given their constant dividend payout?

thanks
 
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