Official Shiny Things thread—Part IV

[newjersey]

hi ST,

1. what do you think of the Belt Road Initiative?

if you are not biased towards it as a loan trap for the countries, do you think it will propel these countries forward into the millenia silk road?

why is China taking such a huge gamble on being a lender to such projects with countries that isn't creditworthy?

2. can you explain deflationary depression & inflationary depression?

which is the better of the two for us to be in?

your thoughts, pls?

thanks.

 

[popol]

Greetings. I got a question for users of StanChart trading account.

Before buying IWDA on LSE, I check the USD-SGD exchange rate by doing a dummy transfer (not executed) from SGD to USD in my StanChart Account.

When I receive my contract note after 2-3 days, I see a statement like this:

For GST purposes, the exchange rates are USD 1.00 = SGD 1.3651

However that exchange rate in the contract note is not the same as the one I saw in my dummy transfer.

How do I find the correct rate used by StanChart on that day?

Thanks

 

[popol]

Just go to investing . Com for live prices

The promo for live prices in LSE is available for IB US or IB SG account?

Does investing.com give live prices for LSE?

Thanks

 

[limster]

How do I find the correct rate used by StanChart on that day?

When you change S$ into US$, the rate is confirmed at the point the change is made.

 

[DevilPlate]

From my personal experience, SCB fx spread is really bad.
I rather pay custody fees.

 

[popol]

When you change S$ into US$, the rate is confirmed at the point the change is made.

Yeah but the rate shown is not the same as the one in the transaction statement. Any idea?

 

[crystalnox]

From my personal experience, SCB fx spread is really bad.
I rather pay custody fees.

Typ. 0.3% still decent for the light investor.

 

[hwckhs]

Is there anyway to reduce the FX spread of SCB?

Is SCB's LiveFX any better than its standard conversion?

Does priority banking help? Anyone contacted their RM and got a better rate? How much better?

 

[limster]

Yeah but the rate shown is not the same as the one in the transaction statement. Any idea?

Its the same for me. I use livefx as it's a newer interface so the rate is easier to see, especially for beginners not familiar with trading. Just use livefx.

 

[limster]

Is there anyway to reduce the FX spread of SCB?

Is SCB's LiveFX any better than its standard conversion?

Does priority banking help? Anyone contacted their RM and got a better rate? How much better?

LiveFX shows the guaranteed exchange rate. The old way of doing it by transfer between account, I think the rate is 'indicative', so in a sense LiveFX is better for greater certainty, but we are talking about minute differences.

 

[chrisloh65]

Depends. If you exchange large amount and become Gold member of SCB LiveFx, the exchange rate is very good! Furthermore, if you exchanged only once, it is definitely more worthwhile than paying monthly custody fee.

From my personal experience, SCB fx spread is really bad.
I rather pay custody fees.

 

[chrisloh65]

If you use SCB LiveFX, the exchange rate is fixed at the amount you agreed to transact.

That Contract Note exchange rate you see is not the actual rate when you see the dummy transfer, so that is why it is different. (The contract note is generated 1 day later and probably using the 1 day later rate).

Greetings. I got a question for users of StanChart trading account.

Before buying IWDA on LSE, I check the USD-SGD exchange rate by doing a dummy transfer (not executed) from SGD to USD in my StanChart Account.

When I receive my contract note after 2-3 days, I see a statement like this:

For GST purposes, the exchange rates are USD 1.00 = SGD 1.3651

However that exchange rate in the contract note is not the same as the one I saw in my dummy transfer.

How do I find the correct rate used by StanChart on that day?

Thanks

 

[chrisloh65]

Hey mate - look, I know your nickname is “street fighter”, but this thread isn’t the place to fight. If you want to argue about the credit quality of the Chinese banks, start a thread in SSI. (Heck, I’d even come in there and join you.)

Shiny Things,

I was looking through the sequence of events and replies from various parties, and it seems streetfighter is responding to your false allegations that:
"The reason those Chinese banks trade so freakin’ cheap is basically because Chinese government policies are squeezing the banks’ margins; and because nobody seems to know exactly how bad the loan books are ... "

Clearly streetfighter and a few of us here do not agree with you, and why you can make false allegations (without providing evidence and facts to back up) regarding China banks here in this thread and then telling streetfighter (and others like me here) that we cannot correct you regarding the false allegations you made here in this same thread?

Why are you behaving so badly like an arrogant and opinionated and winding woman?

I compiled the various replies to your post for all to see as evidence here:

China looks cheap because the market is heavy on banks, and Chinese banks trade CHEAP. Most other sectors of the Chinese market—tech, consumer staples, consumer discretionary trade pretty much in line with where those sectors trade in the rest of the world.

But the CSI300 is >30% financials and 11% tech + communications; while the SPX is basically the other way around (38% tech + communications, and 10% financials). And those financials trade far cheaper than the equivalents in the USA—Chinese banks trade at a P/E ratio of around six-and-a-half, while the US financial sector trades at a PE ratio around 14.

The reason those Chinese banks trade so freakin’ cheap is basically because Chinese government policies are squeezing the banks’ margins; and because nobody seems to know exactly how bad the loan books are and how much the banks will be able to offload to the AMCs.

In short—saying “China is cheap” amounts to saying “Chinese banks are cheap”, which amounts to saying “the market is mispricing Chinese banks’ loan books; the default rates and recovery rates will be better than expected, and also the government will take its foot off the banks’ neck and let them actually earn some money”.

This "because nobody seems to know exactly how bad the loan books are" sounds like typical west news propaganda to smear Chinese banks without evidence just because they are cheap. They cannot read these banks financial reports? Lol
Oh just remember they can't because they written in chinese

It has nothing to do with "propaganda." Shiny Things is explaining why Chinese bank stocks are trading at low multiples to (purported) earnings. The market consensus view is that these banks have comparatively low value since investors are concerned about their credit exposures, and they have reason to be concerned. It's not because nobody can read Chinese financial reports and other evidence; it's because they can. After all, these bank stocks are listed and traded in stock markets that happen to be located in China. Investors in China who speak, read, and write Chinese are the ones valuing these banks at low multiples, too. Mostly investors in China, actually. Investors outside China have relatively little influence over these bank stocks' valuations.

If you disagree with the consensus of investors around the world including in China about these valuations, as Shiny Things already pointed out you're certainly free to take long positions in Chinese bank stocks (unless you think the current valuations are too high). He even told you the ways to do it if you're interested in such speculation.

Looks like such fake news has lot of supporters! Ok i will be going 100% into China ETF. I see great opportunity for large profits here.
There was a time when US banks also trading at low prices & people start spreading rumours & i made a bundle!

Hi Shiny and everyone,

Based on the recommendations here for China ETFs, I found these sectoral biasedness.

2801: >32% Consumer discretionary
2822/2823: >42% Financials
2846: >30% Financials

Is being overweight in consumer discretionary less risky than in financials? Thanks.

Um. Both of them are “risky”, inasmuch as you’re making a bet that Chinese-consumer-discretionary or Chinese-financials will outperform whatever else you might have invested in. That’s the bet you’re making, and I don’t think either one is necessarily better or worse.

Why you fret China banks when they are all SOEs with China Gov implicit guarantee? You just need to see US even bailing out private US banks you will know. So, just ignore those lies from western media & esp Americans!

Hey mate - look, I know your nickname is “street fighter”, but this thread isn’t the place to fight. If you want to argue about the credit quality of the Chinese banks, start a thread in SSI. (Heck, I’d even come in there and join you.)

 

[FrostWurm]

Why are you behaving so badly like an arrogant and opinionated and winding woman?

Look, if you want to post these types of statements, it is no surprised that you will get reported, and maybe even banned.

It is best that you state your points and leave it as it is.

 

[tesarise]

Look, if you want to post these types of statements, it is no surprised that you will get reported, and maybe even banned.

It is best that you state your points and leave it as it is.

can please don't quote? ppl put him on ignore list for a reason

 

[cassowary18]

Don't feed the troll. His homophobia got the other thread shut down.

 

[omnipage]

Shiny, what do you think of the OCBC tech-focused ETF (https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ocbc-to-list-tech-focused-etf-on-sgx)

 

[Kayeesha]

Many thanks Shiny for your kind patience in answering my questions.

Uh... I don’t think this is necessary. It’ll just be a huge pain in the behind; just use the IBKR SG account for everything.

Transferring everything to IBKR SG means losing SIPC protection. Do you view this protection as redundant?

Also, I will need to settle some GBP denominated debt next year. Would having IBKR LLC be a better vehicle than IBKR SG to facilitate such a payment? Which means I will have to keep the LLC account?

Hmm. SOEs are a huge part of the Chinese economy though. This seems like an extremely niche play, and if people come to me asking “how can I get Chinese equity exposure”, leaving out a big chunk of the market doesn’t seem like exactly what they want.

Also, don’t be led astray by the fund manager’s marketing. That’s literally just advertising for the fund... and creative-enough marketers can make a case for just about anything.

I have come to realise that China’s investment landscape is more complex after all. With an equity market dominated by SOEs, I will need to understand the idiosyncrasies of China’s SOEs as well.

However, I am prone to analysis paralysis due to information overload. So, I think I will go along the same line of not picking stocks and not pick SOEs and select a China ETF that is most diversified. Would this be prudent?

Thanks.

 

[netsit]

Shiny, what do you think about the newly launched dimensional etfs:
Dimensional US Core ETF, the Dimensional International Core ETF and the Dimensional Emerging Markets Core ETF.

I hold some Dimensional globally diversified equity UTs on top of IWDA - I know there are substantial overlaps in their holdings but to me its more of just having an equal bet also on the dimensional tilt towards value/smallcap/profitability.

It seems like now that the costs have been reduced via an ETF structure, it makes sense to have it as a replacement to the same dimensional UTs.

 

[ppnldd]

Looking to turn up the risk a little

Hi all,

I'm 29 this year, and have been doing a consistent 90% IWDA and 10% STI etf DCA for a year now, and cant help but wonder whether it makes sense to take a higher level of risk to achieve greater portfolio returns.

This is especially when exciting news on topics such as cryptocurrency (or DeFi) and electric vehicles (US, China) taking the spotlight for the past few weeks. NIO's 1000%+ stock price surge in 2020 alone is just way too eye-catching.

1. Does allocating a 10% of portfolio on 'risker bets' make sense? (10% of portfolio to be incremental, i.e. IWDA+ STI etf absolute amount will still remain, and I'll allocate 10% more from savings to investments) The idea is to bank on a 10x-ish return on a small portion of portfolio
2. If so, any recommendations on stocks/etf to choose? I guess most sector/geographical focused etfs have very high expense ratios that doesnt quite make sense?
3. If not, what else would you recommend to turn up the risk profile a little bit more?

Many thanks!