Open Electricity Market (OEM) [NO SHARING/REQUEST OF CODES] - Part 5

[hfngshnll]

......so won't have such crazy surges (our govt will definitely step in to intervene as well)

the sp tariff is there for a reason, why need to artificially intervene the price discovery process of real time wholesale demand vs supply ?

last year i posted what happened to real time wholesale prices in november. it was a short 4-day massive spike, way above the moving average. the month-average was smoothed out that showed a small increase over the "normal" months.

for more historical information about usep (wholesale prices), can read here :
https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch05/index5

 

[hfngshnll]

I went ahead an signed up for iSwitch 6 months DOT, 25%. I think it is the best deal if you are looking for short term.

oil price the last quarter was around 40, this quarter should be around 60. expect a huge tariff increase for the next quarter. DOT25% may not be a good choice. very likely to be higher than the current fixed price plans. good luck.

 

[Devilsire]

Different lah. They didn't anticipate power generating facilities to fail(such as wind turbine freeze & slowed pumps in the gas powered generators) and combined with the cold weather leading to a large increase in demand thus leading to a 1000% price surge. Singapore's power generation grid has been pretty stable, so won't have such crazy surges (our govt will definitely step in to intervene as well)

In any case, it'll also be a domino effect if it happens here. Singapore's oem retailers also buy from SP wholesale, so even if the surge does not affect you immediately, it might be possible a similar surge in price(if prolonged for a few days) might bankrupt all the retailers due to them buying in super high and selling to consumers at low. End up all go back to SP and SP wholesale

Yes oem retailers also buy from SP wholesale. But they have also hedged their risks via vesting contracts with SP as well as Electricity Futures Market.
https://www.openelectricitymarket.sg/business/resources/vesting-contracts
https://www.ema.gov.sg/Electricity_Futures_Market.aspx
Domino effects will be the updated regulated tariff -> more expensive %off tariff / fixed price packages offered by OEM

Whereas with SPWS, you are clearly on your own to foot the bill based on realtime 1/2 hourly tariff. Govt have already did their part to offer Default regulated quarterly tariff by SP supply which is hedged against such spike risks, as well as opening up OEM market for competitive market options. Expecting stable with zero surges or govt step in to help is naive, akin to self belief that nothing will happen, opted out of default medisave coverage and expecting help in footing the bill should one is hospitalized

End of the day, it's up to individual's preference of risk management or appetite and some of us are just sharing to educate what may happen

For info, i hedged against possible rising tariff (above $0.152/kWh) & spws surge just by paying a total of $13 premium over 24 months after taking into account of bill rebate offered by OEM (reference against SPWS average of $0.150/kWh and based on avg mthly consumption of 200kWh)

 

[a4973]

Yes oem retailers also buy from SP wholesale. But they have also hedged their risks via vesting contracts with SP as well as Electricity Futures Market.
https://www.openelectricitymarket.sg/business/resources/vesting-contracts
https://www.ema.gov.sg/Electricity_Futures_Market.aspx
Domino effects will be the updated regulated tariff -> more expensive %off tariff / fixed price packages offered by OEM

Whereas with SPWS, you are clearly on your own to foot the bill based on realtime 1/2 hourly tariff. Govt have already did their part to offer Default regulated quarterly tariff by SP supply which is hedged against such spike risks, as well as opening up OEM market for competitive market options. Expecting stable with zero surges or govt step in to help is naive, akin to self belief that nothing will happen, opted out of default medisave coverage and expecting help in footing the bill should one is hospitalized

End of the day, it's up to individual's preference of risk management or appetite and some of us are just sharing to educate what may happen

For info, i hedged against possible rising tariff (above $0.152/kWh) & spws surge just by paying a total of $13 premium over 24 months after taking into account of bill rebate offered by OEM (reference against SPWS average of $0.150/kWh and based on avg mthly consumption of 200kWh)

Mind sharing which oem you signed up to? Thanks

 

[JustDoLor]

I don’t have the original post. But juz manage to search and found, re-extracted the chart as below....

hopefully u r referring to this.... but it didn’t show what u r expecting.

Sauce: https://www.solar-repository.sg/up/...dology-SERIS-future-power-price-scenarios.pdf

digress a bit from your post.

about 2 years ago, you put up an excellent post with a chart that showed the behaviour of various pricings over a 10 year period. that post from the previous parts of this thread is no longer accessible now.

it would be very useful if you could re-post again for everyone here who has not seen that post & chart.

especially the earlier period when wholesale prices were higher than sp tariff over an extended period of time.

 

[Devilsire]

Mind sharing which oem you signed up to? Thanks

i switched from Ohm to TuasPower, best offer currently out of the 3 OEM offering integrated SP billing.

However promo now nerfed abit as compared to when i signup in Dec, probably due to forecast increase of future tariff rates. Now if based on the same calculated average consumption with current promo of $88 rebate, will be a total $55 premium over 24mths, i.e paying "insurance premium" of $2.30 monthly to cover against rising tariff and surge pricing for 24mths (based on estimation of SPWS average rate of $0.15/kWh)

 

[Devilsire]

I hope you guys are following what is happening in the US:
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1361689737946398720

Wholesale electricity has risks. I was on SP Wholesale for the last fews months. But I dont want to be penny wise pound foolish. I am moving to fixed price OEM tomorrow.

Not just US, Japan too
https://www.statista.com/chart/23919/price-of-wholesale-electricty-japan/

Although yup in Sg there's much lower risks due to no natural disaster and no need for winter heating. However nobody can foresee any surge arising from supply decrease, demand increase or extraordinary incidents like blackout, outrage, generator breakdown etc

Spoiler

https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch05/index5

https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch03/index3

 

[swordspirit]

Spoiler

https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch05/index5

https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch03/index3

yap, the key issue is how much electricity 1 use during that spike period. best to just log in to a fixed rate. who know suddenly the LPG was halted due to machine breakdown and the electricity rate spike 2000%

 

[revhappy]

Yes oem retailers also buy from SP wholesale. But they have also hedged their risks via vesting contracts with SP as well as Electricity Futures Market.
https://www.openelectricitymarket.sg/business/resources/vesting-contracts
https://www.ema.gov.sg/Electricity_Futures_Market.aspx
Domino effects will be the updated regulated tariff -> more expensive %off tariff / fixed price packages offered by OEM

Whereas with SPWS, you are clearly on your own to foot the bill based on realtime 1/2 hourly tariff. Govt have already did their part to offer Default regulated quarterly tariff by SP supply which is hedged against such spike risks, as well as opening up OEM market for competitive market options. Expecting stable with zero surges or govt step in to help is naive, akin to self belief that nothing will happen, opted out of default medisave coverage and expecting help in footing the bill should one is hospitalized

End of the day, it's up to individual's preference of risk management or appetite and some of us are just sharing to educate what may happen

For info, i hedged against possible rising tariff (above $0.152/kWh) & spws surge just by paying a total of $13 premium over 24 months after taking into account of bill rebate offered by OEM (reference against SPWS average of $0.150/kWh and based on avg mthly consumption of 200kWh)

Very well summarized. It doesn't matter even if for one decade SPWS is lower than regulated tariff but just one spike in one month can really screw us up. It is not worth the risk, when there are options. For me even the 25% DOT is good enough. That is 1/4th of the bill off and my consumption is not huge, so no need to really over analyse this,in my view.

 

[hfngshnll]

I don’t have the original post. But juz manage to search and found, re-extracted the chart as below....

hopefully u r referring to this.... but it didn’t show what u r expecting.

Sauce: https://www.solar-repository.sg/up/...dology-SERIS-future-power-price-scenarios.pdf

thanks for sharing this again. reference the blue residential tariff and black usep lines. prior to 2012, the gap was not very wide, if the other line items in the wholesale bill are added to the usep number, wholesale price would be very close to sp tariff or even higher in some of the quarters. retailers can bark up to 30% discount only when the gap widened so much on the right side of the chart due to big increase in generation capacities.

 

[lynchavez]

Nice one! Great

 

[TROLLER]

guys, I switched from Ohm back to SP.

Did you guys encounter getting a request of another $65 for deposit?

I thought last time already got a deposit? Or not enough?

 

[gregory_choo]

guys, I switched from Ohm back to SP.

Did you guys encounter getting a request of another $65 for deposit?

I thought last time already got a deposit? Or not enough?

I thought sp refunded you last time?

 

[TROLLER]

I thought sp refunded you last time?

most probably? not sure. I'll just go ahead and pay and wait for CS call back.

 

[redhouse]

guys, I switched from Ohm back to SP.

Did you guys encounter getting a request of another $65 for deposit?

I thought last time already got a deposit? Or not enough?

Can ignore. I switched from Ohm to SPWS, received the request for deposit letter too. They will adjust in your next bill.

 

[azeris10]

Why ppl so worried about half hour USEP spikes?

If u not using AMI meter, how does SP know when u using when comes to billing except the cut off timing for reading.

If you on AMI meter then different story.

SP wholesale still cheapest so sticking with it.

 

[Milo Van]

Can ignore. I switched from Ohm to SPWS, received the request for deposit letter too. They will adjust in your next bill.

Adjust in next bill meaning dont have to pay anything right?

They will use our previous SP deposit to offset?

I dont remember SP refunding me previously when I switched to OHM.

I'm also planning to switch to SPWS from OHM, but do not wish to pay any extra deposit.

 

[gregory_choo]

Why ppl so worried about half hour USEP spikes?

If u not using AMI meter, how does SP know when u using when comes to billing except the cut off timing for reading.

If you on AMI meter then different story.

SP wholesale still cheapest so sticking with it.

if not using ami meter, the usage is based on national profile, that means that a certain percentage of your usage is at certain 1/2 hour period. you will be charged accordingly, including the spike.

 

[windwaver]

I hope you guys are following what is happening in the US:
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1361689737946398720

Wholesale electricity has risks. I was on SP Wholesale for the last fews months. But I dont want to be penny wise pound foolish. I am moving to fixed price OEM tomorrow.

 

[windwaver]

if not using ami meter, the usage is based on national profile, that means that a certain percentage of your usage is at certain 1/2 hour period. you will be charged accordingly, including the spike.

Bro, do you mean if want to switch to SPWS, it's better to run on AMI meter?