PARC ESTA - THREAD

[NiShiZhu]

2029 complete, investment maybe.

Affinity also needs 2024/2025 to TOP.

 

[annetyu]

Affinity has its own within walking distance to future Serangoon north mrt. (Approx 5 mins walk)
It’s value (whether overprice or underprice) is not determined by its distance to Serangoon central.

Like wise for future Serangoon central site. But definitely it will not be cheap. Not forgetting Serangoon central mrt is a circle line.

Even before serangoon north mrt was announced, affinity alr selling for $1500+psf.

It's value I think can be compared to other recently launched condos. Just only about a year before affinity was launched, forest woods (5mins from serangoon mrt) was launched for $1350psf. If serangoon central is $1350psf, serangoon north should be $1200psf.

Even though affinity is at a more ulu location, it is going for $150psf more than forest woods which to me totally makes no sense. Taking into account 1 year of inflation, at most, I feel it should be priced at $1350psf which is the value of serangoon central condo (forest woods) 1 year ago and this is already at a 12.5% inflation rate.

I've been staying aro serangoon too for long, and this is not any normal appreciation in prices I've ever seen. Its is absurd. Can't imagine serangoon central condo going for $2,200psf next year.

Luckily singaporeans are very rich so oxley is able to move units despite being overpriced.

 

[annetyu]

It’s value (whether overprice or underprice) is not determined by its distance to Serangoon central because no one knows the future land price at Serangoon central site.

It seems like land value/price is currently determined by developers. Singaporeans being rich, can still afford even if they feel the project is not worth and will buy if they want to buy a new launch.

For example. Even though professional property valuation valued Eunosville at 643mil, MCL being so hungry for land, paid a whopping 122mil more than valuation and what the owners wanted.

We powerless buyers, have no choice but to accept those prices.

 

[NiShiZhu]

Even before serangoon north mrt was announced, affinity alr selling for $1500+psf.

It's value I think can be compared to other recently launched condos. Just only about a year before affinity was launched, forest woods (5mins from serangoon mrt) was launched for $1350psf. If serangoon central is $1350psf, serangoon north should be $1200psf.

Even though affinity is at a more ulu location, it is going for $150psf more than forest woods which to me totally makes no sense. Taking into account 1 year of inflation, at most, I feel it should be priced at $1350psf which is the value of serangoon central condo (forest woods) 1 year ago and this is already at a 12.5% inflation rate.

I've been staying aro serangoon too for long, and this is not any normal appreciation in prices I've ever seen. Its is absurd. Can't imagine serangoon central condo going for $2,200psf next year.

Luckily singaporeans are very rich so oxley is able to move units despite being overpriced.

Forest wood was launched around the same time as grandeur park. Both are almost sell out project (now left only 4/5 bedders) because both project pitch their price quite reasonably I must say. That’s was also the time when property sentiments starts to pick up at it’s early stage, especially for those at good location.
Do note they can sell cheap because they also acquire the land cheap at that time.

Affinity and garden are enbloc cases, developer paid a high bid price (because they hope to ride on the good buying sentiments) but unfortunately, they didn’t expect July 2018 CM to be implemented so soon and sudden. Thus, they have to face the music to lower from 16xxpsf to 15xxpsf or even 14xxpsf to move their units.

U see, even affinity and forest wood are only difference by 1 year, the impact can be so big. It is not about the location anymore, it is about the right timing or wrong timing.
It’s not about oxyley has the control over the situation anymore.
If oxyley has a crystal ball, do u think they will still acquire the land at that kinda price?
Timing is not only important for buyers, but also important for Developers.
If twin vew was launched after July CM, u think they can still sell at 15xxpsf and With above 80% sold?

At this juncture, I wanted to reserve my comment whether it is worthwhile to pay affinity at $1500 psf, because no one knows the future. If by some reasons or change in Govt policy/CMs and Serangoon central site was bid at the wrong timming, they may end up the same fate like oxyley.
By that time, who knows affinity might look dirt cheap compare to Serangoon central site?

If everyone can time the market so accurately, the whole street will fill with billionaires.

Well, every district will have their own supporters. Affinity sells well because pple compare affinity with the Florence (same district) and the price difference is not big. Thus, with future mrt advantage, affinity managed to move more units definitely. We cannot keep saying they Kum gong because I believe these people has done some research and make their own comparison. Why some die die must buy west side while some die die must stay east side? There are many possible reasons such as proximity to work place, parents home or children’s school etc.

Buyers also can go back and buy the left over forest wood/grandeur park units (at a more reasonable psf) but bare in mind what is left is all the 4/5 bedder with big quantum, there’s not much choice left. I understand where u coming from but We cannot keep reminiscing in the past because situation now has changed.

 

[annetyu]

I do agree with most of your thoughts.

However, whether or not there are cooling measures, $300psf difference from a launch just one year ago and at a poorer location makes no sense at all. And the price of fairly new resales in the area don't even come close.

To me, it is just developers exploiting buyers. Because they know if all of them bid high collectively, buyers have no choice but to accept the pricing.

Anyway, lets just observe the market for now. Things are already moderating with lacklustre bid at sims drive.

And btw, garden was not enbloc land and both affinity and garden were launched before cooling measures.

 

[NiShiZhu]

I do agree with most of your thoughts.

However, whether or not there are cooling measures, $300psf difference from a launch just one year ago and at a poorer location makes no sense at all. And the price of fairly new resales in the area don't even come close.

To me, it is just developers exploiting buyers. Because they know if all of them bid high collectively, buyers have no choice but to accept the pricing.

Anyway, lets just observe the market for now. Things are already moderating with lacklustre bid at sims drive.

After so many exchanges and discussions, I know u r quite knowledgeable about property news and probably seasoned too. However, There’s some part we have to agree to disagree too.

Sometimes, the ball is not on developer’s side. Their agenda is clear, profit driven.
Govt is the big boss deciding how the game should be played.
Buyers are not forced to buy at an obscene price, they have a choice not to buy.


Cheers.
By the way, I’m not an Aunty. Don’t anyhow change my gender hor.

 

[Clazav]

Not surprising that the plot beside nex can be 2kpsf eventually. It should be more popular than woodleigh residences as it is a mrt interchange. It is a gem to many Northeasters.

wow, by your reasoning, the plot beside serangoon mrt station will go for over $2,000psf since affinity ($1,500psf) is 2km away from serangoon central.

Or is affinity overpriced?

but yes, distance to mrt matters.

 

[Zze121]

Woodleigh resi dev is SPH and Kajima, wonder they can manage the mall?

 

[NiShiZhu]

Not surprising that the plot beside nex can be 2kpsf eventually. It should be more popular than woodleigh residences as it is a mrt interchange. It is a gem to many Northeasters.

Honestly, No one knows.
If two years ago, I came here and tell everyone that woodleigh residence site is going to launch 2xxxpsf in near future, Im sure everyone here will mock at my stupidity.
If In the near future Serangoon central site really launch at 2kpsf, don’t u think affinity buyers will be laughing all the way to the bank?

U see, even those buyers who adopt the wait and see attitude sometimes doesn’t benefitted much from the waiting. Who would expect the latest CMs also target the first time buyers and Kenna punished by reducing from 80%LTV teduced to 75%LTV. This 5% difference is a substantial amount for first time buyer.

I’m neither a bull or a bear, I like to study past history and trends, I like to learn from mistakes so I won’t repeat them again.
Property investment is basically summarized in 3 words, 天时(timing) 地理 (location) 人和 (buying sentiments/market force)

 

[1993newbie]

Yea, no one expect the LTV to be lowered to 75%. I’m one of the first timers. I was stunned on that night. Been looking around and balloting for new launches since I got 20% bullet ready but one bedder gets sold out damn fast.

Hold n behold ,that night... Damnnnnnn, devastated , wasted plus mix emotion.
Change game lo, look at resale. lowered down budget. Heng Heng managed to get a unit I like.

On the bright side, Mortgage not too high tho. Since downpayment a lot mah. Monthly mortgage solely via OA. Not too bad afterall.

Honestly, No one knows.
If two years ago, I came here and tell everyone that woodleigh residence site is going to launch 2xxxpsf in near future, Im sure everyone here will mock at my stupidity.
If In the near future Serangoon central site really launch at 2kpsf, don’t u think affinity buyers will be laughing all the way to the bank?

U see, even those buyers who adopt the wait and see attitude for too Long also suffers.
Never did I expect the first time buyers also Kenna punished by latest CMs from 80%LTV teduced to 75%LTV.
This 5% difference is a substantial amount for first time buyer.

I’m neither a bull or a bear, I like to study past history and trends, I like to learn from mistakes so I won’t repeat them again.
Property investment is basically summarized in 3 words, 天时(timing) 地理 (location) 人和 (buying sentiments/market force)

 

[NiShiZhu]

Yea, no one expect the LTV to be lowered to 75%. I’m one of the first timers. I was stunned on that night. Been looking around and balloting for new launches since I got 20% bullet ready but one bedder gets sold out damn fast.

Hold n behold ,that night... Damnnnnnn, devastated , wasted plus mix emotion.
Change game lo, look at resale. lowered down budget. Heng Heng managed to get a unit I like.

On the bright side, Mortgage not too high tho. Since downpayment a lot mah. Monthly mortgage solely via OA. Not too bad afterall.

Just curious, which project u visited that night?
Park colonial, riverfront or stirling?
I’m sure with the 5% LTV reduction, it will also limit your choice in choosing ur first choice units right?

 

[annetyu]

Yea, no one expect the LTV to be lowered to 75%. I’m one of the first timers. I was stunned on that night. Been looking around and balloting for new launches since I got 20% bullet ready but one bedder gets sold out damn fast.

Hold n behold ,that night... Damnnnnnn, devastated , wasted plus mix emotion.
Change game lo, look at resale. lowered down budget. Heng Heng managed to get a unit I like.

On the bright side, Mortgage not too high tho. Since downpayment a lot mah. Monthly mortgage solely via OA. Not too bad afterall.

Don't you find buying resale more worth it? It is cheaper and can get rental income immediately. Your returns would be much lower if you had bought a pricey new launch.

I did not know that one bedders are sold out for all new launches? I will go check it out.

 

[1993newbie]

That particular afternoon, I was at Park colonial. When the news came out in the evening, I just started my night shift. Well, my agent call me and ask me if I would like to put down on any of the 3 project on that night itself.

Thought through for a few hours and nah, don’t wanna make rash decision. Hence I told her to give me a week or Two to absorb and recalculate my finances. Walao, buy house not buy vegetable plus I can’t just text my boss and ask for early dismissal with reason “Boss, I need to get off from work coz I need to buy house”.

So I lowered my Budget lo and bought a resale 1 bedder for Low 500k. Cheap cheap good good. Happy buyer me!

Just curious, which project u visited that night?
Park colonial, riverfront or stirling?
I’m sure with the 5% LTV reduction, it will also limit your choice in choosing ur first choice units right?

 

[annetyu]

Woodleigh resi dev is SPH and Kajima, wonder they can manage the mall?

Probably under SPHreit, like clementi mall.

 

[1993newbie]

Yea for resale wise, the price are cheaper than newly launch ones. Plus mine was a tenanted unit! I get the income property straightaway! Well, remaining two Months rents , not too bad too. Rental yield gross was 3.9% for mine.Plus the owner let go the unit fully furnish! I just move in with my luggage only lo. I bought for my own stay actually.

Yes, for new launch back then 1 bedder so fast sold out le. My last balloting was Twin Vew, walao only got 1 stack of one bedder. But that’s fine, in the end I got a good resale unit.

Don't you find buying resale more worth it? It is cheaper and can get rental income immediately. Your returns would be much lower if you had bought a pricey new launch.

I did not know that one bedders are sold out for all new launches? I will go check it out.

 

[Zze121]

Honestly, No one knows.
If two years ago, I came here and tell everyone that woodleigh residence site is going to launch 2xxxpsf in near future, Im sure everyone here will mock at my stupidity.
If In the near future Serangoon central site really launch at 2kpsf, don’t u think affinity buyers will be laughing all the way to the bank?

2012, Watertown launch average 1217psf - Comment is "crazy price in end of D19", first month sold 770 units
2015, Northpark launch average 1348psf - Comment is "crazy in D27", took 4yrs to sellout
2016, Poiz launch average 1418psf - very quiet, not many talks about it, maybe it's MCC, strata etc
2018, Woodleigh launch 2000psf - nobody interested cos it's 2k psf, and the mall management, bus interchange is a question mark


Season buyer will like to know who is the developer, who manage the mall, when the lease starts, is MRT track above ground or under ground?
Others will ask is it FH/LH? how many car parks?


Quite subjective if you view it in all angles, and beside NEX is confirm better, as buyer surely buy sometime which is already there unless URA come out new pattern.

 

[annetyu]

Honestly, No one knows.
If two years ago, I came here and tell everyone that woodleigh residence site is going to launch 2xxxpsf in near future, Im sure everyone here will mock at my stupidity.
If In the near future Serangoon central site really launch at 2kpsf, don’t u think affinity buyers will be laughing all the way to the bank?

U see, even those buyers who adopt the wait and see attitude sometimes doesn’t benefitted much from the waiting. Who would expect the latest CMs also target the first time buyers and Kenna punished by reducing from 80%LTV teduced to 75%LTV. This 5% difference is a substantial amount for first time buyer.

Woodleigh is still considered severely overpriced by the market, which is why the sales are pathetic. Park colonial was already overpriced at that time but still digestible because unit sizes shrank even further to make quantum affordable.

Its already April and woodleigh residence still not "officially launched" yet. Developers still cracking their heads or waiting for prices to appreciate?

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/private-home-prices-drop-06-in-q1-ura-flash-data

Prices are probably going to be stagnant for the next couple of years. I think buyers can afford to adopt the wait and see attitude during this time. But be alert when developers trigger another round of bidding war. We are in no position to compete with those big and mighty developers...

 

[Zze121]

After Woodleigh launch, Park Colonia sale was extremely good, it adsorb bulk of Woodleigh customers. Imagine just cross the road and it's 300~400psf cheaper.

 

[annetyu]

After Woodleigh launch, Park Colonia sale was extremely good, it adsorb bulk of Woodleigh customers. Imagine just cross the road and it's 300~400psf cheaper.

Park colonial is lucky. Agents can "trick" buyers of park colonial into believing that there is plenty of room for appreciation by comparing with woodleigh.

Fact is, woodleigh is likely to revise its pricing downwards or give away mercedes e classes when it is "officially launched".

 

[NiShiZhu]

Park colonial is lucky. Agents can "trick" buyers of park colonial into believing that there is plenty of room for appreciation by comparing with woodleigh.

Agree on the part on woodleigh being overpriced but not the part on park colonial
Park colonial has its own attributes and potential.
Next to mrt, 1 stop away to Serangoon central with mega mall, few stops to Dhoby Ghaut, next to a sizeable mall, next to international schools, and the environment there is quite pleasant to stay. There will also be an underground bus interchange across the road. It’s a city fringe project with no lack of transport and good accessibility. For that price of 17xxpsf, I feel is justifiable. Figures don’t lie, it is selling reasonably well due to various attributes.
If twin vew can sell at 15xxpsf, I don’t think park colonial price is ridiculous. I visited the SF and I must say the furnishing, location, layout is quite good, even better than woodleigh residence.

Woodleigh at 2xxxpsf people are still not ready to digest yet because it is undeniably overprice and there are better options elsewhere like park place residence at similar psf and is deem to have much more potential compared to woodleigh. No need further elaboration on that.

I’m always open to buyers who look for resale instead of new launches (provided it is worth it). Not every resale is worth buying. After years of buying/selling, I noticed there’s always a limitation in profit gain when the resale was passed on to 2nd buyer. Basically 3rd buyer will suffer the most because they usually paid a higher price than previous owner but holding on a resale with the lowest lease left. Every resale unit has a cap ceiling in terms of price appreciation due to its reducing lease and probably the condo wear and tear condition.

Let me quote an example since u are very familiar with Kovan melody.
Kovan melody 2 bedder was launched at 490k in 2005, my fren sold it at 1.08mil to 2nd buyer a few years back. (This is the market price back then). Look at the recent transaction, it barely cross 1.04mil after so many years. I pity the 2nd buyer.

I try to understand y the second buyer is willing to pay at 1.08mil for a Two bedder unit in Kovan melody. It is probably because stars of Kovan of similar size is launched around 1.3x mil at that time. Thus, the buyer who paid 1.08mil may think he got himself a good deal by comparing to new launch like stars of Kovan.

If go by your logic, is the 2nd buyer better off in buying resale? With the stamp duty plus the price he paid, he is still holding on a negative asset.

What’s the moral of the story? If u buy a new project at the right price, right location, u have the first buyer advantage. I have bought both resale and new project before, thus I am able to quote examples on this. Not too Long ago, I just sold my terrace to my 3rd buyer. The transaction done by another similar unit sees a 200k drop just recently. I’m worried for my buyer because I dunno how many years he would take to break even the price he paid for my unit.