Signs of bottoming out? Whats ur view?

[koxinga]

hmm.. the market is trading sideways at the moment. However, i feel that the full effect from the financial crisis would start to manifest in the general economy only in 2009. In effect, this is the calm before the fall.

last 4 years have been great for equitites and had a tidy amount. still, this time round, got stuck with 37K of paper loss. Didnt see that coming and was frankly too greedy at one point. However, I have not given up on the equitity market yet, but i think it is not the right time to enter. Rather, it is a time to save up.

oh yes, hands up, one of those old timers! nice to see henry still around.

 

[moneytalk.sg]

aiya what is all this talk about rally and bearish? just buy SGS Bond confirm will make money, dun even need to bother with the market cause SGS is issues by our government and our government can print money from thin air, confirm wont make a lost like the lehmen. just buy 15 years SGS bond, confirm will out win most investment out there.

I will post 2014 to tell u all how much i earn from the my SGS bond, Cheers!

I think that's totally misleading. No doubt, SGS bonds is a very low risk or even a no risk investment. But I doubt the returns can beat equities in the long run.

 

[Al-Jay]

aiya what is all this talk about rally and bearish? just buy SGS Bond confirm will make money, dun even need to bother with the market cause SGS is issues by our government and our government can print money from thin air, confirm wont make a lost like the lehmen. just buy 15 years SGS bond, confirm will out win most investment out there.

I will post 2014 to tell u all how much i earn from the my SGS bond, Cheers!

Can share what is the yearly returns on sgs bond? Thks!

 

[guowei]

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/pub_guide/faqs/publ_faqindinvestors.html

All you need to know about SGS bond and T-bills. Yearly return depend on the type of bond u buy. And even if bond price do drop, the bonus or the maturity rate wont change.

Equities? All i see is paper that either have little to no value (Lehmen, citigroup... etc) or is a scam (Madoff).

Since i make it a point not to invest in anything that i cant understand within 5 minutes so i know i'm just not educated enough in this equities thingy ba, so dun bother to flame me about how equities work and that not all Equities is scam or something

Yes i'm acting stupid since i'm rejecting most investment method but i dont really care now since i'm wayyyyy too poor to invest in high end product T.T

I will stuck to simple stuff like gold and SGS bond and FD. I will happily read any post that feature simple, workable investment method like putting money in bank and earning 0.0125 interest rate in return.

Low return yes, wont be able to fight off inflation yes(we are in a deflation period? cant really tell with all this credit crunch and the inflated transport fares), but at least i will be able to sleep at night! Cheers.

 

[sinsyd]

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/pub_guide/faqs/publ_faqindinvestors.html

All you need to know about SGS bond and T-bills. Yearly return depend on the type of bond u buy. And even if bond price do drop, the bonus or the maturity rate wont change.

Equities? All i see is paper that either have little to no value (Lehmen, citigroup... etc) or is a scam (Madoff).

Since i make it a point not to invest in anything that i cant understand within 5 minutes so i know i'm just not educated enough in this equities thingy ba, so dun bother to flame me about how equities work and that not all Equities is scam or something

Yes i'm acting stupid since i'm rejecting most investment method but i dont really care now since i'm wayyyyy too poor to invest in high end product T.T

I will stuck to simple stuff like gold and SGS bond and FD. I will happily read any post that feature simple, workable investment method like putting money in bank and earning 0.0125 interest rate in return.

Low return yes, wont be able to fight off inflation yes(we are in a deflation period? cant really tell with all this credit crunch and the inflated transport fares), but at least i will be able to sleep at night! Cheers.

Hi there, my personal opinion is that one should keep an open mind on the different investment opportunities and financial instruments out there. Situations are always changing, never say never. In any case, it doesn't hurt to understand how other financial instruments work. U can build up your knowledge in this way.

 

[Rex217]

Interesting views.

 

[cheers]

Earlier this year, there were many of them in these forums, talking about their superior analysis and trading strategy. Most seem to have disappeared, so can't find out how their portfolio did at the end of 2008. Many could have gone bust if they used leverage or margin financing.

Instead we see more recently registered accounts popping up. We see a lot of talk now, same pattern as 2007, 2008. So my view is wait till end of 2009, will these nicknames still be around, or again replaced by yet another batch.

I will stick to reading the blogs/analysis/views of investors with proven track records and who give info about their portfolio in the blog.

care to share which blogs/analysis/views of investors that deem reliable?

 

[asdf7911hwz]

blogs on US markets

for those interested in good blogs - here are some. pls note that these are on the US markets. they also have commentary on world economy. i only look at these because i trade US indices (frankly there is not much movement in sg markets - quite boring i say - , furthermore the voilatility in US markets is greater, thus there is more trading range) note that they are not to be taken as investment advise but more to either help confirm or reasses my view of the direction of US makets. once in a while there is some banter and useless chatter there but that should not derail you from the objective analysis:


http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/list?user=0v3fzmzsg2c7b <---impressive charts.
http://astrocycle.net/
http://evilspeculator.com/
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

the next one is not a blog but more of a website from a US company promoting the view that social mood drives the markets, rather than external news drives the markets (and external news are just a result of social mood. closely related with elliotwave international which is a US-based financial forecasting firm)

http://www.socionomics.net/

 

[asdf7911hwz]

Earlier this year, there were many of them in these forums, talking about their superior analysis and trading strategy. Most seem to have disappeared, so can't find out how their portfolio did at the end of 2008. Many could have gone bust if they used leverage or margin financing.

because they either never beliefed in the bear market or never say the real extent of the bear market and thus underestimated it. they only saw the tip of the iceberg. when the market recovered in sep 07 after the subprime crisis most people thought the worst is over.

then during the first half of 2008 people were mixed - most saw a bottoming process in july 08. frankly after waiting for a few months from jan 08 to july 08 i too was tempted to go long but i waited for the trend to confirm itself - and the axe finally fell in sep 08 (with lehman bros collapse). thus i joined the shortselling party in sept08 and oct08 when the world finally came to terms, unwillingly, with the onslaught of the bears. as of now we are in a lull period, my take is - more downside in 2009 and 2010. never rely on mainstream media nor on the PPT (plunge protection team) nor on the FED nor on warren buffet's old school bull mentality, as they (the bulls) will take every opportunity during a lull period to try to boost public confidence in the markets and try to sell news of recovery coming round the corner. the bulls are still in denial. Since we are in a very big bear market now, take some time to get used to being bearish and practice shortselling (but no need to do it everyday, and watch out for short squeeze traps though. and i dont deny the possiblity of a rally lasting up to first half of 2009 as well).

if you really want to know how big the bear market is going to be, i have found charts dating back to the fall of the roman empire (1000 AD). stock markets didnt exist then, however if you plot the progress of human civilisation from 1000 AD to 2000AD - with integrating the chart of the dow from 1776 to 2008 - then you will see that 2000-2007 was literally the tip of the iceberg. we are correcting a 1000 yr bull run. so if you think the subprime crisis, or this current crisis, or the asian financial crisis or the 2001-2003 bear years, or even the great depression was that great, think again. we are just starting a correction for a 1000 yr bull run. call it the start of great depression round II if you may, and i know this will be too absurd for most people to accept and i dont mind being slammed as a doomsayer but we cannot ignore this possibility. as long as i am able to trade shorts i dont mind living in great depression round II, though i will have to face a world with very very negative social mood. (other areas of life will also be aversely affected, that i have to live wiht as well)

then again maybe those who disappeared were real experts - the exited with good profits just at the top of the market or at least just after the initial drop from the top and took a big break during the bear run. lol

 

[windroar]

f you plot the progress of human civilisation from 1000 AD to 2000AD - with integrating the chart of the dow from 1776 to 2008 - then you will see that 2000-2007 was literally the tip of the iceberg. we are correcting a 1000 yr bull run.

ROTFL, u are such a clown.

 

[limster]

care to share which blogs/analysis/views of investors that deem reliable?

Quite reliable is - http://ghchua.blogspot.com/ - for others, just check the blogs that he links to.

Sadly the blogger in http://extraordinaryprofits.blogspot.com/ went into retirement because of work commitments, but hope to see him restart again....

 

[Mecisteus]

aiya what is all this talk about rally and bearish? just buy SGS Bond confirm will make money, dun even need to bother with the market cause SGS is issues by our government and our government can print money from thin air, confirm wont make a lost like the lehmen. just buy 15 years SGS bond, confirm will out win most investment out there.

I will post 2014 to tell u all how much i earn from the my SGS bond, Cheers!

are you sure you want to buy SGS bonds? did you check its historical rate? see yourself a chart of 5 year SGS bonds


well i see so many bearish and suicidal comments from this thread. actually the more you see, the better. see the similarity when people say its going to get higher during bull run? thats the peak. so you can try to think contrarian this time

 

[guowei]

are you sure you want to buy SGS bonds? did you check its historical rate? see yourself a chart of 5 year SGS bonds


well i see so many bearish and suicidal comments from this thread. actually the more you see, the better. see the similarity when people say its going to get higher during bull run? thats the peak. so you can try to think contrarian this time

Sure why not? Since most investor are buying US bond and US T-bills, why shouldnt we buy SGD bond? Its safe, its low risk, sure it doesnt make as much profit as most investment out there during the bull run at 2007 but ITS TOTALLY SAFE AND SCAM FREE!

How many investment u know of that is totally safe? 100 percent back up by singapore government? other then hiding ur money under ur bed la.

I could only think of gold and silver, but i'm already covered in that area too!

The new age is coming! The age of super Low Risk investment! The New Age investors will be so scare of investment that they will all buy T-bills, Bonds, FD, gold and hiding money under their bed!, those who buy stocks market and equitys will be scolded by their parent who had lost all their saving in Lehmen and Madoff!

Haha, i'm getting off track, anyway the point that i like to make here is that I'm totally a low risk type of investor so my view wont count much.

 

[icyspawn]

NOTHING is "totally safe"

 

[henrylbh]

Sure why not? Since most investor are buying US bond and US T-bills, why shouldnt we buy SGD bond? Its safe, its low risk, sure it doesnt make as much profit as most investment out there during the bull run at 2007 but ITS TOTALLY SAFE AND SCAM FREE!

How many investment u know of that is totally safe? 100 percent back up by singapore government? other then hiding ur money under ur bed la.

I could only think of gold and silver, but i'm already covered in that area too!

The new age is coming! The age of super Low Risk investment! The New Age investors will be so scare of investment that they will all buy T-bills, Bonds, FD, gold and hiding money under their bed!, those who buy stocks market and equitys will be scolded by their parent who had lost all their saving in Lehmen and Madoff!

Haha, i'm getting off track, anyway the point that i like to make here is that I'm totally a low risk type of investor so my view wont count much.

If you are totally low risk type, stick to sg bonds. Forget about US bonds and bills which carry curreny risk. You should also forget about gold and silver that carry risk on capital and currency.

 

[pier]

aiya what is all this talk about rally and bearish? just buy SGS Bond confirm will make money, dun even need to bother with the market cause SGS is issues by our government and our government can print money from thin air, confirm wont make a lost like the lehmen. just buy 15 years SGS bond, confirm will out win most investment out there.

I will post 2014 to tell u all how much i earn from the my SGS bond, Cheers!

haha sure can make $$$ unless govt ran out of ink or papers for printing money

 

[asdf7911hwz]

ROTFL, u are such a clown.

exactly! this is the part where 99% of people find it hard to accept - that we are now just starting to correct a 1000 yr bull run in terms of the progress of civilisation. dun worry bro your reaction is normal.

 

[Al-Jay]

ST Interview with Oei Hong Leong:

"He believed this crisis is 10 times worse than the Asian financial crisis in 1997 - when only Asia was hit - and worse than the 1974 oil crisis."

"The stupidest thing to do is to average".

"Dont try to make a fortune in this market. It is more important to keep cash."

 

[sinsyd]

if you really want to know how big the bear market is going to be, i have found charts dating back to the fall of the roman empire (1000 AD). stock markets didnt exist then, however if you plot the progress of human civilisation from 1000 AD to 2000AD - with integrating the chart of the dow from 1776 to 2008 - then you will see that 2000-2007 was literally the tip of the iceberg. we are correcting a 1000 yr bull run. so if you think the subprime crisis, or this current crisis, or the asian financial crisis or the 2001-2003 bear years, or even the great depression was that great, think again. we are just starting a correction for a 1000 yr bull run. call it the start of great depression round II if you may, and i know this will be too absurd for most people to accept and i dont mind being slammed as a doomsayer but we cannot ignore this possibility. as long as i am able to trade shorts i dont mind living in great depression round II, though i will have to face a world with very very negative social mood. (other areas of life will also be aversely affected, that i have to live wiht as well)

Interesting posting there. Are you suggesting that even with govt intervention everywhere, this vicious cycle is not going to stop anytime in 2009, 2010 or even in 2011?

 

[Rex217]

ST Interview with Oei Hong Leong:

"He believed this crisis is 10 times worse than the Asian financial crisis in 1997 - when only Asia was hit - and worse than the 1974 oil crisis."

"The stupidest thing to do is to average".

"Dont try to make a fortune in this market. It is more important to keep cash."

oh.. but so what? Thats his opinon btw. For me i just follow buffet's rule "Buy when fear is the greatest"