yup. my take is that for 2009 to 2011 (or even 2012) the main trend is still down. definitely will be some rallies here and there, accompanied by mass media and govt bodies trying to boost public optimism. but then more and more bearish news will pile up. our latest socially bearish news is the pub in thailand that went up in flames on new yr eve countdown and the casualties. you see, the overall social mood has already turned bearish. its something like - we are all back in the starting point of the 2001-2003 bear market again, just that its going to be about 3x as bad. Well what actually moves the financial markets? what actually moves the stock prices? is it a piece of announcemtn over the news? no. its actually the collective psychology (the social mood) of the stock market participants that move the prices, not the government intervention. you can try to have a bailout or two here and there, some stimulus packages, cutting interest rates, etc those can cause the social mood to change a bit to a knee jerk rally in stock prices but what happens overall after that? it doesnt stay up for long. the bigger trend is still down.
and why 2012...we have forecasts that go all the way to 2016 as the ultimate market bottom.. but we all know - the further you project, the less accurate it might get, so i stick to 2012 as a target date . so for now i am not so bold as to see 2016 as the bottom. so i look closer and pick 2012. its also linked to the mayan prophecy of doomsday being dec 21st 2012. yeah it sounds like nonsense but why not? anyway it provides a convenient date to put as a first cut date to watchout for.
