Singapore Savings Bonds

[maumu]

Using SBJUL18 and $10k as an example: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBJUL18/10000 , I personally would not swap because:

• Up until Jul 2023, the profit only gets as high as $4, but if you consider the cost of swapping ($2 to redeem, another $2 to apply), then there is no profit at all.
• From Aug 2023 onwards, you lose more and more. It doesn't make sense to swap SBJUL18 with SBOCT22.

Firstly what a great job done by hwckhs! If I understand correctly, you can only compare with what you have on hand currently. So based on SBJUL18, you can only compare till it matures in JUN28.

ah, sorry I didn't see the horizontal axis (timeline) ends at the earlier issue. so yep it only compares when there's both holdings at the same time. thanks!

 

[hwckhs]

Great job. Thanks for the effort. Save us a lot of time.

Is first year adjusted as well ?

Yes, if any of the earlier interest rate (eg. first year) is higher than a later one, then it will be lowered to maintain "step up" coupons, per SSB technical specification.

Backtested against last month's ?

Yes, the backtest result is at the top of the Past SSB Projections page (look for SBOCT22). Currently this page shows only backtest results because this website just went live this month. From next month onwards, whenever a new SSB issue is announced, the "current projection" will be compared with the newly announced ssb to compute its accuracy, and then moved to the top of "past projections" page, and a new projection will start.

 

[luvpraline]

Thank you. Yes, we can only compare what's available. You answered better than I would have.


Actually, I don't intend to give advice through the website. The charts are supposed to be self-explanatory and users are to make their own decisions. However, I added some guidance below the charts to help ppl interpret them. Perhaps spend some time to read them?

If you try the page with various existing SSB, you will see that the charts can be in various shapes. You would focus on the Cumulative Profit/Loss chart. The result it shows can be broadly categorized into:

1. outright good (strongly positive across all coming year)
2. outright bad (strongly negative across all coming year)
3. weak (small P&L) or mixed (profit in some years, but loss in others, depending on your holding period)

Using SBJUL18 and $10k as an example: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBJUL18/10000 , I personally would not swap because:

• Up until Jul 2023, the profit only gets as high as $4, but if you consider the cost of swapping ($2 to redeem, another $2 to apply), then there is no profit at all.
• From Aug 2023 onwards, you lose more and more. It doesn't make sense to swap SBJUL18 with SBOCT22.

I find the explanation you've given under the charts very useful. To confirm my understanding, if the intention is to hold the new SSB to the longest term possible, is it correct to check the Cumulative Profit/Loss for a quick answer?

I understand that it wouldn't take into account the remaining years after the existing SSB has reached full tenure.

 

[sohguanh]

Yes, if any of the earlier interest rate (eg. first year) is higher than a later one, then it will be lowered to maintain "step up" coupons, per SSB technical specification.


Yes, the backtest result is at the top of the Past SSB Projections page (look for SBOCT22). Currently this page shows only backtest results because this website just went live this month. From next month onwards, whenever a new SSB issue is announced, the "current projection" will be compared with the newly announced ssb to compute its accuracy, and then moved to the top of "past projections" page, and a new projection will start.

Currently the new one is fixed e.g If You Swap Existing SSB (SBJUN22) with New One (SBOCT22)
Is it possible the New One is also parameter driven like a picklist given for us to choose Existing SSB? That is both parameters can be chosen? I.e compare SBJUN22 with SBAUG22 for e.g ?

 

[rachdanon]

Cannot look at ssb allocation in silo.

other competing investment vehicle will impact demand too

So what's the likely allocation this month? Am thinking whether need to transfer funds for spouse also to bid, or just ownself bid, save the trouble. $20k quite easily?

 

[sohguanh]

So what's the likely allocation this month? Am thinking whether need to transfer funds for spouse also to bid, or just ownself bid, save the trouble. $20k quite easily?

This month not many ppl applying as all the 10 year rates is inferior to last month. Next month would be different more ppl will apply so may not get fully allocated. So my game plan is this month I also apply but with a smaller amount as usual. Need to preserve capital for next month Oct SSB, 12 month T-bill

 

[vsvs24]

This month not many ppl applying as all the 10 year rates is inferior to last month. Next month would be different more ppl will apply so may not get fully allocated. So my game plan is this month I also apply but with a smaller amount as usual. Need to preserve capital for next month Oct SSB, 12 month T-bill

Don't even bother to apply this month. You apply very soon will redeem. Waste money on the fees.

 

[sohguanh]

Don't even bother to apply this month. You apply very soon will redeem. Waste money on the fees.

Why? What if next month too hot oversubscribed ? So this month put a bit is just in case next month cannot get full allocation? Logical?

 

[iMac]

Why? What if next month too hot oversubscribed ? So this month put a bit is just in case next month cannot get full allocation? Logical?

Aiya...if this round cannot get...just roll the money to next round....

 

[sohguanh]

Aiya...if this round cannot get...just roll the money to next round....

I think the SSB rates for next month will be much much better based on just concluded T-bill. This month SSB already announced earlier this month so don't think much takers so you put small amount sure can get. Next month story quite different very "hot" with SSB and 12 months T-bill and the existing 6 months T-bill all in a month.

 

[TehSi99]

This month not many ppl applying as all the 10 year rates is inferior to last month. Next month would be different more ppl will apply so may not get fully allocated. So my game plan is this month I also apply but with a smaller amount as usual. Need to preserve capital for next month Oct SSB, 12 month T-bill

I understand your reasoning,.

But if Nov month SSB is good, then I believe the allocated amount could be less than Oct, even if you subscribe more for Nov SSB. Just my guess.

 

[sohguanh]

I understand your reasoning,.

But if Nov month SSB is good, then I believe the allocated amount could be less than Oct, even if you subscribe more for Nov SSB. Just my guess.

That is why every investors have their own game plan. I am just sharing mine. Oct is a "hot" month to watch. SSB, 12 month T-bill, 6 month T-bill and maybe bank FD also up the game no one knows. Now is really scared monies not enough.

 

[vsvs24]

That is why every investors have their own game plan. I am just sharing mine. Oct is a "hot" month to watch. SSB, 12 month T-bill, 6 month T-bill and maybe bank FD also up the game no one knows. Now is really scared monies not enough.

Scared monies not enough. That's why.

I use to advocate buying SSB. But this month's SSB is really not attractive at all. I would rather use the money for the next 6 mths tbill or subsequent issues of SSB.

Unless you have given up on RHB altogether, can put in RHB in the mth you are joining too.

 

[reddevil0728]

So what's the likely allocation this month? Am thinking whether need to transfer funds for spouse also to bid, or just ownself bid, save the trouble. $20k quite easily?

No crystal ball. Ur guess as good as mine. Just apply on the last day at most lose one day of interest for the unallocated

I think the SSB rates for next month will be much much better based on just concluded T-bill. This month SSB already announced earlier this month so don't think much takers so you put small amount sure can get. Next month story quite different very "hot" with SSB and 12 months T-bill and the existing 6 months T-bill all in a month.

No need to think one. Can just look at the average 10y yield to date. 6m Tbill not a good indication, since ssb is based on 10y

 

[hwckhs]

I find the explanation you've given under the charts very useful. To confirm my understanding, if the intention is to hold the new SSB to the longest term possible, is it correct to check the Cumulative Profit/Loss for a quick answer?

Yes. Basically, you need to be comfortable with the projected profit. For me, personally, even for long term holding, I would prefer the Cumulative Profit/Loss to be positive all the time. If there's a possibility of a loss during a specific period, then that limits my freedom to redeem the SSB early. That's just me. You may have other considerations.

 

[hwckhs]

Currently the new one is fixed e.g If You Swap Existing SSB (SBJUN22) with New One (SBOCT22)
Is it possible the New One is also parameter driven like a picklist given for us to choose Existing SSB? That is both parameters can be chosen? I.e compare SBJUN22 with SBAUG22 for e.g ?

The Swap SSB feature is intended for ppl who wants to consider swapping SSB. Obviously, we can't apply for an old SSB issue (eg. SBAUG22), so it will not fit into the Swap SSB page. If you just want to compare the interest payouts of different SSB issues, then I suggest using the SSB Calculator.

Since we are talking about the "New One (SBOCT22)", I just want to let you know that, the result page, eg. http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBOCT21/10000 will always compare with the latest SSB. This month, it will compare with SBOCT22, but next month it will compare with SBNOV22 instead. If you have some existing SSB that you want to "monitor", you can bookmark the result page and re-visit from time to time. The result will not become outdated.

 

[sohguanh]

The Swap SSB feature is intended for ppl who wants to consider swapping SSB. Obviously, we can't apply for an old SSB issue (eg. SBAUG22), so it will not fit into the Swap SSB page. If you just want to compare the interest payouts of different SSB issues, then I suggest using the SSB Calculator.

Since we are talking about the "New One (SBOCT22)", I just want to let you know that, the result page, eg. http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBOCT21/10000 will always compare with the latest SSB. This month, it will compare with SBOCT22, but next month it will compare with SBNOV22 instead. If you have some existing SSB that you want to "monitor", you can bookmark the result page and re-visit from time to time. The result will not become outdated.

I am just suggesting more dynamic parameters but since you own and build the site you have final say on new feature implementation. I am full-time software developer for many years so I get your reply.

 

[hwckhs]

I am just suggesting more dynamic parameters but since you own and build the site you have final say on new feature implementation. I am full-time software developer for many years so I get your reply.

Nice to meet another developer. I was a full-time dev previously, but has since moved to another area in IT.

 

[sohguanh]

Nice to meet another developer. I was a full-time dev previously, but has since moved to another area in IT.

I see. All the best. I try project mgmt not my cup of tea so developer for 24 years and counting as long as the pay I happy can liao

 

[happycanliao]

I see. All the best. I try project mgmt not my cup of tea so developer for 24 years and counting as long as the pay I happy can liao

Yes, happy can liao