Some random facts about 三国

OngHuatHuat

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there is no long term without northern campaign.

a hungry man ask u to give him some food. u tell him 3mths later u will make big money and give him sharksfin soup, but he'll already be long dead by then.

jiangwei lost his 9th campaign in 256AD, retreat to east of hanzhong, 6yrs later shu kena conquered.

ZGL and his followers conducted northern campaign consistently with calculated loss, shu sustained for 30yrs.

Our arguments will be a never ending loop. You cannot convince me, I also cannot convince you.

Why I said 诸葛亮北伐 not good for 蜀:
1. Directly weaken 蜀economy. Too many soldiers, too little workforce. Army to common people ratio = 1 : 7 which is insanely high.

2. Huge tax incurred to sustain large army which directly hurts the country economy.

3. Indirectly lead to the rise of 司马family which is a huge threat to 蜀

4. Focus too much on 北伐. Din put in enough effort to seek second generation leader.

5. Not enough to effort to put aside some power to nurture 刘禅. If he always stay in 成都,gave some power to 刘禅 and taught him properly, he won't be weak. Basically he has too much control over national affairs.

6. Din take good care of his health even though he knows he is so important to 蜀。this is one of the important reasons why 蜀fail.
 

OngHuatHuat

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The people doesn't want to go into Shu cos culturally slightly different from the central plain. The weather and the geographic also very different.

Not only that many find it difficult to uproot especially when they are not in the war zone.

Farmers on wu and wei to uproot to shu a place of uncertain will be difficult as they are mostly stable in their homeland. No point risking to go to a new state where we will not know if war will wipe it off.

Qin situation is different. They already have existed for many years and that the farmers found it more incentive to go qin as they could profit more

Sent from Kanto using GAGT

You are right about the attractiveness part, 中原is always more attractive than other parts of the country.
Part of the reasons why 蜀國fail is coz of not enough effort to groom local talent too. You look at 蜀国 generals when it is close to their extinction, they are son of previous generals. This shows how shallow is their talent pool. It is either they din put in effort to groom local talent or simply coz there isn't enough local talent due to small population size
 

barbaricboon

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Aiya, it is quite obvious that ZGL is fighting a losing war and ZGL noes that cos time is not on his side.

If he stay put in Shu and build up internally, it is only able to maintain the 3 kingdom stalemate.(dont forget Wei also storing resources too) Wei resources is too large, and they can afford to wait for internal conflict to occur with shu and Wu.

I think ZGL noes that, thats why he plan for the expedition to force the stalemate to be broken within his lifetime where he can still do something. It is a "bo bian" situation.

Ultimately when 3 kingdoms were form, It is all about the waiting game, see whos internal system break 1st.
 

yummie

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Our arguments will be a never ending loop. You cannot convince me, I also cannot convince you.

Why I said 诸葛亮北伐 not good for 蜀:
1. Directly weaken 蜀economy. Too many soldiers, too little workforce. Army to common people ratio = 1 : 7 which is insanely high.

2. Huge tax incurred to sustain large army which directly hurts the country economy.

3. Indirectly lead to the rise of 司马family which is a huge threat to 蜀

4. Focus too much on 北伐. Din put in enough effort to seek second generation leader.

5. Not enough to effort to put aside some power to nurture 刘禅. If he always stay in 成都,gave some power to 刘禅 and taught him properly, he won't be weak. Basically he has too much control over national affairs.

6. Din take good care of his health even though he knows he is so important to 蜀。this is one of the important reasons why 蜀fail.
Becos we dont understand the past n they dont know the future. Like if u tell ZGL there is such thing as planes n nuclear bomb, he will tell u "siao"!!!!

Sent from christmas island using GAGT
 

OngHuatHuat

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Becos we dont understand the past n they dont know the future. Like if u tell ZGL there is such thing as planes n nuclear bomb, he will tell u "siao"!!!!

Sent from christmas island using GAGT

Haha, all right.

But if you view my points from singapore perspective right after independence, lee kuan yew were doing the exact opposite. Just a random thought of mine. :)
 

tiredman

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Actually I more Intersted in Shang yang story

Too bad he kena killed Ccb help Peolle from poor become rich n powerful yet Jena this fate Ccb
 

Soulhacker

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Our arguments will be a never ending loop. You cannot convince me, I also cannot convince you.

Why I said 诸葛亮北伐 not good for 蜀:
1. Directly weaken 蜀economy. Too many soldiers, too little workforce. Army to common people ratio = 1 : 7 which is insanely high.

From some of the leeserach books (not novel hor, but those serious boring kind that only talk numbers) that moi read, Shu army in that era ish the smallest but yet the most professionally trained and best equipped. Read it ish something like Zhuge Liang don't follow other two countries just draft farmers into army one. He basically divide the army into two part, one ish professional regulars (interesting to note that most are FTs from the minority tribes near Shu, they are not peasant farmers type) and another ish the standard expandable drafted AT peasant farmers. So when he start his campaign, most of the soldiers activated are actually the regulars and does not affected economy one. The drafted farmers kind are use for local defense and\or support nia like task to transport supplies to frontline. When no war, these professional regulars also not idling jiak liao bee but are made to farm their own makan so not to strain the country resources to feed them.

This ish quite different and in fact the opposite of the composition of others arm forces that time, which the elite army ish usually the smaller force, main force are the expandable drafted farmer peasants. This ish especially true for Wei, but Wei ish big, they can afford to draft more peasants without affecting the country compare to the other two.

Wu on the other hand also use drafted farmer mainly but their system ish actually a bit similar to feudalism. It work something like the elite and generals have and maintain their own armies, each elite\general army ish compose of a small elite forces (or call Son Brother army, mainly make up by the relatives of the elite\general) but the main force are of cause still drafted from peasants and slaves. So when needed, the elite and generals will draft the peasants in their lands, activate their son brother troops too and send their combined armies to serve and follow the Wu King to war. When war finish the peasants\slaves return back to the land of those elite and generals to continue working for GDP, so only the small elite force of Son brother army need to be maintain by the elite\general to jiak liao bee when no war . So like Shu it don't really drain the country resources as much. But the problem with this ish those elite\general have greater power so the Wu King need to be strong too to be able to control and content them, since most of them got their own personal army, and this personal army ish actually pass from one generation of the elite\general to the next, so they tend to be more royal to their elite\general master than to Wu King.

So even the 3 kingdoms are in the same era and all draft farming peasants into army, but the scale and nature of their army ish actually got differences one and impact the country manpower in different way too. So ish not say Shu so small anyhow activate 100K troops will drain resources so simple lah.

2. Huge tax incurred to sustain large army which directly hurts the country economy.

Sure or not, most of the leesearch kind of books that moi read all stated Shu has the least tax on peasant kia among the 3, Wu ish the one that has the heaviest tax. In fact ZGL spent a lot of effort increase the productivity and wealth of the peasants instead than to simply raise tax to make peasants pay more. So when the peasant income improved and get wealthier, even without raising tax the tax revenue also increase naturally one since peasant earn more mean can pay more in proportion but without being over stress by heavy tax. Many researchers and scholars nowadays already overturning the old theory of how ZGL war campaign ish the cause of Shu decline by draining the country resource. If ZGL only know how to keep rising GST to help army, then please lah, there won't be so many historians and reseachers praise him as one of the best prime ministar in the ancient history of AT and why till this modern dazes still many true blue shi chuang people loving ZGL dip dip.

3. Indirectly lead to the rise of 司马family which is a huge threat to 蜀

Ish just half true lah, another half true ish Cao Cao own gene pool ish beh kan. Cao Pi ish the one who give a lot of power to Sima Yi, at this time ZGL still haven't a threat yet as he busy rebuilding Shu after Liu Bei defeat and focus on restoring peace to the south first. And the few at least a bit eh kan the earlier Cao ruler all up lorry at young age and pass power to their still si very young sons, then the actual control ish under some beh kan Cao relatives. This ish main reason why they eventually tio leeplaced by the more scheming Sima family. :(

And Sima clan ish also not some nobody, their background ish very elite, wealthy and influential one, this ish also part of the reason why Cao Cao want to recruit the Sima clan in even he don't trust sima yi as their power on the ground ish cannot be ignore. So sima yi ish not someone that any ruler not happy can simply order to pull outside to roll head shua, if that happen without good reason sure cause a lot of local riots and rebellions later. That why even without ZGL, it ish just matter of time such elite family will rise to leeplace Cao clan if there ish no strong ruler like Cao Cao to control them.


4. Focus too much on 北伐. Din put in enough effort to seek second generation leader.

Again why you story so different from those research books that moi read? ZGL actually leave behind quite a number of strong and capable 2nd generation leaders and they did run Shu quite well, But human count cannot win heaven count. Those 2nd generation leaders though young but didn't live too long (recall most die early and some assassinated) that why after they up lorry one by one around a decade later there ish not enough time to groom the next generation leadership and power fall into beh kan type then Shu began to decline, and noted that this decline ish not immediately after ZGL up lorry, but more than a decade later. Once decline ish such a way the decline ish very fast and furious one. :( Actually even with the decline, the legacy and resources left behind by ZGL still allow Jiang Wei to start his numerous war campaign.

5. Not enough to effort to put aside some power to nurture 刘禅. If he always stay in 成都,gave some power to 刘禅 and taught him properly, he won't be weak. Basically he has too much control over national affairs.

Also not true, base on many scholar finding, it ish not ZGL don't want or prevent LC to take control, it was LC who entrust ZGL completely with absolute power. Beside if the leader ish weak, no matter how much power you give will still be weak, actually make matter worst if weak leader start abuse power. LC best trait as emperor ish that he ish willing in entrust power to people. So when those are good, like ZGL and the other successors, the result ish good. But this ish also his biggest weakness, once he entrust power to wrong people, we see how $hit happen. :(

6. Din take good care of his health even though he knows he is so important to 蜀。this is one of the important reasons why 蜀fail.

This ish ancient AT time in 200+BC. Life expectancy ish not higher in the first place. Beside he ish only a scholar not warrior with strong body, up lorry at 54 actually not too young also mah. And in case you don't know, Shu only fall almost 30 years later after ZGL up lorry. So how long you want him to stay alive? :(
 
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ponpokku

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Our arguments will be a never ending loop. You cannot convince me, I also cannot convince you.

Why I said 诸葛亮北伐 not good for 蜀:
1. Directly weaken 蜀economy. Too many soldiers, too little workforce. Army to common people ratio = 1 : 7 which is insanely high.

2. Huge tax incurred to sustain large army which directly hurts the country economy.

3. Indirectly lead to the rise of 司马family which is a huge threat to 蜀

4. Focus too much on 北伐. Din put in enough effort to seek second generation leader.

5. Not enough to effort to put aside some power to nurture 刘禅. If he always stay in 成都,gave some power to 刘禅 and taught him properly, he won't be weak. Basically he has too much control over national affairs.

6. Din take good care of his health even though he knows he is so important to 蜀。this is one of the important reasons why 蜀fail.

1, nope, about 1 to 10. shu has about 1mil pop and 100k soldiers max. this is evident when ZGL go campaign he usually brings 50k to attack liangzhou and the other 50k spread around hanzhong and other areas to guard against wei army in shangyong en route his backside. according to shu records they have 270-280k households ard ah dou and jiangwei era and 940k pop.

后主遣人别敕姜维,又遣尚书郎李虎送士民簿于艾,凡有户二十八万,口九十四万,吏四万人,甲士十万二千。

for the 940k pop, it is possible they are only counting the taxable pop, aka adult males. not women and kids. there's avg 3-4 males in a household, which is very possible with ancient clan community.

2, nope, most info tells u shu economy prospered under ZGL's era, and no evident of high taxes. even if the taxes increased, the increase in economic volume countered it as the commoners still gets a bigger share than previously. shu only faced food shortages towards the last few yrs of ah dou's rule. thats decades after ZGL's death. taxation in wu and shu were benchmarked against wei, becos they wanna attract ppl to them instead of serving wei. so their taxes werent higher than wei.

3, the sima family rise to power becos caopi ish very good frens with sima yi. never heed caocao's warning about sima yi.

4, again, his successors jiang wan and feiji are rather capable. with jiangwei managing the military. only after jiangwan and feiji died, then jiangwei cannot run the show on his own. northern campaigns ish a necessary evil to break the wei encirclement.

5, that is mostly influenced by the novel. ah dou himself is not that bad a ruler. from the records of shu, he didnt made any major mistakes, and he has not much bad personal habits or indulgence, except being close to huanghao after jiangwan and feiji died. but he's not all listening to huanghao oso.

6, that ish uncontrollable at that time liao. avg life expectancy ish not that high at that era too.
 
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ponpokku

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Aiya, it is quite obvious that ZGL is fighting a losing war and ZGL noes that cos time is not on his side.

If he stay put in Shu and build up internally, it is only able to maintain the 3 kingdom stalemate.(dont forget Wei also storing resources too) Wei resources is too large, and they can afford to wait for internal conflict to occur with shu and Wu.

I think ZGL noes that, thats why he plan for the expedition to force the stalemate to be broken within his lifetime where he can still do something. It is a "bo bian" situation.

Ultimately when 3 kingdoms were form, It is all about the waiting game, see whos internal system break 1st.

yep, he just trying to extend the inevitable by disturbing wei's building up on shu.
 

OngHuatHuat

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1, nope, about 1 to 10. shu has about 1mil pop and 100k soldiers max. this is evident when ZGL go campaign he usually brings 50k to attack liangzhou and the other 50k spread around hanzhong and other areas to guard against wei army in shangyong en route his backside. according to shu records they have 270-280k households ard ah dou and jiangwei era and 940k pop.



for the 940k pop, it is possible they are only counting the taxable pop, aka adult males. not women and kids. there's avg 3-4 males in a household, which is very possible with ancient clan community.

2, nope, most info tells u shu economy prospered under ZGL's era, and no evident of high taxes. even if the taxes increased, the increase in economic volume countered it as the commoners still gets a bigger share than previously. shu only faced food shortages towards the last few yrs of ah dou's rule. thats decades after ZGL's death. taxation in wu and shu were benchmarked against wei, becos they wanna attract ppl to them instead of serving wei. so their taxes werent higher than wei.

3, the sima family rise to power becos caopi ish very good frens with sima yi. never heed caocao's warning about sima yi.

4, again, his successors jiang wan and feiji are rather capable. with jiangwei managing the military. only after jiangwan and feiji died, then jiangwei cannot run the show on his own. northern campaigns ish a necessary evil to break the wei encirclement.

5, that is mostly influenced by the novel. ah dou himself is not that bad a ruler. from the records of shu, he didnt made any major mistakes, and he has not much bad personal habits or indulgence, except being close to huanghao after jiangwan and feiji died. but he's not all listening to huanghao oso.

6, that ish uncontrollable at that time liao. avg life expectancy ish not that high at that era too.

You over simplifying the rise of 司马family already.
If not because of 诸葛亮, they won't rise up as fast. 魏kind of depend on him to reject 诸葛亮。

1:7 is the ratio of soldier : non soldier, they always said 诸葛亮lead 200000 people, I assume the actual number to be smaller at around 100 k to 150 k. So few working adult and so large army, how to sustain without a huge military spending? Where they get all this money and soldier? It is quite obvious right?

Regarding the grooming part, I really feel it was unfair for 刘禅since 诸葛亮almost taken all the duties and power during his ruling in 蜀.
 

ponpokku

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You over simplifying the rise of 司马family already.
If not because of 诸葛亮, they won't rise up as fast. 魏kind of depend on him to reject 诸葛亮。

1:7 is the ratio of soldier : non soldier, they always said 诸葛亮lead 200000 people, I assume the actual number to be smaller at around 100 k to 150 k. So few working adult and so large army, how to sustain without a huge military spending? Where they get all this money and soldier? It is quite obvious right?

Regarding the grooming part, I really feel it was unfair for 刘禅since 诸葛亮almost taken all the duties and power during his ruling in 蜀.

plz, sima family became powerful AFTER caopi ascend the throne. which is 220 AD. the first ZGL northern campaign was 228AD, by then caopi already dead and his son ish on the throne, sima family already very powerful. sima yi himself became powerful towards the end of caocao's reign. he was already chief commander for caocao by 219AD. by the time caopi passed away in 226AD, sima yi was already 大将军. thats 2yrs b4 ZGL northern campaign.

plz read their biblo first b4 coming to conclusions.

as for the soldiers to peasant pop, from ur deduction it shows that u have no idea at all how the ancient chinese residential record was structured. from eastern han dynasty to 3 kingdoms era (in fact up to ming dynasty with some variations), the population of any 'state/province' consist of 3 primary parts, 民户, 军户, 吏户 (in ming daynasty there were some specific skilled labourers households too), these were like caste system, father passed to son, calculated individually. so ur ratio itself is wrong. 100k soldiers = 100k soldier households on top of 280k peasant households. in addition of 40k civil servant households, the total households of shu was about 280+100+40 = ~420k, total number of ppl would be ard 1.65 mil to 2.1 mil, if u count one household with either 4 or 5 persons. the ratio of soldiers to peasants would be ard 1:9, the ratio of soldiers to non-soldiers (including the families of the soldiers and civil servants) would be much lower, ard 1:15.

there was no record of shu having more than 120k soldiers. dunno where ur 200k numbers came from. the biblo of ZGL in sanguo zhi clearly state that he led 100k during the first northern campaign, and much lesser during subsequent campaigns. these numbers were usually bloated so the actual numbers would be smaller.

u gotta be familiar with how chinese population records was structured in ancient times.
 
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OngHuatHuat

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plz, sima family became powerful AFTER caopi ascend the throne. which is 220 AD. the first ZGL northern campaign was 228AD, by then caopi already dead and his son ish on the throne, sima family already very powerful. sima yi himself became powerful towards the end of caocao's reign. he was already chief commander for caocao by 219AD. by the time caopi passed away in 226AD, sima yi was already 大将军. thats 2yrs b4 ZGL northern campaign.

plz read their biblo first b4 coming to conclusions.

as for the soldiers to peasant pop, from ur deduction it shows that u have no idea at all how the ancient chinese residential record was structured. from eastern han dynasty to 3 kingdoms era (in fact up to ming dynasty with some variations), the population of any 'state/province' consist of 3 primary parts, 民户, 军户, 吏户 (in ming daynasty there were some specific skilled labourers households too), these were like caste system, father passed to son, calculated individually. so ur ratio itself is wrong. 100k soldiers = 100k soldier households on top of 280k peasant households. in addition of 40k civil servant households, the total households of shu was about 280+100+40 = ~420k, total number of ppl would be ard 1.65 mil to 2.1 mil, if u count one household with either 4 or 5 persons. the ratio of soldiers to peasants would be ard 1:9, the ratio of soldiers to non-soldiers (including the families of the soldiers and civil servants) would be much lower, ard 1:15.

there was no record of shu having more than 120k soldiers. dunno where ur 200k numbers came from. the biblo of ZGL in sanguo zhi clearly state that he led 100k during the first northern campaign, and much lesser during subsequent campaigns. these numbers were usually bloated so the actual numbers would be smaller.

u gotta be familiar with how chinese population records was structured in ancient times.

You forgot to include there was a period of time 司马懿was down.

The numbers that you put, are all just your ownself say one, and very far from what I read.
1. Shu doesn't have 2 million population. At 蜀gg time,


《蜀记》载“又遣尚书郎李虎送士民簿,领户二十八万,男女口九十四万,带甲将士十万二千,吏四万人”
Zhugeliang time the soldier number is higher.

2. Your that structure will only work if there isn't frequent war. Ie soldier cna contribute to grow economy. But the frequency of war during 诸葛亮time is way too frequent. And their 北伐军are their main army and now you said they were reserve?

I just said they claimed to be 200k, but actual number should be around 100 to 150 k army? But you read it as 200k 北伐军.
 

cet87

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1, nope, about 1 to 10. shu has about 1mil pop and 100k soldiers max. this is evident when ZGL go campaign he usually brings 50k to attack liangzhou and the other 50k spread around hanzhong and other areas to guard against wei army in shangyong en route his backside. according to shu records they have 270-280k households ard ah dou and jiangwei era and 940k pop.



for the 940k pop, it is possible they are only counting the taxable pop, aka adult males. not women and kids. there's avg 3-4 males in a household, which is very possible with ancient clan community.

2, nope, most info tells u shu economy prospered under ZGL's era, and no evident of high taxes. even if the taxes increased, the increase in economic volume countered it as the commoners still gets a bigger share than previously. shu only faced food shortages towards the last few yrs of ah dou's rule. thats decades after ZGL's death. taxation in wu and shu were benchmarked against wei, becos they wanna attract ppl to them instead of serving wei. so their taxes werent higher than wei.

3, the sima family rise to power becos caopi ish very good frens with sima yi. never heed caocao's warning about sima yi.

4, again, his successors jiang wan and feiji are rather capable. with jiangwei managing the military. only after jiangwan and feiji died, then jiangwei cannot run the show on his own. northern campaigns ish a necessary evil to break the wei encirclement.

5, that is mostly influenced by the novel. ah dou himself is not that bad a ruler. from the records of shu, he didnt made any major mistakes, and he has not much bad personal habits or indulgence, except being close to huanghao after jiangwan and feiji died. but he's not all listening to huanghao oso.

6, that ish uncontrollable at that time liao. avg life expectancy ish not that high at that era too.

But ah dou say he 乐不思蜀 le. Just want to have fun only.
 

ponpokku

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You forgot to include there was a period of time 司马懿was down.

The numbers that you put, are all just your ownself say one, and very far from what I read.
1. Shu doesn't have 2 million population. At 蜀gg time,


《蜀记》载“又遣尚书郎李虎送士民簿,领户二十八万,男女口九十四万,带甲将士十万二千,吏四万人”
Zhugeliang time the soldier number is higher.

2. Your that structure will only work if there isn't frequent war. Ie soldier cna contribute to grow economy. But the frequency of war during 诸葛亮time is way too frequent. And their 北伐军are their main army and now you said they were reserve?

I just said they claimed to be 200k, but actual number should be around 100 to 150 k army? But you read it as 200k 北伐军.

again no.

1, 280k households with 940k ppl? lol 3.5ppl per household? u think they got family planning then? 940k ish having some omission, like i said, prolly not counting women and children.

2, ZGL time didnt have more than this. the most is on par. becos the first northern campaign he lost almost 1/2 his troops. in fact the records of shu ard ZGL time was quoted at ard 200k households.

《通典》卷7《食货·历代盛衰产门·丁中》:“三国鼎立,战争不息。刘备章武元年,有户二十万,男女口九十万。及平蜀,得户二十八万,口九十四万,带甲将士十万二千,吏四万

so look, beginning of liubei's reign as emperor (221AD), shu has 200k households, 900k ppl (male and female). at the end of shu, 280k household, a 40% increase in households, but only 940k ppl? like 5% increase in pop? a logical number would be around 1.3 - 1.4mil.

3, nope, the 200k claimed was from ah dou's imperial edict. this is the same thing as caocao claiming 800k at redcliff thou he had only 200+k to 300k in actual numbers. almost 2x-3x bloated cos it was a propaganda to psycho the enemy.

ZGL max ish ard 100k and after he lost the first campaign he never managed to get back to that number until jiangwei's era.

b4 losing jingzhou shu might have 300+ househoulds and 150k soldiers, but after jingzhou and campaign against wu they no longer had that number.

and as i said, the army households ish different entity from the peasants. their family members ish not counted together with the peasants.

according to <中國古代兵制>:

三國時期兵役制度主要是世兵制。所謂世兵制,是由一部份人戶專服兵役、世代為兵,以保證地主階級政治需要的一種兵役制度。世兵制形成和確立於三國時期。......統治者為了獲得穩定的後備兵員,強迫軍戶世代為兵,父死子代,兄終弟及。

this oso clear the discrepancy of the pop count of 3 kingdoms and western jin. most 3 kingdoms discussion on pop didnt count the army households as independent, and thats why they got the est pop size towards the end of 3 kingdoms era (263 to 280 AD) to be ard 6.6-7.7 mil, but cannot reconcile with the pop size of early western jin, just several yrs later, to be 16 mil. how to double ur pop within 10+ yrs?

western jin 太康元年 (280AD) census, 2459840 households, 16163863 pop. the standard household has 6-7 persons avg. not the 3.5 persons in shu. which is why there is something missing in the shu records.

separating out the army households will give an est. 3 kingdoms pop size of ard 11-12mil, and fit the growth to 16mil during the general census in 280AD.
 
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OngHuatHuat

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again no.

1, 280k households with 940k ppl? lol 3.5ppl per household? u think they got family planning then? 940k ish having some omission, like i said, prolly not counting women and children.

2, ZGL time didnt have more than this. the most is on par. becos the first northern campaign he lost almost 1/2 his troops. in fact the records of shu ard ZGL time was quoted at ard 200k households.



so look, beginning of liubei's reign as emperor (221AD), shu has 200k households, 900k ppl (male and female). at the end of shu, 280k household, a 40% increase in households, but only 940k ppl? like 5% increase in pop? a logical number would be around 1.3 - 1.4mil.

3, nope, the 200k claimed was from ah dou's imperial edict. this is the same thing as caocao claiming 800k at redcliff thou he had only 200+k to 300k in actual numbers. almost 2x-3x bloated cos it was a propaganda to psycho the enemy.

ZGL max ish ard 100k and after he lost the first campaign he never managed to get back to that number until jiangwei's era.

b4 losing jingzhou shu might have 300+ househoulds and 150k soldiers, but after jingzhou and campaign against wu they no longer had that number.

and as i said, the army households ish different entity from the peasants. their family members ish not counted together with the peasants.

according to <中國古代兵制>:



this oso clear the discrepancy of the pop count of 3 kingdoms and western jin. most 3 kingdoms discussion on pop didnt count the army households as independent, and thats why they got the est pop size towards the end of 3 kingdoms era (263 to 280 AD) to be ard 6.6-7.7 mil, but cannot reconcile with the pop size of early western jin, just several yrs later, to be 16 mil. how to double ur pop within 10+ yrs?

western jin 太康元年 (280AD) census, 2459840 households, 16163863 pop. the standard household has 6-7 persons avg. not the 3.5 persons in shu. which is why there is something missing in the shu records.

separating out the army households will give an est. 3 kingdoms pop size of ard 11-12mil, and fit the growth to 16mil during the general census in 280AD.

You forgot a lot of people died during the battle.
And there are kids and elderly who cannot work.

Anyway, I am those kind of prefer build army, build base, make ownself strong then 一战而求全功。
 

ponpokku

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You forgot a lot of people died during the battle.
And there are kids and elderly who cannot work.

Anyway, I am those kind of prefer build army, build base, make ownself strong then 一战而求全功。

plz, shu surrendered and resistance was minimal. even jiangwei losses over the yrs add up oso never reach 50k, how u explain the missing of 500k population?

the most crucial part is how u reconcile 7mil pop growth to 16mil within 17 yrs (263-280 AD)? whats more, the census in 282AD recorded 22mil pop? the 282AD census can be seen as refugees and vagrants returning to their hometowns after jin unified china. but the 7mil jump to 16mil ish unexplanable, the only reasonable argument is that the records are not all accurate.

and not to miss out one more important point, from ZGL to jiangwei, they all practised 屯兵, ie resettlement of colonist to various parts of shu to clear land and expand agriculture. these ppl, according to 3 kingdoms records are not counted under the national registry, but had individual records. their numbers are not reflected in the 280k households and 940k pop.

single face-off is more advantage to shu than to wei. which is why sima yi tried his best to avoid while ZGL and jiangwei tried to push for it.
 
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