STI ETF

[pylpoh]

i sold my es3, if it continues to go up also good; cos i also have d05 . i sold my es3 mainly is because i need $ for my business, and i also moved some fund to iwda. no wrong no right one la, different people different choice of allocation.

 

[kurt_629]

I also still holding my 13k g3b and 20k sti lol

i'm also holding, 60k worth

intend to sell half when it hit 3.55

 

[af7680]

I also sold today es3 which was bought at high price . Earned dividend so far and also a bit of capital appreciation. Will enter again when lower price

 

[churnmaster]

Not sure what you are trying to say here, but if you are like me, a vast proportion of your wealth should already be denominated in SGD, my primary residence + CPF + bond component of my portfolio are all denominated in SGD, there is no way to not be overweight SGD denominated assets unless I migrate to other countries.

No idea whats going to happen short term but long term I sure as heck wont want to further overweight SGD assets by investing in 3 local banks.

Btw I'm seeing a lot of short term trading on this thread, including yours. I've always thought that the whole point of passive index investing is to not time the market, these indices dun typically move much in a year, is there really a point in timing these 5-10% moves? Stocks on average (global average, not referring to STI specifically) grow earnings 8% a year, so the global average tends to double every 10 years, does a 5% move really make any difference?

Yes, I'm very much like you with most of my holdings in SGD while also being invested in US, China, UK equities and some commodities. So I do have exposure to other currencies.

Regarding short term trading, well I believe in actively managing my passive index funds. If there's a sharp upmove and the market looks overbought, I will sell some and vice versa if the market gets oversold, I will buy some. I don't aim for buying at the bottom or selling at the top.

 

[yumsang]

i'm also holding, 60k worth

intend to sell half when it hit 3.55

about time to sell but sell liao money put where to get 4-5% return
if dont sell, losing capital gain risk getting higher

 

[d5dude]

Yes, I'm very much like you with most of my holdings in SGD while also being invested in US, China, UK equities and some commodities. So I do have exposure to other currencies.

Regarding short term trading, well I believe in actively managing my passive index funds. If there's a sharp upmove and the market looks overbought, I will sell some and vice versa if the market gets oversold, I will buy some. I don't aim for buying at the bottom or selling at the top.

Great if market timing works for you but I know for sure I wouldnt have been able to 4x my investment in CSPX if I had tried to time the market in the last 10 years. All I use is a mechanical process that automatically rebalance my portfolio twice a year, but TBH it hasnt generated any alpha for me, all its done is reduce some portfolio volatility at the expense of some return.

 

[d5dude]

about time to sell but sell liao money put where to get 4-5% return
if dont sell, losing capital gain risk getting higher

You can always hold cash if you think its going down tomorrow, problem with timing the market is never the selling, its the buying, very few people can consistently time the entry back into the market.

Missing the market's 10 best days in any 1 year cuts your total return by 50%, missing the 20 best days cuts it by 90%, this is why people say time in market > timing the market.

 

[boroangel]

You can always hold cash if you think its going down tomorrow, problem with timing the market is never the selling, its the buying, very few people can consistently time the entry back into the market.

Missing the market's 10 best days in any 1 year cuts your total return by 50%, missing the 20 best days cuts it by 90%, this is why people say time in market > timing the market.

This is so true. Time in the market overall is still better than trying to time.

I sold part of my apple in late 2020 thinking it was all time high and better to take profit , sold shell , LYG, WFC in Q4 but these have all gone up much higher now. My portfolio would have been better if I had kept all these.

sometimes it’s just better to let the winners run rather than to pick out the top.

 

[FlyGuardX]

two years back people were saying US market were better

 

[churnmaster]

Great if market timing works for you but I know for sure I wouldnt have been able to 4x my investment in CSPX if I had tried to time the market in the last 10 years. All I use is a mechanical process that automatically rebalance my portfolio twice a year, but TBH it hasnt generated any alpha for me, all its done is reduce some portfolio volatility at the expense of some return.

See the last 10 yrs have been great for the US stock market aided by corporate tax cuts and easy liquidity courtesy QE. In such a liquidity driven environment, just being invested would ensure great returns. However, that has not been the case for many other markets and for investments in those markets, a bit of market timing can help in reducing a lot of downside risk.

Now, someone may argue that if that's the case then why to even invest in such markets (laggards) which I agree as long as its a laggard.

Btw, as you mentioned portfolio rebalancing and diversification are very important.

 

[stanlawj]

This is so true. Time in the market overall is still better than trying to time.

I sold part of my apple in late 2020 thinking it was all time high and better to take profit , sold shell , LYG, WFC in Q4 but these have all gone up much higher now. My portfolio would have been better if I had kept all these.

sometimes it’s just better to let the winners run rather than to pick out the top.

The topic is STI ETF. Why compare AAPL with STI ETF? They are two different beast.

You can always hold cash if you think its going down tomorrow, problem with timing the market is never the selling, its the buying, very few people can consistently time the entry back into the market.

Missing the market's 10 best days in any 1 year cuts your total return by 50%, missing the 20 best days cuts it by 90%, this is why people say time in market > timing the market.

If any of you failed to time the market, stop giving excuses.( Sorry, remark is not polite)
I successfully exited STI ETF for my family (entry from about 2.6) after the run ended in early 2021, reentered and exit and reentered again in Q3-Q4 2021, and now exit again in early 2022.

All using CPF-OA money of my family.
Total return using my own strategy is slightly less than holding all the way from 2.6, but the benefit is protection of profits from any deep market plunge. Also, out of Singapore stocks (except GLD) prior to 2020, and my CPF-OA was cashed up to participate in any deep market crash for 2020. Protection of profits to avoid deep drawdowns is very important! Don't you also wished to out of stocks prior to Covid crash?

If you refuse to learn, you'll always find excuses not to learn. ( Sorry I sound prideful) I won't deny market timing is difficult, but the benefits outweigh the efforts as the portfolio gets bigger exponentially.

 

[churnmaster]

You can always hold cash if you think its going down tomorrow, problem with timing the market is never the selling, its the buying, very few people can consistently time the entry back into the market.

Missing the market's 10 best days in any 1 year cuts your total return by 50%, missing the 20 best days cuts it by 90%, this is why people say time in market > timing the market.

I have a slightly different view.

Human beings are hardwired to see growth because that's what they see around them in nature and also their own experience as they grow from a kid to an adult. They have a tendency to believe that everything will grow over time and hence its better to buy / acquire it now and see it grow as time passes. Degrowth doesn't come natural to them and hence to sell / let go becomes an extremely emotional experience. You'll mostly come across people asking 'What to buy ' or 'Is it a good time to buy?'. You'll seldom hear anyone asking "Is it time to sell?".

During a secular bull phase majority of investors see above average returns (unrealized gains) however only a small percentage of them are able to encash as most others fail to sell as they don't have an exit plan till the time the market enters the bear phase.

I don't know how much the portfolio returns would improve if you avoid the 10 worst days in a given year. However, I'm clear avoiding a big drop closer to the peak is more beneficial and important than avoiding a bigger drop 25-30% below the index peak.

 

[boroangel]

The topic is STI ETF. Why compare AAPL with STI ETF? They are two different beast.

If any of you failed to time the market, stop giving excuses.
I successfully exited STI ETF for my family (entry from about 2.6) after the run ended in early 2021, reentered and exit and reentered again in Q3-Q4 2021, and now exit again in early 2022.

All using CPF-OA money of my family.
Total return using my own strategy is slightly less than holding all the way from 2.6, but the benefit is protection of profits from any deep market plunge. Also, out of Singapore stocks (except GLD) prior to 2020, and my CPF-OA was cashed up to participate in any deep market crash for 2020. Protection of profits to avoid deep drawdowns is very important! Don't you also wished to out of stocks prior to Covid crash?

If you refuse to learn, you'll always find excuses not to learn. I won't deny market timing is difficult, but the benefits outweigh the efforts as the portfolio gets bigger exponentially.

Dude, we are just sharing our opinions here on our experiences, and what worked for us and what did not. Not saying that everyone needs to follow the same method. There is no need for you to dismiss what others have done or said. What worked for you might not work for someone else, vice versa.

Ah ok, so u are very good at market timing, congrats on the profits you have made guru.

Maybe you should often post what you are buying and selling all the time so others can learn from you and you are contributing positively to this forum.

 

[stanlawj]

Dude, we are just sharing our opinions here on our experiences, and what worked for us and what did not. Not saying that everyone needs to follow the same method. There is no need for you to dismiss what others have done or said. What worked for you might not work for someone else, vice versa.

Ah ok, so u are very good at market timing, congrats on the profits you have made guru.

Maybe you should often post what you are buying and selling all the time so others can learn from you and you are contributing positively to this forum.

sorry, some of my remarks are not polite. Please accept my apology, the goal is not to disparage anyone.

 

[apriliasiao]

The topic is STI ETF. Why compare AAPL with STI ETF? They are two different beast.

If any of you failed to time the market, stop giving excuses.( Sorry, remark is not polite)
I successfully exited STI ETF for my family (entry from about 2.6) after the run ended in early 2021, reentered and exit and reentered again in Q3-Q4 2021, and now exit again in early 2022.

All using CPF-OA money of my family.
Total return using my own strategy is slightly less than holding all the way from 2.6, but the benefit is protection of profits from any deep market plunge. Also, out of Singapore stocks (except GLD) prior to 2020, and my CPF-OA was cashed up to participate in any deep market crash for 2020. Protection of profits to avoid deep drawdowns is very important! Don't you also wished to out of stocks prior to Covid crash?

If you refuse to learn, you'll always find excuses not to learn. ( Sorry I sound prideful) I won't deny market timing is difficult, but the benefits outweigh the efforts as the portfolio gets bigger exponentially.

wow. **clap hands** let's see how many times u can strike the jackpots.

 

[hotamp]

sorry guys, noob here, side track a bit for STI ETF, the ETF need to pay the yearly mgt fees and expense ratio, so every year the brokerage less off the fees when we sell or they already build into the selling price

 

[d5dude]

See the last 10 yrs have been great for the US stock market aided by corporate tax cuts and easy liquidity courtesy QE. In such a liquidity driven environment, just being invested would ensure great returns. However, that has not been the case for many other markets and for investments in those markets, a bit of market timing can help in reducing a lot of downside risk.

I dun think it has anything to do with liquidity or corp tax cuts because its not just the US stock market that has outperformed the STI, most Asian markets like Japan, Korea and Japan have vastly outperformed the STI in the last decade.

Now, someone may argue that if that's the case then why to even invest in such markets (laggards) which I agree as long as its a laggard.


Btw, as you mentioned portfolio rebalancing and diversification are very important.

Yes I was going to ask why even bother to invest in something if you think it has no real potential to offer great long term returns? This feels more like short term speculation to me, similar to trading meme stocks, commodities, forex, etc, where people are more concerned with price levels on a chart rather than long term fundamentals.

 

[d5dude]

The topic is STI ETF. Why compare AAPL with STI ETF? They are two different beast.

If any of you failed to time the market, stop giving excuses.( Sorry, remark is not polite)
I successfully exited STI ETF for my family (entry from about 2.6) after the run ended in early 2021, reentered and exit and reentered again in Q3-Q4 2021, and now exit again in early 2022.

All using CPF-OA money of my family.
Total return using my own strategy is slightly less than holding all the way from 2.6, but the benefit is protection of profits from any deep market plunge. Also, out of Singapore stocks (except GLD) prior to 2020, and my CPF-OA was cashed up to participate in any deep market crash for 2020. Protection of profits to avoid deep drawdowns is very important! Don't you also wished to out of stocks prior to Covid crash?

If you refuse to learn, you'll always find excuses not to learn. ( Sorry I sound prideful) I won't deny market timing is difficult, but the benefits outweigh the efforts as the portfolio gets bigger exponentially.

My point was that unless you are able to consistently time the exits and entries consistently over a span of 30-40 years you will not outperform the market, drawndowns are pretty much irrelevant unless you are retired or near retirement (due to sequence risk).

 

[d5dude]

I have a slightly different view.

Human beings are hardwired to see growth because that's what they see around them in nature and also their own experience as they grow from a kid to an adult. They have a tendency to believe that everything will grow over time and hence its better to buy / acquire it now and see it grow as time passes. Degrowth doesn't come natural to them and hence to sell / let go becomes an extremely emotional experience. You'll mostly come across people asking 'What to buy ' or 'Is it a good time to buy?'. You'll seldom hear anyone asking "Is it time to sell?".

During a secular bull phase majority of investors see above average returns (unrealized gains) however only a small percentage of them are able to encash as most others fail to sell as they don't have an exit plan till the time the market enters the bear phase.

I hear people asking is it a good time to buy during bull markets, but when markets tank I hear the opposite.

And we've been in a secular bull market for the last, what 100+ years? There have been several cyclical bear markets during the same period but stocks have always gone higher in the end.

Look I'm not a crazy optimistic person who dreams that trees grow to the sky, but I think its reasonable for stocks to move higher over time since corporate earnings tend to grow 8-9% a year on average. Also its not like investors have great alternatives now. Cash has always lost value over time due to monetary debasement so theres no long term play in holding cash. Bonds have insanely high real negative yield now and I dun expect this to change much in the future (due to heavy gov debt loads in advanced economies).

I don't know how much the portfolio returns would improve if you avoid the 10 worst days in a given year. However, I'm clear avoiding a big drop closer to the peak is more beneficial and important than avoiding a bigger drop 25-30% below the index peak.

Your returns would be absolutely astounding if you are able to avoid the 10 worst days in a year yet capture all the gains of the 10 best days, but I dunno who can consistently do this for 30-40 years...

 

[d5dude]

sorry guys, noob here, side track a bit for STI ETF, the ETF need to pay the yearly mgt fees and expense ratio, so every year the brokerage less off the fees when we sell or they already build into the selling price

Expense ratio already includes management fee, its already in the ETF price, you only pay transaction fees to your broker (it varies) when you buy or sell.