The bears den

[theMKR]

Red walkers are coming. A shocking news will come very soon.

 

[coolhead]

That ejaculation in gold again.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[SBC]

Lai lai liao.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Lai lai liao.

Trump gauntlet is back!

 

[Kapish]

best to wait until the tariff reach 25% before going shopping

 

[chopra]

i think im lucky to have done some cash: stock rebalance before this slight dip

 

[chrisloh65]

Best to wait after tariff reach 25% and stock index drop 20% before shopping is safer strategy

best to wait until the tariff reach 25% before going shopping

 

[SpinFire]

Gold should be resuming its run to 1500+

 

[DukeCS33]

The market attempted a rally even though the Fed was not as dovish as what it expected and that is a symptom of the excess liquidity floating in the system. It would take a major shock to remind everyone that there are risks out there and that one should not get carried away. We had that reminder last night with trade tensions escalating up one notch. Surely the narrative would now change for the downside... and this increases with the passage of time towards September if we do not have any positive trade news announced. That aside, everyone would now focus on the negatives and all the factors that were ignored prior may well come out and haunt the markets - things like slowing global growth, earnings recession, junk bond yields hitting negative, a depressed yield curve that points to increased chance of recession, a less dovish interest rate trajectory.... that said, I suspect that at some stage, the liquidity floating out there will find another excuse to buy up the markets and may well say that the case for the Fed to cut aggressively may well have strengthened. Just as I have deliberately not participated in the rally to the topside, I would not play this downside swing either. My preference is now for intraday trading until the Market resolves the excesses and my view of both market direction, technical, macro fundamentals and its structure gets aligned. The one play of a longer term in nature that I would engage in would be to add on to SG reits portfolio. (if we have attractive valuations.) The recent deliberation to increase the leverage allowed for S reits by MAS adds another positive.

 

[coolhead]

The market attempted a rally even though the Fed was not as dovish as what it expected and that is a symptom of the excess liquidity floating in the system. It would take a major shock to remind everyone that there are risks out there and that one should not get carried away. We had that reminder last night with trade tensions escalating up one notch. Surely the narrative would now change for the downside... and this increases with the passage of time towards September if we do not have any positive trade news announced. That aside, everyone would now focus on the negatives and all the factors that were ignored prior may well come out and haunt the markets - things like slowing global growth, earnings recession, junk bond yields hitting negative, a depressed yield curve that points to increased chance of recession, a less dovish interest rate trajectory.... that said, I suspect that at some stage, the liquidity floating out there will find another excuse to buy up the markets and may well say that the case for the Fed to cut aggressively may well have strengthened. Just as I have deliberately not participated in the rally to the topside, I would not play this downside swing either. My preference is now for intraday trading until the Market resolves the excesses and my view of both market direction, technical, macro fundamentals and its structure gets aligned. The one play of a longer term in nature that I would engage in would be to add on to SG reits portfolio. (if we have attractive valuations.) The recent deliberation to increase the leverage allowed for S reits by MAS adds another positive.

For my understanding, can this liquidity work against the market bullish movement? Eg, instead of using the funds to push the market up further, instead it is used to short the market. Just curious if you happen to know.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Mecisteus]

What a turnaround.

My take of 8% correction still stands.

I plan to deploy back accordingly.

 

[[M]aiev]

What a turnaround.

My take of 8% correction still stands.

I plan to deploy back accordingly.

Probably I have to follow your posts from now on !

On the other hand, I took up PFE at $38.

I am looking to scale in my AMD position as well.

 

[Trader11]

Bear is real this time

 

[Mecisteus]

Probably I have to follow your posts from now on !

On the other hand, I took up PFE at $38.

My timing is usually lousy.

But the idea is the same.

Buy some then there is fear.

Sell some when there is greed.

 

[[M]aiev]

My timing is usually lousy.

But the idea is the same.

Buy some then there is fear.

Sell some when there is greed.

My rule is at least 10% for index. The PFE is just starter position. I do have PINS not long ago but is higher side of risk.

On the other hand, the one that I look to sell some are those cyclical based. Companies like MSFT, Visa Inc, Paypal can keep esp the former one is on AI research based intensively. $200 might be achievable.

 

[DukeCS33]

For my understanding, can this liquidity work against the market bullish movement? Eg, instead of using the funds to push the market up further, instead it is used to short the market. Just curious if you happen to know.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Not likely... the liquidity works towards bullishness and not bearishness. It takes money to buy stocks... if this money is not there, then there is no demand for stocks. And this liquidity can manifest in several other ways - corp buybacks, negative yield junk bonds etc. All these are price bullish moves.

 

[Trader11]

We are in chaos right now......

 

[DukeCS33]

We are in chaos right now......

The one who shorted would not think it is chaos.

 

[Trader11]

The one who shorted would not think it is chaos.

Indeed...... Chaos reduce odds and stress test your trading system. So I see it as positive as long as proper risk management are in place.

 

[DukeCS33]

Indeed...... Chaos reduce odds and stress test your trading system. So I see it as positive as long as proper risk management are in place.

I think there is no single universal trading system... one can have systems for each market condition and market structure. Filters need to be put in place to identify when one environment transitions to the other... and its during these transitions that most systems break down.
That's why all the system and quant funds invest in programmers and designers and are constantly devising new trading strategies.