The bears den

[DukeCS33]

This is interesting as there is some commonalities in our methods. But we are getting too technical for this thread. Wanna to create a specialized thread for such methodology.

Not really. I do not think there is much interest or participation. The last time I asked if anyone follows wcykoff's techniques and received no replies.

 

[revhappy]

Bears, please do not get carried away with the pessimism that has been amplified by the media. The Manufacturing ISM is only one data point and even though we have some writings about slower hiring from yesterday's private payroll numbers, it does not tell the full picture. The recession case is only made because ISM was at a 10 year low print. We all know that this slowdown in manufacturing (further exaggerated by trade war) has been ongoing. The hiring numbers are still at trend and does not point to a drop that may lead to a recession. Tonight's ISM service numbers would be more important as it is a larger part of the US economy and if we have a good print with supporting NFP numbers, the sentiment may well reverse. There is always a case of viewing a glass half full or half empty.

It depends on whether you are a very short term trader or a medium term trader. In the short term markets may bounce back. But over 6 months, with the delayed tariffs impact, earnings will be hit and markets will be lower. Even a trade resolution will take time to show in the earnings and by then we are already in a full blown recession.

 

[DukeCS33]

It depends on whether you are a very short term trader or a medium term trader. In the short term markets may bounce back. But over 6 months, with the delayed tariffs impact, earnings will be hit and markets will be lower. Even a trade resolution will take time to show in the earnings and by then we are already in a full blown recession.

We have exactly the same factors weighing down on the markets 6mths and 1 year ago. If the market did not tank then, it would be less likely now with more QE or rate cuts having been delivered. We may have a correction but do not think it would evolve into a bear market. The equity markets need more than the current factors to sell off deeply.

 

[revhappy]

We have exactly the same factors weighing down on the markets 6mths and 1 year ago. If the market did not tank then, it would be less likely now with more QE or rate cuts having been delivered. We may have a correction but do not think it would evolve into a bear market. The equity markets need more than the current factors to sell off deeply.

The employment and manufacturing numbers have only now started deteriorating. Also there was lot of hope trade that a trade deal will be done. Now the numbers will deteriorate and the hope of a trade deal will also go away.

 

[Shiny Things]

It is all about risk/reward. Given all the risks out there, S&P500 is just few percentage points away from ATH. This tells that people are still positioned optimistically. The best returns are made not when people are positioned optimistically. It is when people are selling like an armegedon is coming. You think it will never happen or that we cannot time it. But history shows that it happens when people least expect it.

I understand, and I don’t disagree that people are pretty optimistic right now. That’s a pretty sensible normal position, in fact, because stocks generally do go up.

But that wasn’t the question I asked. What I’m asking is: you said you were hoping for a “proper crash”. What counts as a “proper crash”? What would swing you from hoping for a crash to saying “now is the time to buy”?

 

[Trader11]

I understand, and I don’t disagree that people are pretty optimistic right now. That’s a pretty sensible normal position, in fact, because stocks generally do go up.

But that wasn’t the question I asked. What I’m asking is: you said you were hoping for a “proper crash”. What counts as a “proper crash”? What would swing you from hoping for a crash to saying “now is the time to buy”?

Wow even ShinyThing is bearish?

 

[revhappy]

I understand, and I don’t disagree that people are pretty optimistic right now. That’s a pretty sensible normal position, in fact, because stocks generally do go up.

But that wasn’t the question I asked. What I’m asking is: you said you were hoping for a “proper crash”. What counts as a “proper crash”? What would swing you from hoping for a crash to saying “now is the time to buy”?

I dont really have levels in mind, besides I am very unpredictable myself. I would be in cash and jump in when there is like turmoil and fear. When you watch Bloomberg and you have all Bear analysts coming on TV and giving even lower targets for the S&P500. I remember during the December 2018 market plunge, analysts on TV were saying we are going much lower like 2200 on S&P500. Unfortunately I was fully allocated at that time and couldnt make use of that opportunity.

 

[Trader11]

US gonna enter into technical recession thanks to Trumptard

 

[DukeCS33]

Look at ATVI - price action is very strong.

 

[revhappy]

DXY is falling. This will be a double win if you are in SGD cash and if USD and SPY fall together. Kind of unwind of both the currency and the stocks. The impact was high on the upside and now the impact will be high on the downside.

 

[MrHighlander]

Us market is now literally flat

DXY is falling. This will be a double win if you are in SGD cash and if USD and SPY fall together. Kind of unwind of both the currency and the stocks. The impact was high on the upside and now the impact will be high on the downside.

 

[Mecisteus]

I dont really have levels in mind, besides I am very unpredictable myself. I would be in cash and jump in when there is like turmoil and fear. When you watch Bloomberg and you have all Bear analysts coming on TV and giving even lower targets for the S&P500. I remember during the December 2018 market plunge, analysts on TV were saying we are going much lower like 2200 on S&P500. Unfortunately I was fully allocated at that time and couldnt make use of that opportunity.

I think if you have been discipline enough to invest since the last 10 years, your networth could have easily been 1.5M to 2M.

Stop flip flopping.

 

[DukeCS33]

The S&P posted an impressive rebound after the disappointing ISM service induced sell off. Not surprising, the S&P picked a level that coincided with trendline support drawn from 3 June's low formed from connecting all the lows thereafter.

From the Fed futures market, it looks like the Market is now pricing a 90% chance of a Oct cut and from reports I read, a total of 2 more cuts to be delivered by end of this year. It looks like the Markets is automatically assuming the Fed put would be supporting the downside. And therein lies the working of excessive liquidity in the Markets. So the key question would be if the payroll numbers would be disappointing and if bad news then would increase the chance of more cuts and therefore interpreted as bullish for the equity markets?

 

[DukeCS33]

I have flagged out ATVI as a stock that is poised to break up based on Wcykoff's methodologies. The stock made a test of the prior resistance breakout point and made a hammer bar on the back of heavy volume, suggesting that there is strong buying interest at a time when it was downgraded with a backdrop of a broader market sell off. Last night, it surged higher on high volume as well, attempting to put a bottom to the short term downtrend from 12 Sep. I have remarked that this retracement represents a safe entry and the price action last night, coupled with the background of accumulation based on Wcykoff's methodologies suggest that this is a stock marked by institutional funds.
Now that we have seen an impressive surge of some 7 - 8% from its low 2 days back, how do we play this if we would still like to participate? One can look for pullbacks in a typical swing trading to target an entry. The high volume move over the last 2 days suggest that there is still overhead supply and the stock may have a chance of a pullback or even another move back down.
As a standard caveat, please do your due diligence.

 

[h.y.o.m]

The S&P posted an impressive rebound after the disappointing ISM service induced sell off. Not surprising, the S&P picked a level that coincided with trendline support drawn from 3 June's low formed from connecting all the lows thereafter.

From the Fed futures market, it looks like the Market is now pricing a 90% chance of a Oct cut and from reports I read, a total of 2 more cuts to be delivered by end of this year. It looks like the Markets is automatically assuming the Fed put would be supporting the downside. And therein lies the working of excessive liquidity in the Markets. So the key question would be if the payroll numbers would be disappointing and if bad news then would increase the chance of more cuts and therefore interpreted as bullish for the equity markets?

While the rebound was impressive, the volume in the broad market was low. I observe that in recent weeks, U.S markets have been experiencing low volume on up days and high volume on down days. The technicals are negative. I consider the U.S market as bearish today.

Economic news coming out of the other major economies(Germany, Japan, China) are bad too. Having said that, economy is bad doesn't mean markets will be bad going forward, particularly thanks to the huge liquidity out there today. The trillions of dollars in negative-yielding safe bonds will be ready to pounce on the stock markets the moment an energetic bull returns to the stock markets.

I personally think that poor U.S stock market performance bodes well for the upcoming trade talks with China. When the U.S stock market is bullish, President Trump gets emboldened to impose tariffs on China when things don't go his way. We saw that behaviour in action last year 2018. It was the disastrous last quarter of 2018 that created a more conducive mood for the U.S to the negotiating table with China. More trade, more interaction, less chance for conflict, better for small countries like Singapore. When elephants fight, ants get trampled.

 

[DukeCS33]

While the rebound was impressive, the volume in the broad market was low. I observe that in recent weeks, U.S markets have been experiencing low volume on up days and high volume on down days. The technicals are negative. I consider the U.S market as bearish today.

Economic news coming out of the other major economies(Germany, Japan, China) are bad too. Having said that, economy is bad doesn't mean markets will be bad going forward, particularly thanks to the huge liquidity out there today. The trillions of dollars in negative-yielding safe bonds will be ready to pounce on the stock markets the moment an energetic bull returns to the stock markets.

I personally think that poor U.S stock market performance bodes well for the upcoming trade talks with China. When the U.S stock market is bullish, President Trump gets emboldened to impose tariffs on China when things don't go his way. We saw that behaviour in action last year 2018. It was the disastrous last quarter of 2018 that created a more conducive mood for the U.S to the negotiating table with China. More trade, more interaction, less chance for conflict, better for small countries like Singapore. When elephants fight, ants get trampled.

Yes, I share your observations and that was the reason why I stopped swing trading, preferring to trade only intraday. The decline in volume is quite evident on the weekly timeframe... a low volume rally seldoms result in a break to a new high. And the excess liquidity would keep the markets from falling. I now have my eye on the broadening top forming. The recent high volume sell off below the 2940 in the S&P marks a bearish change in behaviour. Not a easy market to navigate.

 

[peipei1]

Added some iwda on this dip. My first purchase since early of the year. The bear crash is not going to take place now i feel. Revhappy can concede his bet with Mike yet? Sp500 need to drop many points wor?

Yesterday recovery is plunge protection team buying or same case of buy on bad news?

 

[Mecisteus]

Added some iwda on this dip. My first purchase since early of the year. The bear crash is not going to take place now i feel. Revhappy can concede his bet with Mike yet? Sp500 need to drop many points wor?

Yesterday recovery is plunge protection team buying or same case of buy on bad news?

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/119580653-post1866.html

I'm willing to up my stake.

Give me $100 now. If S&P (daily) closes below 2,000 anytime till 2021, I will pay back $250.

revhappy you tell me if you want this deal.

PS: This is just a fun bet. Don't get too triggered.

 

[littleredboy]

You say don’t get triggered, you obviously want to trigger him

 

[Trader11]

I think if you have been discipline enough to invest since the last 10 years, your networth could have easily been 1.5M to 2M.

Stop flip flopping.

The job is a safety net. He doesn't need to over risk things. Not many earn 10K per month