The bears den

[havetheveryfun]

Trump is a shole trying to delist China company. Waiting for Alibaba to collapse to single digit.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdof...nside-companies-like-alibaba-geely-and-wahaha

this is the reason why

 

[churnmaster]

I don't see how Uber is really a major tech company.

What kind of huge R&D do they need? Maybe can benchmark the spending with Grab.

They should be focusing on marketing and gaining more market share instead.

Most of these companies focus on their valuations rather than their businesses. Their only intent is to boost valuation and monetize the same by selling majority / full stake to someone else.

 

[churnmaster]

I was following the Indian markets, so was mostly on twitter But today sold my Indian unit trusts for a small profit 2% odd and I am back in cash now. Waiting for a crash

Congrats! We were missing you.

Din't hear the word "crash" for almost 6-8 weeks

 

[revhappy]

Next week is going to be interesting for HK/China stocks. Trump applying restrictions for Chinese ADRs(although I think this is only him trying to use it as a bargaining chip during the trade negotiations) and HK protests during their national day.

 

[DukeCS33]

I asked if anyone follows Wcykoff prior but did not receive any reply. For those who are interested in his works, I have attached a link which gives a summary:

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One would need to know how to read price volume analysis in conjunction with the principles. That said, have a look at the daily chart of ATVI - it looks like accumulation may be over and we have a Last point of support at current levels, awaiting the next mark up higher.

 

[Trader11]

I asked if anyone follows Wcykoff prior but did not receive any reply. For those who are interested in his works, I have attached a link which gives a summary:

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One would need to know how to read price volume analysis in conjunction with the principles. That said, have a look at the daily chart of ATVI - it looks like accumulation may be over and we have a Last point of support at current levels, awaiting the next mark up higher.

The concepts of accumulation and distribution are interesting. But not sure how to measure it....

 

[Trader11]

For ATVI, it looks like the accumulation was around 40-50

 

[DukeCS33]

The concepts of accumulation and distribution are interesting. But not sure how to measure it....

Not sure what you mean by measuring it. But it does show where accumulation may potentially be taking place. A fund which is buying a large quantity cannot do so without moving the price. So what they do is to buy at a target zone area and sell above at a certain range to keep prices from flying away. They may also shake out all the stops as that's where the liquidity is and once they have finished accumulating, they would signal via a series of mark ups so that it gets the interest of market makers and the wider trading populace... Normally news would be use to good effect to mark prices higher - the mark up phrase is where the stock would then start swing trading higher until distribution takes place in earnest. Based on Wcykoff, I think the current levels in ATVI shows a secondary test of the resistance that broke after the marking up. This is known as the last point of support (LPS) and if no supply is observed, the stock may be ready to swing. This LPS is also potentially one of the safer long entries for someone looking to trade the Wcykoff playbook.

There is some overhead supply at 55. I am personally looking for an entry if certain VSA criteria gets fulfilled and looking for a break above 55 towards the 60 to 65 zone as first resistance.

And yes you are right - accumulation was around the 40 to 50 zone with most of the volume going through around 45 to 48 level.

 

[peterchan75]

Not sure what you mean by measuring it. But it does show where accumulation may potentially be taking place. A fund which is buying a large quantity cannot do so without moving the price. So what they do is to buy at a target zone area and sell above at a certain range to keep prices from flying away. They may also shake out all the stops as that's where the liquidity is and once they have finished accumulating, they would signal via a series of mark ups so that it gets the interest of market makers and the wider trading populace... Normally news would be use to good effect to mark prices higher - the mark up phrase is where the stock would then start swing trading higher until distribution takes place in earnest. Based on Wcykoff, I think the current levels in ATVI shows a secondary test of the resistance that broke after the marking up. This is known as the last point of support (LPS) and if no supply is observed, the stock may be ready to swing. This LPS is also potentially one of the safer long entries for someone looking to trade the Wcykoff playbook.

There is some overhead supply at 55. I am personally looking for an entry if certain VSA criteria gets fulfilled and looking for a break above 55 towards the 60 to 65 zone as first resistance.

And yes you are right - accumulation was around the 40 to 50 zone with most of the volume going through around 45 to 48 level.

During Wcyhoff's time, there is no dark pool.

 

[DukeCS33]

During Wcyhoff's time, there is no dark pool.

Yes. But volume would still need to be reported... Just that it gets harder to interpret

 

[Trader11]

Not sure what you mean by measuring it. But it does show where accumulation may potentially be taking place. A fund which is buying a large quantity cannot do so without moving the price. So what they do is to buy at a target zone area and sell above at a certain range to keep prices from flying away. They may also shake out all the stops as that's where the liquidity is and once they have finished accumulating, they would signal via a series of mark ups so that it gets the interest of market makers and the wider trading populace... Normally news would be use to good effect to mark prices higher - the mark up phrase is where the stock would then start swing trading higher until distribution takes place in earnest. Based on Wcykoff, I think the current levels in ATVI shows a secondary test of the resistance that broke after the marking up. This is known as the last point of support (LPS) and if no supply is observed, the stock may be ready to swing. This LPS is also potentially one of the safer long entries for someone looking to trade the Wcykoff playbook.

There is some overhead supply at 55. I am personally looking for an entry if certain VSA criteria gets fulfilled and looking for a break above 55 towards the 60 to 65 zone as first resistance.

And yes you are right - accumulation was around the 40 to 50 zone with most of the volume going through around 45 to 48 level.

I see it as distribution rather than accumulation. More supply at 60 range than demand.

 

[Trader11]

During Wcyhoff's time, there is no dark pool.

I saw some studies that volume are correlated to the reality even for forex

 

[DukeCS33]

I see it as distribution rather than accumulation. More supply at 60 range than demand.

How are you interpreting this as distribution?

 

[Trader11]

How are you interpreting this as distribution?

I see a sellout around 55-60 range after an accumulation at 45 range. Breaking 50 plus is a signal to short. As usual, dydd

 

[Trader11]

I see a sellout around 55-60 range after an accumulation at 45 range. Breaking 50 plus is a signal to short. As usual, dydd

This is like 30% profits for Big boys

 

[revhappy]

I am 90% cash now. Crash the markets please.

 

[Trader11]

Trump really fckup this time. US manufacturing is in recession based on pmi

 

[DukeCS33]

This is like 30% profits for Big boys

For such an accumulation exercise, the big insto boys would not target a mere 30%. I guess you are looking at the more immediate picture while I was looking at a much longer timeframe.

 

[DukeCS33]

The 2940 in the SP futures was breached for the first time after various attempts to push to the topside failed. Looking at the chart all the way back to Jan 2018, a case can potentially be made for a broadening top pattern and a push and close below the 2940 in the SP futures this week may add on to the bearish broadening top scenario. If that happens, the market can potentially test the lows established in August again.

Looking at the weekly chart, one may observe that the volume accompanying this rally from Aug was on the back of relatively low volume... if the rally were to continue and break new highs, we should ideally see an increase of volume backing the move. Low volume breaks just get me suspicious.

 

[revhappy]

Wait for some fake trade news by Trump admin to arrest the fall. Something as vague as, 'we will have a trade deal sooner than you think'. Sooner than who thinks? I think it will happen in 10 years, so it may happen in 5 years. But, dumb markets can be manipulated.

But I think even if we have a trade deal right now, remove all tariffs and go back to Pre Trump status, the economy won't improve so fast, so it is foolish of markets to keep bidding up in the hope of a deal.