The bears den

[coolhead]

Not sure how this works but I thought this is interesting. It shows the weekend wallstreet chart to give an indication when market opens on Monday. As of now, DJI is at -0.25%.

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street

 

[coolhead]

Once Fed cut rate is like acknowledging to people that USA house on fire, the more US stock indexes will drop.

Agreed, which is why if the fed ever announces a rate cut, there must be a damn good justification, as it acknowledges the risk of recession is real and it is doing what it can to mitigate the risk. The risk of recession comes from data and economic data currently is decent, except for a continual lack in inflation growth. In this regard, I'll expect no rate cuts in September based on current data.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Futures down 0.7%

 

[DukeCS33]

China is retaliating with non tariff measures. FedEx is getting caught in this political cross fire and more US firms will get entangled.
Watch UST yields. The 2s 10s inverting will see further damage on equity markets.

 

[madtari]

Is there any website which shows the latest UST yield chart with the various lengths of UST being superimposed in the same charts? I tried to google but only managed to find chart for a specific UST...

How do we monitor if the 2s 10s will cross and if the 1s 10s will be inverted more deeply?

China is retaliating with non tariff measures. FedEx is getting caught in this political cross fire and more US firms will get entangled.
Watch UST yields. The 2s 10s inverting will see further damage on equity markets.

 

[DukeCS33]

Is there any website which shows the latest UST yield chart with the various lengths of UST being superimposed in the same charts? I tried to google but only managed to find chart for a specific UST...

How do we monitor if the 2s 10s will cross and if the 1s 10s will be inverted more deeply?

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/market-info/yield-curves-chart

Note that the market's convention is to look at the 2s 10s rather than any other parts of the curve for recession signalling effect. Of course if other parts of the yield curve inverts, then the likelihood of the 2s 10s inverting is higher. The real money accounts would be more inclined to take action when 2s 10s invert and when the S&P index trades below the 200 MA or we have a standard death cross.

One indicator that I use is the fed funds rate vs 10y UST yields. An inversion is my leading indicator of stock market gloom.

 

[DukeCS33]

Futures down 0.7%

Looks like the Markets are being griped by fear - SP futures open with a small 5 point gap vs last Friday's close. And this would continue as the US and Chinese ratchet up rhetoric and threats.
I am inclined to see this gap closing.

 

[madtari]

Thanks a lot!

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/market-info/yield-curves-chart

Note that the market's convention is to look at the 2s 10s rather than any other parts of the curve for recession signalling effect. Of course if other parts of the yield curve inverts, then the likelihood of the 2s 10s inverting is higher. The real money accounts would be more inclined to take action when 2s 10s invert and when the S&P index trades below the 200 MA or we have a standard death cross.

One indicator that I use is the fed funds rate vs 10y UST yields. An inversion is my leading indicator of stock market gloom.

 

[revhappy]

Asian indices are not really falling off inspite of negative US futures. Infact ES3 is in the green. Crazy rich Asians, lol!

 

[theMKR]

Asian indices are not really falling off inspite of negative US futures. Infact ES3 is in the green. Crazy rich Asians, lol!

but japan is all red wor....

i just traded tsej for fun. now regret lolx

 

[revhappy]

but japan is all red wor....

i just traded tsej for fun. now regret lolx

Japan is unique because Yen is a safe haven. Yen goes up and stocks fall in response.

 

[revhappy]

Futures now at days low.

 

[revhappy]

 

[coolhead]

Need ta experts to validate if the next support levels for the s&p500 are:
2751
2745
2739

Thanks.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[theMKR]

Need ta experts to validate if the next support levels for the s&p500 are:
2751
2745
2739

Thanks.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

now is 2751?

 

[coolhead]

now is 2751?

now is 2752.

 

[churnmaster]

Asian indices are not really falling off inspite of negative US futures. Infact ES3 is in the green. Crazy rich Asians, lol!

Money flowing into these markets ... you can figure out from the way these currencies have performed especially IDR, INR, PHP. All are large domestic plays and net importers of oil. Any global slowdown triggered by slowdown in China means lower oil / commodity prices and very much beneficial to these economies. The major export driven Asian economies would also eventually benefit from exports to these economies albeit with a time gap.

 

[churnmaster]

Looks like the Markets are being griped by fear - SP futures open with a small 5 point gap vs last Friday's close. And this would continue as the US and Chinese ratchet up rhetoric and threats.
I am inclined to see this gap closing.

I think we are getting into another range say 2720/2725 to 2795/2800. Slow range bound trading. Anyways, its a new month and we are already seeing some risk on in the currency markets.

I'm looking at selling into the rally if it comes closer to 2800.

 

[theMKR]

Actually the bears here are bearish views but aiming long?

I am bearish and shorting the crap out of tsla

 

[churnmaster]

Actually the bears here are bearish views but aiming long?

I am bearish and shorting the crap out of tsla

Good ... Elon Musk is sweating