The bears den

[coolhead]

Holy smoke, I just finished a 2 hour concall and gold ejaculated. Was there some news?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Shortthemkt]

He's selling the market bro.... It's in his name ...

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

You said it best.

 

[Mecisteus]

He's selling the market bro.... It's in his name ...

OK fair enough.

 

[coolhead]

Looking at data objectively, the numbers are turning worst. An increase in initial jobless claims will ultimately increase the continuing jobless claims. Can see that initial jobless claims seems to have broken the downtrend and instead turning upwards or at most optimistic, stagnant. Reinforcing the upwards trend in initial jobless claim is the continuing jobless claim turning stagnant from downward trend. This is indicative that we may have bottomed in terms of employment rate of 3.6% and employment rate may have reached an inflection point.

ADP shows a blip recently which broke from the typical 180-300k employment quantity. Note the big drop in 2008 during the last financial crisis.

Nonfarm payroll remains stagnant so far so this is the only good statistic.

If ADP employment change, initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims get worst in july it is likely we will see unemployment rise and thereby for the fed to perform a rate cut in september if they don't want to remain behind the curve.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Mecisteus]

If you sell or stay out of market, you miss this super rally.

God bless you if you are short.

The S&P 500 is on track for its best June since 1955

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/28/investing/stocks-june-recap/index.html

 

[revhappy]

Good news is bullish. Bad news is Super Bullish! Welcome to 1999.

 

[churnmaster]

If you sell or stay out of market, you miss this super rally.

God bless you if you are short.

The S&P 500 is on track for its best June since 1955

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/28/investing/stocks-june-recap/index.html

Yes and we are back to where we were on 26th Jan 2018. IWDA on that day USD 57.67 and yesterday USD 57.5. What a rally it has been

 

[Shortthemkt]

If you sell or stay out of market, you miss this super rally.

God bless you if you are short.

The S&P 500 is on track for its best June since 1955

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/28/investing/stocks-june-recap/index.html

Ok to short for short term (i.e. 1-14days). S&P500 you mustn't hold your shorts for weeks.

But the downside velocity is fiercer than the upside.

 

[Kapish]

Yes and we are back to where we were on 26th Jan 2018. IWDA on that day USD 57.67 and yesterday USD 57.5. What a rally it has been

all my tech stocks are up.
long XLNX, NVDA, NXPI

 

[Shortthemkt]

You just joined in May and you are showing us your P/L.

Just be frank with us what with what you are trying to sell.

So far you haven't share anything in the forum.

I did share something la. You missed it.

What one can do is to short now and cut above 2915.

2895 now. Consider moving stop loss to entry as it hits 200MA. If you want short term profits you can square off the short now. Congrats.

 

[Shortthemkt]

Take it easy guys. It's flyday and G20 wkend
Dun hold your shorts overnight unless you are cock sure Trump will say "nay" to Xi.

 

[coolhead]

Take it easy guys. It's flyday and G20 wkend
Dun hold your shorts overnight unless you are cock sure Trump will say "nay" to Xi.

Noted, will not want to be caught with my shorts down.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Take it easy guys. It's flyday and G20 wkend
Dun hold your shorts overnight unless you are cock sure Trump will say "nay" to Xi.

Most traders would be thinking the same thing and closing their shorts. So tonight's action will provide and indication about the shorts in the system.

 

[Mecisteus]

Yes and we are back to where we were on 26th Jan 2018. IWDA on that day USD 57.67 and yesterday USD 57.5. What a rally it has been

Actually I don't hold IWDA.

Anyway you are assuming someone would buy on Jan 2018 and that's it?

This poor guy not buying anything at all on the dips?

 

[Mecisteus]

Ok to short for short term (i.e. 1-14days). S&P500 you mustn't hold your shorts for weeks.

But the downside velocity is fiercer than the upside.

Yeah the winning for Toto 1st prize is also fiercer but chance of winning is close to zero.

And I suggest you look at the performances of a 100% bear and short only fund. How good their returns are.

 

[churnmaster]

Most traders would be thinking the same thing and closing their shorts. So tonight's action will provide and indication about the shorts in the system.

Last day of the month and quarter, is window dressing day for the institutions.

 

[churnmaster]

Actually I don't hold IWDA.

Anyway you are assuming someone would buy on Jan 2018 and that's it?

This poor guy not buying anything at all on the dips?

No, its not about IWDA.

It's about the fact that in a sideways market even a well diversified low cost fund, with investments in dividend paying underlying stocks, finds it difficult to beat the market. This is what I call the "Tread mill" effect of a passive 'buy and hold' strategy in a sideways market.

Now, say if the guy who bought US$ 5K worth of IWDA in Jan 2018, added US$ 5K to his position in Feb 2018 when the market got oversold and then sold this US$ 5K incremental investment in Sep 2018 when the market went to overbought level, he could have atleast made 5-7% return on his incremental investment. The actual move was almost 10% but considering the fact that you can't always be lucky to pick the top and the bottom and also accounting for transaction cost, 5-7% is a reasonable assumption. The original US$ 5K investment can remain there while repeating the above process in the subsequent retreat and rally. This is what I call actively managing your passive investment.

The fact that prices are moving is providing you an opportunity to make money as an investor or trader. If prices are stationary then you make money only by selling options.

 

[churnmaster]

Singapore is going to enter technical recession. How bullish!

Technical recession ... does it lead to spike in unemployment rate, business bankruptcies and sharp drop in consumer confidence & subsequent spending?

In the peak of GFC in 2009, during CNY getting a table for CNY lunch in 5 star restaurants to entertain corporate clients was becoming difficult. There seem to be no curtailment in spending by big corporates / businesses. The same year couple of months later both NATAS fair and Chan Brothers Travel fair made record sales. The above are examples of consumer discretionary spending in Singapore. All this happened while the GDP figures were still showing recession.

 

[Mecisteus]

No, its not about IWDA.

It's about the fact that in a sideways market even a well diversified low cost fund, with investments in dividend paying underlying stocks, finds it difficult to beat the market. This is what I call the "Tread mill" effect of a passive 'buy and hold' strategy in a sideways market.

Now, say if the guy who bought US$ 5K worth of IWDA in Jan 2018, added US$ 5K to his position in Feb 2018 when the market got oversold and then sold this US$ 5K incremental investment in Sep 2018 when the market went to overbought level, he could have atleast made 5-7% return on his incremental investment. The actual move was almost 10% but considering the fact that you can't always be lucky to pick the top and the bottom and also accounting for transaction cost, 5-7% is a reasonable assumption. The original US$ 5K investment can remain there while repeating the above process in the subsequent retreat and rally. This is what I call actively managing your passive investment.

The fact that prices are moving is providing you an opportunity to make money as an investor or trader. If prices are stationary then you make money only by selling options.

When you look at the charts from the LHS, it is so easy to identify a sideways, upwards or downwards market on the right side.

Try looking from the RHS and tell us where the market is heading.

For someone who is doing a RSP into IWDA or whatever ETFs, the direction of the market in the short to mid term is not important.

Even a lousy and sideways STI is giving me an annualised 5% pa returns when I do a RSP for the last 36 months. I don't need much effort with my RSP in STI.

 

[hindsight]

No, its not about IWDA.

It's about the fact that in a sideways market even a well diversified low cost fund, with investments in dividend paying underlying stocks, finds it difficult to beat the market. This is what I call the "Tread mill" effect of a passive 'buy and hold' strategy in a sideways market.

Now, say if the guy who bought US$ 5K worth of IWDA in Jan 2018, added US$ 5K to his position in Feb 2018 when the market got oversold and then sold this US$ 5K incremental investment in Sep 2018 when the market went to overbought level, he could have atleast made 5-7% return on his incremental investment. The actual move was almost 10% but considering the fact that you can't always be lucky to pick the top and the bottom and also accounting for transaction cost, 5-7% is a reasonable assumption. The original US$ 5K investment can remain there while repeating the above process in the subsequent retreat and rally. This is what I call actively managing your passive investment.

The fact that prices are moving is providing you an opportunity to make money as an investor or trader. If prices are stationary then you make money only by selling options.

Nobody can beat the market by investing in IWDA because it pretty much tracks the MSCI world index, which happens to be the market.