The bears den

[Mecisteus]

I tink mr bear is more sneaky than mr bull. Sharp drop vs gradual rise. He will ambush at the least expected timing.

This is hard truth.

 

[limster]

June I didn't buy anything, waiting for the Big Sale that didn't come.

June I just subscribed to 5,000 rights shares for my Frasers Centrepoint Trust, and pressed for 18,000 Astrea V.

July I think I shall resume buying, maybe focusing more on bond and equity ETF instead of stock picking,

 

[coolhead]

S&p500 weekend futures are mildly positive at 0.33% at the moment.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[TiOnGSquare]

microsoft hard to enter sia

 

[wutawa]

microsoft hard to enter sia

I just recently bought 5 shares with $10.70 (1.59%) fees. Currently at a loss, $137 to breakeven.

 

[DukeCS33]

How would the Market read this trade truce announcement? Would the case for interest rate cuts be weakened and therefore inducing a sell off in a rally that was formerly pushed due to cuts being priced in? Or would the prospect of easing of trade war prompt a rally that may bring the indices higher?
Bear in mind that last Friday's rally may in part be due to window dressing. So its going to be interesting.

 

[d9_lives]

Or would the prospect of easing of trade war prompt a rally that may bring the indices higher?

This.
+ rate cut will add more fuel.

The doomsayers can continue to stay out, scare the **** out of each other and witness the dumb ones gain...

 

[Dividends Warrior]

This.
+ rate cut will add more fuel.

The doomsayers can continue to stay out, scare the **** out of each other and witness the dumb ones gain...

Well said. Harsh, but well said.

 

[wutawa]

Well said. Harsh, but well said.

Saying this in the bears den is like saying m1 or starhub is better in the singtel thread.

 

[peipei1]

June I didn't buy anything, waiting for the Big Sale that didn't come.

June I just subscribed to 5,000 rights shares for my Frasers Centrepoint Trust, and pressed for 18,000 Astrea V.

July I think I shall resume buying, maybe focusing more on bond and equity ETF instead of stock picking,

Hi limster, would like to follow your tips, also havent been adding any long term positions. Do we start to add Iwda next month as it seems Trump is all bark no bite. The bear is going back to its den? We also scared this is call Fomo bull trap?

 

[coolhead]

This.
+ rate cut will add more fuel.

The doomsayers can continue to stay out, scare the **** out of each other and witness the dumb ones gain...

I love rate cuts

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Saying this in the bears den is like saying m1 or starhub is better in the singtel thread.

To me this trade war is all side show. The real economy is slowing down globally. There is no way to escape this just with some trade talk here, a rate cut there. Fed is going be caught again behind the curve and will have to ease massively.

 

[limster]

This.
+ rate cut will add more fuel.

The doomsayers can continue to stay out, scare the **** out of each other and witness the dumb ones gain...

Hi limster, would like to follow your tips, also havent been adding any long term positions. Do we start to add Iwda next month as it seems Trump is all bark no bite. The bear is going back to its den? We also scared this is call Fomo bull trap?

Saying this in the bears den is like saying m1 or starhub is better in the singtel thread.

I think this is the wrong thread to give tips on going long on shares/ETFs

There is a difference between being a bear and a permabear. A bear can become less bearish or even bullish, but the permabear is always "Doctor Doom", one day he may be correct, but he will miss out on a lot while waiting for the day he is correct... Uncle168, where are you?

Myself, I was very worried in June. For July, I am cautiously reviewing my position as I get more information (as opposed to seeking out only information that confirms a bullish or bearish bias). So I will start buying shares again in July, maybe 50% of free cash flow into equities/ETFs, and 50% to fixed income/ETFs.

Certainly not ready to buy 100% equities yet. On the other hand, simply sitting on cash and too fearful to even buy 1 single IWDA share, I think thats not right either. (my personal preference is WQDV instead of IWDA but thats because I like dividends...)


The bears are underestimating the (psychological and/or monetary) impact of Fed's ability to cut rates. The Bulls should be glad on hindsight that Fed raised rates, so now it has room to cut, cancelling out one of the bear's main doomsday scenarios, that we enter recession and Fed has no more room to cut rates. They should also be glad that Powell is in charge as a rate cut with a less credible Chair in charge might not have the same confidence boosting ability.

 

[limster]

To me this trade war is all side show. The real economy is slowing down globally. There is no way to escape this just with some trade talk here, a rate cut there. Fed is going be caught again behind the curve and will have to ease massively.

A lot growth is probably unsustainable and might even be called exploitative growth, because they just look at how much is produced and not at social, environmental costs, and resource depletion.

A global slowdown would be an ideal opportunity to 're-tool' for more sustainable growth. So look out for those companies/sectors that will support the retooling.

At the same people, people got to eat, shop, use electricity, telecomm services, go for medical treatment, take public transport. Slower growth might even help these industries. No need to expend even more Capex to build another MRT line, can delay 5G rollout... with less Capex, I expect dividends for these industries to remain healthy

 

[peipei1]

Chair Powell is good and level headed. When we started buying Etf, was disappointing to read Powell is very hawkish and a fellow republican, afraid he is anyhow come de, like Trump.

You make sense to try WQDV for dividends, checking both YTD, even with expense ratio, WQDV came out slightly behind. WQDV have less exposure to US but also less holdings. I enjoying dividends from Investsaver and SGX shares, dividends feel safer somewhat if market crash, you already kept them.

Can we suggest Dbs to add WQDV and IWDA to investsaver, then we can close Ibkr le.

My IBkr account for last few months buying/selling upro and tqqq, these 2 etf do breed some greed in all of us, lucky is net small gains enough to offset staying out of long term holdings, and so now feeling bullish to hold them longer. Sure die later.

 

[DukeCS33]

I think this is the wrong thread to give tips on going long on shares/ETFs

There is a difference between being a bear and a permabear. A bear can become less bearish or even bullish, but the permabear is always "Doctor Doom", one day he may be correct, but he will miss out on a lot while waiting for the day he is correct... Uncle168, where are you?

Myself, I was very worried in June. For July, I am cautiously reviewing my position as I get more information (as opposed to seeking out only information that confirms a bullish or bearish bias). So I will start buying shares again in July, maybe 50% of free cash flow into equities/ETFs, and 50% to fixed income/ETFs.

Certainly not ready to buy 100% equities yet. On the other hand, simply sitting on cash and too fearful to even buy 1 single IWDA share, I think thats not right either. (my personal preference is WQDV instead of IWDA but thats because I like dividends...)


The bears are underestimating the (psychological and/or monetary) impact of Fed's ability to cut rates. The Bulls should be glad on hindsight that Fed raised rates, so now it has room to cut, cancelling out one of the bear's main doomsday scenarios, that we enter recession and Fed has no more room to cut rates. They should also be glad that Powell is in charge as a rate cut with a less credible Chair in charge might not have the same confidence boosting ability.

Like you, I am quite cautious and did not quite fully buy into the current rally - intuitively, the stock market should receive a boost if rates are cut - but now, it is running ahead pricing in 100basis points of cut - there is bound to be disappointment if the Fed does not deliver on this. And if one looks at the current data run, there is not a very strong reason for cuts unless the trade war bites. Right now, the outlook has brightened up on that front given the resumption of trade talks.. which brings in the rationale that the market had, in pricing in cuts into question. The Fed's favoured measure of inflation, PCE is also inching higher and raises the bar for cuts. So we may well have a little follow though rally on the back of trade talks resuming but to have another bull run that follows from rate cut expectations would in my mind, be a rather tall order.
Corp earning reporting is around the corner and this may well show if the rise in tensions may have impact corporate earnings given the number of companies warning of slowdown last quarter.
On the liquidity front, passive ETF flows would on balance, still support the market but until the active funds join in, I still think we do not have a all clear signal for July.

 

[limster]

Can we suggest Dbs to add WQDV and IWDA to investsaver, then we can close Ibkr le.

I am using SCB for my WQDV and IWDA holdings.

 

[FrostWurm]

To me this trade war is all side show. The real economy is slowing down globally. There is no way to escape this just with some trade talk here, a rate cut there. Fed is going be caught again behind the curve and will have to ease massively.

There is such a fundamental restructuring of the labour factors going on that in a decade, the monetary policy of any cental bank will be unable to achieve any meaningful objective.

 

[Mecisteus]

I think this is the wrong thread to give tips on going long on shares/ETFs

There is a difference between being a bear and a permabear. A bear can become less bearish or even bullish, but the permabear is always "Doctor Doom", one day he may be correct, but he will miss out on a lot while waiting for the day he is correct... Uncle168, where are you?

You will become a permabear if you read bearish tweets and articles from 0hedge. Everyday there will always be some bearish tweets.

The 0hedge author must be very fortunate to earn alot of money driving permabears to his website.

Silently, he must be investing and saving his income through passive index funds. Because he is smart enough to know what tools actually work in the longer term.

 

[Kapish]

wah now trump allow sales to huawei again .. that means chip stocks will up like a rocket on monday