The bears den

[coolhead]

I expect Trump to start tweeting again. Personally, I do not think we would have a trade resolution. So its now up to the Fed to cut rates aggressively to save the equity markets... The bond market is indicating a more aggressive rate cut path. Prior, we always hear that the market needs to respect the Fed. Under Powell, it appears that the Fed may well be led by the Markets.

I had been too focused on the economic aspects previously and neglected on the political front. Now it all starts to make sense. Trump wants to secure his presidency next year. He needs to spin a story of economic prosperity to his electorate. How else by ensuring the stock markets goes higher and Americans feel wealthier by asset price increases; whether real or bubble.
Trump has stated he wants a weaker dollar to compete on America exports and focuses on stock market performance. Apart from utilising the $100bn fund under the treasury, another way is to pressure the fed to lower interest rates. What better way than to throw in a trade war to force fed's hand? I suspect the fed has a hand to make it happen, afterall being chosen by trump but it cannot be painfully obvious that he works to trump. There is no freaking reason to lower rates when US economy is in expansion.
All along, the fed has been data driven from Ben bernancke till Janet yellen and even Powell up to the point of 4 rate increases. But it all suddenly ended nearer to US presidency? Doesn't make sense.
So it is no wonder that the market is betting on more rate cuts this year. It's not about the economy sputtering at all, it's about the trump presidency.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Trader11]

I expect Trump to start tweeting again. Personally, I do not think we would have a trade resolution. So its now up to the Fed to cut rates aggressively to save the equity markets... The bond market is indicating a more aggressive rate cut path. Prior, we always hear that the market needs to respect the Fed. Under Powell, it appears that the Fed may well be led by the Markets.

2015 crashes were rescued by Auntie Yellen. Expect the same from Uncle Powell

 

[coolhead]

And the biggest reason trump can pull these theatrics off is because he doesn't answer to US businesses for his actions.... Damn... It all makes sense.

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[Trader11]

And the biggest reason trump can pull these theatrics off is because he doesn't answer to US businesses for his actions.... Damn... It all makes sense.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

His voters like to see US wins and dominate China, EU etc.

 

[coolhead]

His voters like to see US wins and dominate China, EU etc.

If trump answers to US businesses for funding, he probably will not be able to pull off a trade war against china...

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[littleredboy]

He doesn't even answer to his party
Frankly, he's a good trickster and negotiator.
But because of him, volatilty is high and to catch all his tweets waving the markets up and down, there is money to be made in the short term. I'm still waiting for the volatility futures to hit even higher.

Oh but he answers to Pudding

 

[DukeCS33]

I had been too focused on the economic aspects previously and neglected on the political front. Now it all starts to make sense. Trump wants to secure his presidency next year. He needs to spin a story of economic prosperity to his electorate. How else by ensuring the stock markets goes higher and Americans feel wealthier by asset price increases; whether real or bubble.
Trump has stated he wants a weaker dollar to compete on America exports and focuses on stock market performance. Apart from utilising the $100bn fund under the treasury, another way is to pressure the fed to lower interest rates. What better way than to throw in a trade war to force fed's hand? I suspect the fed has a hand to make it happen, afterall being chosen by trump but it cannot be painfully obvious that he works to trump. There is no freaking reason to lower rates when US economy is in expansion.
All along, the fed has been data driven from Ben bernancke till Janet yellen and even Powell up to the point of 4 rate increases. But it all suddenly ended nearer to US presidency? Doesn't make sense.
So it is no wonder that the market is betting on more rate cuts this year. It's not about the economy sputtering at all, it's about the trump presidency.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

That's another conspiracy theory that I have heard making rounds but do not ignore the power of American business lobbyists. They are a force to reckon with and ignoring their interests may well jeopardise any party's election chances. So its really a fine line. What I see now is a shift in the Fed and do not see them as independent as before. In any case, I would continue with my playbook. Still intraday trading until a point where I see a turning point to deploy my capital into longer term bets. It looks like this sell off may exceed the sell off late April soon and any sell offs that exceeds the last correction in magnitude, volume and duration would represent a major shift in sentiment and warns of a top in place.

 

[revhappy]

ES3 is down 3.3% today. Did it go ex dividend or something

 

[Dividends Warrior]

ES3 is down 3.3% today. Did it go ex dividend or something

Affected by HSI. Protestors are attempting to shut down the city with a massive strike today.

 

[peterchan75]

ES3 is down 3.3% today. Did it go ex dividend or something

The movement of an index ETF is dependent of its underlying. It should closely track STI otherwise it's due to tracking error.

 

[revhappy]

Affected by HSI. Protestors are attempting to shut down the city with a massive strike today.

Yeah I am following that closely. But still surprised it will impact SG so much.

 

[revhappy]

The movement of an index ETF is dependent of its underlying. It should closely track STI otherwise it's due to tracking error.

Yes, but the accumulated dividend makes a difference. STI components keep distributing dividends regularly, but ES3 will accumulate them and then distribute it once a quarter.

 

[revhappy]

South Korea is serious bloodbath. The index is down 12% for the year and KRW is down 8%. So total 20% down over a year.

 

[coolhead]

South Korea is serious bloodbath. The index is down 12% for the year and KRW is down 8%. So total 20% down over a year.

Condolences....

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Trader11]

Lol revhappy got what he wished.......

 

[peterchan75]

Yes, but the accumulated dividend makes a difference. STI components keep distributing dividends regularly, but ES3 will accumulate them and then distribute it once a quarter.

AP can buy the ETF shares and sell the underlying components if the ETF market value gets too far below the NAV. These opportunities can provide a quick and relatively risk-free profit for the AP while also keeping the values close together. There may be multiple APs for an ETF, ensuring that more than one party can step into arbitrage away any price discrepancies.

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...-net-asset-value-nav-and-its-market-price.asp
The AP can make 1.6% now by buying and liquidating, but doing so will depress the market further.

 

[coolhead]

Holeefk, us 10year yield woomed down to 1.86%....

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10 year bond yields dropped to 1.78%, from Friday closing of 1.86%. bond yield spread against 2 year is still the same as 2 year yield dropped by a similar absolute amount.

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[chopra]

ES3 is down 3.3% today. Did it go ex dividend or something

es3 is not down by 3%. u see wrongly?

 

[revhappy]

es3 is not down by 3%. u see wrongly?

Webulls is saying.

FSM also saying

 

[chopra]

yahoo finance put previous close at 3.27