The bears den

[revhappy]

Trump is emboldened by the strong markets and hence applies tariffs. Market thinks Trump is just bluffing and remains strong. I think markets will blink first and crash and then Trump will chicken out and cancel tariffs. Markets by then will have lots to worry about like global trade slump and recession, so trump cancelling tariffs may be too little too late.

 

[NewInvestor]

Trump is emboldened by the strong markets and hence applies tariffs. Market thinks Trump is just bluffing and remains strong. I think markets will blink first and crash and then Trump will chicken out and cancel tariffs. Markets by then will have lots to worry about like global trade slump and recession, so trump cancelling tariffs may be too little too late.

Still waiting excitedly for a crash

 

[revhappy]

Still waiting excitedly for a crash

The most difficult thing to do is sit on cash and not deploy it while watching the markets fall.

I wish someone can lock me away and my cash for 6 months. I am sure by then we will be in a full blown crisis and markets will be deep red. But waiting is the difficult thing to do.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

SSI warriors have you been putting money where your mouth is by shorting the market like Ding Xie?

 

[churnmaster]

Since I don't do stock picking, I would just buy a fund or ETF. I look at Japan as a very defensive bet. It may not outperform other markets, but it will beat fixed income returns. More like 10-20% returns by end of 2020 as a base case scenario.

Defensive bet with 10-20% returns ... I like it. Do let us know when you start deploying your cash pile, we'll piggyback you

 

[DukeCS33]

Currency war is upon us. The USD/RMB rate has surged above 7 and this may well spark a round of competitive devaluation among exporting nations. In a sense, the Chinese are now open to using exchange rate as means to counter the effect of tariffs. The US would not sit idly by and one can be sure that Trump would pick this up and jaw bone the Fed to cut rates even further. This quiet currency war may well pop out into the open. I still think that the USD would end up being stronger unless the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. And as reluctant the Fed is, it may well be led by the Markets and by political forces to cut.
Bears should not be too happy so soon... while the sentiment has turned south, a rate cut would support the S&P and we may yet see another u - turn down the road.

 

[churnmaster]

ES3 is down 3.3% today. Did it go ex dividend or something

Yes, ex-dividend and also DBS ex-dividend

 

[NewInvestor]

The most difficult thing to do is sit on cash and not deploy it while watching the markets fall.

I wish someone can lock me away and my cash for 6 months. I am sure by then we will be in a full blown crisis and markets will be deep red. But waiting is the difficult thing to do.

Just sit on your hands and resist the itch hahaha

 

[DukeCS33]

Defensive bet with 10-20% returns ... I like it. Do let us know when you start deploying your cash pile, we'll piggyback you

The marco environment has not been conducive to exports and I have doubts about this "defensive" play. So far, when one looks at defensive play, one tend to see those investment vehicles as less impact by the global malaise affecting the wider stock market. Trade war is not good for an exporting nation like Japan.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I wish someone can lock me away and my cash for 6 months. I am sure by then we will be in a full blown crisis and markets will be deep red. But waiting is the difficult thing to do.

No, it's really not. Many brokerage platforms allow you to lodge a market buy order to execute on some future date. Today (as I write this) is August 5, 2019, and thus 6 months from now is February 5, 2020. Major financial markets will be open that day, a Wednesday. Just place a market buy order now to execute on February 5, 2020, then unplug your laptop and smartphone if you wish.

 

[churnmaster]

Lol revhappy got what he wished.......

He is standing by his container (full of cash) to buy now ...

 

[peacefulday]

Glad to see usd above 1.38 again

Currency war is upon us. The USD/RMB rate has surged above 7 and this may well spark a round of competitive devaluation among exporting nations. In a sense, the Chinese are now open to using exchange rate as means to counter the effect of tariffs. The US would not sit idly by and one can be sure that Trump would pick this up and jaw bone the Fed to cut rates even further. This quiet currency war may well pop out into the open. I still think that the USD would end up being stronger unless the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. And as reluctant the Fed is, it may well be led by the Markets and by political forces to cut.
Bears should not be too happy so soon... while the sentiment has turned south, a rate cut would support the S&P and we may yet see another u - turn down the road.

 

[churnmaster]

The most difficult thing to do is sit on cash and not deploy it while watching the markets fall.

I wish someone can lock me away and my cash for 6 months. I am sure by then we will be in a full blown crisis and markets will be deep red. But waiting is the difficult thing to do.

A35 up 0.6% today.

 

[coolhead]

Currency war is upon us. The USD/RMB rate has surged above 7 and this may well spark a round of competitive devaluation among exporting nations. In a sense, the Chinese are now open to using exchange rate as means to counter the effect of tariffs. The US would not sit idly by and one can be sure that Trump would pick this up and jaw bone the Fed to cut rates even further. This quiet currency war may well pop out into the open. I still think that the USD would end up being stronger unless the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. And as reluctant the Fed is, it may well be led by the Markets and by political forces to cut.
Bears should not be too happy so soon... while the sentiment has turned south, a rate cut would support the S&P and we may yet see another u - turn down the road.

I've no doubt it'll at most be a correction. Only when the spread between the 2year and 10year yield starts to narrow tightly that I'll be real afraid. There is still fuel for stock market to run up.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

I've no doubt it'll at most be a correction. Only when the spread between the 2year and 10year yield starts to narrow tightly that I'll be real afraid. There is still fuel for stock market to run up.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Yeah the 2 / 10s is my main indicator as well. The trick now is to catch that turning point.

 

[coolhead]

Yeah the 2 / 10s is my main indicator as well. The trick now is to catch that turning point.

My advisor, Erich Von manstein, agrees with you.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

The marco environment has not been conducive to exports and I have doubts about this "defensive" play. So far, when one looks at defensive play, one tend to see those investment vehicles as less impact by the global malaise affecting the wider stock market. Trade war is not good for an exporting nation like Japan.

I was just kidding ... I prefer large domestic driven economies rather than export driven, especially during this trade war.

 

[churnmaster]

Guys, any views on AUD/SGD ? Its currently in the 0.93-0.94 range and am getting tempted to buy some but not sure where to deploy the AUD. I dont want to buy any Australian property, so it has to be in some other asset.

 

[revhappy]

 

[revhappy]

The marco environment has not been conducive to exports and I have doubts about this "defensive" play. So far, when one looks at defensive play, one tend to see those investment vehicles as less impact by the global malaise affecting the wider stock market. Trade war is not good for an exporting nation like Japan.

Japan is actually not so much dependent on exports now. Exports is only 16% of GDP. In comparison Korea is 42%, which is why it is getting whacked.

City states like SG and HK is like 180 to 200% of GDP.