The bears den

[NewInvestor]

CNBC....

"There's more possibility of a breakthrough between the two sides," said Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid under the People's Daily.

Hu has been spot on with the recent developments in the escalated trade war. Most recently, he had warned about the Chinese retaliation just hours before China's official announcement.

A blog called Taoran Notes has been followed by analysts covering China and market participants for cues on the trade battle.
In a 1,200-word commentary, Taoran said it's "very likely" there will be "new developments" in the upcoming trade talks.

 

[Trader11]

Indecisive type cannot trade. In trading, especially in day trading, one needs to be quick and decisive and a moment of hesitation could often mean lost opportunity and the key difference between finishing in the green or red for the day.

It is important to follow rules.... All about having edges and probability

 

[littleredboy]

So true. I kick myself sometimes when I missed a signal.

Indecisive type cannot trade. In trading, especially in day trading, one needs to be quick and decisive and a moment of hesitation could often mean lost opportunity and the key difference between finishing in the green or red for the day.

 

[peterchan75]

So true. I kick myself sometimes when I missed a signal.

I go through 5000 US stocks after each trading day and I miss entry signal all the time. The most important thing is one's action when one is holding a position. Hold or cut. Taking profit too early is a lesser sin than holding on to a loser.

 

[DukeCS33]

I go through 5000 US stocks after each trading day and I miss entry signal all the time. The most important thing is one's action when one is holding a position. Hold or cut. Taking profit too early is a lesser sin than holding on to a loser.

I am guessing that the context was in relation to a stock that littleredboy was monitoring and his comments was about missing the entry on a stock that he was intending to trade when a valid signal comes along.

 

[littleredboy]

Yessu, both are right.

I only go through 3 to 5 futures a trading day. But sometimes because I was monitoring a specific one and waiting to click send, another futures could already have the signal but i missed it. Yesterday my eyes and fingers were busy on short gold and i forgot about indices!

And just after gold crash, oil went down a whole dollar! Didnt see the entry because I switched on my playstation!! *

Speed is of the essence but patience is a virtue. But yeah a blue bird in 1 hand is better than 2 blue birds in the bush

 

[DukeCS33]

It is important to follow rules.... All about having edges and probability

I am discretionary and interpretation is really dependant on my experience and tech skill set. Sometimes there is a very strong signal to buy but when the market is selling off strongly or at a tipping point, I would over ride those signals.... 70 % of all stocks would take the lead from the main index direction.

 

[Hello_Kitty]

seem like no bear in near future

 

[Trader11]

I am discretionary and interpretation is really dependant on my experience and tech skill set. Sometimes there is a very strong signal to buy but when the market is selling off strongly or at a tipping point, I would over ride those signals.... 70 % of all stocks would take the lead from the main index direction.

Do you follow rules and see if they are applicable in context? How do you know it is not your emotions affecting your decision?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Major manipulation at HKEX futures and options market yesterday.

I advise to stay out of China and Hong Kong markets until Oct 1st onwards.

 

[DukeCS33]

Do you follow rules and see if they are applicable in context? How do you know it is not your emotions affecting your decision?

I have come to a point where I am not afraid nor elated when I see a large win or loss. I trade within a certain size and which does not affect me. All these comes with experience... the traders that tend to get affected by emotions are the new ones or those playing with scared monies.... they are scared to lose and once you have that mentality, it would become a psychological barrier to trade effectively. In a way you may be right - maybe those "rules" are already etched into me psychologically and mentally and so I may be following some rules without explicitly putting them down as a system... and those rules come from having experienced those situations before but not being formalized into a set of system rules for trading.
Last night, I have a targeted short entry for a certain stock and if I were to follow the typical set of rules, I would not have made my targeted returns.... instead, I revised them halfway given the strong market opening … the price action suggested that the gains in the index may sustain. I did take my short entry profitably but played a reversal instead. There were a few considerations - the counter was in the consumer staples sector which was lagging the S&P and I thought it would resume its downside momentum from prior in a continuation play. And back to my prior point - if one plays it dead via systematic rules, he would not have made money on this trade. And if one is not able to master his emotions to the point of analysing and revising plans on the fly, he would not dare short anything in the face of a strong market rally.
There has been many comments in this forum about shorts and bears losing monies especially in a situation when the market is rallying... I only have one comment... you need to short the right stock and capitalise on the right moment to do so.

 

[littleredboy]

Ya i dont get why some people so happy to shoot shortists when market rallying. He short his business what, not as if he dunno what he's doing.

Snide remarks and being cynical achieves nothing, the good traders/shortists earning $$$ even though rally.

 

[Trader11]

Ya i dont get why some people so happy to shoot shortists when market rallying. He short his business what, not as if he dunno what he's doing.

Snide remarks and being cynical achieves nothing, the good traders/shortists earning $$$ even though rally.

Many people are Long here.... Lol that is why they hate shortists

 

[littleredboy]

i dont think anyone here can 下单until can shake the heavens move the earth type

And this is a bear's den thread leh lel.

Many people are Long here.... Lol that is why they hate shortists

 

[theMKR]

I have bynd 150 put ending 6sept.
So basically today market close will end so not very useful liao right?

So i should put order to purchase bynd at 148 (if it drops to that price). Then end of the day it will exercise and help me sell at 150 rite?

 

[Lasogette]

Ya i dont get why some people so happy to shoot shortists when market rallying. He short his business what, not as if he dunno what he's doing.

Snide remarks and being cynical achieves nothing, the good traders/shortists earning $$$ even though rally.

Most pple are long. That's why.

 

[Shiny Things]

I have bynd 150 put ending 6sept.
So basically today market close will end so not very useful liao right?

So i should put order to purchase bynd at 148 (if it drops to that price). Then end of the day it will exercise and help me sell at 150 rite?

Yep, this is exactly the way to trade a long option expiry.

If you're delta-hedged, it doesn't matter whether it's a call or a put; just park an order on the other side of the strike from where you currently are. If that order gets filled, reload an order on the (new) opposite side; lather, rinse, repeat until expiry.

That's how you capture the value embedded in an option's time decay.

 

[DukeCS33]

What do u think of the overseas REITs listed in sgx.eg Manulife, maple nac, etc......

Right now, I have no interest to touch any reits as I view valuations as too rich. The grind down would be slow - as the economy slows in both SG and US, the Fed would respond by cutting rates. Lower rates support Reits and make their relatively higher yields more attractive. However, a slow down may hit their DPU down the road. So until I see some form of capitulation in that sector or valuation coming to a level that is more sane, I would not touch them.

I have been involved with the Reits sector in an indirect manner prior in my career. I am very wary about how Reits manage their funding and risks. In my mind, most who hedge their interest rate risks have generally suffered from the opportunity cost of participating in low rates environment and get locked into a much higher cost for the tenor of their liabilities. But not hedging may see investors questioning them - and most CFOs are just quite clumsy in answering to these investors if they do not hedge and get questioned. (Easy way out is to hedge but is the hedge really benefiting the Reit? The interest rate curve would have factored in the future rates path at that point in time and the Reit end up paying an upfront negative carry) I have also read some analytics that have shown that most have not benefitted from their rate hedges.
The risk that needs to be hedged most is FX risk and this is something which tends to be harder to manage. As such, I would tend to be more careful with those with high exposure overseas.... I would favor those that have a well diversified portfolio and have their FX concentration risks reduced, or they have no FX risks on both translation and cash flows. I have seen how FX translation risk hits the Reits when they divested assets and how these have flown under the radar for most unsuspecting investors save those who knows how to spot such risks. The information is in the books but one needs to know how to look for it and interpret it.

 

[Lasogette]

Right now, I have no interest to touch any reits as I view valuations as too rich. The grind down would be slow - as the economy slows in both SG and US, the Fed would respond by cutting rates. Lower rates support Reits and make their relatively higher yields more attractive. However, a slow down may hit their DPU down the road. So until I see some form of capitulation in that sector or valuation coming to a level that is more sane, I would not touch them.

I have been involved with the Reits sector in an indirect manner prior in my career. I am very wary about how Reits manage their funding and risks. In my mind, most who hedge their interest rate risks have generally suffered from the opportunity cost of participating in low rates environment and get locked into a much higher cost for the tenor of their liabilities. But not hedging may see investors questioning them - and most CFOs are just quite clumsy in answering to these investors if they do not hedge and get questioned. (Easy way out is to hedge but is the hedge really benefiting the Reit? The interest rate curve would have factored in the future rates path at that point in time and the Reit end up paying an upfront negative carry) I have also read some analytics that have shown that most have not benefitted from their rate hedges.
The risk that needs to be hedged most is FX risk and this is something which tends to be harder to manage. As such, I would tend to be more careful with those with high exposure overseas.... I would favor those that have a well diversified portfolio and have their FX concentration risks reduced, or they have no FX risks on both translation and cash flows. I have seen how FX translation risk hits the Reits when they divested assets and how these have flown under the radar for most unsuspecting investors save those who knows how to spot such risks. The information is in the books but one needs to know how to look for it and interpret it.

Thanks for the detailed and informational reply.

 

[Trader11]

Reits and ETFs are going to become negative black swans for most people