The bears den

[coolhead]

When the 10Y UST yield dropped towards 1.5% level in early Aug, the move appeared overdone, with the talk about negative interest rates in the US in near future.

Now, with the fed signalling a pause after 3 rate cuts, we are seeing some sanity in the UST market, which is a good thing.

I do hope so...I do hope so.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

The sensible thing to do is not to trade options. Retail investors do not have the edge in option trading as they are subject to wider spreads.

Option is just an instrument. I agree, they should not be used for trading. Rather for investing.

 

[DukeCS33]

Option is just an instrument. I agree, they should not be used for trading. Rather for investing.

No difference whether they are for investing or trading. The retail investor or trader has no edge when it comes to option pricing and without that edge, the retail player is just playing a losing game. I am not sure how to explain this lack of edge in a layman manner but if you look at option pricing spreads - eg if you think that Apple which is priced at $260 now will run up to $261, You can buy a call on apple 1mth at a strike of current price at 260 or buy a physical share of apple at 260. If Apple performs as expected within 1 min of your entry trade, and you close out the trade, what is the bid offer price that you are subject to? Is the option bid offer spread wider than the bid offer spread of your 1 physical share? So where is your edge?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

HSI Bloodbath

HSI having bloodbath now.

I want to see which SSI bull warriors will put the money where their mouth is by buying the dip!

 

[limster]

HSI having bloodbath now.

I want to see which SSI bull warriors will put the money where their mouth is by buying the dip!

I dont know why so many people say HSI is crashing/bloodbath whatever, when the current HSI level is still higher than the January 2019 level. If HSI doesn't even hit a 12-month low, Its nothing much really....

Like I've said before, if HSI approaches the January 2019 levels (which is only earlier this year), I'm definitely a buyer!

 

[churnmaster]

Profit booking in S REITS today.

 

[Mecisteus]

HSI having bloodbath now.

I want to see which SSI bull warriors will put the money where their mouth is by buying the dip!

Down by 2+% only.

Not attractive enough.

 

[DukeCS33]

Profit booking in S REITS today.

The high volume sell off is suggestive that there is more than profit taking selling in some of the Reits with HK content. Seems like a combo of factors - higher 10y US yields and escalating violence in HK coming together in a perfect storm.

 

[DukeCS33]

I dont know why so many people say HSI is crashing/bloodbath whatever, when the current HSI level is still higher than the January 2019 level. If HSI doesn't even hit a 12-month low, Its nothing much really....

Like I've said before, if HSI approaches the January 2019 levels (which is only earlier this year), I'm definitely a buyer!

down so little... hardly a splash let along a bloodbath.

 

[churnmaster]

The high volume sell off is suggestive that there is more than profit taking selling in some of the Reits with HK content. Seems like a combo of factors - higher 10y US yields and escalating violence in HK coming together in a perfect storm.

Yes, even I think so. In fact, the S REIT 20 index chart shows a double top. A35 also turning lower over last few days with rise in yields.

 

[churnmaster]

No difference whether they are for investing or trading. The retail investor or trader has no edge when it comes to option pricing and without that edge, the retail player is just playing a losing game. I am not sure how to explain this lack of edge in a layman manner but if you look at option pricing spreads - eg if you think that Apple which is priced at $260 now will run up to $261, You can buy a call on apple 1mth at a strike of current price at 260 or buy a physical share of apple at 260. If Apple performs as expected within 1 min of your entry trade, and you close out the trade, what is the bid offer price that you are subject to? Is the option bid offer spread wider than the bid offer spread of your 1 physical share? So where is your edge?

Yes, you are right in saying the bid/offer spread is wider for options as compared to its underlying especially if its ATM. However, the spreads are narrower for OTM options for liquid contracts like SPY. Off course, you still need to figure out which contract month, particular expiry day for that month and most importantly strike price. You want to trade only the most liquid (in terms of OI and Vol) strike prices. Once, you take care of that, I don't think you are much worse off.

 

[ccostagmont]

Buy REITs now!!!
Very cheap...

Sent from Samsung SM-A307GN using GAGT

 

[Shiny Things]

when will us stock market change back to 930pm again...?

First week of March 2020.

 

[peipei1]

It's pretty high now. You sure you wanna add?

Iwda broke 61! Last night was pretty furious gains! My ibkr account is up 26% since joining for 2 years!

Is greed levels at highest now when bad news are still happening and trade war unresolved? Today we just learn senoko may join hyflux!

 

[weng0202]

Iwda broke 61! Last night was pretty furious gains! My ibkr account is up 26% since joining for 2 years!

Is greed levels at highest now when bad news are still happening and trade war unresolved? Today we just learn senoko may join hyflux!

There is no basis for this rally, just hope that the trade deal will be done and then hopefully the economy will recover. So I don't buy this rally.

 

[Mecisteus]

There is no basis for this rally, just hope that the trade deal will be done and then hopefully the economy will recover. So I don't buy this rally.

From the beginning of this thread, revhappy also did not buy into this rally.

Now US market is at extreme greed level. The appropriate course of action is to hold or sell a little.

 

[d9_lives]

It's "too high" in beg. 2019. What about now?
How're the people who got scared by noises and listened to doom prophets doing?

 

[tesarise]

if someone bought into IWDA when revhappy started this thread ,they will be sitting at about a tidy 10% gain.

 

[chrisloh65]

In investing, you have to look at at least 20 years horizon.

Won't be surprised that the same person sitting at tidy 10% gain now could be looking at >35% losses or even 50% losses 2 years down the road!

if someone bought into IWDA when revhappy started this thread ,they will be sitting at about a tidy 10% gain.

 

[SBC]

if someone bought into IWDA when revhappy started this thread ,they will be sitting at about a tidy 10% gain.

TS will be rite 1 fine day.