The bears den

[revhappy]

Saxo seems to have upgraded my account to platinum.

I see commissions halved and also the financing rate is much lower.

 

[revhappy]

Macro wise, I do not like that tariffs have not been rolled back and that rolling back taxes would be considered only after US elections under phrase 2. In so far as no new tensions flare up, there should not be a reason for any drastic sell off. Fed action should still continue to be supportive.

It is earnings season and this would be a bigger driver for the markets. We have a backdrop of liquidity supporting the Markets but if valuations get over stretched (either because earnings taper off or prices run away from here) then we may expect a pull back. So I think it is still going to trade cautiously higher though I see buying momentum easing somewhat - there is no supply as yet so this gradual grind higher may continue.

I am doing abit more swing now but intraday momentum trades would still be my main play. Stocks such as ALB, BAM, CGC which have been consolidating, have made some strong momentum push higher over the last 2 days - I find that this type of technical setups give me the quick intraday results that I like and allow me to carry a portion for swings. So this is my main strategy.

Thanks! Appreciate it.

 

[DukeCS33]

Thanks! Appreciate it.

I have just finished a review of my trades last year and found that 80% of my losses could have been avoided if I widened my stops. My strategy was focussed on momentum moves that are aligned to both the intermediate and the 6mth trend. So while I widened my stops later half of last year, I still found that the stops were triggered before my stock picks traded along the trend. This applies for both long and short trades. So I am going to tweak my strategy this year and am stepping out of my comfort zone in not putting any stops or putting a 5% hard stop to guard against trend change. That means moving more into swing to justify the risk reward ratio.

 

[Kapish]

hmmm seems like the correction didn't happen

 

[DukeCS33]

hmmm seems like the correction didn't happen

This can just grind higher until we have a next shock or catalyst.

As long as there is a trend, I am happy. The worse case is a non trending, choppy market.

 

[buaytuckchek]

What happened today? Seems blood bath.

 

[Mecisteus]

What happened today? Seems blood bath.

Must be the virus news.

Anyway, US market needs some correction.

It is at extreme overbought or greed level now.

 

[DukeCS33]

Must be the virus news.

Anyway, US market needs some correction.

It is at extreme overbought or greed level now.

This coronavirus is going to strike fear into the Markets. Look at what SARS did and with the Chinese about to embark on one of the largest annual travel, the fear is that this virus spread. There is little information about this disease and Markets just do not like the unknown. There is a chance that we do not get a correction but a major sell off if the virus spread.

The standard play book is out. I am now going short and would ride them until we have a positive turn of events.

In the Sing market, the froth in the reits sector may well get skimmed off.

 

[Mecisteus]

This coronavirus is going to strike fear into the Markets. Look at what SARS did and with the Chinese about to embark on one of the largest annual travel, the fear is that this virus spread. There is little information about this disease and Markets just do not like the unknown. There is a chance that we do not get a correction but a major sell off if the virus spread.

The standard play book is out. I am now going short and would ride them until we have a positive turn of events.

In the Sing market, the froth in the reits sector may well get skimmed off.

Yes market doesn't like uncertainty.

This virus is a big unknown. US market will just use this as a reason to correct or sell off.

Anyway, I have been reducing my equities allocation for past 6-7 months. So I'm ready to buy back.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yes market doesn't like uncertainty.

This virus is a big unknown. US market will just use this as a reason to correct or sell off.

Anyway, I have been reducing my equities allocation for past 6-7 months. So I'm ready to buy back.

My only reservation is that the virus gets contained in Asia and does not spread to the US. Sell off may be short lived since we are still living in a world flush with liquidity. However, I am still staking a short position and would increase it if the market reacts more violently.

 

[weng0202]

I have a feeling the impact won't be great since it is "SARS" like and we have encountered it before. So unlikely will have the same effect as it did so in 2003.

 

[DukeCS33]

I have a feeling the impact won't be great since it is "SARS" like and we have encountered it before. So unlikely will have the same effect as it did so in 2003.

I am not medically trained but it is proven that human to human transmission is possible and therefore contagious. Markets may react in a fashion similar to SARS if it is not contained.... people will hole up at home and not go out and the economy may be hit.

 

[weng0202]

I am not medically trained but it is proven that human to human transmission is possible and therefore contagious. Markets may react in a fashion similar to SARS if it is not contained.... people will hole up at home and not go out and the economy may be hit.

So far not much info on how deadly it is. Let's just watch and see. But a good time to pick up stocks that have fallen.

 

[DukeCS33]

So far not much info on how deadly it is. Let's just watch and see. But a good time to pick up stocks that have fallen.

6 confirmed death and reports of its contagion is enough to tell me that it is not a threat to take lightly. We also do not know how transparent China may be - they were hiding numbers during the initial stages of SARs.
I am not a position taker but more a momentum trader in this... but if a stock experiences a climatic sell off, I may take it.

 

[Newbyib]

6 confirmed death and reports of its contagion is enough to tell me that it is not a threat to take lightly. We also do not know how transparent China may be - they were hiding numbers during the initial stages of SARs.
I am not a position taker but more a momentum trader in this... but if a stock experiences a climatic sell off, I may take it.

I have mostly collared my positions and waiting for expiry for the realisation of full amount of profits.
Likewise I am initiating positions that could catch the dive if it happens.

 

[JustDoLor]

How serious is it? Still early stage mah...., only time can tell.....

China and Asia market will crash after CNY reopen ah? The bear den thread is not active since 22nd leh.... all on silent standby to ambush ....LOL

Ah... ok my opinion can change lah, let see how market reacts....

 

[greyice]

I have mostly collared my positions and waiting for expiry for the realisation of full amount of profits.
Likewise I am initiating positions that could catch the dive if it happens.

Which stock sector will dive first?

 

[DukeCS33]

How serious is it? Still early stage mah...., only time can tell.....

China and Asia market will crash after CNY reopen ah? The bear den thread is not active since 22nd leh.... all on silent standby to ambush ....LOL

Ah... ok my opinion can change lah, let see how market reacts....

Were you old enough to experience or remember what happened during the SARs period? So do not say it is early stages... When it comes to a health scare or lives, nothing is too early.

 

[DukeCS33]

Which stock sector will dive first?

Short YUMC.
Airlines and restaurants esp those with major operations in China will take direct hit

 

[Kapish]

now CNY don't be so negative lah
resume your bear posts tomorrow