USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[homer123]

Those who subscribe to value investing have a lot of difficulty accepting US stock valuations much less crypto.

Someone from another forum gave advice to master Leong

I have watched many Master Leong videos and digested many important lessons on investing especially useful are the deep dives into various companies.

My goal is to make money in the markets whatever works i am open to it. But everything i learn i check using data and analysis. There is nothing i believe without sufficient data and research.

In the end Master Leong declare "I am a value investor. I am.a global investor". Being a value investor is a means to an end. But not the only means to the end. Almost every thing Master Leong criticise US stocks, Tesla, Bitcoin, Nvidia, etc all rose to new highs and to the most profitable investments while his main investment in Alibaba had gone horribly wrong.

Lets get it clear we are now judgung something on hindsight so its not fair to the Master. The bubbles in Bitcoin, Nasdaq could have popped and China's leaders could have navigated tue economic morass lifting Alibaba and the likes to new heights. But things turn out to be reverse. What does it show?

It shows us the difficulty of predicting the markets. It is not the business of value investors to engage in predictions....worse still bet on it...

"The market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent".

In the current environment of financial nihilism, where an everything bubble is forming an intelligent speculator can make quick money following the money and having good exit plans. It is not the business of value investors to criticise this approach. People have made and lost fortunes on it ...and it can work for the smart and nimble . One is perhaps too arrogant and thinks to highly of himself to believe he holds the Holy Grail and all others are on their way to doom.

Value investing has no certainty in the short term and even medium term. Buffet has under performed S&P500 for several years. His Mentor was asked what makes value investing works in a congressional hearing ....why would undervalued stocks be restored to fair value. He said he does mot know exactly and how long it takes. Graham also lost all his clients money when under valued stock went bankrupt under strain of.economic depression. So there is uncertainty and limitations of this methodology.

 

[limster]

It shows us the difficulty of predicting the markets. It is not the business of value investors to engage in predictions...
....
It is not the business of value investors to criticise this approach.

I agree with this. I prefer to share my investing approach and don't judge others who have a different approach. There are many different ways to make money.

At the same time I have been trying out this short term trading thing. It is not easy to make money so hats off to those that can do it sustainably. Need to get more trading ideas

But mainly, I'll just follow the other dividend investors who are collecting record dividends in 2024.

 

[TerryPower]

Someone from another forum gave advice to master Leong

sounds like master leong is the scrabby of stocks and shares

those from edmw will know what scrabby means

 

[aurvandil]

Bulls say now we are in early-mid 90s leading to dotcom bust
So old valuation methodology irrelevant liao

It is hard to tell where we are in the cycle.What is making me nervous now is the general lack of hedging as measured by the VIX. Hence even as I heavily long delta, I also have stops and short hedges

As I wrote before, my trading philosophy is that it is always better to earn less than to lose money. I therefore sacrifice some upside in return for an asymmetric return when the pullback happens.

 

[d5dude]

Bulls say now we are in early-mid 90s leading to dotcom bust
So old valuation methodology irrelevant liao

Its not irrelevant, there are tons of low p/e names in the us market too, these are companies that are either in terminal decline or long term stagnation, the market isn’t going to reward these with higher multiples. Also US corps in general have always been more expensive than Chinese companies, much of it has to do with profitability, ROE is 2x that of Chinese companies.

I think the market looks generally fairly valued, many US companies are beginning to report higher margins due to AI implementation (as I predicted 2 years ago) the multiple expansion this yr looks justified. Of course there are pockets of bubbles in the market, but this is normal in a bull market. Just avoid the 50x revenue stocks to be safe.

 

[d5dude]

Someone from another forum gave advice to master Leong

Leong got caught in a value trap but he doesn’t want to admit he made a mistake.

 

[aurvandil]

I agree with this. I prefer to share my investing approach and don't judge others who have a different approach. There are many different ways to make money.

At the same time I have been trying out this short term trading thing. It is not easy to make money so hats off to those that can do it sustainably. Need to get more trading ideas

But mainly, I'll just follow the other dividend investors who are collecting record dividends in 2024.

I enjoying studying and understanding what others are doing. This is especially those on the opposite side of the trade from me. I them assimilate things which I find useful into my own trades.

 

[DevilPlate]

Its not irrelevant, there are tons of low p/e names in the us market too, these are companies that are either in terminal decline or long term stagnation, the market isn’t going to reward these with higher multiples. Also US corps in general have always been more expensive than Chinese companies, much of it has to do with profitability, ROE is 2x that of Chinese companies.

I think the market looks generally fairly valued, many US companies are beginning to report higher margins due to AI implementation (as I predicted 2 years ago) the multiple expansion this yr looks justified. Of course there are pockets of bubbles in the market, but this is normal in a bull market. Just avoid the 50x revenue stocks to be safe.

Isn’t it the same as saying valuation method like simi historical median PE ratio etc is irrelevant?

 

[DevilPlate]

I agree with this. I prefer to share my investing approach and don't judge others who have a different approach. There are many different ways to make money.

At the same time I have been trying out this short term trading thing. It is not easy to make money so hats off to those that can do it sustainably. Need to get more trading ideas

But mainly, I'll just follow the other dividend investors who are collecting record dividends in 2024.

Ya la….js keep an open mind and be happy instead of being sour when others make money (since u don’t lose a piece of meat anyway)

 

[aurvandil]

Isn’t it the same as saying valuation method like simi historical median PE ratio etc is irrelevant?

A number is only relevant if the market is watching it. It becomes irrelevant if no one is paying attention to it.

 

[d5dude]

Isn’t it the same as saying valuation method like simi historical median PE ratio etc is irrelevant?

Maybe irrelevant in the short run but some form of mean reversion at some point is a certainty, we are not in some kind of new paradigm where valuations will no longer matter ever again. In fact a correction just happened in 2022, many stocks trading at 30-50x revenue were destroyed.

 

[DevilPlate]

Maybe irrelevant in the short run but some form of mean reversion at some point is a certainty, we are not in some kind of new paradigm where valuations will no longer matter ever again. In fact a correction just happened in 2022, many stocks trading at 30-50x revenue were destroyed.

Yes ofc, it doesn’t matter until something poke it.

 

[DevilPlate]

A number is only relevant if the market is watching it. It becomes irrelevant if no one is paying attention to it.

Whats your hypothesis that Warren Buffet is selling his BOA?

 

[aurvandil]

Whats your hypothesis that Warren Buffet is selling his BOA?

If you look at his recent performance, he missed out on most of the covid rally.

When the inflation / interest rate crash occurred, it looked like he might have hit a home run. The V shaped recovery however resulted in him being caught wrong footed again.

During the SVB crisis, it looked like there might be room for him to play hero like in 2008. The actions by the FED however left him without any significant asset acquisition.

Berkshire only managed it's good performance because of his outsized 60% to 70% exposure to Apple. If you strip that away, the performance has been mediocre at best.

Every player has his time. Buffet remains a giant to be sure and deserves the respect of being the best of his generation. That being said, no point treating him as having supernatural insight beyond what the market is saying.

 

[yslvlys]

I found another power stock. But mon night after I enter then I share. Else all cheong to buy then I hong gan.

So u bought already? Which stock is it?

 

[init00]

https://news.satnews.com/2024/12/09...ket-labs-latest-suborbital-hypersonic-launch/

Good news? Skyrocket tonight?

 

[TerryPower]

Yesterday US shares preparing for 12/12 sales

So many in the red

 

[yslvlys]

Bought some UBER yesterday

 

[limster]

So u bought already? Which stock is it?

how come no news?

 

[TerryPower]

NVDA is under 50 days moving average

Is it time to get in? Or is the hype finally dead/dying?