USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

stanlawj

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SOFI's decline is due to private credit sector breaking down.
Biggest Private credit players:
OWL -5%
ARES -3.65%
CG -3.14%
KKR -2%

Relationship between SOFI, AFRM with private credit:
  • Private credit faces emerging issues in older deals from the market's rapid growth, with Oaktree Capital noting potential portfolio problems without systemic risks.
  • The $1.7 trillion industry shows bubble-like traits after booming in a low-rate environment, leading to untested resilience amid higher rates.
  • Recent volatility in private credit debt issuance reached $17 billion in Q2 2025, but challenges like public market swings are surfacing.
  • Affirm relies on private credit for funding, with deals like $3 billion from PGIM and $4 billion from Sixth Street to support loan sales and originations.
  • SoFi uses private credit for loan platform growth, securing $2 billion from Fortress and $3.2 billion expansions to meet borrower demand.
  • Cracks in private credit could increase funding costs for Affirm, reducing its ability to scale buy-now-pay-later offerings and pressuring margins.
  • For SoFi, tighter private credit availability might limit personal loan expansions, impacting revenue growth amid its shift to less capital-intensive models.
  • Broader private credit strains may heighten scrutiny on fintech lending risks, potentially affecting Affirm and SoFi's stock valuations if defaults rise.
 
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Dividends Warrior

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Your BTD is validated by Shay Baloor.
Anthropic is likely to give AWS a boost in the coming quarters.

image-285.png
 

sansanjikikut

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Anyone got new small cap alpha to share? Looking at industrial, space and software infra industry

drones and evtol next ?
 

stanlawj

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If the govt shutdown succeeds in getting DOGE 2.0, yields on UST will crater. REITS will do very well.

G2OQePPWkAAJxY3
 

elvintay07

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If the govt shutdown succeeds in getting DOGE 2.0, yields on UST will crater. REITS will do very well.

G2OQePPWkAAJxY3
Likely like XJP. Flush out oppositions. Haha! Then ownself put ownself ppl and huat big big. Short term, xiaolang Trump will cause pain to the stock market.
 

elvintay07

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While US is rather flat, I made 20-30% figures n hk thanks for Master Leong. Haha! Gg to ride this ride wave up to 100% then sell off everything. Huat ah!
 

elvintay07

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From Jan (Deepseek) till now, my US profit near 3000 USD

But if I convert all my USD to SGD, profit is less than 2500 SGD

Wah lao leh! USD got so weak meh?
How can it be huh? Tio Jiak or software glitch? But if convert in 2050, i am not surprised left only left $1000
 

stanlawj

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8% of Warren Buffett's BRK is comprised of Coca-Cola.
Now Buffett is going to lose money.

 
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