USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

8% of Warren Buffett's BRK is comprised of Coca-Cola.
Now Buffett is going to lose money.

Forget about Buffet liao.

Now Tom Lee is the new GOAT

 

[yslvlys]

From Jan (Deepseek) till now, my US profit near 3000 USD

But if I convert all my USD to SGD, profit is less than 2500 SGD

Wah lao leh! USD got so weak meh?

Not possible? Worst case shd be at least 3ksgd not less...

 

[DevilPlate]

Not possible? Worst case shd be at least 3ksgd not less...

all depends the exchange rate he change liao

could be close to 1.37? but then his Maths also salah but u get the idea

 

[TerryPower]

I changed 26k SGD to USD in Jan 2025

Then I bought NVDA in Jan and kept until a few months later with realized gains of 2500+ USD

Then I use my USD to play US Stock Options and earn like 300+ USD

My gains are 2900+ USD (it’s near 3k)

But if I change all my USD to SGD, it’s less than 29k SGD

 

[yslvlys]

all depends the exchange rate he change liao

could be close to 1.37? but then his Maths also salah but u get the idea

Haha he said 3000usd become 2.5ksgd. That means SGD stronger than USD. Not possible for now, maybe 5 years later. Or he typo.

 

[DevilPlate]

I changed 26k SGD to USD in Jan 2025

Then I bought NVDA in Jan and kept until a few months later with realized gains of 2500+ USD

Then I use my USD to play US Stock Options and earn like 300+ USD

My gains are 2900+ USD (it’s near 3k)

But if I change all my USD to SGD, it’s less than 29k SGD

confirm lesser lah due to around 6-7% USD currency depreciation.

 

[elvintay07]

I changed 26k SGD to USD in Jan 2025

Then I bought NVDA in Jan and kept until a few months later with realized gains of 2500+ USD

Then I use my USD to play US Stock Options and earn like 300+ USD

My gains are 2900+ USD (it’s near 3k)

But if I change all my USD to SGD, it’s less than 29k SGD

Means you lose some money but you don’t know. Haha

 

[wutawa]

I changed 26k SGD to USD in Jan 2025

Then I bought NVDA in Jan and kept until a few months later with realized gains of 2500+ USD

Then I use my USD to play US Stock Options and earn like 300+ USD

My gains are 2900+ USD (it’s near 3k)

But if I change all my USD to SGD, it’s less than 29k SGD

r u using your platform usd-sgd FX rate or just using the Google rate? if u using Google rate, you will be getting even less than your calc.

 

[tazzycorner]

Forget about Buffet liao.

Now Tom Lee is the new GOAT

indeed

even Cathie jie is doing much better than the veteran in current market

 

[stanlawj]

Conservative targets for BMNR, written by AI:

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) could see its valuation soar to $13.2B–$14.7B ($76.51–$85.01/share) if ETH hits $5,300 and BTC reaches $135,000, driven by its 2.65M ETH treasury and 192 BTC holdings.

With a 0.9x NAV premium, the base case stock price of $76.51 marks a ~43% jump from $53.514, boosted by staking yields and mining revenue. Risks like dilution or crypto volatility remain, but BMNR’s Ethereum bet positions it for significant upside.

NAV premium possibilities hinge on market sentiment amid a crypto bull run: a conservative 0.8x could yield $11.7B ($67.95/share), while a neutral 1.0x pushes to $14.7B ($85.01/share). If optimism drives it to 1.2x, valuation could hit $17.6B ($102.01/share), underscoring BMNR's amplified upside from ETH/BTC surges.

--------
IBKR requires 100% margin to buy and hold BMNR, i.e. no leverage.
The only leveraged option is BMNU (2X daily long BMNR), just launched on 26 Sept.
-------
BTW, I don't believe in BTC $1M this cycle. Just up to $135k. See below:

Written by AI:
During Bitcoin's historical bull market peaks, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (ounces of gold equivalent per BTC, calculated as BTC price divided by gold spot price per ounce) has shown a pattern of significant growth across cycles:

• 2013 peak (late November): Approximately 0.9–1 ounce, as BTC reached around $1,150–1,200 while gold traded near $1,200–1,250/oz.
• 2017 peak (mid-December): Approximately 15–16 ounces, with BTC at ~$19,500 and gold around $1,250/oz.
• 2021 peak (early November): Approximately 35–37 ounces, as BTC hit ~$68,000 while gold was near $1,850–1,900/oz.

This ratio has multiplied roughly 15–40x between early and later cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's increasing adoption and decoupling from gold as a store of value during bull phases. The most recent bull market (2021) provides the strongest benchmark for projection, as earlier cycles had lower maturity and liquidity.

Using the 2021 peak ratio of ~36 ounces as a conservative historical reference for a future bull market, when gold reaches $3,900/oz, Bitcoin's price would project to approximately $140,400 (36 × 3,900). If the ratio expands further (e.g., to 40+ ounces, aligning with recent cycle trends toward higher multiples), BTC could exceed $150,000–$160,000. Note that actual outcomes depend on macroeconomic factors, adoption rates, and market cycles, and ratios can fluctuate post-peak.

 

[DevilPlate]

Conservative targets for BMNR, written by AI:

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) could see its valuation soar to $13.2B–$14.7B ($76.51–$85.01/share) if ETH hits $5,300 and BTC reaches $135,000, driven by its 2.65M ETH treasury and 192 BTC holdings.

With a 0.9x NAV premium, the base case stock price of $76.51 marks a ~43% jump from $53.514, boosted by staking yields and mining revenue. Risks like dilution or crypto volatility remain, but BMNR’s Ethereum bet positions it for significant upside.

NAV premium possibilities hinge on market sentiment amid a crypto bull run: a conservative 0.8x could yield $11.7B ($67.95/share), while a neutral 1.0x pushes to $14.7B ($85.01/share). If optimism drives it to 1.2x, valuation could hit $17.6B ($102.01/share), underscoring BMNR's amplified upside from ETH/BTC surges.

--------
IBKR requires 100% margin to buy and hold BMNR, i.e. no leverage.
The only leveraged option is BMNU (2X daily long BMNR), just launched on 26 Sept.
-------
BTW, I don't believe in BTC $1M this cycle. Just up to $135k. See below:

Written by AI:
During Bitcoin's historical bull market peaks, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (ounces of gold equivalent per BTC, calculated as BTC price divided by gold spot price per ounce) has shown a pattern of significant growth across cycles:

• 2013 peak (late November): Approximately 0.9–1 ounce, as BTC reached around $1,150–1,200 while gold traded near $1,200–1,250/oz.
• 2017 peak (mid-December): Approximately 15–16 ounces, with BTC at ~$19,500 and gold around $1,250/oz.
• 2021 peak (early November): Approximately 35–37 ounces, as BTC hit ~$68,000 while gold was near $1,850–1,900/oz.

This ratio has multiplied roughly 15–40x between early and later cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's increasing adoption and decoupling from gold as a store of value during bull phases. The most recent bull market (2021) provides the strongest benchmark for projection, as earlier cycles had lower maturity and liquidity.

Using the 2021 peak ratio of ~36 ounces as a conservative historical reference for a future bull market, when gold reaches $3,900/oz, Bitcoin's price would project to approximately $140,400 (36 × 3,900). If the ratio expands further (e.g., to 40+ ounces, aligning with recent cycle trends toward higher multiples), BTC could exceed $150,000–$160,000. Note that actual outcomes depend on macroeconomic factors, adoption rates, and market cycles, and ratios can fluctuate post-peak.

ChatGPT will not give proper analysis for these crypto treasury companies.
As long Tom Lee can keep selling shares at a premium (above NAV), it will be accretive. (Meaning increasing ether/share despite share dilution)

As for BTC cycle…..i think the usual 4yr cycle is broken liao. Nobody knows when will be the next cycle and all the predictions online is as good as building castles in the air

 

[Jirachi]

SOFI going down hard and diverging significantly from HOOD after HOOD's inclusion into SP500 index.
One of them is obviously wrong.

S&P Global literally added a stock which the company is getting endless class action lawsuits.

 

[Jirachi]

Shay votes for SOFI !



Refer to my previous comment:

I don't know why people whom I blocked on Twitter always get reposted on forums, Discord where I visit.

 

[Jirachi]

From Jan (Deepseek) till now, my US profit near 3000 USD

But if I convert all my USD to SGD, profit is less than 2500 SGD

Wah lao leh! USD got so weak meh?

Do you really need the money now? Just wait for MAS action on 14 October. Strong SGD is going to kill a lot of employment paid outside of SGD in Singapore.

 

[Jirachi]

Now Tom Lee is the new GOAT

Wait till the actual bear market comes, which likely might not even come

 

[Jirachi]

I changed 26k SGD to USD in Jan 2025

Then I bought NVDA in Jan and kept until a few months later with realized gains of 2500+ USD

Then I use my USD to play US Stock Options and earn like 300+ USD

My gains are 2900+ USD (it’s near 3k)

But if I change all my USD to SGD, it’s less than 29k SGD

1.28 to 1.37

SGD +6.5%

Math like don't tally also

 

[stanlawj]

As for BTC cycle…..i think the usual 4yr cycle is broken liao. Nobody knows when will be the next cycle and all the predictions online is as good as building castles in the air

I heard such an argument back in 2022 during BTC bear market and believed in it. Then it turned out to be so wrong!

 

[DevilPlate]

Wait till the actual bear market comes, which likely might not even come

Bull will be right 70-80% of the time

 

[DevilPlate]

I heard such an argument back in 2022 during BTC bear market and believed in it. Then it turned out to be so wrong!

That time no Trump lah….Biden was anti-crypto

I dare to say 4yr cycle is broken due to Trump admin plus crypto Etf

 

[yslvlys]

I don't know why people whom I blocked on Twitter always get reposted on forums, Discord where I visit.

U blocked Shay Baloor? Why?