USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[yslvlys]

Wtf Just happened? This is the biggest rise in my portfolio in a day ever! 7%+!

Edit: now 8%+

 

[yslvlys]

Woke up to a red US market. Setting some buy queues tonight.
Never let a crisis go to waste!

U managed to buy some during market open?

 

[davonir]

This is a trap. Market internals is very bad. Get out (of longs) before the chance disappears. The market will still float a bit higher but be prepared for the crash hereafter.

This is a combination of short squeeze with a combination of the Fed bidding on its own 10 year treasury auctions.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250409_2.pdf

You have been warned.

 

[Jirachi]

I’m up 20% in 5 minutes.

 

[Jirachi]

This is a trap. Market internals is very bad. Get out (of longs) before the chance disappears. The market will still float a bit higher but be prepared for the crash hereafter.

This is a combination of short squeeze with a combination of the Fed bidding on its own 10 year treasury auctions.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250409_2.pdf

You have been warned.

This auction result lead to market going higher just before Trump’s announcement.

It was a relief because the 10Y auction was heavily bidded by international buyers. The fear was subdued

 

[davonir]

This auction result lead to market going higher just before Trump’s announcement.

It was a relief because the 10Y auction was heavily bidded by international buyers. The fear was subdued

Sure, if you really know what you're talking about. That 2.88% auction low is a big red flag if you know how it works. As I said, this is the Fed basically bidding on its own auction to let it appear that there is a big interest from international buyers.

The manipulated 10 year auction results combined with today's rise in short interests caused this rally.

As I said, this is not the time to pile into longs, it's a relief rally (or bear market rally) and a time for buyers to get out. The indices will still float a bit higher before crashing later. It just takes a leak or two of what actually Trump will be doing soon for the crash to happen.

In bear markets, relief rallies are common. It doesn't mean its a true reflection that the markets have turned bullish.

 

[Nevereatrice]

This is a trap. Market internals is very bad. Get out (of longs) before the chance disappears. The market will still float a bit higher but be prepared for the crash hereafter.

This is a combination of short squeeze with a combination of the Fed bidding on its own 10 year treasury auctions.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250409_2.pdf

You have been warned.

any proof on the accusation fed buying its own debt?

 

[mooseolly]

This is a trap. Market internals is very bad. Get out (of longs) before the chance disappears. The market will still float a bit higher but be prepared for the crash hereafter.

This is a combination of short squeeze with a combination of the Fed bidding on its own 10 year treasury auctions.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250409_2.pdf

You have been warned.

You seemed to be very experienced, what is your main account?

 

[elvintay07]

Wa! Power up sia. I think bears crying single day. Haha

 

[mooseolly]

What I mean is that the US stock market is going to drop another double-digit %. Trump admin and Powell both know the immediate consequences, so they are deliberately allowing the bomb to detonate.

I'm waiting for my beloved COMEX silver to crash.... too many speculators holding paper silver need to be washed out through a deleveraging event. Silver now pumping higher,... really perfect.

Actually do you even buy or short US stocks? Always see you trade metals and China.

 

[davonir]

You seemed to be very experienced, what is your main account?

This is my one and only account. I don't spend much time on this forum, only as a lurker and occasional poster.

 

[d9lives]

Woke up to +26.79% increase!!
I facking knew it trump'd blink but I didn't have the money to buy. Super emo.

 

[aurvandil]

My 2 cents worth on what is going on.

The 90 day pause confirms that the policy intent is to contain China. The crazy Liberation Day WWE style antics was to put the world on notice that if you let China use your jurisdiction to evade tariffs, the US will come for you. A lot has been said about the inclusion of Heard and McDonald islands in Trump's tariff list. Many have pointed to it as a mistake and a sign that a generative AI was used to make the chart. My take is that this was intentional. It wa to send the message that no matter how remote the location, the US is watching.

The next step to confirm this hypothesis are the policy demands that the US will make. If these involve safeguards to stop Chinese tariff evasion, it would further confirm the policy intent. For SG, we better be super on the ball. There are 195 countries in the world. Trump chose to highlight 50. Taking away the nonsensical entries like Heard and McDonald islands, it would seem that the chart he was holding up was shortlist of countries that they feel are most involved in the China tariff evasion trade. If we want to avoid being targeted, we better play ball and do what the US wants.

On China, the situation is interesting. Conventional commentary suggests that China will not back down. In another thread before all this happened, I wrote about how there are signs that XJP has lost control of the PLA to ZYX. On the civilian side, most of the factions are looking to the 3 elders for directions. The end game is for XJP to step down and for a new leader to take over after his current term ends. There is now a Game of Thrones being played in Zhongnanhai. In his recent trip, SM Lee met with the 3 elder's preferred chocie.

If XJP is still in charge, chances are against them capitulating to Trump. If however he has become a figurehead, then it becomes likely that they will force him to do it, preferably in a humiliating way.

With the 90 day pause, Trump is signalling he is ready to move on. His comment of the budget is telling. He is signalling he wants his tax cuts next. If this is true, we should prepare for market to go back to ATH.

Never a dull moment ...

 

[DevilPlate]

So fast clown show over
I js started to makan my popcorn

 

[DevilPlate]

My 2 cents worth on what is going on.

The 90 day pause confirms that the policy intent is to contain China. The crazy Liberation Day WWE style antics was to put world on notice that if you let China use your jurisdiction to evade tariffs, the US will come for you. A lot has been said about the inclusion of Heard and McDonald islands in Trump's tariff list. Many have pointed to it as a sign that a generative AI was used to make the chart. My take is that it was intentional. This was to send the message that no matter how remote the location, the US is watching.

The next step to confirm this hypothesis are the policy demands that the US will make. If these involve safeguards to stop Chinese tariff evasion, it would further confirm the policy intent. For SG, we better be super on the ball. There are 195 countries in the world. Trump chose to highlight 50. Taking away the nonsensical entries like Heard and McDonald islands, it would seem to suggest that this is shortlist of countries that are most involved in the China tariff evasion trade. If we want to avoid being targeted, we better play ball and do what the US wants.

On China, the situation is interesting. Conventional commentary suggests that China will not back down. In another thread before all this happened, I wrote about how there are signs that XJP has lost control of the PLA to ZYX. On the civilian side, most of the factions are looking to the 3 elders for directions. The end game is for XJP to step down and for a new leader to take over after his current term ends. There is now a Game of Thrones being played in Zhongnanhai. In his recent trip, SM Lee met with 3 elder's preferred chocie.

If XJP is still in charge, chances are against them capitulating to Trump. If however he has become a figurehead, then it becomes likely that they will force him to do it, preferably in a humiliating way.

With the 90 days pause, Trump is signalling he is ready to move on. His comment of the budget is telling. He is signalling he wants his tax cuts next. If this is true, we should prepare for market to go back to ATH.

Never a dull moment ...

All i js saw was Warlord praising Xi and praying he will call him

 

[DevilPlate]

Sure, if you really know what you're talking about. That 2.88% auction low is a big red flag if you know how it works. As I said, this is the Fed basically bidding on its own auction to let it appear that there is a big interest from international buyers.

The manipulated 10 year auction results combined with today's rise in short interests caused this rally.

As I said, this is not the time to pile into longs, it's a relief rally (or bear market rally) and a time for buyers to get out. The indices will still float a bit higher before crashing later. It just takes a leak or two of what actually Trump will be doing soon for the crash to happen.

In bear markets, relief rallies are common. It doesn't mean its a true reflection that the markets have turned bullish.

I click the pdf link.
How to tell Fed bidded?

 

[aurvandil]

All i js saw was Warlord praising Xi and praying he will call him

That is his signature style. He learn from WWE.

 

[aurvandil]

I click the pdf link.
How to tell Fed bidded?

Where got FED need to bid directly?

I did hear rumors that China side was preparing to dump their stash of Treasuries as part of retaliation against the US. I felt it would super dumb if they did. FED already has established active presence in the secondary from QE. The primary dealers would be able to alert them of a Chinese dump. They would simply step in buy up whatever the Chinese were dumping. To prevent the money supply from spiking, they would lock up whatever excess in RR.

 

[DevilPlate]

Where got FED need to bid directly?

I did hear rumors that China side was preparing to dump their stash of Treasuries as part of retaliation against the US. I felt it would super dumb if they did. FED already has established active presence in the secondary from QE. The primary dealers would be able to alert them of a Chinese dump. They would simply step in buy up whatever the Chinese were dumping. To prevent the money supply from spiking, they would lock up whatever excess in RR.

Dumb rumors started by who obviously

Anyway 2 possible reasons why Warlord caved....
EU issued retaliatary tariff and bond yield spiking

 

[DevilPlate]

1M dinner
OK lah Nvidia shares surge by 18%