USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[apple459721]

I wonder how accurate to read charts since it is purely news driven market rn

Oversold need relief rally..
One good news market go parabolic
Nearing 90 days pause, plunge again?

 

[stanlawj]

Hope everyone came out in one piece from that rollercoaster ride

I am guessing many accounts have been liquidated, like this fellow:

https://www.reddit.com/r/singaporefi/s/LD3noS5EWO

Basically, one's financial condition actually determines the approach to this V-bottom.

In order to buy this dip or hold through it, you must be someone who
1. already cashed out at the top and now ready to deploy (lucky timer)
2. have big steady income outside the market (eg. Adam Khoo)

I am neither. Furthermore, I was leveraged before the dip and actually lost about 15% due to this market drop.
So the correct action is to cut loss and preserve portfolio (the reddit poster didn't). No big steady income hence cannot BTFD or DCA then wait till it recover. The best I was able to do is to claw back about 5% through tactical trades, so I am now +20% YTD.

Conclusion: what works for someone (buy-the-dip, DCA, cut loss) depends on personal financial conditions. There are many more crashes ahead... surviving this one does not mean you will survive the next one.
We must have a personalised strategy to survive all possible crashes in the future.

 

[redname]

Haizzz ... barely added 10k and he flip prata liao .... was hoping this to last for at least a couple of months

me too, 5K in and preparing another 5K for another big drop, now regretting shldnt have waited for another big drop

 

[DevilPlate]

Basically, one's financial condition actually determines the approach to this V-bottom.

In order to buy this dip, you must be someone who
1. already cashed out at the top and now ready to deploy (lucky timer)
2. have big steady income outside the market (eg. Adam Khoo)

I am neither. Furthermore, I was leveraged before the dip and actually lost about 15% due to this market drop.
So the correct action is to cut loss and preserve portfolio (the reddit poster didn't). No big steady income hence cannot BTFD or DCA then wait till it recover. The best I was able to do is to claw back about 5% through tactical trades, so I am now +20% YTD.

Conclusion: what works for someone (buy-the-dip, DCA, cut loss) depends on personal financial conditions. There are many more crashes ahead... surviving this one does not mean you will survive the next one.
We must have a personalised strategy to survive all possible crashes in the future.

Ya fully agree on individual circumstances.
Don’t follow others blindly.

 

[DevilPlate]

me too, 5K in and preparing another 5K for another big drop, now regretting shldnt have waited for another big drop

Tmr Trump wake up on the wrong side of his bed and decide to reverse course then u will say heng ar never all in whahaha

 

[revhappy]

Basically, one's financial condition actually determines the approach to this V-bottom.

In order to buy this dip or hold through it, you must be someone who
1. already cashed out at the top and now ready to deploy (lucky timer)
2. have big steady income outside the market (eg. Adam Khoo)

I am neither. Furthermore, I was leveraged before the dip and actually lost about 15% due to this market drop.
So the correct action is to cut loss and preserve portfolio (the reddit poster didn't). No big steady income hence cannot BTFD or DCA then wait till it recover. The best I was able to do is to claw back about 5% through tactical trades, so I am now +20% YTD.

Conclusion: what works for someone (buy-the-dip, DCA, cut loss) depends on personal financial conditions. There are many more crashes ahead... surviving this one does not mean you will survive the next one.
We must have a personalised strategy to survive all possible crashes in the future.

I am of the same position as you. I wont have any income coming in the future. Besides all my allocation is in mutual funds(Unit trusts) which have end of the day NAV. The reason I stopped investing via ETFs is because I have the potential to screw myself by trading like crazy. Atleast mutual funds(unit trusts) you cannot short you cannot do leverage, so less likely to harm myself. But at the same time due to end of the day NAV, you never know by the time i put buy order then Trump suddenly U turn and I end up buying at the peak price.

Hence, I didnt do any action over this entire turmoil period.

 

[stanlawj]

I am of the same position as you. I wont have any income coming in the future. Besides all my allocation is in mutual funds(Unit trusts) which have end of the day NAV. The reason I stopped investing via ETFs is because I have the potential to screw myself by trading like crazy. Atleast mutual funds(unit trusts) you cannot short you cannot do leverage, so less likely to harm myself. But at the same time due to end of the day NAV, you never know by the time i put buy order then Trump suddenly U turn and I end up buying at the peak price.

Hence, I didnt do any action over this entire turmoil period.

Fed policy remains the major determinant of the US financial liquidity.
No cut likely as jobs report still remain strong.

Hence, I predict the financial market this quarter for Q2 2025 will be whipsaw, in fact lots of mini-crashes especially corporates start pulling guidance downwards. JPM starts reporting this Friday before market open. This becomes a hard environment to make money through investing long term.

 

[DevilPlate]

Fed policy remains the major determinant of the US financial liquidity.
No cut likely as jobs report still remain strong.

Hence, I predict the financial market this quarter for Q2 2025 will be whipsaw, in fact lots of mini-crashes especially corporates start pulling guidance downwards. JPM starts reporting this Friday before market open. This becomes a hard environment to make money through investing long term.

but but u are looking at short term fluctuations and saying it is difficult for long term investing?
Leme repeat myself again…..Long term investing requires blind faith in the asset u are investing.

Without blind faith, cannot make it one……keep searching until u find one asset/faith else like what some others are doing……..save cash and CPF and focus on active income and family well being for eg.

 

[revhappy]

Without blind faith, cannot make it one……keep searching until u find one asset/faith else like what some others are doing……..save cash and CPF and focus on active income and family well being for eg.

You nailed it! You need an element of delusion to succeed in long term investing. Normal people are sceptical. For example, they fear real estate prices can crash, so they never action on buying real estate.

Same thing, when I see @Dividends Warrior making only perma bull comments in his blog and here, with no signs of scepticism. I believe you need to be delusional at a certain level to not listen to anyone and just keep doing your thing. Tom Lee is another such delusional person. All perma bulls are.

 

[aurvandil]

You nailed it! You need an element of delusion to succeed in long term investing.

Or you can be like me. Cowardly perma bull who do short hedges.
My trading motto is better to earn less than to lose money.

 

[DevilPlate]

Or you can be like me. Cowardly perma bull who do short hedges.
My trading motto is better to earn less than to lose money.

I also said before….put cash in the banks earning 1% still way better than losing money in the stock market!
For cash savers….ignore simi inflation erodes purchasing power theory!! Common tactics by bankers and agents or even scammers to lure you to buy their products

 

[aurvandil]

I also said before….put cash in the banks earning 1% still way better than losing money in the stock market!
For cash savers….ignore simi inflation erodes purchasing power theory!!

Simi put bank. If got name, buy EC.
Better still ... buy EC by Sim Lian.

That one really bao jiak no horse run.

 

[stanlawj]

You nailed it! You need an element of delusion to succeed in long term investing. Normal people are sceptical. For example, they fear real estate prices can crash, so they never action on buying real estate.

Same thing, when I see @Dividends Warrior making only perma bull comments in his blog and here, with no signs of scepticism. I believe you need to be delusional at a certain level to not listen to anyone and just keep doing your thing. Tom Lee is another such delusional person. All perma bulls are.

1. Ask for 5-year portfolio performance to gauge the quality of advice (WYSIWYG)
2. Actually, it is not delusion. It is about forecasting/prediction. Delusion is when you forecast sunshine, but it rains non-stop and you still forecast sunshine and insist on standing in the rain, i.e. inflexible/non-adaptive forecasts. Hence Gabriel Yap > Dividendswarrior when it comes to REITS investing?

 

[DevilPlate]

1. Ask for 5-year portfolio performance to gauge the quality of advice (WYSIWYG)
2. Actually, it is not delusion. It is about forecasting/prediction. Delusion is when you forecast sunshine, but it rains non-stop and you still forecast sunshine and insist on standing in the rain, i.e. inflexible/non-adaptive forecasts.

Many here will pull out 100y chart and argue 10% pa returns
But then who got 100y investment horizon tio bor Unless our ave lifespan become 150-200years

 

[d9lives]

Basically, one's financial condition actually determines the approach to this V-bottom.

In order to buy this dip or hold through it, you must be someone who
1. already cashed out at the top and now ready to deploy (lucky timer)
2. have big steady income outside the market (eg. Adam Khoo)

I am neither. Furthermore, I was leveraged before the dip and actually lost about 15% due to this market drop.
So the correct action is to cut loss and preserve portfolio (the reddit poster didn't). No big steady income hence cannot BTFD or DCA then wait till it recover. The best I was able to do is to claw back about 5% through tactical trades, so I am now +20% YTD.

Conclusion: what works for someone (buy-the-dip, DCA, cut loss) depends on personal financial conditions. There are many more crashes ahead... surviving this one does not mean you will survive the next one.
We must have a personalised strategy to survive all possible crashes in the future.

1 must conveniently "forget" where the sell button is. I never panic sell.
I survived 2020, 2022, aug 2024, and now this.
Each time, I emerge stronger and more buff.

But to be frank, this one rattled me a bit.
Losing 800-900k gain in 2 weeks and unable to buy the dip. Bad deal.
Not out of the wood yet.


Now...confession time. who panic sold?

 

[revhappy]

Many here will pull out 100y chart and argue 10% pa returns
But then who got 100y investment horizon tio bor Unless our ave lifespan become 150-200years

Interesting point. How to calculate investment horizon? Is it our remaining lifetime? For example I am 45, let's assume life expectancy of 90. So 45 years. But I cannot remain 100% invested as I need to consume. So as a thumb rule I take half of it as my investment horizon, so approximately 25 years.

 

[DevilPlate]

Interesting point. How to calculate investment horizon? Is it our remaining lifetime? For example I am 45, let's assume life expectancy of 90. So 45 years. But I cannot remain 100% invested as I need to consume. So as a thumb rule I take half of it as my investment horizon, so approximately 25 years.

U ownself set yr own time horizon

 

[DevilPlate]

1 must conveniently "forget" where the sell button is. I never panic sell.
I survived 2020, 2022, aug 2024, and now this.
Each time, I emerge stronger and more buff.

But to be frank, this one rattled me a bit.
Losing 800-900k gain in 2 weeks and unable to buy the dip. Bad deal.
Not out of the wood yet.


Now...confession time. who panic sold?

I was panicky when that night the price keep going up and keep pressing BUY button and adjusting my limit price (Next time jitao set market order liao)

FOMO

 

[twosix]

Hope someone investigate if insider trading has taken place or not.

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

1. Ask for 5-year portfolio performance to gauge the quality of advice (WYSIWYG)
2. Actually, it is not delusion. It is about forecasting/prediction. Delusion is when you forecast sunshine, but it rains non-stop and you still forecast sunshine and insist on standing in the rain, i.e. inflexible/non-adaptive forecasts. Hence Gabriel Yap > Dividendswarrior when it comes to REITS investing?

All forecast and prediction are delusion lah. All forecast models are based on known-known. The extremely experience ones may incorporate known-unknown. But the future is filled with unknown-unknown.