USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

Most traders will lose money in this kind of market, only Trump and his cronies are making bank with all the insider trader and front running.

Long term investors should just do nothing, like I said Trump is not going to be president forever, in fact he could be lame duck by the end of next year.

Until end of next year so long ar?
I tot he gona be a lame duck at the end of the 90d

 

[elvintay07]

Until end of next year so long ar?
I tot he gona be a lame duck at the end of the 90d

Already cheong for last 2 days. lol!

 

[d9lives]

Although I'm bearish after all the saga that happened, Trump's tariff has washed and deleveraged the market significantly. Powell will be forced to cut rates, whether he likes it or not.

Here's the bull prediction:


The bond market will take rates down regardless of what Powell does. We're likely to see the Fed ease in either May or June as the Fed wakes up to the slowing economy/recession & lower inflation but rates are headed lower whether he cuts or not.

@d9lives, got chance to earn back!

I almost make it back bro.

 

[davonir]

Stilling holding onto equity futures swing long and waiting for another short-term and superficial Trump announcement (eg: "We have closed a deal with China") to spike prices up before exiting and shorting hard.

IMO, this is a bear market rally. Not a bullish reversal. Pretty bearish on US equity and bond markets (have a ZB short position from 119'24 level).

 

[davonir]

GPGT

 

[aurvandil]

Most traders will lose money in this kind of market, only Trump and his cronies are making bank with all the insider trader and front running.

Long term investors should just do nothing, like I said Trump is not going to be president forever, in fact he could be lame duck by the end of next year.

Fully agree that if you are retail and un-leveraged, the best thing you can do is nothing and just ride it out.
This is not a market for noobs and hubris. If you trade the news flow because you are following developments closely on TV, you will most likely lose money.

 

[econ food]

Djt stock got chance to up to 38 dollars ?
10 April to 23 April rise from 16 to 23 dollars.

 

[davonir]

Fully agree that if you are retail and un-leveraged, the best thing you can do is nothing and just ride it out.
This is not a market for noobs and hubris. If you trade the news flow because you are following developments closely on TV, you will most likely lose money.

Yeah, bear markets are much harder to trade compared to bull markets. "Everyone is a genius in a bull market". Bear markets has lots of opportunities due to the volatility, but you need an edge and proper trade management (profit, risk management) to do well.

By the time you see the "news" on MSM, the main move has already happened. Most news folks, journalists, analysts are clueless about the market, otherwise they'd be making a much better living trading the market. Some analysts from well known firms also deliberately give an opposing view to make the retail traders take the opposite trade for increased liquidity.

 

[stanlawj]

Sequence of logistics freeze due to China supply chain shutdown:

The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.
Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.
It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.
45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.
55 to New York by sea.

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.
Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up.

Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor. All this will start in the Los Angeles area. After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.
“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”
Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.
Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship”.

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived. And that’s just in LA. In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days. New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can. And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

--------------
IMO, it won't be this bad, but somewhat close to it, as sourcing can be done through trans-shipping via other countries. Some slowdown in economic activity and a little panic may be expected.

 

[econ food]

Sequence of logistics freeze due to China supply chain shutdown:

The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.
Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.
It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.
45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.
55 to New York by sea.

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.
Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up.

Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor. All this will start in the Los Angeles area. After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.
“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”
Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.
Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship”.

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived. And that’s just in LA. In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days. New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can. And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

--------------
IMO, it won't be this bad, but somewhat close to it, as sourcing can be done through trans-shipping via other countries. Some slowdown in economic activity and a little panic may be expected.

Then amazon warehouse hoe? No stock or jam?

 

[DevilPlate]

Sequence of logistics freeze due to China supply chain shutdown:

The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.
Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.
It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.
45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.
55 to New York by sea.

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.
Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up.

Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor. All this will start in the Los Angeles area. After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.
“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”
Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.
Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship”.

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived. And that’s just in LA. In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days. New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can. And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

--------------
IMO, it won't be this bad, but somewhat close to it, as sourcing can be done through trans-shipping via other countries. Some slowdown in economic activity and a little panic may be expected.

tariff go up fast but take many years to come down

It is the market uncertainty that will cause global recession imo.

 

[DevilPlate]

I almost make it back bro.

Power…..maybe time to trim some sampan lolol

 

[888888888888]

In both longs and leveraged shorts as well.
hope make it out.

 

[elvintay07]

Difference between US and China market


Usually China companies usually kill one another unlike US companies

 

[stanlawj]

USD selling off during entire Tokyo session.

 

[yslvlys]

Bought some SRAD

 

[davonir]

Stilling holding onto equity futures swing long and waiting for another short-term and superficial Trump announcement (eg: "We have closed a deal with China") to spike prices up before exiting and shorting hard.

IMO, this is a bear market rally. Not a bullish reversal. Pretty bearish on US equity and bond markets (have a ZB short position from 119'24 level).

Indices going up as expected. Exiting equity longs and entering some shorts here. Reserving bullets for another short-term Trump announcement to push prices up higher before collapsing.

 

[stanlawj]

MP and AVT are up alot. MP ships their rare-earths to China for processing (but shipments are still suspended) while AVT is a distributor of electronics components (Farnell, etc but tariffs still apply).
Market is betting on Trump's tariffs will be watered down significantly as talked about by Trump himself.

UST yields and MOVE down, means the jawboning by Trump and Bessent worked to calm down the UST market. If you notice, the two of them will say something whenever UST goes haywire, without actually showing proof that anything has been done.

Bullish scenario playing out... D-day is 1st week of May. Currencies are not supporting this move... USD not up strongly during this NY session.

No, a significant number of market players are betting that this is like 2018-like short-term correction, i.e. Trump will drop the tariffs to a lower number after the negotiations ended. The US society cannot withstand such high tariffs since reindustrialisation has barely started. The optimistic people will be betting that the future presidents (8 or 16 years later) may not even follow through completely Trump's policies (only partial reindustrialisation).

 

[aurvandil]

People like to talk about the trade war as if it is the be all and end all for the stock market.
It is not. We are in the middle of earnings season.

Tesla's earnings came on Tues. It was bad but it was not the bloodbath many had feared. The stock price has pushed back up. Alphabet also came out. The results look quite ok.

Market has pushed up and we are near the top of the range we have established since Liberation Day. I wouldn't be betting that the breakout fails and we fall back into range. That is a high risk low return trade. If the breakout is successful, the structure above is very weak and we could find ourselves back up at 5850 very quickly. If that breaks, we go back into the range we were in before Deepseek and market was trying to make new ATH.

As I wrote before, if you trade based on your understanding of the news flow, you will most likely lose money. News flow and narrative are only useful as environmental factors for your trade. As an example, suppose you are going into a battle. News flow and narrative would be the equivalent to the weather and the terrain you are fighting on. They have an impact on the outcome but are not the decisive factor.

 

[davonir]

Sequence of logistics freeze due to China supply chain shutdown:

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.
Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up.


The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can. And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

In effect, no matter what happens from here, whether Trump suddenly reverses his tariffs on China, etc, the real effects will be seen in a few weeks to months time.

A supply chain shock will happen in the United States as imports get interrupted. There might be some panic buying and widespread empty store shelves (a bit like how it is during the CoVid lockdowns). All this will lead to inflation, higher Treasury bond yields, etc.

This in turn will lead to smaller regional banks in US getting into trouble, with long-term Treasury Bonds losing value on their balance sheet.