USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[elvintay07]

What if 1 day 1SGD = 2US$? Our US stocks become like penny stocks.

That is when 1sgd = 1rmb. Master师父 become the next rich

 

[stanlawj]

Trump is very flexible with his tariff implementation.

 

[stanlawj]

What is going to happen to Netflix when market opens????



National security threat incoming!

 

[Brandedclassicwear]

The revenue for a movie is 60-70% generated outside US. Many movies are produced by studios from across the globe.

Putting tariffs on movies will only lead to more rampant illegal uploads and viewing on free platforms and likely recipocql treatment from Europe and East Asian countries

 

[weng0202]

The revenue for a movie is 60-70% generated outside US. Many movies are produced by studios from across the globe.

Putting tariffs on movies will only lead to more rampant illegal uploads and viewing on free platforms and likely recipocql treatment from Europe and East Asian countries

This is getting ridiculous, tariffs on movies?

 

[Jirachi]

Why is US market up today when they just announced q1 had a contraction?

Because front running of imports. Jobs data is fine. Inflation data is cool

 

[Jirachi]

This is getting ridiculous, tariffs on movies?

Market should just start ignoring Trump now. Initial reactions so far are from Asian trading. Let's see when Euro opens.

 

[apple459721]

More will follow dump usd?

 

[DevilPlate]

More will follow dump usd?

At this rate, TW economy will go into recession

 

[DevilPlate]

Market should just start ignoring Trump now. Initial reactions so far are from Asian trading. Let's see when Euro opens.

The clown show js started leh.

Some say he is trying to follow Plaza Accord playbook…..imagine Dollar depreciates by 30-50% and their national debt also reduce by 30-50%

 

[boroangel]

I dun think the market is pricing in any sort of permanently higher rate of tariffs at all, certainly not 60% on China. The expectation is that Trump will fold again since he has already folded several times with the various exemptions and carveouts.

Trump's antics have definitely damaged the US brand, there has been foreign capital flows out of US in recent weeks (dollar is very weak despite widening yield differentials), I think this is unlikely to change for quite some time, stocks would be much lower if it wasnt for the AI trade (secular tail wind).

d5dude,
curious to know how low you think the USDSGD can go? 70% of my networth is in USD (mainly cos due to my salaries being paid in that) and I wonder if USDSGD will ever get back to 1.35 - 1.4 ever?

I went through the 2011 to 2013 years when USDSGD was hovering around 1.2. Hope not to get that bad. The freefalling over the last few weeks is demoralising.

Planning to purchase some property in another 12 to 24 months and will need quite a bit of SGD. Wonder if I should wait for any possible bounceback to 1.35 or start changing USD To SGD each month going forward to even it out (at least to reach the downpayment amount I expect I would need).

 

[elvintay07]

d5dude,
curious to know how low you think the USDSGD can go? 70% of my networth is in USD (mainly cos due to my salaries being paid in that) and I wonder if USDSGD will ever get back to 1.35 - 1.4 ever?

I went through the 2011 to 2013 years when USDSGD was hovering around 1.2. Hope not to get that bad. The freefalling over the last few weeks is demoralising.

Planning to purchase some property in another 12 to 24 months and will need quite a bit of SGD. Wonder if I should wait for any possible bounceback to 1.35 or start changing USD To SGD each month going forward to even it out (at least to reach the downpayment amount I expect I would need).

If you have $10m US$, I don’t think it will affect your downpayment. But if only limited ammo, then good to change? Because we don’t know what Xiao Lang trump will do.

 

[stanlawj]

More about TWD. I believe this is the sequence of events that truly explains what is going on with the SUDDEN strength in Asian Tigers' national currencies.

1. Central bankers met US Treasury Secretary Bessent for the G20 IMF Finance ministers meeting Apr 23 - 24.
I believe Bessent tells Asian CBs that their currency manipulation is unacceptable.

2. Taiwan, Singapore, SKorea institutions start selling USD, buying TWD, SGD, KRW. (Life insurers, exporters, to hedge against USD weakness caused by outflows from US stock market & bonds by global institutional funds, etc). Remember that Japanese banks started this first back in early April and almost blew up the UST market.

3. Taiwan CBC, SG MAS, SKorea BoK stop fixing their currency and letting it run. Speculators picked up on this and piled in.

4. TWD, SGD, KRW all appreciate strongly against USD.

The end.

If not for Bessent's warning, I believe the SOP for these CBs is to print up local currencies as much as needed to fix their exchange rate weak vs USD.

I also believe this strength is temporary. MAS is still going to weaken SGD because recession is coming. But now they let it strengthen first as a show to Bessent during coming tariff negotiations, then they have room to weaken SGD later in Q3 and Q4 2025 when recession arrives.

 

[DevilPlate]

More about TWD. I believe this is the sequence of events that truly explains what is going on with the SUDDEN strength in Asian Tigers' national currencies.

1. Central bankers met US Treasury Secretary Bessent for the G20 IMF Finance ministers meeting Apr 23 - 24.
I believe Bessent tells Asian CBs that their currency manipulation is unacceptable.

2. Taiwan, Singapore, SKorea institutions start selling USD, buying TWD, SGD, KRW. (Life insurers, exporters, to hedge against USD weakness caused by outflows from US stock market & bonds by global institutional funds, etc). Remember that Japanese banks started this first back in early April and almost blew up the UST market.

3. Taiwan CBC, SG MAS, SKorea BoK stop fixing their currency and letting it run. Speculators picked up on this and piled in.

4. TWD, SGD, KRW all appreciate strongly against USD.

The end.

If not for Bessent's warning, I believe the SOP for these CBs is to print up local currencies as much as needed to fix their exchange rate weak vs USD.

I also believe this strength is temporary. MAS is still going to weaken SGD because recession is coming. But now they let it strengthen first as a show to Bessent during coming tariff negotiations, then they have room to weaken SGD later in Q3 and Q4 2025 when recession arrives.

drag long enough, whole of Asia will fall into Recession liao

 

[stanlawj]

Long TECS (3X tech bear etf). Small amount. Hope to make $1k only during the pullback.
This market still looks like a strong bull with occasional pullbacks.

 

[elvintay07]

Long TECS (3X tech bear etf). Small amount. Hope to make $1k only during the pullback.
This market still looks like a strong bull with occasional pullbacks.

If it is a bull then looks like bull?

 

[stanlawj]

If it is a bull then looks like bull?

Looks like a bull continuation rally rather than a bear bounce rally.

 

[aurvandil]

I dun think the market is pricing in any sort of permanently higher rate of tariffs at all, certainly not 60% on China. The expectation is that Trump will fold again since he has already folded several times with the various exemptions and carveouts.

Trump's antics have definitely damaged the US brand, there has been foreign capital flows out of US in recent weeks (dollar is very weak despite widening yield differentials), I think this is unlikely to change for quite some time, stocks would be much lower if it wasnt for the AI trade (secular tail wind).

60% was what was touted along the campaign trail and is the most common bandied about number about where things will end. The 10% universal was also something widely expected before he walked up to that podium with his big chart. The longer this drags, the more chance this will stick as supply chain adjust to the new reality.

On capital outflow, I think it is a knee jerk reaction. The question is where to flow to. China, Japan, the EU? All have domestic issues which are significantly worse than the US. Even for the SGD, MAS is allowing for an appreciation in line with our import partners so that we don't get an inflationary spike. If the recession hits us as expected, MAS will then start devaluing the SGD as part of their package to attract FDI and get SG out of recession.

 

[stanlawj]

CART on fire yesterday ~ Up 13+%!

Interesting picks. CART may benefit from Apple app store lawsuit by Epic.
KNSL and CART entering my watchlist.

 

[DevilPlate]

60% was what was touted along the campaign trail and is the most common bandied about number about where things will end. The 10% universal was also something widely expected before he walked up to that podium with his big chart. The longer this drags, the more chance this will stick as supply chain adjust to the new reality.

On capital outflow, I think it is a knee jerk reaction. The question is where to flow to. China, Japan, the EU? All have domestic issues which are significantly worse than the US. Even for the SGD, MAS is allowing for an appreciation in line with our import partners so that we don't get an inflationary spike. If the recession hits us as expected, MAS will then start devaluing the SGD as part of their package to attract FDI and get SG out of recession.

Countries dump US treasuries can go where?
Cannot change back to own currency so buy more Gold and BTC lor

Gold to 10k and BTC to 1M

BTW SPY companies derive 40%+ of their earnings overseas tio bor?
If rest of the world Recession, SPY earnings will drop also what.
Only Gold and BTC cannot be valued