SINGAPORE : The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to allow the Singapore dollar (Sing dollar) to depreciate at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Experts are expecting a downward re-centring of the Sing dollar policy band by 150 basis points - even if the economy goes into a deeper recession.
Commodity prices have come off highs recorded in 2007. And this has brought down Singapore's monthly consumer price index significantly.
Leong Wai Ho, associate director and regional economist, Barclays Capital, said: "February was 1.9 per cent, significantly lower than the 6.5 per cent peak last year. Rising joblessness as well as rising underemployment, which refers to the number of workers having to take unpaid leave, has risen sharply since November last year."
Regional currencies are also expected to slide against the dollar.
These two factors are likely to motivate the Singapore central bank to devalue the local currency.
Barclays said this will drive the US-to-Sing dollar rate upwards to the mid 1.50s in the next three months.
And while a poor economic outlook could deter the central bank from making the move, observers said there are signs of some form of stabilisation in Asia. For example, inventory ratios have come off in economies like Taiwan and Korea.
Mr Leong said: "The correction of the inventory cycle - that's come through... we see that quite clearly in places like Korea (and) Taiwan, which have quite good and comprehensive data on inventories. We see inventory ratios in those countries coming off in January and February.
"Singapore is no exception. Manufacturers in Singapore have been cutting inventories as well in anticipation of a weaker external environment. Another dynamic that helped is in recent weeks we saw large swing orders come through from global consumer electronic companies for basic components.
"It is a sign that utilisation rates have been too low, and that there is some need to rebuild inventories in the short term."
However, the move to devalue the currency comes with negative effects to Singapore importers.
Mr Leong explained: "The effect... of a weaker Sing dollar on import-intensive industries like construction activity, and domestically-focused industries like retail, which import and sell domestically... I think the effect of a devaluation, the net effect would be a rise in business costs."
Barclays is expecting Singapore's economy to contract by 4 per cent this year, falling within the government's official -2 to -5 per cent forecast. During the most recent recession in 2001, Singapore's economy contracted by 2.3 per cent. - CNA/ms