YTD 2026 Networth tracking thread

[limster]

For now... I'm somewhat surprised by the huge surge in the valuation of my property this year, its up more than 10% YTD, greatly helped to offset the decline in the value of my equity portfolio.

This just goes to show how important diversification is for long term wealth preservation.

which website do you use to check property valuation? SRX is supposed to be commonly used by agents but need to sign up and provide mobile number in order to check valuation - no way I want my mobile to be spammed with housing ads.

At least without signing in, they show you the first digit of the valuation ... for my property, the first digit hasn't changed for some time...

 

[churnmaster]

which website do you use to check property valuation? SRX is supposed to be commonly used by agents but need to sign up and provide mobile number in order to check valuation - no way I want my mobile to be spammed with housing ads.

At least without signing in, they show you the first digit of the valuation ... for my property, the first digit hasn't changed for some time...

Just get a new sim for all such uses . . I think someone even mentioned of a free no contract plan somewhere

 

[revhappy]

For now... I'm somewhat surprised by the huge surge in the valuation of my property this year, its up more than 10% YTD, greatly helped to offset the decline in the value of my equity portfolio.

This just goes to show how important diversification is for long term wealth preservation.

The iedge S REIT index was 1270 in Oct 2017 and 5 years later it has fallen to 1134 so 11% down in 5 years.
If commercial has gone no where in 5 years and only down then how come residential has gone up?

https://www.sgx.com/indices/products/sreit
Does it mean, it is better to bring down all office building in Singapore and convert them to Condos?

 

[churnmaster]

The iedge S REIT index was 1270 in Oct 2017 and 5 years later it has fallen to 1134 so 11% down in 5 years.
If commercial has gone no where in 5 years and only down then how come residential has gone up?

https://www.sgx.com/indices/products/sreit
Does it mean, it is better to bring down all office building in Singapore and convert them to Condos?

Ask the property agents how they succeeded in creating a rental squeeze and convincing the resident population to invest in private property. Only about 3% of the private properties were bought by foreigners in the last 2 years, rest by the resident population. Let’s see how things pan out in the coming years.

 

[d5dude]

which website do you use to check property valuation? SRX is supposed to be commonly used by agents but need to sign up and provide mobile number in order to check valuation - no way I want my mobile to be spammed with housing ads.

At least without signing in, they show you the first digit of the valuation ... for my property, the first digit hasn't changed for some time...

I look at URA price indices, SRX valuation and recent transactions. Its 99% accurate if they all line up.

 

[d5dude]

The iedge S REIT index was 1270 in Oct 2017 and 5 years later it has fallen to 1134 so 11% down in 5 years.
If commercial has gone no where in 5 years and only down then how come residential has gone up?

I think covid has something to do with this. AFAIK office space vacancy rates have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, take my company for example, my dept still WFH 3 days a week and we have gone to hot-desking, I reckon the companies that require all their employees to WFO are probably stuck with some kind of long term lease, they will surely cut office space when those leases expire.

https://www.sgx.com/indices/products/sreit
Does it mean, it is better to bring down all office building in Singapore and convert them to Condos?

Maybe but still need URA approval, and if I'm not wrong, grade A office space in SG is still more valuable than residential.

 

[boroangel]

Ask the property agents how they succeeded in creating a rental squeeze and convincing the resident population to invest in private property. Only about 3% of the private properties were bought by foreigners in the last 2 years, rest by the resident population. Let’s see how things pan out in the coming years.

Yeah I think only massive widespread retrenchment throughout most sectors will bring down residential property. This is a scenario that could potentially happen if inflation remains relatively sticky (meaning hard to bring down below 4~5% and interest rates reaches 6, 7, 8 %. AS long as employment data is good in the US, I doubt inflation will really come down.

As long as most are employed, I doubt property prices can be really restrained.
It looks like only a sustained period of job losses and economic situations (say lasting 2 to 3 years) like 97 and 2000~2003 will really bring property prices down.

Important to save for rainy days.

Am also looking forward to US T-bills hitting above 6%. Imagine if T-bills hit 7, 8% . Might be too much of a stretch but I would be delighted if we can get 6%. Would be brilliant for savers, risk free. Trying to time it to the point where Fed pauses interest rate increases and then try to lock down to 2 year T-bills. Wonder if that makes sense. Meanwhile, just keep buying short term 2, 3, 6 month T-bills, trade some swings up and down in the market and try to take profit if possible. IBKR is also giving a decent 2.58% on idle cash, can't complain.

 

[stanlawj]

Yeah I think only massive widespread retrenchment throughout most sectors will bring down residential property. This is a scenario that could potentially happen if inflation remains relatively sticky (meaning hard to bring down below 4~5% and interest rates reaches 6, 7, 8 %. AS long as employment data is good in the US, I doubt inflation will really come down.

As long as most are employed, I doubt property prices can be really restrained.
It looks like only a sustained period of job losses and economic situations (say lasting 2 to 3 years) like 97 and 2000~2003 will really bring property prices down.

Important to save for rainy days.

Am also looking forward to US T-bills hitting above 6%. Imagine if T-bills hit 7, 8% . Might be too much of a stretch but I would be delighted if we can get 6%. Would be brilliant for savers, risk free. Trying to time it to the point where Fed pauses interest rate increases and then try to lock down to 2 year T-bills. Wonder if that makes sense. Meanwhile, just keep buying short term 2, 3, 6 month T-bills, trade some swings up and down in the market and try to take profit if possible. IBKR is also giving a decent 2.58% on idle cash, can't complain.

Seriously, you have no clue what happens when T-bills hit 7%. So be careful of what you wish. Buying a bond means giving your money to someone else and asking him to pay you back MORE in the future.

 

[boroangel]

Seriously, you have no clue what happens when T-bills hit 7%. So be careful of what you wish. Buying a bond means giving your money to someone else and asking him to pay you back MORE in the future.

I am having short term short positions on the market so if the market do crash it works out for my strategy. And meanwhile hiding the rest in T-bills. US 1 year T bills giving 4.538 % now so its a real possibility I feel for that to hit 6% after Feds early Feb 2023 meeting. As for more than 6% I am not sure if thats possible but will have to see......

 

[stanlawj]

The iedge S REIT index was 1270 in Oct 2017 and 5 years later it has fallen to 1134 so 11% down in 5 years.
If commercial has gone no where in 5 years and only down then how come residential has gone up?

https://www.sgx.com/indices/products/sreit
Does it mean, it is better to bring down all office building in Singapore and convert them to Condos?

You still don't understand that REITS valuation is more promptly, while residential properties are lagging due to the selling costs, stamp duty, ABSD etc.

I just checked FCT reit as proxy for Singapore commercial property. It went up more than 100% from 2010 to 2019, which exceeded the residential private property price index appreciation of 60% during the same time period.

However from 2010 to 2022, the private residential price index finally reached almost increased by 100%.

Furthermore, the iedge S-REIT is not pure Singapore properties. Some of the REITS contain overseas properties.

In conclusion, if you want to make big money using just property, one should toggle between REITS and physical property to take advantage of the leads and lags. But the property experts will tell you to keep leveraging up and buy bigger because their strategy is based on never-ending price rise (i.e. hope and pray).

 

[stanlawj]

The sad thing is when the next property crash comes, there will be many Singaporeans calling out for bailouts, mortgage payment freezes because of the past conditioning that Govt will take care of them.

I'd say, let all the private residential property owners get foreclosed. As for HDB owners who overpaid with bank loans.... well, they are lucky because HDB is sensitive matter, but at least they should assisted to downgrade.

 

[d5dude]

You still don't understand that REITS valuation is more promptly, while residential properties are lagging due to the selling costs, stamp duty, ABSD etc.

I dun see any evidence of this. According to URA, residential property prices bounced much faster than office/retail back in 2009/2010, office/residential PPIs were both in the mid 90s in Q1 2009, but by Q1 2010 residential PPI had already shot up to nearly 120 while office PPI was still under 100.

And when residential PPI began to soften in 2014, office PPI continued to climb, this is exactly what I've pointed out several times before, there is some correlation between the 2 but its not anywhere near as close as some people think.

I just checked FCT reit as proxy for Singapore commercial property. It went up more than 100% from 2010 to 2019, which exceeded the residential private property price index appreciation of 60% during the same time period.

However from 2010 to 2022, the private residential price index finally reached almost increased by 100%.

Furthermore, the iedge S-REIT is not pure Singapore properties. Some of the REITS contain overseas properties.

In conclusion, if you want to make big money using just property, one should toggle between REITS and physical property to take advantage of the leads and lags. But the property experts will tell you to keep leveraging up and buy bigger because their strategy is based on never-ending price rise (i.e. hope and pray).

As I pointed out earlier, private residential PPI was 120 back in Q1 2010, its 187 now, thats roughly 60%, not 100%. Also I'm not sure where you got the data that commercial property is up 100% since 2010, FCT is one mall reit, its not representative of all retail reits, and its certainly not representative of all commercial properties, which should include office/industrial space. According to URA's office/retail property price indices, commercial properties have actually underperformed residential properties since the 2008 GFC, and it continues to be so since the pandemic.

 

[revhappy]

I don't think condo prices have doubled. I have been tracking Melville park in Simei since 2009. It dipped to 600k during GFC and then jumped back to 800k by 2011, for a 2 bedder. Even now it is 800k odd only. So zero appreciation.

Also I look at Summerdale in Boon Lay, it is below $800psft. So no appreciation here too.

There is no bubble in property prices, thanks to the various cooling measures. But the bubble is mainly in rent now.

 

[churnmaster]

The sad thing is when the next property crash comes, there will be many Singaporeans calling out for bailouts, mortgage payment freezes because of the past conditioning that Govt will take care of them.

I'd say, let all the private residential property owners get foreclosed. As for HDB owners who overpaid with bank loans.... well, they are lucky because HDB is sensitive matter, but at least they should assisted to downgrade.

Don’t think we have a culture of bailing out here in Singapore. If people have leveraged beyond their means then they have to face the consequences when things turn worse. Only the first time hdb buyers should be helped if at all because they have bought the units to actually live in there. All the rest (the upgraders, the downgraders from condo to hdb, the households renting out their hdb while living in their condos, etc) should be made to fend for themselves otherwise we’ll set a bad precedence. A lot of froth has been built in the property market here despite various cooling measures. You just need job losses and subsequent triggering of diplomatic clauses like the one we saw in 2008 and we’ll get a sharp correction here.

 

[stanlawj]

As I pointed out earlier, private residential PPI was 120 back in Q1 2010, its 187 now, thats roughly 60%, not 100%. Also I'm not sure where you got the data that commercial property is up 100% since 2010, FCT is one mall reit, its not representative of all retail reits, and its certainly not representative of all commercial properties, which should include office/industrial space.

The error in revhappy's comparison was comparing REITS with property. He should have instead used the prices based on caveats lodged, to make things fair, like what you are trying to point out using the price indices.

If you are talking about commercial not owned by REITS, then I agree you are right. Inclusion of a commercial property into REITS significantly changes its investor base and liquidity, and it becomes stock-like. So I think that is why it is a mistake to treat REITS like property.

 

[whyliddat]

I don't think condo prices have doubled. I have been tracking Melville park in Simei since 2009. It dipped to 600k during GFC and then jumped back to 800k by 2011, for a 2 bedder. Even now it is 800k odd only. So zero appreciation.

Also I look at Summerdale in Boon Lay, it is below $800psft. So no appreciation here too.

There is no bubble in property prices, thanks to the various cooling measures. But the bubble is mainly in rent now.

Just like there are low performing stocks, there are low performing properties. I understand you have been working in SG for quite a while now and surprised of all places, you pick those coffee-shop uncle properties to compare. They are no different from coffee-shop uncle stocks.

Here's 3 of my my property and tell me how they performed with whatever metrics you used:

1) Valley Point
2) Anchorage
3) Rivergate

I have 7 residential properties in Singapore. I am happily enjoying their uplift in valuation in this time, taking a reverse mortgage on them and buying stocks and crypto cheap. Good property has always been the best inflation hedge since humans were cavemen looking for caves.

 

[d5dude]

The error in revhappy's comparison was comparing REITS with property. He should have instead used the prices based on caveats lodged, to make things fair, like what you are trying to point out using the price indices.

If you are talking about commercial not owned by REITS, then I agree you are right. Inclusion of a commercial property into REITS significantly changes its investor base and liquidity, and it becomes stock-like. So I think that is why it is a mistake to treat REITS like property.

Yep reits obviously own real estate but they are often times not valued like actual real estate, as in the value of the underlying assets can differ greatly from the price of the reit (could be way overvalued or undervalued).

Just like there are low performing stocks, there are low performing properties. I understand you have been working in SG for quite a while now and surprised of all places, you pick those coffee-shop uncle properties to compare. They are no different from coffee-shop uncle stocks.

Here's 3 of my my property and tell me how they performed with whatever metrics you used:

1) Valley Point
2) Anchorage
3) Rivergate

I have 7 residential properties in Singapore. I am happily enjoying their uplift in valuation in this time, taking a reverse mortgage on them and buying stocks and crypto cheap. Good property has always been the best inflation hedge since humans were cavemen looking for caves.

Yep the official property indices are compiled from actual transactions so they do not lie.

URA's PPI is up slightly less than 60% since Q1 2010 so this must mean private property prices have risen by 60% on average. I thought about investing in another condo back in 2016, later changed my mind but I still track the transacted prices of a couple of devs, on top of my own. They are up anywhere between 40 to 80%, so URA's data is pretty much spot on.

 

[limster]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/analysis-where-residential-rents-heading
I thought that when you compare REITs to owning residential property, you should be looking at rental yields for a more accurate comparison. (people buy REITs for the rental yield, not because the REIT manager is buying and selling property for capital gain).

When I went to google for a residential property rental index, I got this link to edgeprop. I am not a property investment expert so hopefully someone can explain the data but it doesn't seem to be a straight line going continuously up?

 

[whyliddat]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/analysis-where-residential-rents-heading
I thought that when you compare REITs to owning residential property, you should be looking at rental yields for a more accurate comparison. (people buy REITs for the rental yield, not because the REIT manager is buying and selling property for capital gain).

When I went to google for a residential property rental index, I got this link to edgeprop. I am not a property investment expert so hopefully someone can explain the data but it doesn't seem to be a straight line going continuously up?

Unlikes stocks where you can get a good ETF and largely go up, property is a class where a huge portion are average properties with average returns. When you buy a property for investment, you are committing to becoming a small business owner.

When you hear 'prime property', these are locations where the capable rich attract each other. The barrier to entry is high but once you secure one, you are talking about high earning tenants whose annual income go up 5 digits and you earn with little effort for his capabilities once you secure him.

I have a tenant that's been with me pre-GFC and has worked all the up til an MNC Director today. Every contract renewal, he will just sign (I do keep my increases reasonable). He has already done up the place more or less as his home, made lasting friends with neighbours. There is very little push factor for him to move so I have no downtime in rental.

On the other-hand, there are many mass market condos that are just bulk rental condos. The tenants of this class will always shop around, move, bargain etc. When you operate these, you pretty much operate an Old Chang Kee franchise. Sometimes people buy from you, sometimes they buy from other branches or competitors. Of course you have to start somewhere but long term wise, if you can't 'improve your business', you will pretty much get average returns. I still hold my first condo which belongs to this class and to date, the tenant types are still the same.

Property is truly Location, location and location

 

[d5dude]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/analysis-where-residential-rents-heading
I thought that when you compare REITs to owning residential property, you should be looking at rental yields for a more accurate comparison. (people buy REITs for the rental yield, not because the REIT manager is buying and selling property for capital gain).

When I went to google for a residential property rental index, I got this link to edgeprop. I am not a property investment expert so hopefully someone can explain the data but it doesn't seem to be a straight line going continuously up?

Edgeprop's data looks about right, no its not been a straight line up for SG private property rents, in fact rents did peak sometime in 2013 and its been sort of flatlining/moved lower in the years that followed. URA's data reports the same trend:



More recent chart (note the hockey stick like spike recently).

Looking at data going back to 2009, we can see that rents have actually not gone up by anywhere near as much as property prices, its only up 27%:

https://www.ura.gov.sg/-/media/Corporate/Media-Room/2022/Jul/pr22-30a3.pdf
Of course we know from URA's data that private property prices have risen far more than 27% since 2009, in fact it has nearly doubled. Since property prices are largely a function of interest rates and rents, its clear that the surge in property prices have mostly been due to low interest rates in the decade following the 2008 GFC, I assume its the same thing for reits, maybe the price distortion is more severe for reits since they are a lot more accessible to the average investor.

I think rents arent going to go down unless the economy tanks and/or we get mass emigration, OTOH property prices might actually move lower if the recent interest rate hikes stick around long enough.