Singapore Savings Bonds

[vegavega25]

If your cashflows and liquidity allow it, put fresh money into the new issue(s) of SSBs first. Then based on the amount of allotment in the new issue(s), cover your position with the equivalent redemption of earlier SSBs in the next month.

 

[magicming]

I have SSB from years ago. Will be redeeming to put into coming SSB. But I think will take few months to complete this task as it seems it is oversubscribed every month. Maybe max <10k allocated.

This month’s SSB overall rate only 2.75%. Plus first year only 2.6%. Not that attractive. Also one of the highest offer amounts of $900m. A lot of retail liquidity gone into FD’s which seem to be offering 2.6% to 2.88% etc. So this month likely allotment limit will be high. At least $20-30k.
Also, NEXT month’s offered SSB will have better rates. Currently, the 10 year SGS bond is reporting daily yields of 3.05 to 3.16 for sept 2022. So, if this carries on for the rest of sept, next month’s SSB will likely have an overall rate of 3.09 to 3.12%. Roughly. Allotment for this issue is likely to be low.

 

[reddevil0728]

This month’s SSB overall rate only 2.75%. Plus first year only 2.6%. Not that attractive. Also one of the highest offer amounts of $900m. A lot of retail liquidity gone into FD’s which seem to be offering 2.6% to 2.88% etc. So this month likely allotment limit will be high. At least $20-30k.
Also, NEXT month’s offered SSB will have better rates. Currently, the 10 year SGS bond is reporting daily yields of 3.05 to 3.16 for sept 2022. So, if this carries on for the rest of sept, next month’s SSB will likely have an overall rate of 3.09 to 3.12%. Roughly. Allotment for this issue is likely to be low.

Cannot look at ssb allocation in silo.

other competing investment vehicle will impact demand too

 

[hwckhs]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

 

[reddevil0728]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

woah.

 

[AlvinDj]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

Give this man a medal for his efforts..

 

[hwckhs]

Give this man a medal for his efforts..

Thanks.

Actually, I get all inspirations and knowledge from this thread. I see some difficulties/problems that ppl face can be solved with IT. So, I help to provide a solution.

 

[AlvinDj]

Thanks.

Actually, I get all inspirations and knowledge from this thread. I see some difficulties/problems that ppl face can be solved with IT. So, I help to provide a solution.

Cheers bro..

May I ask how do you derive the next tranche's projection? Through the daily average or?

So to know I wouldn't need to update and depend my spreadsheet anymore lol..

 

[reddevil0728]

Cheers bro..

May I ask how do you derive the next tranche's projection? Through the daily average or?

So to know I wouldn't need to update and depend my spreadsheet anymore lol..

It should be follow the formula

 

[hwckhs]

Cheers bro..

May I ask how do you derive the next tranche's projection? Through the daily average or?

So to know I wouldn't need to update and depend my spreadsheet anymore lol..

It's the same as what @reddevil0728 has kept posting in this thread (how to fish). Go to the MAS website to get daily 1, 2, 5, 10-year yields then average it. This provides the input to the calculations. What the website does that is difficult to do by hand, is to interpolate the remaining 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 yields using hermit spline function and to calculate using the remaining formulas. I learnt some of these maths only after embarking on this project.

 

[reddevil0728]

It's the same as what @reddevil0728 has kept posting in this thread (how to fish). Go to the MAS website to get daily 1, 2, 5, 10-year yields then average it. This provides the input to the calculations. What the website does that is difficult to do by hand, is to interpolate the remaining 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 yields using hermit spline function and to calculate using the remaining formulas. I learnt some of these maths only after embarking on this project.

interesting you figured out how the interpolate the in between?

back testing is spot on? just curious

 

[AlvinDj]

It's the same as what @reddevil0728 has kept posting in this thread (how to fish). Go to the MAS website to get daily 1, 2, 5, 10-year yields then average it. This provides the input to the calculations. What the website does that is difficult to do by hand, is to interpolate the remaining 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 yields using hermit spline function and to calculate using the remaining formulas. I learnt some of these maths only after embarking on this project.

Yeap I thought so too! But just reconfirming.. Alrighty then it's a good project!

 

[hwckhs]

interesting you figured out how the interpolate the in between?

back testing is spot on? just curious

The hermite spline function allows MAS to fine-tune the shape of the curve. So, even though I also use hermite spline, I can't produce the exact same yield curve upfront before MAS' announcement of the new SSB issue. (I can only do it after the fact, and there is no point in doing that.)

The Past SSB Projections page shows accuracy of back-testing at 98-99%. I backtested and fine-tuned a lot. That's the highest accuracy I can get.

 

[juelim]

This month’s SSB overall rate only 2.75%. Plus first year only 2.6%. Not that attractive. Also one of the highest offer amounts of $900m. A lot of retail liquidity gone into FD’s which seem to be offering 2.6% to 2.88% etc. So this month likely allotment limit will be high. At least $20-30k.
Also, NEXT month’s offered SSB will have better rates. Currently, the 10 year SGS bond is reporting daily yields of 3.05 to 3.16 for sept 2022. So, if this carries on for the rest of sept, next month’s SSB will likely have an overall rate of 3.09 to 3.12%. Roughly. Allotment for this issue is likely to be low.

Agree. I will skip this round. The interest rate is not appealing, given that FDs are offering higher rates and the next month's interest is likely to be >3%.

Too may instruments enticing the savers these few days, from FD, T-Bills and SSBs.

 

[luvpraline]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

Brilliant! Thank you for doing this

 

[Froggyman]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

Thank you for the sharing.

 

[maumu]

I added a new feature called Swap SSB to my website.

For example, if you have $10,000 worth of SBFEB22, you can view the monetary impact of swapping to the new SSB at: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBFEB22/10000 .

Please let me know if you have any feedback.

thanks for adding that, but can I ask how do we interpret the chart when comparing two SSBs from different years?

e.g. SBJUL18 and SBOCT22

SBJUL18 would be in its 4th year already so while we can compare 4th - 10th year of SBJUL18 with 1st to 7th year of SBOCT22 then what about 8th - 10th year of SBOCT22 (which happens to be the higher-end rates for that issuance?)

 

[jayou8]

thanks for adding that, but can I ask how do we interpret the chart when comparing two SSBs from different years?

e.g. SBJUL18 and SBOCT22

SBJUL18 would be in its 4th year already so while we can compare 4th - 10th year of SBJUL18 with 1st to 7th year of SBOCT22 then what about 8th - 10th year of SBOCT22 (which happens to be the higher-end rates for that issuance?)

Firstly what a great job done by hwckhs! If I understand correctly, you can only compare with what you have on hand currently. So based on SBJUL18, you can only compare till it matures in JUN28.

You will get back the principal on maturity and you will not know what is the interest rates will be then for the next term till SBOCT22 matures.

However based on current forward rates, you can assume that you can reinvest your principal you get back at the same rate as the SBOCT22 from JUN28 onwards and hence nett nett there is no P&L.

However, if your view is that after SBJUL18 matures and you can re-invest in close to zero rates, then you need to calculate if it is worth swapping to SBOCT22 as you can lock in the rates now.

 

[hwckhs]

Firstly what a great job done by hwckhs! If I understand correctly, you can only compare with what you have on hand currently. So based on SBJUL18, you can only compare till it matures in JUN28.

You will get back the principal on maturity and you will not know what is the interest rates will be then for the next term till SBOCT22 matures.

However based on current forward rates, you can assume that you can reinvest your principal you get back at the same rate as the SBOCT22 from JUN28 onwards and hence nett nett there is no P&L.

However, if your view is that after SBJUL18 matures and you can re-invest in close to zero rates, then you need to calculate if it is worth swapping to SBOCT22 as you can lock in the rates now.

Thank you. Yes, we can only compare what's available. You answered better than I would have.

thanks for adding that, but can I ask how do we interpret the chart when comparing two SSBs from different years?

e.g. SBJUL18 and SBOCT22

SBJUL18 would be in its 4th year already so while we can compare 4th - 10th year of SBJUL18 with 1st to 7th year of SBOCT22 then what about 8th - 10th year of SBOCT22 (which happens to be the higher-end rates for that issuance?)

Actually, I don't intend to give advice through the website. The charts are supposed to be self-explanatory and users are to make their own decisions. However, I added some guidance below the charts to help ppl interpret them. Perhaps spend some time to read them?

If you try the page with various existing SSB, you will see that the charts can be in various shapes. You would focus on the Cumulative Profit/Loss chart. The result it shows can be broadly categorized into:

1. outright good (strongly positive across all coming year)
2. outright bad (strongly negative across all coming year)
3. weak (small P&L) or mixed (profit in some years, but loss in others, depending on your holding period)

Using SBJUL18 and $10k as an example: http://www.ilovessb.com/swap/SBJUL18/10000 , I personally would not swap because:

• Up until Jul 2023, the profit only gets as high as $4, but if you consider the cost of swapping ($2 to redeem, another $2 to apply), then there is no profit at all.
• From Aug 2023 onwards, you lose more and more. It doesn't make sense to swap SBJUL18 with SBOCT22.

 

[vsvs24]

The hermite spline function allows MAS to fine-tune the shape of the curve. So, even though I also use hermite spline, I can't produce the exact same yield curve upfront before MAS' announcement of the new SSB issue. (I can only do it after the fact, and there is no point in doing that.)

The Past SSB Projections page shows accuracy of back-testing at 98-99%. I backtested and fine-tuned a lot. That's the highest accuracy I can get.

Great job. Thanks for the effort. Save us a lot of time.

Is first year adjusted as well ? Backtested against last month's ?