2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[aurvandil]

No need to be hotter. Slower rate of decline will cause a panic selling already.

The CPI next Tuesday is not tradable. Can hockey stick in either direction.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Fully agree the part about confirmation bias. I find that his management a bad trades is his biggest weakness. Instead of cutting and looking for a place to get back in, he holds on and hopes for the best. This is what led to the forced selling of his BABA position near the low to avoid margin call.

The reason why he got into margin calls was because he had anchored a price and thought Baba would never fall below that (i think was around $150 range)

 

[aurvandil]

The reason why he got into margin calls was because he had anchored a price and thought Baba would never fall below that (i think was around $150 range)

I know what you mean. And when the price breached the level he kept adjusting it down, hoping that there will be a rebound because "the fundamentals were in his favour".

 

[churnmaster]

"doomed", "crash", "lost all my money" are typical youtube clickbait titles

Yup, negative words attract more viewers.

 

[edwardZ]

next week is filled with inflation-related scheduled news mainly
tue - US CPI
wed - US retail sales
thurs - US PPI

get ready your positions

 

[zzTiny]

The inflation calculation goal post got changed though. The recent Dec, Nov also got revised up. Next week, the CPI probably will be in-line or even lower, kek.

The current spx price? Getting even more expensive n expensive as time pass.

 

[tatose]

If you want to time the SPX to conduct intraday or swing trades, good luck.
Think futures > stocks right now for such trades.

If you want to time the SPX to long ETFs for years, I think you better don't bother timing.

Kinda open my eyes abit, really need to let go of some SGX stuff...

 

[zzTiny]

The problem is the current spx price is so ridiculous that it don't make sense. Even if I want to suka suka jump in for long term, this donkey needs to be at least 10-15% down from here. And I am being wildly optimistic already. Some folks are clamoring for a 20% down which might jolly well happened. Then again, nobody can know how long the market can be fked up.

How do you even jump in this hole with two eyes close? Anybody here invested in dot com, what do you feel now?

Nvm about valuation already. If you look at US10yo yield, it been skyrocketing yet the spx is still in lalaland? DXY also chioning but the spx sleeping? Crapto kena pooped but spx in party mode? Lets use technical astrology, the RSI is already at overbought for daily and weekly. The MACD indicator that all astronomer deem it the best has also shown a overbought. I really cannot suka suka jump in, man, even if I am a bull. All bears are actually bulls, if you think about it.

 

[DevilPlate]

The problem is the current spx price is so ridiculous that it don't make sense. Even if I want to suka suka jump in for long term, this donkey needs to be at least 10-15% down from here. And I am being wildly optimistic already. Some folks are clamoring for a 20% down which might jolly well happened. Then again, nobody can know how long the market can be fked up.

How do you even jump in this hole with two eyes close? Anybody here invested in dot com, what do you feel now?

Nvm about valuation already. If you look at US10yo yield, it been skyrocketing yet the spx is still in lalaland? DXY also chioning but the spx sleeping? Crapto kena pooped but spx in party mode? Lets use technical astrology, the RSI is already at overbought for daily and weekly. The MACD indicator that all astronomer deem it the best has also shown a overbought. I really cannot suka suka jump in, man, even if I am a bull. All bears are actually bulls, if you think about it.

Yes, gone though 97 & 2000s period (I only buy SGX stocks at that time and no STI ETF to DCA lol) was a painful experience. A lot of folks I know completely stop looking at stock market.

STI took about 18 months to bottom during 97 AFC.

 

[jacky5297]

The problem is the current spx price is so ridiculous that it don't make sense. Even if I want to suka suka jump in for long term, this donkey needs to be at least 10-15% down from here. And I am being wildly optimistic already. Some folks are clamoring for a 20% down which might jolly well happened. Then again, nobody can know how long the market can be fked up.

How do you even jump in this hole with two eyes close? Anybody here invested in dot com, what do you feel now?

Nvm about valuation already. If you look at US10yo yield, it been skyrocketing yet the spx is still in lalaland? DXY also chioning but the spx sleeping? Crapto kena pooped but spx in party mode? Lets use technical astrology, the RSI is already at overbought for daily and weekly. The MACD indicator that all astronomer deem it the best has also shown a overbought. I really cannot suka suka jump in, man, even if I am a bull. All bears are actually bulls, if you think about it.

there are 1000 reasons why we shouldn't invest, and the same can goes to why we should all in now.

 

[DevilPlate]

Newer investors that started investing in US stocks since GFC will most likely think stonks will only go up long term.

 

[zzTiny]

Is ok. I am just gathering my thoughts again. This is actually my first bear market. And in the future, there will definitely be alot more. Actually, I am glad. I am glad that I am experiencing a bear market so early in my life. It really change the way I think and it taught me patience and discipline. I may be wrong but this is not yet an expensive lesson.

 

[stanlawj]

The problem is the current spx price is so ridiculous that it don't make sense. Even if I want to suka suka jump in for long term, this donkey needs to be at least 10-15% down from here. And I am being wildly optimistic already. Some folks are clamoring for a 20% down which might jolly well happened. Then again, nobody can know how long the market can be fked up.

How do you even jump in this hole with two eyes close? Anybody here invested in dot com, what do you feel now?

Nvm about valuation already. If you look at US10yo yield, it been skyrocketing yet the spx is still in lalaland? DXY also chioning but the spx sleeping? Crapto kena pooped but spx in party mode? Lets use technical astrology, the RSI is already at overbought for daily and weekly. The MACD indicator that all astronomer deem it the best has also shown a overbought. I really cannot suka suka jump in, man, even if I am a bull. All bears are actually bulls, if you think about it.

The options market is lifting the SP500 index. So the price you see now is overvalued. It's now in traders' territory, not an investors market. Buy and sell in one or two days. No long term holds because the reversal can take place anytime. ARK funds have also started selling NVDA yesterday.

 

[tatose]

The problem is the current spx price is so ridiculous that it don't make sense. Even if I want to suka suka jump in for long term, this donkey needs to be at least 10-15% down from here. And I am being wildly optimistic already. Some folks are clamoring for a 20% down which might jolly well happened. Then again, nobody can know how long the market can be fked up.

How do you even jump in this hole with two eyes close? Anybody here invested in dot com, what do you feel now?

Nvm about valuation already. If you look at US10yo yield, it been skyrocketing yet the spx is still in lalaland? DXY also chioning but the spx sleeping? Crapto kena pooped but spx in party mode? Lets use technical astrology, the RSI is already at overbought for daily and weekly. The MACD indicator that all astronomer deem it the best has also shown a overbought. I really cannot suka suka jump in, man, even if I am a bull. All bears are actually bulls, if you think about it.

dot.com bubble is a great generalisation, alot of great companies rose up during that bubble and there has been much technological progress since then. Think of it as an experimentation.

SPX is definitely at a premium right now, but it is at a premium because of the amount of liquidity in the market. Excessive liquidity is also what the Feds are trying to address via the interest hikes.

Overbought/Oversold is just a technical indicator and does not reflect the macroeconomic fundamentals you need to describe the US/Developed World markets.

If equity is not great on the short term, you can get into bonds or MM or something else. The problem is that some people are bought into the idea that equity is the single best instrument.

 

[DevilPlate]

China started massive QE while US on QT (refer to 3:30 in the video)

Can we see HST hitting $1 soon lol

 

[wtaps300]

Hello everyone, new to the board. Adding my view for next Tue:

Every trader and his/her dog will be looking at Tue CPI number.

Since Jan NFP numbers, bond/treasury yields have been ticking higher, US10YR at 3.73%, the highest since 3 Jan. And stocks, including tech heavy Nasdaq, have been holding remarkably well. One side has to give, and my best guess is we will find it out on Tue.

Tue's Jan CPI, headline est is +6.2% YoY, expected to slow from Dec +6.5%. Recent chatter suggests we may see a quickening pace though. Regardless, we just trade the reaction thereafter.

Interestingly, S&P500 has tested the top range of the 31 Jan bar (~ 4020 to 4080) and held. 4080-ish also coincides with resistance levels in Early Dec, which were broken on 2 Feb, and now sees a re-test. We would like to see a bounce ideally from here to confirm bullishness/trendiness.

Separately, on NASDAQ COMP, it would seem we have another 200 points to fall from here before it can test a similarly important 11,500 level. The 31 Jan bars are higher-than-normal volume bars for both indexes.

So let's be patient on Tue. If we do get a larger-than-expected CPI print and markets sell off, let's watch those key levels - lows on 31 Jan bars. If they somehow can hold, then the bulls do have a better control of the stock market.

 

[edwardZ]

CPI came in above expectations and force some wild swings with USD holding out after its retracement down and indices banging against their resistance. Looks like the dealers are not ready to move the charts yet and waiting for US retail sales later today?

 

[limster]

there should be more sharing of actual trades/investments .... anyone found something good and cheap to buy???

Valuations are a bit expensive for me at the moment, though I guess I will just force myself to to my regular DCA of world ETFs. I will probably be putting more into FD/T-Bill as long as close to 4%.

 

[1.koln]

there should be more sharing of actual trades/investments .... anyone found something good and cheap to buy???

Valuations are a bit expensive for me at the moment, though I guess I will just force myself to to my regular DCA of world ETFs. I will probably be putting more into FD/T-Bill as long as close to 4%.

Google seems to be at an attractive valuation although it might continue to trend down due to ChatGPT

OCBC seems to be discounted quite a bit compared to the other 2 big Singapore banks even though their recent financial results are on par

 

[boringLife-]

Seems like whatever I touched will go down!

I have EIMI, GRAB, LCID and recently 2801.HK. All of them going south

My latest is using OA to buy into First Sentier Fund. This will probably go badly as well.

The only one that is green is IWDA. But it is only up about 10% over 4 years of DCA. Underperforming OA on an annual basis.